Elections and political development in Central Asia

Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics

Volumn 13, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 28-53

  Anderson, John ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CIVIL SOCIETY; DEMOCRACY; ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY; POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT; POST-COMMUNISM;

ASIA, (CENTRAL);

EID: 0031398039     PISSN: 13523279     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13523279708415359     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 7 Dec. 1994.
2. Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 16 Dec. 1995.
3. Hagopian continues 'in my view patterns of politics established in periods of transition have a very real and strong potential to become semi-permanent features of the political landscape': F. Hagopian, '"Democracy by Undemocratic Means"? Elites, Political Pacts, and Regime Transition in Brazil', Comparative Political Studies, Vol.23, No.2 (July 1990), p. 148.
4. On some of the dilemmas facing the newly independent states see Martha Brill Olcott, 'Central Asia's Catapult to Independence', Foreign Affairs, Summer 1992, pp. 109-30; A. Hyman, 'Moving Out of Moscow's Orbit: The Outlook for Central Asia', International Affairs, Vol.69, No.2 (1993), pp.289-304; Boris Rumer, 'The Gathering Storm in Central Asia', Orbis (Winter 1993), pp.89-105.
5. On some of the dilemmas facing the newly independent states see Martha Brill Olcott, 'Central Asia's Catapult to Independence', Foreign Affairs, Summer 1992, pp. 109-30; A. Hyman, 'Moving Out of Moscow's Orbit: The Outlook for Central Asia', International Affairs, Vol.69, No.2 (1993), pp.289-304; Boris Rumer, 'The Gathering Storm in Central Asia', Orbis (Winter 1993), pp.89-105.
6. On some of the dilemmas facing the newly independent states see Martha Brill Olcott, 'Central Asia's Catapult to Independence', Foreign Affairs, Summer 1992, pp. 109-30; A. Hyman, 'Moving Out of Moscow's Orbit: The Outlook for Central Asia', International Affairs, Vol.69, No.2 (1993), pp.289-304; Boris Rumer, 'The Gathering Storm in Central Asia', Orbis (Winter 1993), pp.89-105.
7. Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 13 Dec. 1995; consciously or not, the creation of appointed senators followed the examples of General Pinochet's 1980 Constitution in Chile, which allowed for a minimum of nine selected senators, and Park Chung Hee's Yushin Constitution (1972) in South Korea, which gave the president the right to nominate one-third of the National Assembly. The latter was also justified in part by the need to maintain tight political control so as to push through economic change, although the actual impact was somewhat more ambiguous: Chung-in Moon and Yong-cheol Kim, 'A Circle of Paradox: Developoment, Politics and Democracy in South Korea', in A. Leftwich (ed.), Democracy and Development (Cambridge: Polity, 1996), pp. 143-4.
8. Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 13 Dec. 1995; consciously or not, the creation of appointed senators followed the examples of General Pinochet's 1980 Constitution in Chile, which allowed for a minimum of nine selected senators, and Park Chung Hee's Yushin Constitution (1972) in South Korea, which gave the president the right to nominate one-third of the National Assembly. The latter was also justified in part by the need to maintain tight political control so as to push through economic change, although the actual impact was somewhat more ambiguous: Chung-in Moon and Yong-cheol Kim, 'A Circle of Paradox: Developoment, Politics and Democracy in South Korea', in A. Leftwich (ed.), Democracy and Development (Cambridge: Polity, 1996), pp. 143-4.
9. D. Sadyrbaev, 'Chest' imeyu!', Res publika, 24 Jan.1996.
10. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 11 and 26 Feb. 1994.
11. The text of the electoral law can be found in Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 30 Sept. 1995.
12. B. Pannier, 'The Shrinking Shores of Central Asia's "Island of Democracy"', Transition, 5 April 1996, pp.56-60.
13. Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 10, 14 and 16 March 1995.
14. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 4 Oct. 1995.
15. Res publika, 9 Jan. 1996.
16. See the constitutional court ruling in Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 16 March 1995.
17. Narodnaya gazeta, 9 Nov. 1994.
18. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 24 Feb. 1995.
19. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 31 Dec. 1995.
20. Russian and German international observers in February 1995 also noted that in the southern Osh and Jalalabad regions, with their relatively small Slavic populations, whole streets and apartment blocks of Slavs, Germans and Tatars failed to vote: Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 14 Feb. 1995.
21. Guy Hermet, 'State Controlled Elections: A Framework', in Guy Hermet, Richard Rose and Alain Rouquié (eds.), Elections Without Choice (London: Macmillan, 1978), pp.3-4.
22. For statistics on the make-up of these bodies see Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 March and 12 April 1995; Segodnya, 8 March 1994; Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 17 March 1995; Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 4 March 1995; Segodnya, 31 Dec. 1995 ; in Kyrgyzstan this over-representation of the titular nationality was also clear in the March 1994 elections: see A.D. Nazarov and S.I. Nikolaev, 'Russkie v Kirgizii: yest' li alternativa iskhodu?', in A.I. Ginzburg (ed.), Russkie v novom zarubezh'e (Moscow, 1995), pp.31-2.
23. For statistics on the make-up of these bodies see Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 March and 12 April 1995; Segodnya, 8 March 1994; Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 17 March 1995; Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 4 March 1995; Segodnya, 31 Dec. 1995 ; in Kyrgyzstan this over-representation of the titular nationality was also clear in the March 1994 elections: see A.D. Nazarov and S.I. Nikolaev, 'Russkie v Kirgizii: yest' li alternativa iskhodu?', in A.I. Ginzburg (ed.), Russkie v novom zarubezh'e (Moscow, 1995), pp.31-2.
24. For statistics on the make-up of these bodies see Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 March and 12 April 1995; Segodnya, 8 March 1994; Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 17 March 1995; Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 4 March 1995; Segodnya, 31 Dec. 1995 ; in Kyrgyzstan this over-representation of the titular nationality was also clear in the March 1994 elections: see A.D. Nazarov and S.I. Nikolaev, 'Russkie v Kirgizii: yest' li alternativa iskhodu?', in A.I. Ginzburg (ed.), Russkie v novom zarubezh'e (Moscow, 1995), pp.31-2.
25. For statistics on the make-up of these bodies see Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 March and 12 April 1995; Segodnya, 8 March 1994; Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 17 March 1995; Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 4 March 1995; Segodnya, 31 Dec. 1995 ; in Kyrgyzstan this over-representation of the titular nationality was also clear in the March 1994 elections: see A.D. Nazarov and S.I. Nikolaev, 'Russkie v Kirgizii: yest' li alternativa iskhodu?', in A.I. Ginzburg (ed.), Russkie v novom zarubezh'e (Moscow, 1995), pp.31-2.
26. For statistics on the make-up of these bodies see Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 March and 12 April 1995; Segodnya, 8 March 1994; Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 17 March 1995; Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 4 March 1995; Segodnya, 31 Dec. 1995 ; in Kyrgyzstan this over-representation of the titular nationality was also clear in the March 1994 elections: see A.D. Nazarov and S.I. Nikolaev, 'Russkie v Kirgizii: yest' li alternativa iskhodu?', in A.I. Ginzburg (ed.), Russkie v novom zarubezh'e (Moscow, 1995), pp.31-2.
27. For statistics on the make-up of these bodies see Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2 March and 12 April 1995; Segodnya, 8 March 1994; Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 17 March 1995; Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 4 March 1995; Segodnya, 31 Dec. 1995 ; in Kyrgyzstan this over-representation of the titular nationality was also clear in the March 1994 elections: see A.D. Nazarov and S.I. Nikolaev, 'Russkie v Kirgizii: yest' li alternativa iskhodu?', in A.I. Ginzburg (ed.), Russkie v novom zarubezh'e (Moscow, 1995), pp.31-2.
28. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 24 Feb. 1995.
29. Although the context, and thus the parallel, is not exact, this permissive attitude towards regionalism in the election of parliamentary deputies appears to bear out comments made by Shugart and Carey in their discussion of the relationship between presidential power, regionalism and weak party systems: see M. Shugart and J. Carey, Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992), pp. 168-205.
30. M. Zhanuzakova, 'Natsional'naya demokratiya: illyuzii i real'nost', Res publika, 19 March 1996.
31. The text of the Constitution as finally adopted can be found in Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 8 Sept. 1995.
32. The text of the proposed constitutional changes can be found in Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 9-10 and 27-28 Jan. 1996, with critical reviews and commentaries in Res publika, 16 and 23 Jan. 1996.
33. The text of the proposed constitutional changes can be found in Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 9-10 and 27-28 Jan. 1996, with critical reviews and commentaries in Res publika, 16 and 23 Jan. 1996.
34. BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, quoting Kyrgyz radio, 7 Jan. 1996; this charge was bitterly rejected by deputy Tursunbai Bakir uulu, in Res publika, 6 Feb. 1996.
35. BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, quoting Kyrgyz radio, 7 Jan. 1996; this charge was bitterly rejected by deputy Tursunbai Bakir uulu, in Res publika, 6 Feb. 1996.
36. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 30-31 Jan. 1996, where it is also suggested that even with these changes the president will have less personal power than other CIS heads of state.
37. Hermet, 'Preface', in Elections Without Choice, op. cit.
38. J.D. Barkan and J.J. Okumu, 'Semi-Competitive Elections, Elections, Clientelism and Political Recruitment in a No-Party State: The Case of Kenya', in Elections without Choice, p.99.
39. Adam Przeworski, 'Democracy as a Contingent Outcome of Conflicts', in J. Elster and R. Slagstad (eds.), Constitutionalism and Democracy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), pp.61-3.
40. A useful comparison might be made with India where the British, sometimes inadvertently, laid the foundations for the emergence of a liberal democratic order through the use of democratic rhetoric and the creation of quasi-democratic institutions: R.Sisson, 'Culture and Democratization in India', in L. Diamond (ed.), Political Culture and Democracy in Developing Countries (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1994), pp.29-58.
41. For more detail on Turkmenistan see John Anderson, 'Authoritarian Political Development in Central Asia: The Case of Turkmenistan', Central Asian Survey, Vol.14, No.4 (1995), pp.509-27.
42. Turkmenskaya iskra, 17 Jan. 1994.
43. Ibid., 13 Dec. 1994.
44. See his comments in Moskovskie novosti, 31 Jan. 1993, and Turkmenskaya iskra, 30 April 1992.
45. See his comments in Moskovskie novosti, 31 Jan. 1993, and Turkmenskaya iskra, 30 April 1992.
46. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 9 July 1992.
47. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 9 Oct. 1993.
48. J. Linz and A. Valenzuela (eds.), The Failure of Presidential Democracy: Comparative Perspectives (Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press, 1994), Vol.1, esp. pp.3-47.
49. Martha Brill Olcott, 'Nursultan Nazarbaev and the Balancing Act of State Building in Kazakhstan', in Timothy Colton and Robert Tucker (eds.), Patterns in Post-Soviet Leadership (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1995), p.179.
50. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 12 Jan. 1996.
51. Izvestiya, 17 July 1991; Nezavisimaya gazeta, 9 Oct. 1993.
52. Izvestiya, 17 July 1991; Nezavisimaya gazeta, 9 Oct. 1993.
53. Compare Chung-in Moon and Yong-cheol Kim, 'A Circle of Paradox'; K. Jayasuniya, 'The Political Economy of Democratization', in D. Bell et al., Towards Illiberal Democracy in Pacific Asia (Aldershot: Macmillan, 1995), pp.107-33.
54. Compare Chung-in Moon and Yong-cheol Kim, 'A Circle of Paradox'; K. Jayasuniya, 'The Political Economy of Democratization', in D. Bell et al., Towards Illiberal Democracy in Pacific Asia (Aldershot: Macmillan, 1995), pp.107-33.
55. Adrian Leftwich, On the Primacy of Politics in Development', in Leftwich, Democracy and Development, pp.3-24. Compare Abbas Pourgerami, Development and Democracy in the Third World (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1991); G. Sorensen, Democracy and Democractization (Boulder, CO. Westview, 1993), pp.63-90.
56. Adrian Leftwich, On the Primacy of Politics in Development', in Leftwich, Democracy and Development, pp.3-24. Compare Abbas Pourgerami, Development and Democracy in the Third World (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1991); G. Sorensen, Democracy and Democractization (Boulder, CO. Westview, 1993), pp.63-90.
57. Adrian Leftwich, On the Primacy of Politics in Development', in Leftwich, Democracy and Development, pp.3-24. Compare Abbas Pourgerami, Development and Democracy in the Third World (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1991); G. Sorensen, Democracy and Democractization (Boulder, CO. Westview, 1993), pp.63-90.
58. This section reflects preliminary thoughts on civil society in Central Asia which I hope to develop more fully in a later study.
59. On civil society in the Middle East see the articles devoted to this subject in a special issue of the Middle East Journal, Vol.47, No.2 (Spring 1993), and the more extensive coverage provided by some of the same authors in A.R. Norton, Civil Society in the Middle East (Leiden, New York and Cologne, 1995). In his Introduction (pp. 8-9) Norton notes that from the 1960s to the 1980s the number of associations in the Middle East grew from around 20,000 to 70,000.
60. On civil society in the Middle East see the articles devoted to this subject in a special issue of the Middle East Journal, Vol.47, No.2 (Spring 1993), and the more extensive coverage provided by some of the same authors in A.R. Norton, Civil Society in the Middle East (Leiden, New York and Cologne, 1995). In his Introduction (pp. 8-9) Norton notes that from the 1960s to the 1980s the number of associations in the Middle East grew from around 20,000 to 70,000.
61. For a discussion of the problems of defining civil society and the distinction between civil and political society see Gordon White, 'Civil Society, Democratization and Development: (i) Clearing the Analytical Ground', Democratization, Vol.1, No.3 (1994), pp.375-90. Compare Iliya Harik, 'Pluralism in the Arab World', Journal of Democracy, Vol.5, No.3 (1994), pp.43-56.
62. For a discussion of the problems of defining civil society and the distinction between civil and political society see Gordon White, 'Civil Society, Democratization and Development: (i) Clearing the Analytical Ground', Democratization, Vol.1, No.3 (1994), pp.375-90. Compare Iliya Harik, 'Pluralism in the Arab World', Journal of Democracy, Vol.5, No.3 (1994), pp.43-56.
63. S. Poliakov (ed.), Everyday Islam: Religion and Tradition in Rural Central Asia (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1992).
64. Ernest Gellner, 'The Importance of Being Modular', in J. Hall (ed.), Civil Society: Theory, History, Comparison (Cambridge: Polity, 1995), pp.32-55.
65. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 24 Aug. and 9 Sept. 1994.
66. The paper may have added insult to injury when in the autumn of 1996 it started noting at the bottom of each front page the length of time until Akaev left office.
67. Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 10 April 1993.
68. On emerging political parties in Tajikistan see G. Kosach, 'Tajikistan: Political Parties in an Inchaote National Space', in Y. Roi (ed.), Muslim Eurasia: Conflicting Legacies (London: Cass, 1995), pp. 123-42.
69. Compare Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 7 Dec. 1994, and Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 1 July 1995.
70. Compare Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 7 Dec. 1994, and Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 1 July 1995.
71. See the results reported in Kazakhstanskaya pravda, 13, 20 and 30-31 Dec. 1995.
72. John Anderson, 'The Kyrgyz Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1995', Electoral Studies, Vol.15, No.4 (1996), pp.529-33.
73. Information on Kyrgyz political parties has to be gleaned from the pages of the republican press, although some material can be found in M. Hahayeghi, Islam and Politics in Central Asia (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1994), pp.108-10, 116-18 and 121-3.
74. The results of these polls are reported in Slovo Kyrgyzstana, 19 Feb., 29 June and 24 Sept. 1994.
75. This is based upon a list of successful candidates supplied to me by Asyl Imanalieva of the Kyrgyz embassy in Washington.
76. The persistent failure of parties to evolve and the petty personal struggles that often prevent the creation of broad-based, 'catch-all' parties led one Kyrgyz party leader to suggest a novel solution for his republic. According to this, a poll of some sort would determine the level of support for each party, and the leading two parties would be given funding and state support to develop nation-wide organizations, thus forcing other smaller parties to join with broadbased coalition parties capable of acting effectively in legislative bodies: E. Alymbekov, 'Zadanie na zavtra ... presidentu', Res publika, 16 Jan. 1996.
77. R. Achylova, 'Political Culture and Foreign Policy in Kyrgyzstan', in V. Tismaneanu (ed.), Political Culture and Civil Society in Russia and the New States of Eurasia (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1995), p.327.
78. E. Friedman, 'Democratization: Generalizing the East Asian Experience', in E. Friedman (ed.), The Politics of Democratization: Generalizing the East Asian Experience (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1994), pp. 19-57.
79. The psycho-analytically inclined might like to make something of the fact that the two most authoritarian leaders, Karimov and Niyazov, were brought up in state orphanages!
80. Samuel P. Huntington, 'Democracy's Third Wave', in L. Diamond and M. Plattner (eds.), The Global Resurgence of Democracy (Baltimore, MD and London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993), p. 18.
81. Martha Brill Olcott, Central Asia's New States: Interdependence, Foreign Policy and Regional Security (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1996), pp.33-6.
82. B. Dave, "A New Parliament Consolidates Presidential Authority', Transition, 22 March 1996, p.32.
83. See Gordon White, 'Civil Society, Democracy and Development: (ii) Two Country Cases', Democratization, Vol.2, No.2 (1995), pp.56-84; Ambrose Y.C. King, 'A Non-Paradigmatic Search for Democracy in a Post-Confucian Culture: The Case of Taiwan, ROC', in Diamond, Political Culture and Democracy, pp.131-53; Bell, Towards Illiberal Democracy in Pacific Asia.
84. See Gordon White, 'Civil Society, Democracy and Development: (ii) Two Country Cases', Democratization, Vol.2, No.2 (1995), pp.56-84; Ambrose Y.C. King, 'A Non-Paradigmatic Search for Democracy in a Post-Confucian Culture: The Case of Taiwan, ROC', in Diamond, Political Culture and Democracy, pp.131-53; Bell, Towards Illiberal Democracy in Pacific Asia.
85. See Gordon White, 'Civil Society, Democracy and Development: (ii) Two Country Cases', Democratization, Vol.2, No.2 (1995), pp.56-84; Ambrose Y.C. King, 'A Non-Paradigmatic Search for Democracy in a Post-Confucian Culture: The Case of Taiwan, ROC', in Diamond, Political Culture and Democracy, pp.131-53; Bell, Towards Illiberal Democracy in Pacific Asia.
86. Leftwich, On the Primacy of Politics ... ', p. 18.