Asia's transition diplomacy: Hedging against futureshock

Survival

Volumn 41, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 43-67

  Manning, Robert A ^a   Przystup, James J ^b  

^a Program on International Institutions and Global Governance   (United States)

^b NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0008220579     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/survival/41.3.43     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. See Aaron Friedberg, 'Asia's Past, Europe's Future', Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Policy Forum Series no. 3, October 1998.
2. See Paul Bracken, Fire in The East (London: Harper Collins, 1999).
3. See Kent E. Calder, Asia's Deadly Triangle (London: Nicholas Brealey, 1996).
4. Robert S. Ross, 'The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-First Century', International Security, vol. 23, no. 4, Spring 1999, pp. 81-119.
5. Previously, in his controversial book, The Clash of Civilizations (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), Samuel Huntington suggested that the price of peace in Asia may be acceptance of Chinese hegemony in a sort of twenty-first-century version of the Middle Kingdom tributary system. Yet one need only to look as far as Korea and China, where two civil conflicts pose the prime threats of war to question this thesis.
6. See US Security Strategy for the Asia-Pacific Region, Department of Defense, November 1998, available at: http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/easr98/index.html
7. See Defense White Paper, State Council, Beijing, July 1998: search under Government White Papers at: http://www.china.org.cn
8. Author interview with senior Clinton administration officials, October 1994, February 1995, May 1999.
9. See 'Japan-Republic of Korea Joint Declaration: A New Japan-ROK Partnership Towards the 21st Century', Tokyo, Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 8 October 1998.
10. See David Wiencek, 'Reviving an Asian Alliance', Washington Times, 27 May 1999, p. A18.
11. Japanese officials interview with authors, October 1998. Jiang indicated to Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi that apologetics and Taiwan were the essence of the relationship.
12. See James E. Auer, 'Japan's Military Capability in 2015', SAIS Policy Forum, December 1998 for a full discussion of Japan's military capacity and approach to security.
13. See Japan-Republic of Korea Joint Declaration, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tokyo, 8 October 1998, available at: http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/korea/joint9810.html
14. Ibid.
15. See Moscow Declaration, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, November 1998, available at: http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/pmv9811.html
16. Author interview with Japanese-officials, October 1998.
17. See Koong Paiching, 'Southeast Asian Countries' Perceptions of China's Military Modernization', Sigur Center for Asian Studies, George Washington University, May 1999; extract available at: http://www.gwu.edu/~sigur/koong.htm
18. See, for example, Robyn Lim, 'The ASEAN Regional Forum: Building on Sand', Contemporary Southeast Asia, vol. 20, no. 2, August 1998, pp. 115-36; Sheldon Simon, 'The Limits of Defense and Security Cooperation in Southeast Asia', Journal of Asian and African Studies, vol. 33, no. 1, 1 February 1998, pp. 63-74.
19. See, for example, Robyn Lim, 'The ASEAN Regional Forum: Building on Sand', Contemporary Southeast Asia, vol. 20, no. 2, August 1998, pp. 115-36; Sheldon Simon, 'The Limits of Defense and Security Cooperation in Southeast Asia', Journal of Asian and African Studies, vol. 33, no. 1, 1 February 1998, pp. 63-74.
20. See Marcus Noland et al., The Costs and Benefits of Unification, Working Paper (Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, 1998), p. 10.
21. See Elizabeth C. Economy, 'Reforming China', Survival, vol. 41, no. 3, Autumn 1999.
22. Remarks to Council on Foreign Relations Task Force, Seoul, May 1998.
23. For a sampling of views among the Korean intelligentsia, see Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) Special Memorandum, 'South Korea's Emerging Nuclear Potential', 22 February 1996.
24. For a discussion of these potential alignments, see Robert A. Manning, 'Will The Koreas Play the China Card?', The International Economy, March/April 1997.
25. Liu Huaqiu, 'China Will Always Pursue a Peaceful Foreign Policy of Independence and Self-Determination', Beijing Qiushi, no. 23, 1 December 1997, in FBIS-CHI-98-07, 19 March 1998.
26. Author discussions with foreign and defence officials, Beijing, June 1999.
27. Author interviews with senior government officials and think-tank analysts, Beijing, April and June 1999.
28. See 'China's National Defense', State Council, Beijing, July 1998 pp. 6-7; see also David Finkelstein, China's New Security Concept: Reading Between the Lines, Issue Paper (Alexandria, VA: The CAN Corporation, April 1999).
29. See 'China's National Defense', State Council, Beijing, July 1998 pp. 6-7; see also David Finkelstein, China's New Security Concept: Reading Between the Lines, Issue Paper (Alexandria, VA: The CAN Corporation, April 1999).
30. For a full discussion of the Sino-Russian bilateral relationship, see Sherman Garnett Limited Partnership (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1998).
31. See BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, 'China and Malaysia sign Joint Statement for Future Cooperation, 2 June 1999, Part 3 Asia-Pacific, FE/3550 G/4.
32. Interview with Deutche Welle, 10 July 1999.
33. For a sober view, see Ronald Montaperto, Reality check: Assessing the Chinese Military Threat, Defense Working Group paper no. 4, PPI, April 1998; see also the US Department of Defense Report to Congress, China: Future Military Capabilities and Strategy (Washington DC: USGPO, 1998).
34. For a sober view, see Ronald Montaperto, Reality check: Assessing the Chinese Military Threat, Defense Working Group paper no. 4, PPI, April 1998; see also the US Department of Defense Report to Congress, China: Future Military Capabilities and Strategy (Washington DC: USGPO, 1998).
35. See Karen Elliot House, interview with Lee Teng Hui, Wall Street Journal, 25 June 1999, p. A19.
36. For a discussion of China's nuclear weapons programme as a factor in US-China relations and in shaping the future of the nuclear era, see Robert A. Manning, 'China's New Nuclear Doctrine', Wall Street Journal, 25 June 1999, p. A18.
37. See Elizabeth C. Economy, 'Reforming China'.
38. Some analysts suggest that China may not be evolving towards the mechanistic, free-market, middle-class, political pluralism model as evidenced elsewhere in East Asia but, rather, towards a corporatist rent-seeking economy that may gravitate towards an authoritarian posture. See David Zweig, 'China's Undemocratic Capitalism', The National Interest, no. 56, Summer 1999, pp. 63-72.
39. For details of how such an institution might look, see Robert A. Manning, 'PACATOM: Nuclear Cooperation in Asia', Washington Quarterly, Spring 1997, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 217-32.
40. Recent empirical studies on key issues such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Clinton-Hashimoto summit, or the Senkakus dispute suggest that the impact varies in particular cases. See Ming Zhang and Ronald N. Montaperto, A Triad of Another Kind (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1999), especially chapters 2 and 5.
41. Author discussions in Beijing with foreign and defence ministry officials, as well as leading think-tank intellectuals, April and June 1999.