Industry output and employment projections to 2006

Monthly Labor Review

Volumn 120, Issue 11, 1997, Pages 39-57

  Franklin, James C ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; EMPLOYMENT; FORECASTING; HEALTH CARE COST; HEALTH CARE MANPOWER; HUMAN; INDUSTRY; INFORMATION PROCESSING; LONG TERM CARE; STATISTICS; UNITED STATES;

DATA COLLECTION; EMPLOYMENT; FORECASTING; HEALTH CARE SECTOR; HEALTH MANPOWER; HUMANS; INDUSTRY; LONG-TERM CARE; UNITED STATES;

EID: 0005454459     PISSN: 00981818     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. For further discussion of the labor force see, Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Labor force 2006: slowing down and changing composition," this issue, pages 23-38.
2. For further discussion of the macroeconomic influences, see Tom Boustead, "The U.S. economy to 2006," this issue, pages 6-22.
3. This article discusses gross duplicated output, which includes not only GDP, or all final demand purchases of new goods and services, but also all new goods and services produced as intermediate goods for use in further production.
4. The bulk of the engineering, management, and related services industry group, along with the computer and data processing services industry within business services, are considered to be "high-technology" industries. For a discussion of the employment shifts between manufacturing high-tech industries and services high-tech industries, see William Luker, Jr., and Donald Lyons, "Employment shifts in high-technology industries, 1986-96," Monthly Labor Review, June 1997.
5. For further discussion of the health care industry, see Laura Freeman, "Home-sweet-home health care," pp. 3-11; and Barbara H. Wootton and Laura T. Ross, "Hospital staffing patterns in urban and nonurban areas," pp. 23-33, both in the Monthly Labor Review, March 1995.
6. For further discussion of the health care industry, see Laura Freeman, "Home-sweet-home health care," pp. 3-11; and Barbara H. Wootton and Laura T. Ross, "Hospital staffing patterns in urban and nonurban areas," pp. 23-33, both in the Monthly Labor Review, March 1995.
7. Richard A. Rettig, Health Care in Transition: Technology Assessment In the Private Sector (Santa Monica, CA, The RAND Corporation, 1997), p 3.
8. The rapid growth of temporary help services, which makes up most of personnel supply services, has generated much speculation about the changing nature of the relationship between employer and employee, and created questions about the "permanence" of jobs in the future. The term "contingent worker" often has been used in this discussion. A indepth review of the phenomenon is not undertaken here, because the Bureau has already published a series of articles dealing with the issue of the contingent worker. (See the Monthly Labor Review, October 1996.) For a discussion of the temporary help services industry, see Lewis M. Segal and Daniel G. Sullivan, "The Growth of Temporary Services," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1997, pp. 117-36.
9. The rapid growth of temporary help services, which makes up most of personnel supply services, has generated much speculation about the changing nature of the relationship between employer and employee, and created questions about the "permanence" of jobs in the future. The term "contingent worker" often has been used in this discussion. A indepth review of the phenomenon is not undertaken here, because the Bureau has already published a series of articles dealing with the issue of the contingent worker. (See the Monthly Labor Review, October 1996.) For a discussion of the temporary help services industry, see Lewis M. Segal and Daniel G. Sullivan, "The Growth of Temporary Services," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1997, pp. 117-36.
10. For further discussion, see Sheila McConnell, "The role of computers in reshaping the work force," pp. 3-5; and William C. Goodman, "Software, engineering industries: threatened by technological change?" pp. 37-45, both in Monthly Labor Review, August 1996.
11. For further discussion, see Sheila McConnell, "The role of computers in reshaping the work force," pp. 3-5; and William C. Goodman, "Software, engineering industries: threatened by technological change?" pp. 37-45, both in Monthly Labor Review, August 1996.
12. For more indepth reading, see William Goodman, "Boom in day care industry the result of many social changes," Monthly Labor Review, August 1995, pp. 3-12.
13. This article discusses gross duplicated output, which includes not only GDP, or all final demand purchases of new goods and services, but also all new goods and services produced as intermediate goods for use in further production.
14. Discussions of industry-level productivity refer to labor productivity taken as the ratio of output to hours of work. This measure is calculated by the Bureau's Office of Employment Projections, and is derived from data developed for use in the projections modeling system. It is not part of the official BLS statistics on productivity produced by the Office of Productivity and Technology.
15. For a discussion of the application of computer technology in commercial banking, see Teresa L. Morisi, "Commercial banking transformed by computer technology," Monthly Labor Review, August 1996, pp. 30-37.
16. For further reading, see Teresa L. Morisi, "Employment in public schools: the student-to-employee ratio," Monthly Labor Review. July 1994, pp. 40-44.
17. For 1970 and 1975, see "Preliminary Estimates of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1970 to 1981," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 917 (Bureau of the Census, 1982). For 1980 and 1985, see "U.S. Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin. 1980 to 1991," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1095 (Bureau of the Census, 1992). For 1990, 1995, and 1996, see "U.S. Population Estimates by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic origin: 1990 to 1996," PPL-57 (unpublished paper) (Bureau of the Census, 1997). For projected 2006, see "Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1130 (Bureau of the Census, 1995).
18. For 1970 and 1975, see "Preliminary Estimates of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1970 to 1981," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 917 (Bureau of the Census, 1982). For 1980 and 1985, see "U.S. Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin. 1980 to 1991," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1095 (Bureau of the Census, 1992). For 1990, 1995, and 1996, see "U.S. Population Estimates by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic origin: 1990 to 1996," PPL-57 (unpublished paper) (Bureau of the Census, 1997). For projected 2006, see "Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1130 (Bureau of the Census, 1995).
19. For 1970 and 1975, see "Preliminary Estimates of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1970 to 1981," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 917 (Bureau of the Census, 1982). For 1980 and 1985, see "U.S. Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin. 1980 to 1991," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1095 (Bureau of the Census, 1992). For 1990, 1995, and 1996, see "U.S. Population Estimates by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic origin: 1990 to 1996," PPL-57 (unpublished paper) (Bureau of the Census, 1997). For projected 2006, see "Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1130 (Bureau of the Census, 1995).
20. For 1970 and 1975, see "Preliminary Estimates of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1970 to 1981," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 917 (Bureau of the Census, 1982). For 1980 and 1985, see "U.S. Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin. 1980 to 1991," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1095 (Bureau of the Census, 1992). For 1990, 1995, and 1996, see "U.S. Population Estimates by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic origin: 1990 to 1996," PPL-57 (unpublished paper) (Bureau of the Census, 1997). For projected 2006, see "Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1130 (Bureau of the Census, 1995).
21. Annual Energy Outlook 1997 (U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.)
22. See Boustead, "The U.S. economy to 2006," for further discussion of macro result. The macro economic model solves directly for fixed and residential investment
23. Ibid.
24. For a discussion of the competitive pressures faced by the computer manufacturing industry, see Jacqueline Warnke, "Computer manufacturing: change and competition," Monthly Labor Review, August 1996, pp. 18-29.
25. See Boustead, "The U.S. economy 2006."
26. Ibid.
27. For a discussion of the semiconductor industry, see Fancisco A. Moris, "Semiconductors: the building blocks of the information revolution," Monthly Labor Review, August 1996, pp. 6-15.
28. For a discussion of the impacts of cutbacks on defense industries and attempts to forge new markets, see Ron L. Hetrick, "Employment in high-tech defense industries in a post cold war era," Monthly Labor Review, August 1996, pp. 57-63.
29. "The coming car crash," The Economist, May 10, 1977, pp. 21-23.
30. For more indepth reading, see Stephen Heffler, "Drugs manufacturing: a prescription for jobs," Monthly Labor Review, March 1995, pp. 12-22.
31. For additional information, see Lauren A. Murray, "Unraveling employment trends in textiles and apparel," Monthly Labor Review, August 1995, pp. 62-72.