메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 40, Issue 2, 1997, Pages 383-429

New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments

Author keywords

Forward rate curve; Options; Risk neutral distribution

Indexed keywords


EID: 0031256303     PISSN: 03043932     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00047-0     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (150)

References (86)
  • 4
    • 0001261043 scopus 로고
    • Risk premiums in the term structure; Evidence from artificial economies
    • Backus, D.K., Gregory, A.W., Zin, S.E., 1989. Risk premiums in the term structure; evidence from artificial economies. Journal of Monetary Economics 24, 371-399.
    • (1989) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.24 , pp. 371-399
    • Backus, D.K.1    Gregory, A.W.2    Zin, S.E.3
  • 6
    • 0000083019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability distributions of future asset prices implied by option prices
    • Bahra, B., 1996. Probability distributions of future asset prices implied by option prices. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin August 1996, 299-311.
    • (1996) Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin August 1996 , pp. 299-311
    • Bahra, B.1
  • 7
    • 0031184831 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates
    • Balduzzi, P., Bertola, G., Foresi, S., 1997. A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Monetary Economics 39, 223-250.
    • (1997) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.39 , pp. 223-250
    • Balduzzi, P.1    Bertola, G.2    Foresi, S.3
  • 10
    • 0010798507 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bank for International Settlements, 1996. 66th Annual Report.
    • (1996) 66th Annual Report
  • 11
    • 84977707224 scopus 로고
    • The crash of '87: Was it expected? The evidence from options markets
    • Bates, D.S., 1991. The crash of '87: was it expected? The evidence from options markets. Journal of Finance 46, 1009-1044.
    • (1991) Journal of Finance , vol.46 , pp. 1009-1044
    • Bates, D.S.1
  • 12
    • 0030078492 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dollar jump fears, 1984:1992: Distributional abnormalities implicit in currency futures options
    • Bates, D., 1996. Dollar jump fears, 1984:1992: distributional abnormalities implicit in currency futures options. journal of international money and finance 15, 65-93.
    • (1996) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.15 , pp. 65-93
    • Bates, D.1
  • 13
    • 34248483578 scopus 로고
    • The pricing of commodity contracts
    • Black, F., 1976. The pricing of commodity contracts. Journal of Financial Economics 3, 167-179.
    • (1976) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.3 , pp. 167-179
    • Black, F.1
  • 14
    • 0000516158 scopus 로고
    • Prices of state-contingent claims implicit in option prices
    • Breeden, D., Litzenberger, R., 1978. Prices of state-contingent claims implicit in option prices. Journal of Business 51, 621-651.
    • (1978) Journal of Business , vol.51 , pp. 621-651
    • Breeden, D.1    Litzenberger, R.2
  • 15
    • 0030319276 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Arbitrage-based tests of target zone credibility: Evidence from ERM cross-rate options
    • Campa, J.M., Chang, P.H.K., 1996. Arbitrage-based tests of target zone credibility: evidence from ERM cross-rate options. American Economic Review 86, 726-740.
    • (1996) American Economic Review , vol.86 , pp. 726-740
    • Campa, J.M.1    Chang, P.H.K.2
  • 16
    • 84959821636 scopus 로고
    • Yield spreads and interest rate movements: A bird's eye view
    • Campbell, J.Y., Shiller, R.J., 1991. Yield spreads and interest rate movements: a bird's eye view. Review of Economic Studies 58, 495-514.
    • (1991) Review of Economic Studies , vol.58 , pp. 495-514
    • Campbell, J.Y.1    Shiller, R.J.2
  • 17
    • 0000462914 scopus 로고
    • Profits, risk and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets
    • Canova, F., Marrinan, J., 1993. Profits, risk and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets. Journal of Monetary Economics 32, 259-286.
    • (1993) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.32 , pp. 259-286
    • Canova, F.1    Marrinan, J.2
  • 18
    • 84978593577 scopus 로고
    • Upper bounds for American futures options: A note
    • Chaudhury, M., Wei, J., 1994. Upper bounds for American futures options: a note. Journal of Futures Markets 14, 111-116.
    • (1994) Journal of Futures Markets , vol.14 , pp. 111-116
    • Chaudhury, M.1    Wei, J.2
  • 19
    • 21344498595 scopus 로고
    • Consumption, inflation risk, and real interest rates: An empirical analysis
    • Chan, L.K.C., 1995. Consumption, inflation risk, and real interest rates: an empirical analysis. Journal of Business 67, 69-96.
    • (1995) Journal of Business , vol.67 , pp. 69-96
    • Chan, L.K.C.1
  • 20
    • 84978571321 scopus 로고
    • Pricing interest rate futures options with futures-style margining
    • Chen, R., Scott, L., 1993. Pricing interest rate futures options with futures-style margining. Journal of Futures Markets 13, 15-22.
    • (1993) Journal of Futures Markets , vol.13 , pp. 15-22
    • Chen, R.1    Scott, L.2
  • 22
    • 33847554918 scopus 로고
    • The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes
    • Cox, J.C., Ross, S.A., 1976. The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes. Journal of Financial Economics 3, 145-166.
    • (1976) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.3 , pp. 145-166
    • Cox, J.C.1    Ross, S.A.2
  • 24
    • 0010871082 scopus 로고
    • Conditional forward term premia: Some international evidence
    • Stockholm University
    • Dahlquist, M., 1995. Conditional forward term premia: some international evidence. In IIES Monograph Series No. 29, Stockholm University.
    • (1995) IIES Monograph Series No. 29 , vol.29
    • Dahlquist, M.1
  • 28
    • 0030163502 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence
    • Engel, C., 1996. The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: a survey of recent evidence. Journal of Empirical Finance 3, 123-192.
    • (1996) Journal of Empirical Finance , vol.3 , pp. 123-192
    • Engel, C.1
  • 32
    • 85033074274 scopus 로고
    • Credit Suisse First Boston, London
    • Fage, P., 1986. Yield Calculations. Credit Suisse First Boston, London.
    • (1986) Yield Calculations
    • Fage, P.1
  • 33
    • 0000911048 scopus 로고
    • The information in the term structure
    • Fama, E.F., 1984. The information in the term structure. Journal of Financial Economics 13, 509-528.
    • (1984) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.13 , pp. 509-528
    • Fama, E.F.1
  • 34
    • 0000064728 scopus 로고
    • The information in long-maturity forward rates
    • Fama, E.F., Bliss, R.R., 1987. The information in long-maturity forward rates. The American Economic Review 77, 680-692.
    • (1987) The American Economic Review , vol.77 , pp. 680-692
    • Fama, E.F.1    Bliss, R.R.2
  • 36
    • 84982690175 scopus 로고
    • Exchange rate expectations and the risk premium: Tests for a cross section of 17 currencies
    • Frankel, J.A., Chinn, M.D., 1993. Exchange rate expectations and the risk premium: tests for a cross section of 17 currencies. Review of International Economics 1 (2), 136-144.
    • (1993) Review of International Economics , vol.1 , Issue.2 , pp. 136-144
    • Frankel, J.A.1    Chinn, M.D.2
  • 38
    • 84977704978 scopus 로고
    • New hope for the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates
    • Froot, K.A., 1989. New hope for the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. The Journal of Finance 44, 283-304.
    • (1989) The Journal of Finance , vol.44 , pp. 283-304
    • Froot, K.A.1
  • 39
    • 84959841139 scopus 로고
    • Forward discount bias: Is it an exchange risk premium
    • Froot, K.A., Frankel, J.A., 1989. Forward discount bias: is it an exchange risk premium. Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, 139-161.
    • (1989) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.104 , pp. 139-161
    • Froot, K.A.1    Frankel, J.A.2
  • 42
    • 0002403976 scopus 로고
    • Interest rate policy and the inflation scare problem: 1979-1992
    • Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Winter
    • Goodfriend, M., 1993. Interest rate policy and the inflation scare problem: 1979-1992, Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Winter, 1-24.
    • (1993) Economic Quarterly , pp. 1-24
    • Goodfriend, M.1
  • 43
    • 43949152349 scopus 로고
    • The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries
    • Hardouvelis, G.A., 1994. The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries. Journal of Monetary Economics 33, 255-283.
    • (1994) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.33 , pp. 255-283
    • Hardouvelis, G.A.1
  • 44
    • 0003002682 scopus 로고
    • Nominal income targeting
    • Mankiw, N.G. (Ed.), University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Hall, R.E., Mankiw, N.G., 1994. Nominal income targeting. In: Mankiw, N.G. (Ed.), Monetary Policy. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
    • (1994) Monetary Policy
    • Hall, R.E.1    Mankiw, N.G.2
  • 45
    • 38649141305 scopus 로고
    • Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod security markets
    • Harrison, J.M., Kreps, D., 1979. Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod security markets. Journal of Economic Theory 20, 381-408.
    • (1979) Journal of Economic Theory , vol.20 , pp. 381-408
    • Harrison, J.M.1    Kreps, D.2
  • 46
    • 0010801367 scopus 로고
    • Indexed bonds as an aid to monetary policy
    • Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, January/February
    • Hetzel, R.L., 1992. Indexed bonds as an aid to monetary policy. Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, January/February, 13-23.
    • (1992) Economic Review , pp. 13-23
    • Hetzel, R.L.1
  • 48
    • 0002795424 scopus 로고
    • A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizon
    • Jorion, P., Mishkin, F., 1991. A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizon. Journal of Financial Economics 29, 59-80.35.
    • (1991) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.29 , pp. 59-8035
    • Jorion, P.1    Mishkin, F.2
  • 50
    • 0010860268 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The sovereignty options: The Quebec referendum and market views on the Canadian dollar
    • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
    • Leahy, M.P., Thomas, C.P., 1996. The sovereignty options: the Quebec referendum and market views on the Canadian dollar. International Finance Discussion Paper No. 555, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
    • (1996) International Finance Discussion Paper No. 555 , vol.555
    • Leahy, M.P.1    Thomas, C.P.2
  • 51
    • 0001077376 scopus 로고
    • International financial markets
    • Grossman, G., Rogoff, K., (Eds.), Elsevier. Amsterdam. (Also as NBER Working Paper No. 4951.)
    • Lewis, K.K., 1995. International financial markets. In: Grossman, G., Rogoff, K., (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics, vol. 3. Elsevier. Amsterdam. (Also as NBER Working Paper No. 4951.)
    • (1995) Handbook of International Economics , vol.3
    • Lewis, K.K.1
  • 52
    • 0001400475 scopus 로고
    • On the expectations view of the term structure, term premia and survey-based expectations
    • MacDonald, R., Macmillan, P., 1994. On the expectations view of the term structure, term premia and survey-based expectations. The Economic Journal 104, 1070-1086.
    • (1994) The Economic Journal , vol.104 , pp. 1070-1086
    • MacDonald, R.1    Macmillan, P.2
  • 53
    • 0030268650 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European monetary system: The case of Sterling-Mark
    • Malz, A.M., 1996. Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European monetary system: the case of Sterling-Mark. Journal of International Money and Finance 15, 717-748.
    • (1996) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.15 , pp. 717-748
    • Malz, A.M.1
  • 56
    • 38149143534 scopus 로고
    • A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship
    • McCallum, B.T., 1994. A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics 33, 105-132.
    • (1994) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.33 , pp. 105-132
    • McCallum, B.T.1
  • 57
    • 0002834716 scopus 로고
    • Measuring the term structure of interest rates
    • McCulloch, J.H., 1971. Measuring the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Business 44, 19-31.
    • (1971) Journal of Business , vol.44 , pp. 19-31
    • McCulloch, J.H.1
  • 58
  • 59
    • 0031516243 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recovering an asset's implied PDF from options prices: An application to crude oil during the Gulf crisis
    • Melick, W.R., Thomas, C.P., 1997. Recovering an asset's implied PDF from options prices: an application to crude oil during the Gulf crisis. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 32, 91-115.
    • (1997) Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis , vol.32 , pp. 91-115
    • Melick, W.R.1    Thomas, C.P.2
  • 60
    • 44949279753 scopus 로고
    • A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation
    • Mishkin, F.S., 1991. A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation. Journal of International Money and Finance 10, 2-22.
    • (1991) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.10 , pp. 2-22
    • Mishkin, F.S.1
  • 63
    • 0001491925 scopus 로고
    • Parsimonious modeling of yield curves
    • Nelson, C.R., Siegel, A.F., 1987. Parsimonious modeling of yield curves. Journal of Business 60, 473-489.
    • (1987) Journal of Business , vol.60 , pp. 473-489
    • Nelson, C.R.1    Siegel, A.F.2
  • 65
    • 0002273002 scopus 로고
    • Identifying the dynamics of real interest rates and inflation: Evidence using survey data
    • Pennacchi, G.G., 1991. Identifying the dynamics of real interest rates and inflation: evidence using survey data. Review of Financial Studies 4, 53-86.
    • (1991) Review of Financial Studies , vol.4 , pp. 53-86
    • Pennacchi, G.G.1
  • 66
    • 84986533487 scopus 로고
    • Call option valuation for discrete normal mixtures
    • Ritchey, R.J., 1990. Call option valuation for discrete normal mixtures. Journal of Financial Research 13, 285-296.
    • (1990) Journal of Financial Research , vol.13 , pp. 285-296
    • Ritchey, R.J.1
  • 67
    • 0010873680 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • US treasury inflation-indexed bonds: The design of a new security
    • December
    • Roll, Richard, 1996. US treasury inflation-indexed bonds: the design of a new security. Journal of Fixed Income, December, 9-28.
    • (1996) Journal of Fixed Income , pp. 9-28
    • Roll, R.1
  • 68
    • 21844524407 scopus 로고
    • Expected and predicted realignments: The FF/DM exchange rate during the EMS
    • Rose, A.K., Svensson, L.E.O., 1995. Expected and predicted realignments: the FF/DM exchange rate during the EMS. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 97, 173-200.
    • (1995) Scandinavian Journal of Economics , vol.97 , pp. 173-200
    • Rose, A.K.1    Svensson, L.E.O.2
  • 69
    • 0016997122 scopus 로고
    • The valuation of uncertain income streams and the pricing of options
    • Rubinstein, M., 1976. The valuation of uncertain income streams and the pricing of options. Bell Journal of Economics 7, 407-425.
    • (1976) Bell Journal of Economics , vol.7 , pp. 407-425
    • Rubinstein, M.1
  • 70
    • 58149362804 scopus 로고
    • Federal reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure
    • Rudebusch, G.D., 1995. Federal reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure. Journal of Monetary Economics 35, 245-274.
    • (1995) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.35 , pp. 245-274
    • Rudebusch, G.D.1
  • 72
    • 0000255283 scopus 로고
    • The term structure of interest rates
    • Friedman. B.M., Hanh, G.H. (Eds.). Elsevier, Amsterdam
    • Shiller, R.J., 1990. The Term structure of interest rates. In: Friedman. B.M., Hanh, G.H. (Eds.). Handbook of Monetary Economics. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
    • (1990) Handbook of Monetary Economics
    • Shiller, R.J.1
  • 74
    • 0002672430 scopus 로고
    • Bounds of probability
    • Shimko, D., 1993. Bounds of probability. RISK Magazine 6, 33-47.
    • (1993) RISK Magazine , vol.6 , pp. 33-47
    • Shimko, D.1
  • 75
    • 0038901630 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations
    • forthcoming
    • Söderlind, P., 1998. Nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, forthcoming.
    • (1998) Scandinavian Journal of Economics
    • Söderlind, P.1
  • 77
    • 0000210943 scopus 로고
    • The simplest test of target zone credibility
    • Svensson, L.E.O., 1991. The simplest test of target zone credibility. IMF Staff Papers 38, 855-665.
    • (1991) IMF Staff Papers , vol.38 , pp. 855-1665
    • Svensson, L.E.O.1
  • 78
    • 44049113710 scopus 로고
    • The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk
    • Svensson, L.E.O., 1992, The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk. Journal of International Economics 33, 21-40.
    • (1992) Journal of International Economics , vol.33 , pp. 21-40
    • Svensson, L.E.O.1
  • 79
    • 43949169857 scopus 로고
    • Assessing target zone credibility: Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM 1979-1992
    • Svensson, L.E.O., 1993a. Assessing target zone credibility: mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM 1979-1992. European Economic Review 37, 763-802.
    • (1993) European Economic Review , vol.37 , pp. 763-802
    • Svensson, L.E.O.1
  • 80
    • 0011448672 scopus 로고
    • Term, inflation, and foreign exchange risk premia: A unified treatment
    • Svensson, L.E.O., 1993b. Term, inflation, and foreign exchange risk premia: a unified treatment. NBER Working Paper No. 4544.
    • (1993) NBER Working Paper No. 4544 , vol.4544
    • Svensson, L.E.O.1
  • 82
    • 0010860270 scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy with flexible exchange rates and forward rates as indicators
    • Banque de France
    • Svensson, L.E.O., 1994b. Monetary policy with flexible exchange rates and forward rates as indicators. Cahiers Economiques et Monetaires 43, Banque de France.
    • (1994) Cahiers Economiques et Monetaires , vol.43
    • Svensson, L.E.O.1
  • 83
    • 0010792286 scopus 로고
    • Estimating forward interest rates with the extended Nelson & Siegel method
    • 1995
    • Svensson, L.E.O., 1995. Estimating forward interest rates with the extended Nelson & Siegel method. Quarterly Review, Sveriges Riksbank, 1995:3, 13-26.
    • (1995) Quarterly Review, Sveriges Riksbank , vol.3 , pp. 13-26
    • Svensson, L.E.O.1
  • 84
    • 0000529574 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets
    • Svensson, L.E.O., 1997. Inflation forecast targeting: implementing and monitoring inflation targets. European Economic Review 41, 1111-1146.
    • (1997) European Economic Review , vol.41 , pp. 1111-1146
    • Svensson, L.E.O.1
  • 85
    • 0347078538 scopus 로고
    • An equilibrium characterization of the term structure
    • Vasicek, O., 1977. An equilibrium characterization of the term structure. Journal of Financial Economics 5, 177-188.
    • (1977) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.5 , pp. 177-188
    • Vasicek, O.1
  • 86
    • 0002986760 scopus 로고
    • Nonstandard indicators for monetary policy
    • Mankiw, N.G. (Ed.). Chicago University Press, Chicago
    • Woodford, M., 1994. Nonstandard indicators for monetary policy. In: Mankiw, N.G. (Ed.). Monetary Policy. Chicago University Press, Chicago.
    • (1994) Monetary Policy
    • Woodford, M.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.