Labor force 2006: Slowing down and changing composition

Monthly Labor Review

Volumn 120, Issue 11, 1997, Pages 23-38

  Fullerton Jr , Howard N ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0345525247     PISSN: 00981818     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (10)

1. The civilian labor force consists of employed and unemployed persons actively seeking work, but does not include any Armed Forces personnel. Historical data for this series are from the Current Population Survey, conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. The race and Hispanic origin categories correspond to those promulgated in the Office of Management and Budget Directive No. 15, 1978. These categories are being reviewed by OMB, and a new directive could be issued between the time these projections were completed and their publication. The range of alternatives being considered could change the relative sizes of the black and Hispanic populations and labor forces.
3. The projections presented in this article replace those described by Howard N Fullerton, Jr., in "The 2005 labor force: growing, but slowly," Monthly Labor Review, November 1995, pp. 29-44. BLS routinely reviews and revises its economic and employment projections every 2 years.
4. "Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050," Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1130 (Washington, Bureau of the Census, 1995). The population projections are based on estimates derived from the 1990 Census of Population and reflect findings from the 1990 Census of Population. They are not adjusted for the undercount.
5. For a recent discussion of migration theories, see Douglas S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, and J. Edward Taylor, "Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal," Population and Development Review, September 1993, pp. 431-66.
6. The change in the population groups, 69 to 74 and 75 and older cause the increase in participation for the entire 65 and older group to be less than that for either age group.
7. The projected labor force numbers are consistent with the new population controls introduced in the January 1997 Current Population Survey. These new controls had little impact on the size of the aged 16 and older population, but within race groups the change shifted populations from non-Hispanic to Hispanic. For further information, see "Revisions in the Current Population Survey Effective January 1997," Employment and Earnings, February 1997, pp. 3-5.
8. For the most recent evaluation of BLS labor force projections, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "An evaluation of labor force projections to 1995," Monthly Labor Review, September 1997, pp. 5-9.
9. Entrants and leavers are computed by comparing the labor force numbers for birth cohorts at two points in time. If the labor force numbers at the second point are larger, the difference is termed the "entrants." If the labor force numbers at the second point are smaller, the difference is the "leavers." These concepts understate the numbers likely to enter and leave the labor force over the period covered by the two points in time, but are still a valid comparison. As with measures of geographic mobility, which also do not measure all the changes over a period, we do not call these net entrants and leavers. For a further discussion of the methods, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Measuring Rates Of Labor Force Dynamics," Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 1993.
10. In table 8, all racial and Hispanic origin groups have been adjusted to place Hispanics together. This is different than how numbers are presented in the other tables, specifically table 1.