Who takes risks? Daring and caution in foreign policy making

Journal of Conflict Resolution

Volumn 41, Issue 5, 1997, Pages 611-637

  Kowert, Paul A ^a   Hermann, Margaret G ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0031240232     PISSN: 00220027     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0022002797041005001     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. Allison, G. 1971. Essence of decision: Explaining the Cuban missile crisis. Boston: Little, Brown.
2. Arch, E. C. 1993. Risk-taking: A motivational basis for sex differences. Psychological Reports 73:3-11.
3. Backteman, G., and D. Magnusson. 1981. Longitudinal stability of personality characteristics. Journal of Personality 49:148-60.
4. Bem, D., and D. Funder. 1978. Predicting more of the people more of the time: Assessing the personality of situations. Psychological Review 85:485-501.
5. Bendor, J., and T. Hammond. 1992. Rethinking Allison's models. American Political Science Review 86:301-21.
6. Bendor, J., and T. M. Moe. 1985. An adaptive model of bureaucratic politics. American Political Science Review 79:755-74.
7. Block, J. 1969. Lives through time. Berkeley, CA: Bancroft Books.
8. -. 1977. Advancing the psychology of personality: Paradigmatic shift or improving the quality of research. In Personality at the crossroads: Current issues in interactional psychology, edited by D. Magnusson and N. S. Endler, 37-63. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
9. Bueno de Mesquita, B. 1975. Strategy, risk and personality in coalition politics: The case of India. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
10. -. 1981. The war trap. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
11. -. 1985. The war trap revisited: A revised expected utility model. American Political Science Review 79:156-73.
12. Bueno de Mesquita, B., and D. Lalman. 1992. War and reason: Domestic and international imperatives. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
13. Campbell, B. A. 1981. On the utility of trait theory in political science. Micropolitics 1:177-90.
14. Comrey, A. L. 1983. An evaluation of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. Academic Psychology Bulletin 5:115-29.
15. Costa, P. T., and R. R. McCrae. 1985. Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO PI-R): Professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources.
16. -. 1992. Four ways five factors are basic. Personality and Individual Differences 13:653-65.
17. Digman, J. M. 1990. Personality structure: Emergence of the Five-Factor Model. Annual Review of Psychology 41:417-40.
18. Donovan, D. M., H. R. Queisser, P. M. Salzberg, and R. L. Umlauf. 1985. Intoxicated and bad driven: Subgroups within the same population of high risk men drivers. Journal of Studies on Alcohol 46:375-82.
19. Eysenck, H. J. 1992. Four ways five factors are not basic. Personality and Individual Differences 13:667-73.
20. Eysenck, S.B.G., and H. J. Eysenck. 1978. Impulsiveness and venturesomeness: Their position in a dimensional system of personality description. Psychological Reports 43:1247-55.
21. Fagley, N. S., and P. M. Miller. 1990. The effect of framing on choice: Interactions with risk-taking. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 16:496-510.
22. Farnham, B. 1992. Roosevelt and the Munich crisis: Insights from prospect theory. Political Psychology 13:205-35.
23. Fearon. J. 1995. Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization 49:379-414.
24. Fiske, D. 1949. Consistency of the factorial structures of personality ratings from different sources. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 44:329-44.
25. Frederick II. 1920. Die politischen Testamente Friedrichs des Grossen. Berlin: R. Hobbing.
26. Frisch, D. 1993. Reasons for framing effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 54:399-429.
27. Funder, D. 1989. Accuracy in personality judgment and the dancing bear. In Personality psychology: Recent trends and emerging directions, edited by D. M. Buss and N. Cantor, 210-13. New York: Springer-Verlag.
28. Funder, D., and C. D. Sneed. 1993. Behavioral manifestations of personality: An ecological approach to judgmental accuracy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 64:479-90.
29. George, A. L., and R. Smoke. 1974. Deterrence in American foreign policy: Theory and practice. New York: Columbia University Press.
30. Goldberg, L. R. 1993. The structure of phenotypic personality traits. American Psychologist 48:26-34.
31. Goldgeier, J. M. 1994. Leadership style and Soviet foreign policy: Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Gorbachev. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
32. Goma, M., J. Perez, and R. Torrubia. 1988. Personality variables in antisocial and prosocial disinhibitory behavior. In Biological contributions to crime causation, edited by T. E. Moffitt and S. A. Mednick, 211-22. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Martinus Nijhoff.
33. Halperin, M. 1974. Bureaucratic politics and foreign policy. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
34. Hampson, F. O. 1988. The divided decision-maker: American domestic politics and the Cuban crisis. In The domestic sources of American foreign policy, edited by C. W. Kegley, Jr., and E. R. Wittkopf, 227-47. New York: St. Martin's.
35. Heaven, P.C.L. 1991. Venturesomeness, impulsiveness, and Eysenck's personality dimensions: A study among Australian adolescents. Journal of Genetic Psychology 152:91-99.
36. Hermann, C. F. 1972. International crises: Insights from behavioral research. New York: Free Press.
37. Hermann, M. 1976. When leader personality will affect foreign policy: Some propositions. In In search of global patterns, edited by J. N. Rosenau, 326-333. New York: Free Press.
38. -. 1980. Explaining foreign policy using personal characteristics of political leaders. International Studies Quarterly 24:7-46.
39. -. 1984. Personality and foreign policy decision making: A study of 53 heads of government. In Foreign policy decision making: Perception, cognition, and artificial intelligence, edited by D. Sylvan and S. Chan, 53-80. New York: Praeger.
40. -. 1986. The ingredients of leadership. In Political psychology: Contemporary problems and issues, edited by M. Hermann, 167-92. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
41. -. 1988. Syria's Hafez al-Assad. In Leadership and negotiation in the Middle East, edited by B. Kellerman and J. Rubin, 70-95. New York: Praeger.
42. -. 1995. Leaders, leadership, and flexibility: Influences on heads of government as negotiators and mediators. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 542:148-67.
43. Hicks, L. E. 1985. Conceptual and empirical analysis of some assumptions of an explicitly typological theory. Journal of Psychological Type 10:1118-31.
44. Hirsh, S. K. 1985. Using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator in organizations: A resource book. Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press.
45. Holsti, O. 1972. Crisis escalation war. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.
46. Horvath, P., and M. Zuckerman. 1993. Sensation seeking, risk appraisal, and risky behavior. Personality and Individual Differences 14:41-52.
47. Jervis, R. 1978. Cooperation under the security dilemma. World Politics 30:167-214.
48. -. 1992. Political implications of loss aversion. Political Psychology 13:187-204.
49. Jervis, R., R. N. Lebow, and J. G. Stein, eds. 1985. Psychology and deterrence. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
50. Jung, C. G. 1923. Psychological types. New York: Harcourt Brace.
51. Kahneman, D., J. L. Knetsch, and R. H. Thaler. 1991. The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives 5:193-206.
52. Kogan, N., and M. Wallach. 1964. Risk taking: A study in cognition and personality. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
53. -. 1967. Risk taking as a function of the situation, the person, and the group. In New directions in psychology III, edited by T. M. Newcomb, 111-278. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
54. Kowert, P., and D. Bem. 1996. The political personality: Q-sort profiles of six postwar American presidents. Paper presented at the 92nd annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, August 29-September 1.
55. Lebow, R. N. 1981. Between peace and war: The nature of international crisis. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
56. Lebow, R. N., and J. G. Stein. 1989. Rational deterrence theory: I think, therefore I deter. World Politics 41:208-24.
57. Levenson, M. R. 1990. Risk taking and personality. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 58:1073-80.
58. Levy, J. S. 1983. Misperception and the causes of war: Theoretical linkages and analytical problems. World Politics 36:76-99.
59. -. 1992a. An introduction to prospect theory. Political Psychology 13:171-86.
60. -. 1992b. Prospect theory and international relations: Theoretical applications and analytical problems. Political Psychology 13:283-310.
61. -. 1997. Prospect theory, rational choice, and international relations. International Studies Quarterly 41:87-112.
62. MacCrimmon, K., and D. A. Wehrung. 1986. Taking risks: The management of uncertainty. New York: Free Press.
63. McCaulley, M. H. 1978. Application of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator to medicine and other health professions. Monograph 1. Gainesville, FL: Center for Applications of Psychological Type.
64. McClelland, P. D. 1975. Causal explanation and model building in history, economics, and the new economic history. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
65. McCrae, R. R., and P. T. Costa. 1989. Reinterpreting the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator from the perspective of the Five-Factor Model of personality. Journal of Personality 57:17-40.
66. McCrae, R. R., and O. John. 1992. An introduction to the Five-Factor Model and its applications. Journal of Personality 60:175-215.
67. McDermott, R. 1992. Prospect theory in international relations. Political Psychology 13:237-63.
68. McInerney, A. 1992. Prospect theory and Soviet policy towards Syria, 1966-1967. Political Psychology 13:265-82.
69. Mischel, W. 1968. Personality and assessment. New York: John Wiley.
70. Morgenthau, H. J. 1967. Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace. 4th ed. New York: Knopf.
71. Morrow, J. 1987. On the theoretical basis of a measure of national risk attitudes. International Studies Quarterly 31:423-38.
72. -. 1991. Alliances and asymmetry. American Journal of Political Science 35:904-33.
73. Myers, I. B. 1980. Gifts differing. Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press.
74. Nelan, B. W. 1994. Ike's invasion. Time, 6 June, 36-49.
75. Oye, K., ed. 1985. Cooperation under anarchy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
76. Patton, G. S. 1947. War as I knew it. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
77. Piedmont, R. L., R. R. McCrae, and P. T. Costa. 1991. Adjective check list scales and the five-factor model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 60:630-37.
78. Quattrone, G., and A. Tversky. 1988. Contrasting rational and psychological analyses of political choice. American Political Science Review 82:719-36.
79. Renshon, S., ed. 1995. The Clinton presidency: Campaigning, governing, and the psychology of leadership. Boulder, CO: Westview.
80. Saklofske, D. H., and S.B.G. Eysenck. 1983. Impulsiveness and venturesomeness in Canadian children. Psychological Reports 52:147-52.
81. Simonton, D. K. 1986. Presidential personality: Biographical use of the Cough Adjective Check List. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51:149-60.
82. Slovic, P. 1964. Assessment of risk taking behavior. Psychological Bulletin 61:220-33.
83. -. 1972. Information processing, situation specificity, and the generality of risktaking behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 22:128-34.
84. Snidal, D. 1985. Coordination versus prisoners' dilemma: Implications for international cooperation and regimes. American Political Science Review 79:923-42.
85. Stein, J. G. 1993. Threat-based strategies of conflict management: Why did they fail in the Gulf? In The political psychology of the Gulf War: Leaders, publics, and the process of conflict, edited by Stanley Renshon. 121-53. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
86. 't Hart, P. 1990. Groupthink in government: A study of small groups and policy failures. Amsterdam: Swets & Zeitlinger.
87. Tupes, E. C, and R. E. Christal. 1958. Stability of personality trait rating factors obtained under diverse conditions. U.S. Air Force Technical Note No. 58-61. Lackland Air Force Base, TX. (Reprinted in 1992 under the title "Recurrent personality factors based on trait ratings," Journal of Personality 60:225-51)
88. Tupes, E. C, and R. E. Christal. 1958. Stability of personality trait rating factors obtained under diverse conditions. U.S. Air Force Technical Note No. 58-61. Lackland Air Force Base, TX. (Reprinted in 1992 under the title "Recurrent personality factors based on trait ratings," Journal of Personality 60:225-51)
89. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. 1986. Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Journal of Business 59:S251-58.
90. Vertzberger, Y. 1995. Rethinking and reconceptualizing risk in foreign policy decision making: A sociocognitive approach. Political Psychology 16:347-80.
91. Viorst, M. 1990. Report from Baghdad. The New Yorker, 24 September, 90.
92. von Clausewitz, C. 1976. On war. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
93. Weber, K. 1992. Hierarchy amidst anarchy: Transaction costs and international cooperation. Ph.D. diss., University of California, Los Angeles.
94. Welch, D. 1992. The organizational process and bureaucratic politics paradigms. International Security 17:112-46.
95. West, S. 1986. Methodological developments in personality research: An introduction. Journal of Personality 54:1-17.
96. Winter, D. G. 1992. Personality and foreign policy: Historical overview of research. In Political psychology and foreign policy, edited by E. Singer and V. Hudson, 79-101. Boulder, CO: Westview.
97. Zuckerman, Marvin. 1979. Sensation seeking: Beyond the optimal level of arousal. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
98. -. 1983a. Biological bases of sensation seeking, impulsivity, and anxiety. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
99. -. 1983b Sensation seeking: The initial motive for drug abuse. In Etiological aspects of alcohol and drug abuse, edited by E. Gotheil, K. A. Druley, T. E. Skoloda, and H. M. Waxman, 202-20. Springfield, IL: Charles C Thomas.
100. -. 1992. What is a basic factor and which factors are basic? Turtles all the way down. Personality and Individual Differences 13:675-81.
101. Zuckerman, Miron, R. Koestner, T. DeBoy, T. Garcia, B. Maresca, and J. M. Sartoris. 1988. To predict some of the people some of the time: A reexamination of the moderator variable approach in personality theory. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54:1006-19.