Trends in retirement age in four countries, 1965-95

Monthly Labor Review

Volumn 121, Issue 8, 1998, Pages 20-30

  Gendell, Murray ^a  

^a GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

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EID: 0001971537     PISSN: 00981818     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. See Murray Gendell and Jacob S. Siegel, "Trends in retirement age by sex, 1950-2005," Monthly Labor Review, July 1992, pp. 22-29; and Murray Gendell and Jacob S. Siegel, "Trends in Retirement Age in the United States, 1955-1993, by Sex and Race," Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences, May 1996, pp. S132-S139.
2. See Murray Gendell and Jacob S. Siegel, "Trends in retirement age by sex, 1950-2005," Monthly Labor Review, July 1992, pp. 22-29; and Murray Gendell and Jacob S. Siegel, "Trends in Retirement Age in the United States, 1955-1993, by Sex and Race," Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences, May 1996, pp. S132-S139.
3. In its international comparisons, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes comparable data on many standard labor force measures for each of the countries in this study, as well as several others. For these comparisons, adjustments are made to each country's published data to provide measures approximately consistent with U.S. definitons and standards. See BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2490 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1997), pp. 111-21.
4. See Gendell and Siegel, "Trends in retirement age by sex," and "Trends in retirement age in the United States."
5. The extent of seasonal variation and its effect on this analysis have not been determined.
6. For Japan, the 1965 and 1970 labor force figures for ages 65 to 69, 70 to 74, and 75 and older were calculated by assuming that the age distribution in the survey data was the same as it was in the census data Estimates for the 1975-95 period for ages 70 to 74 and 75 years and older were calculated similarly. For Sweden, estimates for age 75 and older were made by assuming that the ratio for those 75 and older to those 70 to 74 in the survey was the same as in the census.
7. See Philip L. Rones, "Using the CPS to track retirement trends among older men," Monthly Labor Review, February 1985, pp. 46-49.
8. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), The Transition from Work to Retirement, Social Policy Studies 16 (Paris, OECD, 1995). For more on the OECD, see their official website: http://www.oecd.org
9. Albert I. Hermalin and Bruce A. Christenson, "Census-Based Approaches for Studying Aggregate Changes in Characteristics of the Elderly," Asian and Pacific Population Forum, summer 1992, pp. 35-42 and 58-62.
10. To do this, the Karup-King third-difference formula for osculatory interpolation was used. For background on this method, see Henry S. Shryock, Jacob S. Siegel, and associates, The Methods and Materials of Demography, condensed edition by Edward G. Stockwell (New York, Academic Press, 1976). Also, an example is given in Gendell and Siegel, "Trends in retirement age by sex." Further information about the nature, application, and validity of this measure of the average age at retirement, including its limitations, is provided in Gendell and Siegel, "Trends in retirement age in the United States."
11. To do this, the Karup-King third-difference formula for osculatory interpolation was used. For background on this method, see Henry S. Shryock, Jacob S. Siegel, and associates, The Methods and Materials of Demography, condensed edition by Edward G. Stockwell (New York, Academic Press, 1976). Also, an example is given in Gendell and Siegel, "Trends in retirement age by sex." Further information about the nature, application, and validity of this measure of the average age at retirement, including its limitations, is provided in Gendell and Siegel, "Trends in retirement age in the United States."
12. OECD, The Transition from Work to Retirement, ch. 2, especially p. 14.
13. Ibid., p. 49.
14. Although that has not been done in this article, on the assumption that unemployment is a significant mode of exit from the labor force for the elderly, some indications are presented below of the impact on the average age at exit from the labor force produced by a substantial increase in unemployment.
15. Winfried Schmâhl, Rainer George, and Christiane Oswald, "Gradual Retirement in Germany," in Lei Delsen and Geneviève Reday-Mulvey, eds., Gradual Retirement in the OECD Countries: Macro and Micro Issues and Policies (Aldershot, England and Brookfield, VT, Dartmouth Publishing 1996), p. 76.
16. Hans-Jurgen Krupp, "Social Change and the Development of the Financial Situation of the Social Security System in the Federal Republic of Germany," in B.A. Gustafsson and N. Anders Klevmarken, eds., The Political Economy of Social Security (Amsterdam and New York, Elsevier Science Publishing, 1989), p. 16.
17. Agneta Kruse, "The Pension System," in Tommy Bengtsson, ed., Population, Economy, and Welfare in Sweden (Berlin and New York, Springer-Verlag, 1994), p. 112.
18. The employment-based averages were usually lower than those based on labor force participation rates, but the differences were usually 0.1 or 0.2 year, and occasionally 0.3 year.
19. Isao Shinowada, "Gradual Retirement in Japan: Micro Issues and Policies," in Delsen and Reday-Mulvey, eds., Gradual Retirement in the OECD Countries, p. 160.
20. How much of this change and the one among women (see below) are due to estimation error is difficult to judge. As described earlier, the data for the labor force and the labor force participation rates for ages 65 to 69,70 to 74, and 75 years and older were estimated for 1965 and 1970 and for the ages 70 to 74 and 75 and older for the succeeding dates.
21. See Gendell and Siegel, "Trends in retirement age by sex," and "Trends in retirement age in the United States."
22. See Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "The 2005 labor force: growing, but slowly," Monthly Labor Review, November 1995, p. 35; and Anne E. Polivka and Stephen M. Miller, "The CPS after the redesign: refocusing the economic lens" (unpublished manuscript, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1995).
23. See Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "The 2005 labor force: growing, but slowly," Monthly Labor Review, November 1995, p. 35; and Anne E. Polivka and Stephen M. Miller, "The CPS after the redesign: refocusing the economic lens" (unpublished manuscript, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1995).
24. Eskil Wadensjö, "Gradual Retirement in Sweden," in Delsen and Reday-Mulvey, eds., Gradual Retirement in the OECD Countries, pp. 26-27.
25. It should be noted again, however, that estimation error may have influenced some of the apparent results for men and women in Japan.
26. Because the values of both factors change over time, one cannot account for the change in the length of retirement (calculated as the life expectancy at the average age at retirement) simply by adding the change in the average age at retirement to the change in life expectancy at a specified age (such as age 65, as used here). But when the magnitude of the change in one of the factors is considerably greater than the magnitude of the change in the other, it is clear which factor has had the greater impact.
27. Sheetal Chand and Albert Jaeger, Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes, Occasional Paper 147 (Washington, International Monetary Fund, 1996).
28. Although the definition based on changes in the age structure alone often is used as a broad measure of the elderly dependency burden, it generally is regarded as crude.
29. See, for example, Peter S. Heller, Richard Hemming, and Peter W. Kohnert, Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025 (Washington, International Monetary Fund, 1986); Robert P. Hagemann and Giuseppe Nicoletti, "Population Ageing: Economic Effects and Some Policy Implications for Financing Public Pensions," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 51-96; Alan J. Auerbach, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Robert P. Hagemann, and Guiseppe Nicoletti, "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Economies," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 97-130; World Bank, Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth (New York, Oxford University Press, 1994); Chand and Jaeger, Aging Populations and Public Policy Schemes; and OECD, Ageing in OECD Countries (Paris, OECD, 1996).
30. See, for example, Peter S. Heller, Richard Hemming, and Peter W. Kohnert, Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025 (Washington, International Monetary Fund, 1986); Robert P. Hagemann and Giuseppe Nicoletti, "Population Ageing: Economic Effects and Some Policy Implications for Financing Public Pensions," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 51-96; Alan J. Auerbach, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Robert P. Hagemann, and Guiseppe Nicoletti, "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Economies," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 97-130; World Bank, Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth (New York, Oxford University Press, 1994); Chand and Jaeger, Aging Populations and Public Policy Schemes; and OECD, Ageing in OECD Countries (Paris, OECD, 1996).
31. See, for example, Peter S. Heller, Richard Hemming, and Peter W. Kohnert, Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025 (Washington, International Monetary Fund, 1986); Robert P. Hagemann and Giuseppe Nicoletti, "Population Ageing: Economic Effects and Some Policy Implications for Financing Public Pensions," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 51-96; Alan J. Auerbach, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Robert P. Hagemann, and Guiseppe Nicoletti, "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Economies," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 97-130; World Bank, Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth (New York, Oxford University Press, 1994); Chand and Jaeger, Aging Populations and Public Policy Schemes; and OECD, Ageing in OECD Countries (Paris, OECD, 1996).
32. See, for example, Peter S. Heller, Richard Hemming, and Peter W. Kohnert, Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025 (Washington, International Monetary Fund, 1986); Robert P. Hagemann and Giuseppe Nicoletti, "Population Ageing: Economic Effects and Some Policy Implications for Financing Public Pensions," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 51-96; Alan J. Auerbach, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Robert P. Hagemann, and Guiseppe Nicoletti, "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Economies," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 97-130; World Bank, Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth (New York, Oxford University Press, 1994); Chand and Jaeger, Aging Populations and Public Policy Schemes; and OECD, Ageing in OECD Countries (Paris, OECD, 1996).
33. See, for example, Peter S. Heller, Richard Hemming, and Peter W. Kohnert, Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025 (Washington, International Monetary Fund, 1986); Robert P. Hagemann and Giuseppe Nicoletti, "Population Ageing: Economic Effects and Some Policy Implications for Financing Public Pensions," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 51-96; Alan J. Auerbach, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Robert P. Hagemann, and Guiseppe Nicoletti, "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Economies," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 97-130; World Bank, Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth (New York, Oxford University Press, 1994); Chand and Jaeger, Aging Populations and Public Policy Schemes; and OECD, Ageing in OECD Countries (Paris, OECD, 1996).
34. See, for example, Peter S. Heller, Richard Hemming, and Peter W. Kohnert, Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025 (Washington, International Monetary Fund, 1986); Robert P. Hagemann and Giuseppe Nicoletti, "Population Ageing: Economic Effects and Some Policy Implications for Financing Public Pensions," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 51-96; Alan J. Auerbach, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Robert P. Hagemann, and Guiseppe Nicoletti, "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Economies," OECD Economic Studies, spring 1989, pp. 97-130; World Bank, Averting the Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth (New York, Oxford University Press, 1994); Chand and Jaeger, Aging Populations and Public Policy Schemes; and OECD, Ageing in OECD Countries (Paris, OECD, 1996).
35. Had it been available for the 1960-90 period, dependency burden-3 instead of dependency burden-2 would have been used in table 5.
36. Wadensjö, "Gradual Retirement in Sweden," p. 36.
37. See Klaus Jacobs and Martin Rein, "The Future of Early Retirement: The Federal Republic of Germany," in John Myles and Jill Quadagno, eds., States, Labor Markets, and the Future of Old-Age Policy (Philadelphia, Temple University Press, 1991), pp. 262-63; and Schmähl and others, "Gradual Retirement in Germany,"
38. See Klaus Jacobs and Martin Rein, "The Future of Early Retirement: The Federal Republic of Germany," in John Myles and Jill Quadagno, eds., States, Labor Markets, and the Future of Old-Age Policy (Philadelphia, Temple University Press, 1991), pp. 262-63; and Schmähl and others, "Gradual Retirement in Germany,"
39. Schmähl and others, "Gradual Retirement in Germany."
40. Ibid., p. 91.
41. Ibid., p. 80.
42. John G. Bauer, "How Japan and the Newly Industrialized Economies of Asia are Responding to Labor Scarcity, Asia-Pacific Population Research Report, 3 (Honolulu, East-West Center, 1995).
43. See Linda G. Martin, "The Graying of Japan," Population Bulletin, July 1989, pp. 1-40; and Isao Shinowada, "Gradual Retirement in Japan: Micro Issues and Policies" and Noriyuki Takayama, "Gradual Retirement in Japan: Macro Issues and Policies," in Lei Delsen and Geneviève Reday-Mulvey, eds., Gradual Retirement in OECD Countries.
44. See Linda G. Martin, "The Graying of Japan," Population Bulletin, July 1989, pp. 1-40; and Isao Shinowada, "Gradual Retirement in Japan: Micro Issues and Policies" and Noriyuki Takayama, "Gradual Retirement in Japan: Macro Issues and Policies," in Lei Delsen and Geneviève Reday-Mulvey, eds., Gradual Retirement in OECD Countries.
45. See Linda G. Martin, "The Graying of Japan," Population Bulletin, July 1989, pp. 1-40; and Isao Shinowada, "Gradual Retirement in Japan: Micro Issues and Policies" and Noriyuki Takayama, "Gradual Retirement in Japan: Macro Issues and Policies," in Lei Delsen and Geneviève Reday-Mulvey, eds., Gradual Retirement in OECD Countries.
46. Bauer, "How Japan and the Newly Industrialized Economies of Asia are Responding to Labor Scarcity," p. 11.
47. Takayama, "Gradual Retirement in Japan: Macro Issues and Policies," p. 146.
48. Joseph F. Quinn, Richard V. Burkhauser, and Daniel A. Myers, Passing the Torch: The Influence of Economic Incentives on Work and Retirement (Kalamazoo, MI, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 1990).
49. David A. Wise, "Retirement Against the Demographic Trend: More Older People Living Longer, Working Less, and Saving Less," Demography, February 1997, pp. 83-95 (quotations are from page 94).