Statistics of extreme synoptic-scale wind speeds in ensemble simulations of current and future climate

Journal of Climate

Volumn 17, Issue 23, 2004, Pages 4564-4574

  van den Brink, H W ^a   Konnen G P ^a   Opsteegh, J D ^a  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; STATISTICAL METHODS; STORMS;

CLIMATE MODEL; EXTRATROPICAL WINDS; GREENHOUSE GASES (GHG); WIND SPEED;

WIND;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; GREENHOUSE GAS; JET STREAM; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WIND VELOCITY;

EID: 9744274714     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-3227.1     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Buishand, T A., and C. A. Velds, 1980: Neerslag en Verdamping. Staatsdrukkerij, 206 pp.
2. Coles, S., 2001: An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag, 208 pp.
3. Cook, N. J., 1982: Towards better estimation of extreme winds. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 9, 295-323.
4. Cook, N. J., and R. I. Harris, 2001: Discussion on application of the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme value analysis in wind engineering by J. D. Holmes, W. W. Moriarty. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 89, 215-224.
5. Cook, N. J., R. I. Harris, and R. Whiting, 2003: Extreme wind speeds in mixed climates revisited. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 91, 403-422.
6. de Haan, L., 1990: Fighting the arch-enemy with mathematics. Stat. Neerlandica, 44, 45-68.
7. Dillingh, D., L. de Haan, R. Helmers, G. P. Können, and J. van Malde, 1993: De basispeilen langs de Nederlandse kust; statistisch onderzoek. Tech. Rep. DGW-93.023, Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat, Directoraat-Generaal Rijkswaterstaat, 132 pp.
8. Embrechts, P., C. Klüppelberg, and T. Mikosch, 1997: Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance. Springer-Verlag, 645 pp.
9. Gaza, R. S., and L. F. Bosart, 1990: Trough-merger characteristics over North America. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 314-331.
10. Goosse, H., and T. Fichefet, 1999: Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: A model study. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 23 337-23 355.
11. Hakim, G. J., L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser, 1995: The Ohio Valley wave-merger cyclogenesis event of 25-26 January 1978. Part I: Multiscale case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 2663-2692.
12. Hakim, G. J., D. Keyser, and L. F. Bosart, 1996: The Ohio Valley wave-merger cyclogenesis event of 25-26 January 1978. Part II: Diagnosis using quasigeostrophic potential vorticity inversion. Mon. Wea. Rev. 124, 2176-2205.
13. Hosking, J. R. M., J. R. Wallis, and E. F. Wood, 1985: Estimation of the generalized extreme-value distribution by the method of probability-weighted moments. Technometrics, 27, 251-261.
14. Jenkinson, A. F., 1955: The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) values of Meteorological elements. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 81, 158-171.
15. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
16. Kotz, S., and S. Nadarajah, 2000: Extreme Value Distributions: Theory and Application. Imperial College Press, 185 pp.
17. Langbein, W. B., 1949: Annual floods and the partial-duration flood series. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 30, 879-881.
18. Leadbetter, M. R., G. Lindgren, and H. Rootzén, 1983: Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences and Processes. Springer-Verlag, 336 pp.
19. Nakicenovic, N., Ed., 2000: Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, 595 pp.
20. Opsteegh, J. D., R. J. Haarsma, and F. M. Selten, 1998: ECBilt: A dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models. Tellus, 50A, 348-367.
21. Palutikof, J. P., B. B. Brabson, D. H. Lister, and S. T. Adcock, 1999: A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds. Meteor. Appl., 6, 119-132.
22. Rossi, F., M. Fiorentino, and P. Versace, 1984: Two-component extreme value distribution for flood frequency analysis. Water. Resour. Res. 20, 847-856.
23. Simiu, E., N. A. Heckert, J. J. Filliben, and S. K. Johnson, 2001: Extreme wind local estimates based on the Gumbel distribution of dynamic pressures: An assessment. Struct. Saf., 23, 221-229.
24. van den Brink, H. W., G. P. Können, and J. D. Opsteegh, 2003: The reliability of extreme surge levels, estimated from observational records of order hundred years. J. Coastal Res., 19, 376-388.
25. 4-year surge level estimates using data of the ECMWF seasonal prediction system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17210, doi: 10.1029/2004GL020610.