Using forecast sensitivity patterns to improve future forecast skill

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 123, Issue 540, 1997, Pages 1035-1053

  Pu, Zhao Xia ^a,b,c   Kalnay, Eugenia ^a   Derber, John C ^a   Sela, Joseph G ^a  

^a Natl Centers Environ Prediction   (United States)

^b CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

^c LANZHOU UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

4 D VAR; Adjoint model; Data assimilation; Forecast errors; Numerical weather prediction; Sensitivity

Indexed keywords

ADJOINT MODEL; FORECAST SKILL; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0031458916     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.54011     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Andersson, E., Pailleux, J., Thépaut, J.-N., Eyre, J. R., McNally, A. P., Kelly, G. A. and Courtier, P. 1994 Use of cloud-cleared radiances in three/four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 627-653
2. Andersson, E., Courtier, P., Gaffard, C., Haseler, J., Rabier, F., Undén, P. and Vasiljevic, D. 1996 '3-D VAR - the new operational analysis schemes'. Pp. 2-5 in ECMWF Newsletter No. 71
3. Buizza, R. 1993 'Impact of a simple vertical diffusion scheme and of the optimization time interval on optimal unstable structure'. ECMWF Technical Memorandum, No. 192 1994 Sensitivity of optimal unstable structures. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 429-451
4. Buizza, R. 1993 'Impact of a simple vertical diffusion scheme and of the optimization time interval on optimal unstable structure'. ECMWF Technical Memorandum, No. 192 1994 Sensitivity of optimal unstable structures. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 429-451
5. Buizza, R., Gelaro, R., Molteni, F. and Palmer, T. N. 1995 'Predictability studies with high resolution singular vectors'. ECMWF Technical Memorandum. No. 219
6. Cohn, S. E. and Todling, R. 1996 Approximate Kaiman filters for stable and unstable dynamics. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 74, 63-75
7. Courtier, P. 1995 'Variational methods'. Pp. 25-30 in Proceedings of the 2nd WMO international symposium on assimilation of observation in meteorology and oceanography, Tokyo, March 1995. WMO
8. Courtier, P., Derber, J., Errico, R., Louis, J.-F. and Vukicevic, T. 1993 Important literature on the use of adjoint, variational methods and the Kalman filter in meteorology. Tellus, 45A, 342-357
9. Courtier, P., Thépaut, J.-N. and Hollingsworth, A. 1994 A strategy for operational implementation of 4-D VAR using an incremental approach. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 1367-1387
10. Derber, J. C. 1987 Variational four dimensional analysis using quasi-geostrophic constraints. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 998-1008 1989 A variational continuous assimilation technique. Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 2437-2446
11. Derber, J. C. 1987 Variational four dimensional analysis using quasi-geostrophic constraints. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 998-1008 1989 A variational continuous assimilation technique. Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 2437-2446
12. Derber, J. C., Parrish, D. F. and Lord, S. J. 1991 The new global operational analysis system at the National Meteorological Center. Weather and Forecasting, 6, 538-547
13. Derber, J. C., Parrish, D. F., Wu, W.-S., Pu, Z.-X. and Rizvi, S. R. H. 1994 'Improvements to the operational SSI global analysis system'. Pp. 149-150 in Preprints of the 10th conference on numerical weather prediction. American Meteorological Society, USA
14. Errico, R. M. and Vukicevic, T. 1992 Sensitivity analysis using an adjoint of the PSU-NCAR mesoscale model. Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 2437-2446
15. Errico, R. M., Vukicevic, T. and Raeder, K. 1993 Examination of the accuracy of a tangent linear model. Tellus, 45A, 462-477
16. Gill, P. E., Murray, W. and Wright, M. H. 1981 Practical optimization. Academic Press, London
17. Huang, X.-Y., Gustafsson, N. and Källén, E. 1996 'A poor man's 4-D VAR: The use of the adjoint model in an intermittent data assimilation system'. Pp. 132-134 in Preprints of the 11th conference on numerical weather prediction. American Meteorological Society, USA
18. Kalnay, E. and Toth, Z. 1994 'Removing growing errors in the analysis'. Pp. 212-215 in Preprints of the 11th conference on numerical weather prediction. American Meteorological Society, USA
19. Lacarra, J. F. and Talagrand, O. 1988 Short range evolution of small perturbation in a barotropic model. Tellus, 40A, 81-95
20. Le Dimet, F. X. and Talagrand, O. 1986 Variational algorithms for analysis and assimilation of meteorological observations: Theoretical aspects. Tellus, 38A, 91-110
21. Navon, I. M., Zou, X., Derber, J. C. and Sela, J. G. 1992 Variational data assimilation with an adiabatic version of the NCEP spectral model. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1479-1502
22. Parrish, D. F. and Derber, J. C. 1992 The National Meterological Center's global spectral statistical interpolation analysis system. Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 1747-1763
23. Parrish, D. F., Derber, J., Purser, J., Wu, W.-S. and Pu, Z.-X. 1996 The NCEP global analysis system: recent improvements and future plans. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, (in press)
24. Pu, Z.-X. 1996 'Sensitivity analysis and data assimilation using an adjoint system of the NCEP operational global spectral model'. Ph.D dissertation. Lanzhou University of P. R. China. (Available from NCEP, USA)
25. Pu, Z.-X., Kalnay, E., Sela, J. and Szunyogh, I. 1996a Sensitivity of forecast error to initial conditions with a quasiinverse linear method. Mon. Weather Rev., (in press)
26. Pu, Z.-X., Kalnay, E., Derber, J. and Sela, J. 1996b 'Using past forecast error to improve the future forecast skill'. Pp. 142-143 in Preprints of 11th conference on numerical weather prediction, American Meteorological Society, USA
27. Rabier, F., Klinker, E., Courtier, P. and Hollinesworth, A. 1996 Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 121-150
28. Talagrand, O. and Courtier, P. 1987 Variational assimilation of meteorological observations with the adjoint vorticity equation. I: Theory. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 113, 1311-1328
29. Thiebaux, H. J. and Morone, L. L. 1990 Short-term systematic errors in global forecasts: their estimation and removal. Tellus, 42A, 209-229
30. Thone, I. and Mahrt, L. 1986 A simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer: sensitivity to surface evaporation, Boundary-Layer Meteorol., 37, 129-148
31. Vukicevic, T. 1991 Nonlinear and linear evolution of initial forecast error. Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 1602-1611
32. Zou, X., Navon, I. M. and Le Dimet, F. X. 1992 An optimal nudging data assimilation scheme using parameter estimation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 118, 1163-1186
33. Zupanski, M. 1993 Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasioperational forecasting environment. Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 2396-2408 1995 An iterative approximation to the sensitivity in calculus of variations. Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 3590-3604
34. Zupanski, M. 1993 Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasioperational forecasting environment. Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 2396-2408 1995 An iterative approximation to the sensitivity in calculus of variations. Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 3590-3604
35. Zupanski, D. and Mesinger, F. 1995 Four-dimensional variational assimilation of precipitation data. Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 1112-1127
36. Zupanski, M. and Zupanski, D. 1996 'A quasi-operational application of a regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation'. Pp. 94-95 in Preprints of the 11th conference on numerical weather prediction. American Meteorological Society, USA