Russia as rogue proliferator

Orbis

Volumn 44, Issue 1, 2000, Pages 91-107

  Blank, Stephen ^a  

^a U S ARMY WAR COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0002096477     PISSN: 00304387     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0030-4387(99)00016-2     Document Type: Article

References (148)

1. Vladimir Moskvin, "The Russian-Iranian Conundrum and Proliferation Concerns," The Monitor, Winter-Spring 1999, pp. 8-13.
2. Joint Publications Research Service, Arms Control (henceforth, JPRS-TAC), 95-009-L, Apr. 6, 1995, pp. 1-7.
3. Admiral Valentin Yegorovich Selivanov (Chief of Staff of the Navy), "A Navy's Job," Naval Forces, vol. 15, no. 2 (1994), p. 31.
4. Pavel Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership: Sino-Russian Defense Cooperation and Arms Sales," in Russia in the World Arms Trade, ed. AndrewJ. Pierre and Dmitri V. Trenin (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1997), pp. 87-105;
5. Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Central Eurasia (henceforth, FBIS-SOV), 98-041, Feb. 12, 1998, from Segodnya, Feb. 10, 1998.
6. David S. Cloud, "Warheadache," The New Republic, Apr. 20, 1998, pp. 11-12;
7. FBIS-SOV-98-194, July 15, 1998, from ITAR-TASS World Service, July 13, 1998.
8. Andrei Kortunov and Andrei Shumikhin, "Russia: Changing Attitudes Toward Proliferation of Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction," Comparative Strategy, Apr. 1996, pp. 163-64.
9. Graham H. Turbiville, Jr., "Weapons Proliferation and Organized Crime: The Russian Military and Security Forces Dimension," Occasional Papers of the Institute for National Security Studies, no. 10 (Colorado Springs: U.S. Air Force Academy, June 1996).
10. FBIS-SOV, Mar. 19, 1999, from Yaderny Kontrol, Mar.-Apr. 1999.
11. See, e.g., Al J. Venter, "Enemies and Allies in the Land of Assad," Jane's Intelligence Review, Apr. 1998, p. 30.
12. Matthew Brzezinski, "U.S. Frets Over Plan to Complete Reactor in Cuba," Wall Street Journal, Apr. 1, 1998;
13. FBIS, Near East and South Asia (henceforth, FBIS-NES), 98-084, Mar. 27, 1998, from Chennai Dinamani (Internet version), Mar. 25, 1998;
14. FBIS-SOV-98-070, Mar. 12, 1998, from Moskovskiye Novosti, Mar. 8-15, 1998;
15. FBIS-SOV-98-076, Mar. 18, 1998, from Interfax, Mar. 17, 1998;
16. FBIS-SOV-98-077, Mar. 19, 1998, from Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Mar. 17, 1998.
17. JPRS-TAC, 95-009-L, Apr. 6, 1995, p. 7; FBIS-NES, May 25, 1998, from Iran Daily, May 13, 1998.
18. One of the first in this continuing series of arguments is JPRS-TAC, 95-009-L, Apr. 6, 1995. See also "The Non-Proliferation Treaty Must Be Prolonged," Moscow News, Apr. 21-27, 1995, p. 13;
19. FBIS-SOV, Aug. 28, 1998, from Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, July 1998.
20. Michael Beck, "Russia's Rationale for Developing Export Controls," in Arms on the Market: Reducing the Risk of Proliferation in the Former Soviet Union, ed. Gary K. Bertsch and Suzette R. Grillot (New York: Routledge, 1998), pp. 37-38, 49;
21. FBIS-SOV, Aug. 28, 1998, from Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, July 1998.
22. Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, Ibid. 1998.
23. FBIS-SOV, Dec. 1, 1998, Russian Television Network, Nov. 25, 1998.
24. Bill Gertz, "Pentagon Confirms Details on Iranian Missiles," Washington Times, Mar. 27, 1998;
25. "Iran's Nuclear Programme: Scary or Not?" The Economist, Mar. 14, 1998, p. 50;
26. FBIS-NES, from Ma'ariv, Dec. 9, 1998.
27. FBIS, Arms Control (henceforth, FBIS-TAC) 98-076, Mar. 17, 1998, from Novaya Gazeta Ponedelnik, Mar. 16-22, 1998.
28. Carla Anne Robbins and Andrew Higgins, "Money Hungry, Russia Finds a Foreign Market for Nuclear Knowledge," Wall Street Journal, Dec. 15, 1998.
29. Executive Summary of the Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998, 104th Congress (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office).
30. FBIS-TAC-98-076, Mar. 17, 1998.
31. Kenneth Katzman, "Iran's Long-Range Missile Capabilities," Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, Appendix III, Unclassified Working Papers, pp. 198-99;
32. David Fillipov, "What US Calls Arms Proliferation, Russia Firm Calls Business as Usual," Boston Globe, Aug. 19, 1998.
33. FBIS-TAC-97-295, Oct. 23, 1997, from Komsomolskaya Pravda, Oct. 22, 1997.
34. Katzman, "Iran's Capabilities," pp. 197-202.
35. FBIS-SOV, May 13, 1998, from Radiostantsiya Ekho Moskvy, May 11, 1998;
36. FBIS, Military Affairs (henceforth, FBIS-UMA), 98-075, Mar. 17, 1998, from ITAR-TASS World Service, Mar. 16, 1998; FBIS-TAC-98-076, Mar. 17, 1998.
37. FBIS-SOV-98-056, Mar. 2, 1998, from Russkiy Telegraf, Feb. 25, 1998.
38. FBIS-TAC-98-057, Mar. 2, 1998, from Izvestiya, Feb. 27, 1998.
39. Robbins and Higgins, "Money Hungry."
40. FBIS-SOV-95-105, June 1, 1995, from The Guardian, May 31, 1995;
41. Stephen Blank, "Russia and Iran in a New Middle East," Mediterranean Quarterly, Fall 1992, pp. 124-27.
42. JPRS-TAC, 95-009-L, Apr. 6, 1995, p. 7.
43. Stephen Blank, "Russia's Return to Mideast Diplomacy," Orbis, Fall 1996, pp. 517-35;
44. Robbins and Higgins, "Money Hungry."
45. FBIS-SOV, May 4, 1998; FBIS-SOV, Dec. 1, 1998, from NTV, Nov. 25, 1998;
46. FBIS-SOV-98-141, May 22, 1998, from RIA, May 20, 1998.
47. RIA, Ibid. See also FBIS-SOV, Dec. 16, 1998.
48. Stephen Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Weapons Sales to China (Carlisle Barracks, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1997);
49. Felgengauer, "An Uneasy Partnership," pp. 87-105.
50. Military Space, Aug. 21, 1995, p. 1;
51. FBIS-SOV-96-140, July 19, 1996, from Kommersant-Daily, July 18, 1996.
52. Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Weapons Sales to China, pp. 18-19;
53. "Far East: China," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, Aug. 21, 1996, pp. 20-22.
54. Michael Hirsh, "The Great Technology Giveaway?" Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct. 1998, pp. 2-9.
55. Stephen Blank, Russian Arms Sales to China, Issues and Outcomes, paper presented to the CAPP-RAND Conference on China's Foreign Arms Suppliers, Oxford, England, June 26-29, 1997;
56. "Top Secret Arms and Nuclear Deals," Asia Times, June 30, 1997,
57. from Johnson's Russia List (djohnson@erols.com), July 1, 1997;
58. Bill Gertz, "Russia Sells China High-Tech Artillery," Washington Times, July 3, 1997;
59. Strategic Survey, 1996-97 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 1997), p. 170;
60. Richard D. Fisher, Jr., "Foreign Arms Acquisition and PLA Modernization," unpublished paper, Nov. 1997, pp. 4-5; personal communication from Peter Pry of the House National Security Committee staff, Mar. 1998;
61. FBIS, China (henceforth, FBIS-CHI), 98-065, Mar. 9, 1998, from Jianchuan Zhishi, no. 10, 1997;
62. Bruce G. Blair, Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces, PRAC Paper No. 13, Dec. 1994, Project on Rethinking Arms Control, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland at College Park, p. 7;
63. Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation," Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat, pp. 303-15;
64. Richard H. Speier, Testimony Before the Subcommittee on International Security Proliferation and Federal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate, June 5, 1997.
65. Nikolai Novichkov, "Russia and China Tighten Links on Military Projects," Jane's Defence Weekly, Aug. 19, 1998, p. 3.
66. FBIS-TAC-97-295, Oct. 23, 1997; FBIS-SOV, Nov. 29, 1998, from RIA, Nov. 26, 1998.
67. John Pomfret, "Russia and China, Allies Once Again?" Washington Post National Weekly Edition, Nov. 30, 1998, p. 16;
68. FBIS-SOV-98-077, Mar. 18, 1998, from Nezavisimaya Gazeta;
69. FBIS-SOV-96-028-S, May 1, 1996, from Segodnya, Dec. 14, 1995.
70. Andrei Pinkov, "China Shops for More Russian Arms," International Defense Review, Sept. 1996, p. 9;
71. FBIS-CHI-96-083, Apr. 29, 1996, from Sankei Shimbun, Apr. 25, 1996. The 100 projects figure is from a personal communication from William Triplett.
72. Barbara Opall-Rome, "DOD Rings Alarm on Chinese Antisatellite Plans," Defense News, Nov. 2-8, 1998, p. 6;
73. Paul Richter, "China May Seek Satellite Laser, Pentagon Warns," Los Angeles Times, Nov. 28, 1998;
74. FBIS-SOV, Nov. 19, 1998, from Yaderny Kontrol, July-Aug. 1998.
75. Steven Lee Myers, "Russia Helping India Extend Range of Missiles, Aides Say," New York Times, Apr. 27, 1998;
76. FBIS-NES, Dec. 23, 1998, from Deccan Herald (Internet version), Dec. 23, 1998;
77. Major General Dipankar Bannerjee (Ret.), "South Asian Nuclear and Missile Environment," Asian Defence Journal, Nov. 1998, p. 8;
78. Interview with the Indian Navy's Chief of Staff, Admiral Vishnu Baghwat, Jane's Defence Weekly, July 29, 1998, p. 32; FBIS-NES, Dec. 21, 1998, from Agence France-Presse, Dec. 21, 1998.
79. Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers," pp. 303-16.
80. David R. Tanks, "Ballistic Missiles in South Asia: Are ICBMs A Future Possibility?" Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat, pp. 320-23;
81. FBIS-SOV, Dec. 23, 1998, from ITAR-TASS, Dec. 23, 1998;
82. FBIS-NES, Dec. 23, 1998, from The Asian Age, Dec. 23, 1998;
83. Vivek Raghuvanshi, "Russia Invites India To Shop for Arms," Defense News, Mar. 11-17, 1996, p. 10.
84. Vivek Raghuvanshi, "Russia Will Continue Defense Ties With India," Defense News, Sept. 14-20, 1998, p. 41;
85. Raghuvanshi, "Russia Invites India."
86. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, Dec. 22, 1998.
87. Vladimir Orlov and William C. Potter, "The Mystery of the Sunken Gyros," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Nov.-Dec. 1998, pp. 34-39.
88. Vladimir Orlov and William C. Potter The Mystery of the Sunken Gyros The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Ibid. 1998, pp. 34-39.
89. Seymour Hersh, "Saddam's Best Friend," The New Yorker, Apr. 5, 1999, pp. 32-41;
90. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1997), p. 47;
91. Bruce R. Auster, "Should America Worry About Missiles Again?" U.S. News and World Report, July 27, 1998, p. 25.
92. Proliferation: Threat and Response, p. 44;
93. D. L. Averre, "The Mirzoyanov Affair: Russia's 'Military-Chemical' Complex," European Security, Summer 1995, pp. 273-305;
94. Ken Alibekov, "Russia's Deadly Expertise," New York Times, Mar. 27, 1998;
95. Richard Preston, "Annals of Warfare: The Bioweaponeers," The New Yorker, Mar. 9, 1998, pp. 52-65;
96. Milton Leitenberg, "Biological Weapons Arms Control," Contemporary Security Policy, Apr. 1996, pp. 1-79.
97. FBIS-SOV, Nov. 27, 1998, from ITAR-TASS, Nov. 27, 1998.
98. Derek Averre and Igor Khripunov, "Russian Chemdemil: Coaxing Communities," Jane's Intelligence Review, June 1997, pp. 257-59;
99. David Hoffman, "Soviets Reportedly Built Chemical Weapon Despite Pact with U.S.," Washington Post, Aug. 16, 1998.
100. Anthony H. Cordesman, Transnational Threats From the Middle East: Crying Wolf or Crying Havoc? (Carlisle Barracks, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1999), pp. 95-170;
101. R. Jeffrey Smith, "Did Russia Sell Iraq Germ Warfare Equipment?" Washington Post, Feb. 12, 1998;
102. R. Jeffrey Smith, "Russians Admit Firms Met Iraqis," Washington Post, Feb. 18, 1998.
103. Venter, "Enemies and Allies."
104. Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers," pp. 311-14;
105. Speier, Testimony, June 5, 1997.
106. Stephen Blank, "Who's Minding the State? The Failure of Russian Security Policy," Problems of Post-Communism, Mar.-Apr. 1998, pp. 3-11;
107. Michael McFaul, "Russia's 'Privatized' State as an Impediment to Democratic Consolidation, Part I," Security Dialogue, vol. 29, no. 2 (1998), pp. 191-99;
108. Yegor Gaidar, "How Nomenklatura Privatized Its Power," Russian Politics and Law, Jan.-Feb. 1996, p. 35;
109. Vladimir Brovkin, "Fragmentation of Authority and Privatization of the State From Gorbachev to Yeltsin," Demokratizatsiia, Summer 1998, pp. 504-17;
110. Russian Organized Crime (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1997);
111. Stephen Blank, Challenging the New World Order: The Arms Transfer Policy of the Russian Republic (Carlisle Barracks, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1993), pp. 8-33;
112. FBIS-SOV, Oct. 13, 1998, from ITAR-TASS, Oct. 13, 1998;
113. Kimberley Marten Zisk, Weapons, Culture and Self-Interest: Soviet Defense Managers in the New Russia (New York: Columbia University Press, 1997), pp. 97-101, 128-29.
114. Simon Saradzhiyan, "Russian Defense Minister Eyes Commercial Enterprises," Defense News, Oct. 12-18, 1998, p. 32;
115. "Russia May Nationalize Industrial Complex Again," Jane's Defence Weekly, Sept. 30, 1998, p. 22.
116. For Maslyukov's views, see his articles, "Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kompleks: Poka Degredatsiia eshche Obratima" (The military-industrial complex's degradation still continues), Pravda, Mar. 6-13, 1998, pp. 32-35;
117. and "Oboronnomu Kompleks Nado Pomoshch'" (The defense complex needs help), VTS, Jan. 19-25, 1998, pp. 32-36, both made available to the author by Dr. Igor Khripunov of the University of Georgia.
118. See also "Maslyukov Takes Over Arms Sales," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, Nov. 25, 1998, pp. 7-8.
119. Saradzhiyan, "Russian Defense Minister Eyes Commercial Enterprises."
120. "Russia May Nationalize Industrial Complex Again," p. 22.
121. FBIS-SOV, Dec. 23, 1998, from Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Dec. 23, 1998,
122. and Kommersant, Dec. 23, 1998.
123. FBIS-SOV, Dec. 1, 1998, from Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Nov. 27, 1998.
124. FBIS-SOV, May 4, 1998; FBIS-SOV, Dec. 1, 1998 (from NTV Nov. 25 note 40); FBIS-SOV, Dec. 16, 1998; FBIS-SOV, Nov. 27, 1998, from Sovershenno Sekretno, Nov. 11, 1998.
125. Stephen Blank, "Valuing the Human Factor: The Reform of Russian Military Manpower," Proceedings of the JINSA-SSI Conference on Manpower and Technology at the End of the 20th Century (Washington, D.C.: Jewish Institute of National Security Affairs, 1998), pp. 36-58;
126. Russia's Armed Forces on the Brink of Reform (Carlisle Barracks, Pa.: Conflict Studies Research Centre, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1998).
127. Nikolai Sokov, Modernization of Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Russia: The Emerging New Posture, Working Paper no. 6, Program on New Approaches to Russian Security, Davis Center for Russian Studies (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University, 1998);
128. Daniel Gouré, "The Evolution of Russian Nuclear Forces: Working to a Plan," Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat, pp. 141-49.
129. Paul Goble, "Moscow Turns Eastward," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Magazine, July 27, 1998.
130. Derek Averre, "NATO Enlargement and Russian National Interests," European Security, Spring 1998, pp. 26-28;
131. FBIS-SOV, Oct. 1, 1998, from Interfax, Sept. 30, 1998.
132. Gouré, "The Evolution of Nuclear Forces"; FBIS-SOV, Oct. 26, 1998, from Izvestiya, Oct. 24, 1998;
133. FBIS-SOV, Sept. 28, 1998, from Izvestiya, Sept. 26, 1998.
134. Turbiville, "Weapons Proliferation and Organized Crime"; FBIS-TAC-98-118, Apr. 29, 1998, from Yedi'ot Aharonot, Apr. 28, 1998;
135. FBIS-TAC-98-057, Mar. 2, 1998, from Izvestiya, Feb. 27, 1998;
136. Stephen Blank, "Russo-Chinese Military Relations and Asian Security," Issues and Studies, Nov. 1997, pp. 87-92;
137. Gertz, "Russia Sells China High-Tech Artillery."
138. FBIS-SOV, May 4, 1998; FBIS-SOV-98-079, Mar. 23, 1998, from Novye Izvestiya, Mar. 19, 1998.
139. Russian Organized Crime, Brovkin, "Fragmentation of Authority," pp. 515-16;
140. Beck, "Russia's Rationality for Developing Export Controls," pp. 37-38, 49.
141. Rensselaer W. Lee III, "Post-Soviet Nuclear Trafficking: Myths, Half-Truths, and the Reality," Current History, Oct. 1995, p. 347;
142. James E. Doyle, "Improving Nuclear Materials Security in the Former Soviet Union: Next Steps for the MP&CA Program," Arms Control Today, Mar. 1998, pp. 12-18;
143. Graham T. Allison et al., Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996);
144. John M. Shields and William C. Potter, eds., Dismantling the Cold War: U.S. and NIS Perspectives on the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1997);
145. Richard A. Falkenrath, Robert D. Newman, and Bradley Thayer, America's Achilles Heel: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1998).
146. Aaron Karp, "Technological Pathways to Ballistic Missiles in Iran," Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat, pp. 178-81.
147. Aaron Karp, "Technological Pathways to Ballistic Missiles in Iran," Ibid. Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat, pp. 178-81.
148. See also Eva Busza, The Dysfunctional State and International Collaboration: New Challenges to National Security Regimes, Working Paper no. 3, Program on New Approaches to Russian Security, Davis Center for Russian Studies (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University, 1997), p. 14.