Shrinking fields: Cropland loss in a world of eight billion

Worldwatch Paper

Volumn , Issue 131, 1996, Pages

  Gardner, Gary ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 8844252418     PISSN: 02708019     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (159)

1. Clive Ponting, "Historical Perspectives on Sustainable Development," Environment, November 1990.
2. Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1996: The Trends that are Shaping Our Future (New York: W.W. Norton, 1996).
3. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply, and Distribution (PS&D) (electronic database) (Washington, D.C., May 10, 1996). Grain self-sufficiency is measured as the ratio of production of total grains to consumption of total grains, 1969-71 average and 1993-95 average.
4. China from George P. Brown, "Arable Land Loss in Rural China," in Asian Survey, October 1995; U.S. from Natural Resources Conservation Service, Summary Report: 1992 National Resources Inventory (Washington, D.C.: USDA, January 1995).
5. China from George P. Brown, "Arable Land Loss in Rural China," in Asian Survey, October 1995; U.S. from Natural Resources Conservation Service, Summary Report: 1992 National Resources Inventory (Washington, D.C.: USDA, January 1995).
6. USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 3.
7. Carl Zoerb, "The Virgin Land Territory: Plans, Performance, Prospects," in Roy D. Laird, ed., Soviet Agriculture: The Permanent Crisis (New York: Praeger, 1965). Yield share is a Worldwatch calculation based on data in Lester Brown et al., Vital Signs 1995: The Trends that are Shaping Our Future, (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), and Brown et al., op. cit. note 2.
8. Carl Zoerb, "The Virgin Land Territory: Plans, Performance, Prospects," in Roy D. Laird, ed., Soviet Agriculture: The Permanent Crisis (New York: Praeger, 1965). Yield share is a Worldwatch calculation based on data in Lester Brown et al., Vital Signs 1995: The Trends that are Shaping Our Future, (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), and Brown et al., op. cit. note 2.
9. Carl Zoerb, "The Virgin Land Territory: Plans, Performance, Prospects," in Roy D. Laird, ed., Soviet Agriculture: The Permanent Crisis (New York: Praeger, 1965). Yield share is a Worldwatch calculation based on data in Lester Brown et al., Vital Signs 1995: The Trends that are Shaping Our Future, (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995), and Brown et al., op. cit. note 2.
10. Grain price decreases from International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics Yearbook (Washington, D.C., 1994), and IMF, International Financial Statistics (Washington, D.C.: May 1996); price changes were: rice, down 36%; wheat, down 13%; corn, down 16%; grain price increases from IMF, May 1996, op. cit. this note; price comparison is for first quarter 1995 and first quarter 1996: wheat was up 34%, corn 52%, and rice 32%.
11. Grain price decreases from International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics Yearbook (Washington, D.C., 1994), and IMF, International Financial Statistics (Washington, D.C.: May 1996); price changes were: rice, down 36%; wheat, down 13%; corn, down 16%; grain price increases from IMF, May 1996, op. cit. this note; price comparison is for first quarter 1995 and first quarter 1996: wheat was up 34%, corn 52%, and rice 32%.
12. Yield trends from USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 3.
13. Grain harvested area from USDA PS&D, op. cit. note 3; population from Francis Urban and Ray Nightingale, "World Population by Country and Region, 1950-90 and Projections to 2050" (Washington, D.C.: Economic Research Service, USDA, April 1993); one hectare (ha) is equivalent in area to 1.39 soccer fields; 0.12 is roughly equal to 16.7% (one-sixth) of a soccer field.
14. Grain harvested area from USDA PS&D, op. cit. note 3; population from Francis Urban and Ray Nightingale, "World Population by Country and Region, 1950-90 and Projections to 2050" (Washington, D.C.: Economic Research Service, USDA, April 1993); one hectare (ha) is equivalent in area to 1.39 soccer fields; 0.12 is roughly equal to 16.7% (one-sixth) of a soccer field.
15. Falling reserves from Lester R. Brown et al, op. cit. note 2; grain consumption from USDA PS&D, op. cit. note 3.
16. Falling reserves from Lester R. Brown et al, op. cit. note 2; grain consumption from USDA PS&D, op. cit. note 3.
17. Department of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: the 1992 Revision (New York, 1993); fastest urban expansion from Eugene Linden, "The Exploding Cities of the Developing World," Foreign Affairs, January/February 1996.
18. Department of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: the 1992 Revision (New York, 1993); fastest urban expansion from Eugene Linden, "The Exploding Cities of the Developing World," Foreign Affairs, January/February 1996.
19. Dipasis Bhadra and Antonio Salazar P. Brandao, "Urbanization, Agricultural Development, and Land Allocation," World Bank Discussion Paper 201 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1993).
20. Asian growth from IMF, World Economic Outlook May 1996, (Washington, 1996).
21. USDA estimate from Scott Thompson, "The Evolving Grain Markets in Southeast Asia," in Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, D.C.: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, June 1995); Java population, office space, and housing from Tommy Firman and Ida Ayu Indira Dharmapatni, "The Challenges to Sustainable Development in Jakarta Metropolitan Region," Habitat International, vol. 18, no. 3.
22. USDA estimate from Scott Thompson, "The Evolving Grain Markets in Southeast Asia," in Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, D.C.: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, June 1995); Java population, office space, and housing from Tommy Firman and Ida Ayu Indira Dharmapatni, "The Challenges to Sustainable Development in Jakarta Metropolitan Region," Habitat International, vol. 18, no. 3.
23. Projected loss is Worldwatch calculation based on data in Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Production Yearbook 1994 (Rome, 1994); population estimate from Urban and Nightingale, op. cit. note 9; Prime Minister from "Development vs. Agriculture in Battle over Vietnam's Land," Earth Island Journal, Winter 1995-96.
24. Projected loss is Worldwatch calculation based on data in Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Production Yearbook 1994 (Rome, 1994); population estimate from Urban and Nightingale, op. cit. note 9; Prime Minister from "Development vs. Agriculture in Battle over Vietnam's Land," Earth Island Journal, Winter 1995-96.
25. Projected loss is Worldwatch calculation based on data in Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Production Yearbook 1994 (Rome, 1994); population estimate from Urban and Nightingale, op. cit. note 9; Prime Minister from "Development vs. Agriculture in Battle over Vietnam's Land," Earth Island Journal, Winter 1995-96.
26. Brown, op. cit. note 4. Arable land in China is officially listed as 96 million ha, but this is widely acknowledged to be understated. Estimates of actual cropped area range from 123 million ha to as high as 150 million. Following the work of Vaclav Smil, this paper assumes cropland area to be 130 million ha. See Smil, "Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs" (Honolulu: East-West Center, April 1996).
27. Brown, op. cit. note 4. Arable land in China is officially listed as 96 million ha, but this is widely acknowledged to be understated. Estimates of actual cropped area range from 123 million ha to as high as 150 million. Following the work of Vaclav Smil, this paper assumes cropland area to be 130 million ha. See Smil, "Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs" (Honolulu: East-West Center, April 1996).
28. Current underreporting from Brown, op. cit. note 4; earlier estimates of land loss from Shujie Yao, Agricultural reform and grain prices in China (London: St. Martin's Press, 1994), who reported losses of 500,000 ha (net) per year, or 1.33 million ha (gross) between 1952 and the late 1970s; World Bank, China: Agriculture to the Year 2000 (Washington, 1985), which reported losses of about a million ha per year to non-agricultural uses between 1959 and 1978; and Vaclav Smil, op. cit. note 16, who reports gross losses of nearly 30 million ha between 1957 and 1977 (1.5 million ha per year).
29. Current underreporting from Brown, op. cit. note 4; earlier estimates of land loss from Shujie Yao, Agricultural reform and grain prices in China (London: St. Martin's Press, 1994), who reported losses of 500,000 ha (net) per year, or 1.33 million ha (gross) between 1952 and the late 1970s; World Bank, China: Agriculture to the Year 2000 (Washington, 1985), which reported losses of about a million ha per year to non-agricultural uses between 1959 and 1978; and Vaclav Smil, op. cit. note 16, who reports gross losses of nearly 30 million ha between 1957 and 1977 (1.5 million ha per year).
30. Current underreporting from Brown, op. cit. note 4; earlier estimates of land loss from Shujie Yao, Agricultural reform and grain prices in China (London: St. Martin's Press, 1994), who reported losses of 500,000 ha (net) per year, or 1.33 million ha (gross) between 1952 and the late 1970s; World Bank, China: Agriculture to the Year 2000 (Washington, 1985), which reported losses of about a million ha per year to non-agricultural uses between 1959 and 1978; and Vaclav Smil, op. cit. note 16, who reports gross losses of nearly 30 million ha between 1957 and 1977 (1.5 million ha per year).
31. Current underreporting from Brown, op. cit. note 4; earlier estimates of land loss from Shujie Yao, Agricultural reform and grain prices in China (London: St. Martin's Press, 1994), who reported losses of 500,000 ha (net) per year, or 1.33 million ha (gross) between 1952 and the late 1970s; World Bank, China: Agriculture to the Year 2000 (Washington, 1985), which reported losses of about a million ha per year to non-agricultural uses between 1959 and 1978; and Vaclav Smil, op. cit. note 16, who reports gross losses of nearly 30 million ha between 1957 and 1977 (1.5 million ha per year).
32. Smil, op. cit. note 16.
33. Brown, op. cit. note 4. The share of China's land is a Worldwatch calculation that assumes total cropped area of 130 million ha.
34. Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4; American Farmland Trust (AFT), "Farming on the Edge" (Washington, D.C., June 1994); USDA, "U.S. Agricultural Exports and Imports," Agricultural Outlook, May 1996.
35. Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4; American Farmland Trust (AFT), "Farming on the Edge" (Washington, D.C., June 1994); USDA, "U.S. Agricultural Exports and Imports," Agricultural Outlook, May 1996.
36. Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4; American Farmland Trust (AFT), "Farming on the Edge" (Washington, D.C., June 1994); USDA, "U.S. Agricultural Exports and Imports," Agricultural Outlook, May 1996.
37. AFT, "Alternatives for Future Urban Growth in California's Central Valley: The Bottom Line for Agriculture and Taxpayers" (Washington, D.C., October 1995); California loss estimate from Department of Conservation, State of California, Farmland Conversion Report (Sacramento, various years); L.A. County from Valerie Berton, "Harvest or Homes? AFT Research Highlights Need to Protect Ag as Central Valley Grows," American Farmland (Washington, D.C.: AFT, Fall 1995).
38. AFT, "Alternatives for Future Urban Growth in California's Central Valley: The Bottom Line for Agriculture and Taxpayers" (Washington, D.C., October 1995); California loss estimate from Department of Conservation, State of California, Farmland Conversion Report (Sacramento, various years); L.A. County from Valerie Berton, "Harvest or Homes? AFT Research Highlights Need to Protect Ag as Central Valley Grows," American Farmland (Washington, D.C.: AFT, Fall 1995).
39. AFT, "Alternatives for Future Urban Growth in California's Central Valley: The Bottom Line for Agriculture and Taxpayers" (Washington, D.C., October 1995); California loss estimate from Department of Conservation, State of California, Farmland Conversion Report (Sacramento, various years); L.A. County from Valerie Berton, "Harvest or Homes? AFT Research Highlights Need to Protect Ag as Central Valley Grows," American Farmland (Washington, D.C.: AFT, Fall 1995).
40. China from Odil Tunali, "A Billion Cars: The Road Ahead," World Watch, January/February 1996; Vietnam from Jeremy Grant, "Vietnam Trebles Car Import Quota," Financial Times, January 12, 1996.
41. China from Odil Tunali, "A Billion Cars: The Road Ahead," World Watch, January/February 1996; Vietnam from Jeremy Grant, "Vietnam Trebles Car Import Quota," Financial Times, January 12, 1996.
42. Road estimates based on data in International Road Federation, World Road Statistics 1989-1993 (Washington, D.C., 1994) and American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Washington, D.C., 1995).
43. Road estimates based on data in International Road Federation, World Road Statistics 1989-1993 (Washington, D.C., 1994) and American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Washington, D.C., 1995).
44. Thailand from James Fahn, "Fore!" The Nation, January 14, 1994, and Anita Pleumarom, "Course and Effect," The Ecologist, May/June 1992; Japan from Philip Shenon, "FORE! Golf in Asia Hits Environmental Rough," New York Times, October 22, 1994.
45. Thailand from James Fahn, "Fore!" The Nation, January 14, 1994, and Anita Pleumarom, "Course and Effect," The Ecologist, May/June 1992; Japan from Philip Shenon, "FORE! Golf in Asia Hits Environmental Rough," New York Times, October 22, 1994.
46. Thailand from James Fahn, "Fore!" The Nation, January 14, 1994, and Anita Pleumarom, "Course and Effect," The Ecologist, May/June 1992; Japan from Philip Shenon, "FORE! Golf in Asia Hits Environmental Rough," New York Times, October 22, 1994.
47. Analysis modeled on that found in Pierre Crosson and Jock Anderson, "Resources and Global Food Prospects: Supply and Demand for Cereals to 2030," World Bank Technical Paper Number 184 (Washington: World Bank, 1992). Land use patterns vary greatly from city to city; the 0.05 ha estimate is at best very rough. Urban population figures from United Nations, World Demographic Estimates and Projections, 1950-2025 (New York, 1988).
48. Analysis modeled on that found in Pierre Crosson and Jock Anderson, "Resources and Global Food Prospects: Supply and Demand for Cereals to 2030," World Bank Technical Paper Number 184 (Washington: World Bank, 1992). Land use patterns vary greatly from city to city; the 0.05 ha estimate is at best very rough. Urban population figures from United Nations, World Demographic Estimates and Projections, 1950-2025 (New York, 1988).
49. Ashali Varma, "Target: 600 New Cities by the Year 2010," The Earth Times, April 15-30, 1996; population increase from Urban and Nightingale, op. cit. note 9.
50. Ashali Varma, "Target: 600 New Cities by the Year 2010," The Earth Times, April 15-30, 1996; population increase from Urban and Nightingale, op. cit. note 9.
51. Worldwatch calculation, based on data in Department of Conservation, op. cit. note 21, and Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4.
52. Worldwatch calculation, based on data in Department of Conservation, op. cit. note 21, and Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4.
53. Irrigation's share of world food from Sandra Postel, "Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy," State of the World 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1996); irrigation's share of past output from Pierre Crosson, "Future Supplies of Land and Water for World Agriculture," revision of a paper presented at a conference of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in February 1994 (Washington: Resources for the Future, August 1994).
54. Irrigation's share of world food from Sandra Postel, "Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy," State of the World 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1996); irrigation's share of past output from Pierre Crosson, "Future Supplies of Land and Water for World Agriculture," revision of a paper presented at a conference of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in February 1994 (Washington: Resources for the Future, August 1994).
55. The FAO Production Yearbook 1994 (Rome, 1994) shows a decline in global irrigated area for 1992-93 of 0.6 percent. Irrigated area for
56. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, however, which is registered as declining in the FAO yearbooks, is reported by the World Bank to have increased between 1990 and 1994. If FAO data is adjusted using the World Bank data, global irrigated area shows a slight decline of 0.2 percent. Deceleration in irrigation growth from FAO, State of Food and Agriculture 1993 (Rome, 1993).
57. Yuri Markish, Agriculture and Trade Analysis Division, Economic Research Service, USDA, personal communication, June 4, 1996.
58. Department of Conservation, State of California, Farmland Conversion Report, 1990-92 (Sacramento, June 1994).
59. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
60. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
61. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
62. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
63. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
64. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
65. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
66. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
67. Area affected by overpumping is a Worldwatch estimate based on data in the following: Libya from World Resources Institute et al., World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment 1996-97 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996); Arabian Peninsula from Jamil al Alawi and Mohammed Abdulrazzak, "Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives," in Peter Rogers and Peter Lydon, Water in the Arab World (Cambridge, MA: Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994); California from Pacific Institute, California Water 2020: A Sustainable Vision (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 1995); High Plains from Allan Burns, United States Geological Survey, personal communication, June 18, 1996, and U.S. Geological Survey, "Water-Level Changes in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 1994," at Web address http://h2o.usgs.gov/public/wid/FS_215-95/FS_215-95.html; North China from Ye Yongyi, "Policies for Sustainable Water Resources Development in the North China Region," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Towards an Environmentally Sound and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Asia and the Pacific, Water Resources Series no. 71 (Bangkok, 1992), and Xu Zhifang, unpublished paper prepared for the World Water Council-Interim Founding Committee, March 1995; India from B.H. Dhawan, "Magnitude of Groundwater Exploitation," Economic and Political Weekly, April 8, 1995, and S.P. Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, personal communication, June 17, 1996; Iran from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects Upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Nairobi, 1994).
68. Arabian Peninsula from al Alawi and Abdulrazzak, op. cit. note 32.
69. J.T. Musick, F.B. Pringle, W.L. Harman, and B.A. Stewart, "Long-Term Irrigation Trends - Texas High Plains," Applied Engineering in Agriculture, November 1990.
70. World Bank, Rapid Urban Environmental Assessment: Lessons from Cities in the Developing World, vol. 1, (Washington, D.C., 1994); Ren Guanzhao, "Urban Water Supply in China," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Urban Water Resources Management, Water Resources Series no. 72 (New York, 1993); Patrick Tyler, "China's Fickle Rivers: Dry Farms, Needy Industry Bring a Water Crisis," New York Times, May 23, 1996.
71. World Bank, Rapid Urban Environmental Assessment: Lessons from Cities in the Developing World, vol. 1, (Washington, D.C., 1994); Ren Guanzhao, "Urban Water Supply in China," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Urban Water Resources Management, Water Resources Series no. 72 (New York, 1993); Patrick Tyler, "China's Fickle Rivers: Dry Farms, Needy Industry Bring a Water Crisis," New York Times, May 23, 1996.
72. World Bank, Rapid Urban Environmental Assessment: Lessons from Cities in the Developing World, vol. 1, (Washington, D.C., 1994); Ren Guanzhao, "Urban Water Supply in China," in United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Urban Water Resources Management, Water Resources Series no. 72 (New York, 1993); Patrick Tyler, "China's Fickle Rivers: Dry Farms, Needy Industry Bring a Water Crisis," New York Times, May 23, 1996.
73. The reduction was likely greater than 25 percent. See Steve van Beek, The Chao Phya: River in Transition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995). Share of Thai harvested area from USDA PS&D, op. cit. note 3.
74. The reduction was likely greater than 25 percent. See Steve van Beek, The Chao Phya: River in Transition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995). Share of Thai harvested area from USDA PS&D, op. cit. note 3.
75. Dennis Rule, Tucson Water Department, Tucson, AZ, personal communication, April 29, 1996; Gary Bostrom, Water Resources Department, Colorado Springs, CO, personal communication, April 29, 1996; Penn Loh and Anna Steding, "The Palo Verde Test Land Fallowing Program: A Model for Future California Water Transfers?" (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, March 1996).
76. Dennis Rule, Tucson Water Department, Tucson, AZ, personal communication, April 29, 1996; Gary Bostrom, Water Resources Department, Colorado Springs, CO, personal communication, April 29, 1996; Penn Loh and Anna Steding, "The Palo Verde Test Land Fallowing Program: A Model for Future California Water Transfers?" (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, March 1996).
77. Dennis Rule, Tucson Water Department, Tucson, AZ, personal communication, April 29, 1996; Gary Bostrom, Water Resources Department, Colorado Springs, CO, personal communication, April 29, 1996; Penn Loh and Anna Steding, "The Palo Verde Test Land Fallowing Program: A Model for Future California Water Transfers?" (Oakland, CA: Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, March 1996).
78. Ministry of the Environment, The Environment in Israel (Jerusalem, 1992), and "The Environment in Israel," Israel Environment Bulletin Spring-Summer 1994; India from Marcus Moench, "Approaches to Groundwater Management: To Control or Enable?" Economic and Political Weekly, September 24, 1994; China from Smil, op. cit. note 16.
79. Ministry of the Environment, The Environment in Israel (Jerusalem, 1992), and "The Environment in Israel," Israel Environment Bulletin Spring-Summer 1994; India from Marcus Moench, "Approaches to Groundwater Management: To Control or Enable?" Economic and Political Weekly, September 24, 1994; China from Smil, op. cit. note 16.
80. Ministry of the Environment, The Environment in Israel (Jerusalem, 1992), and "The Environment in Israel," Israel Environment Bulletin Spring-Summer 1994; India from Marcus Moench, "Approaches to Groundwater Management: To Control or Enable?" Economic and Political Weekly, September 24, 1994; China from Smil, op. cit. note 16.
81. Ministry of the Environment, The Environment in Israel (Jerusalem, 1992), and "The Environment in Israel," Israel Environment Bulletin Spring-Summer 1994; India from Marcus Moench, "Approaches to Groundwater Management: To Control or Enable?" Economic and Political Weekly, September 24, 1994; China from Smil, op. cit. note 16.
82. Worldwatch calculation based on population data from Urban and Nightingale, op. cit. note 9, and from Fred Pearce, "High and Dry in Aswan, New Scientist, July 7, 1994. Pearce reports that the average flow of the Nile in the 1980s was 76 billion cubic meters. Nile flow is commonly cited as 84 billion cubic meters.
83. Worldwatch calculation based on population data from Urban and Nightingale, op. cit. note 9, and from Fred Pearce, "High and Dry in Aswan, New Scientist, July 7, 1994. Pearce reports that the average flow of the Nile in the 1980s was 76 billion cubic meters. Nile flow is commonly cited as 84 billion cubic meters.
84. Operations Evaluation Department; "A Review of World Bank Experience in Irrigation" (Washington: World Bank, November 3, 1994).
85. Robert Goodland, "Environmental Sustainability Needs Renewable Energy: The Extent to Which Big Hydro is Part of the Transition," paper presented to the International Crane Foundation Workshop, Washington, D.C., November 28-December 2, 1995.
86. Paul Raskin, Evan Hansen, and Robert Margolis, Water and Snstainability: A Global Outlook, Polestar Series Report No. 4 (Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute, 1995).
87. United Nations study is L.R. Oldeman et al., World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An Explanatory Note, 2nd ed. (Wageningen, Netherlands, and Nairobi: International Soil Reference and Information Centre and United Nations Environment Programme, 1991); study of Asia is Anthony Young, Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Rome: FAO, 1994).
88. United Nations study is L.R. Oldeman et al., World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An Explanatory Note, 2nd ed. (Wageningen, Netherlands, and Nairobi: International Soil Reference and Information Centre and United Nations Environment Programme, 1991); study of Asia is Anthony Young, Land Degradation in South Asia: Its Severity, Causes, and Effects upon the People, World Soil Resources Reports 78 (Rome: FAO, 1994).
89. Strong and extreme degradation from L.R. Oldeman, personal communication, September 21, 1995; production capacity of lost area is a Worldwatch calculation that assumes a modest yield of 3 tons per hectare, and that 1 ton will feed three people; today's losses from Sara J. Scherr and Satya Yadav, "Land Degradation in the Developing World: Implications for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment to 2020," Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 14 (Washington: IFPRI, May 1996), and Oldeman, op. cit. note 43.
90. Strong and extreme degradation from L.R. Oldeman, personal communication, September 21, 1995; production capacity of lost area is a Worldwatch calculation that assumes a modest yield of 3 tons per hectare, and that 1 ton will feed three people; today's losses from Sara J. Scherr and Satya Yadav, "Land Degradation in the Developing World: Implications for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment to 2020," Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 14 (Washington: IFPRI, May 1996), and Oldeman, op. cit. note 43.
91. Strong and extreme degradation from L.R. Oldeman, personal communication, September 21, 1995; production capacity of lost area is a Worldwatch calculation that assumes a modest yield of 3 tons per hectare, and that 1 ton will feed three people; today's losses from Sara J. Scherr and Satya Yadav, "Land Degradation in the Developing World: Implications for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment to 2020," Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 14 (Washington: IFPRI, May 1996), and Oldeman, op. cit. note 43.
92. Worldwatch calculation based on a methodology suggested in Pierre Crosson, "Soil Erosion and Its On-Farm Productivity Consequences: What Do We Know?" Discussion Paper 95-29 (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, June 1995), and on Oldeman, op. cit. note 44.
93. Worldwatch calculation based on a methodology suggested in Pierre Crosson, "Soil Erosion and Its On-Farm Productivity Consequences: What Do We Know?" Discussion Paper 95-29 (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, June 1995), and on Oldeman, op. cit. note 44.
94. Oldeman, op. cit. note 43; net and gross erosion from Crosson, op. cit. note 45.
95. Oldeman, op. cit. note 43; net and gross erosion from Crosson, op. cit. note 45.
96. China from Vaclav Smil, "Environmental Problems in China: Estimates of Economic Costs" (Honolulu: East-West Center, April 1996),
97. and Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1995; Russia from Sergei Bobyliev and Bo Libert, "Prospects for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Integration in Russia," Agriculture and the Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 1994); Iran from Young, op.cit. note 43; Pakistan from H. E. Dregne, "Erosion and Soil Productivity in Asia," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, January-February 1992, and Young, op. cit. note 43; Haiti from Thomas A. White and Jon L. Jickling, "An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Soil Conservation in Haiti," in Ernst Lutz, Stefano Pagiola, and Carlos Reiche, eds., Economic and Institutional Analyses of Soil Conservation Projects in Central America and the Caribbean, World Bank Environment Paper Number 8 (Washington, D.C., 1994); Australia from F. Ghassemi, A.J. Jakeman, and H.A. Nix, Salinisation of Land and Water Resources: Human Causes, Extent, Management, and Case Studies (Wallingford, Oxon, UK: CAB International, 1995), and Arthur and Jeanette Conacher, Rural Land Degradation in Australia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
98. and Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1995; Russia from Sergei Bobyliev and Bo Libert, "Prospects for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Integration in Russia," Agriculture and the Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 1994); Iran from Young, op.cit. note 43; Pakistan from H. E. Dregne, "Erosion and Soil Productivity in Asia," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, January-February 1992, and Young, op. cit. note 43; Haiti from Thomas A. White and Jon L. Jickling, "An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Soil Conservation in Haiti," in Ernst Lutz, Stefano Pagiola, and Carlos Reiche, eds., Economic and Institutional Analyses of Soil Conservation Projects in Central America and the Caribbean, World Bank Environment Paper Number 8 (Washington, D.C., 1994); Australia from F. Ghassemi, A.J. Jakeman, and H.A. Nix, Salinisation of Land and Water Resources: Human Causes, Extent, Management, and Case Studies (Wallingford, Oxon, UK: CAB International, 1995), and Arthur and Jeanette Conacher, Rural Land Degradation in Australia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
99. and Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1995; Russia from Sergei Bobyliev and Bo Libert, "Prospects for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Integration in Russia," Agriculture and the Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 1994); Iran from Young, op.cit. note 43; Pakistan from H. E. Dregne, "Erosion and Soil Productivity in Asia," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, January-February 1992, and Young, op. cit. note 43; Haiti from Thomas A. White and Jon L. Jickling, "An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Soil Conservation in Haiti," in Ernst Lutz, Stefano Pagiola, and Carlos Reiche, eds., Economic and Institutional Analyses of Soil Conservation Projects in Central America and the Caribbean, World Bank Environment Paper Number 8 (Washington, D.C., 1994); Australia from F. Ghassemi, A.J. Jakeman, and H.A. Nix, Salinisation of Land and Water Resources: Human Causes, Extent, Management, and Case Studies (Wallingford, Oxon, UK: CAB International, 1995), and Arthur and Jeanette Conacher, Rural Land Degradation in Australia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
100. and Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1995; Russia from Sergei Bobyliev and Bo Libert, "Prospects for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Integration in Russia," Agriculture and the Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 1994); Iran from Young, op.cit. note 43; Pakistan from H. E. Dregne, "Erosion and Soil Productivity in Asia," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, January-February 1992, and Young, op. cit. note 43; Haiti from Thomas A. White and Jon L. Jickling, "An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Soil Conservation in Haiti," in Ernst Lutz, Stefano Pagiola, and Carlos Reiche, eds., Economic and Institutional Analyses of Soil Conservation Projects in Central America and the Caribbean, World Bank Environment Paper Number 8 (Washington, D.C., 1994); Australia from F. Ghassemi, A.J. Jakeman, and H.A. Nix, Salinisation of Land and Water Resources: Human Causes, Extent, Management, and Case Studies (Wallingford, Oxon, UK: CAB International, 1995), and Arthur and Jeanette Conacher, Rural Land Degradation in Australia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
101. and Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1995; Russia from Sergei Bobyliev and Bo Libert, "Prospects for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Integration in Russia," Agriculture and the Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 1994); Iran from Young, op.cit. note 43; Pakistan from H. E. Dregne, "Erosion and Soil Productivity in Asia," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, January-February 1992, and Young, op. cit. note 43; Haiti from Thomas A. White and Jon L. Jickling, "An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Soil Conservation in Haiti," in Ernst Lutz, Stefano Pagiola, and Carlos Reiche, eds., Economic and Institutional Analyses of Soil Conservation Projects in Central America and the Caribbean, World Bank Environment Paper Number 8 (Washington, D.C., 1994); Australia from F. Ghassemi, A.J. Jakeman, and H.A. Nix, Salinisation of Land and Water Resources: Human Causes, Extent, Management, and Case Studies (Wallingford, Oxon, UK: CAB International, 1995), and Arthur and Jeanette Conacher, Rural Land Degradation in Australia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
102. and Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1995; Russia from Sergei Bobyliev and Bo Libert, "Prospects for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Integration in Russia," Agriculture and the Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 1994); Iran from Young, op.cit. note 43; Pakistan from H. E. Dregne, "Erosion and Soil Productivity in Asia," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, January-February 1992, and Young, op. cit. note 43; Haiti from Thomas A. White and Jon L. Jickling, "An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Soil Conservation in Haiti," in Ernst Lutz, Stefano Pagiola, and Carlos Reiche, eds., Economic and Institutional Analyses of Soil Conservation Projects in Central America and the Caribbean, World Bank Environment Paper Number 8 (Washington, D.C., 1994); Australia from F. Ghassemi, A.J. Jakeman, and H.A. Nix, Salinisation of Land and Water Resources: Human Causes, Extent, Management, and Case Studies (Wallingford, Oxon, UK: CAB International, 1995), and Arthur and Jeanette Conacher, Rural Land Degradation in Australia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
103. and Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1995; Russia from Sergei Bobyliev and Bo Libert, "Prospects for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Integration in Russia," Agriculture and the Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 1994); Iran from Young, op.cit. note 43; Pakistan from H. E. Dregne, "Erosion and Soil Productivity in Asia," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, January-February 1992, and Young, op. cit. note 43; Haiti from Thomas A. White and Jon L. Jickling, "An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Soil Conservation in Haiti," in Ernst Lutz, Stefano Pagiola, and Carlos Reiche, eds., Economic and Institutional Analyses of Soil Conservation Projects in Central America and the Caribbean, World Bank Environment Paper Number 8 (Washington, D.C., 1994); Australia from F. Ghassemi, A.J. Jakeman, and H.A. Nix, Salinisation of Land and Water Resources: Human Causes, Extent, Management, and Case Studies (Wallingford, Oxon, UK: CAB International, 1995), and Arthur and Jeanette Conacher, Rural Land Degradation in Australia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
104. and Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle, "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, November 1995; Russia from Sergei Bobyliev and Bo Libert, "Prospects for Agricultural and Environmental Policy Integration in Russia," Agriculture and the Environment in the Transition to a Market Economy (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 1994); Iran from Young, op.cit. note 43; Pakistan from H. E. Dregne, "Erosion and Soil Productivity in Asia," Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, January-February 1992, and Young, op. cit. note 43; Haiti from Thomas A. White and Jon L. Jickling, "An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Soil Conservation in Haiti," in Ernst Lutz, Stefano Pagiola, and Carlos Reiche, eds., Economic and Institutional Analyses of Soil Conservation Projects in Central America and the Caribbean, World Bank Environment Paper Number 8 (Washington, D.C., 1994); Australia from F. Ghassemi, A.J. Jakeman, and H.A. Nix, Salinisation of Land and Water Resources: Human Causes, Extent, Management, and Case Studies (Wallingford, Oxon, UK: CAB International, 1995), and Arthur and Jeanette Conacher, Rural Land Degradation in Australia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
105. Oldeman, op. cit. note 43.
106. 160 million ha from Per Pinstrup Andersen and Rajul Pandya-Lorch, "Alleviating Poverty, Intensifying Agriculture, and Effectively Managing Natural Resources," Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 1 (Washington, D.C.: Food Policy Research Institute, 1994); Philippines from Maria Concepcion Cruz et al., "Population Growth, Poverty, and
107. 160 million ha from Per Pinstrup Andersen and Rajul Pandya-Lorch, "Alleviating Poverty, Intensifying Agriculture, and Effectively Managing Natural Resources," Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 1 (Washington, D.C.: Food Policy Research Institute, 1994); Philippines from Maria Concepcion Cruz et al., "Population Growth, Poverty, and Environmental Stress: Frontier Migration in the Philippines and Costa Rica" (Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute, 1992).
108. Miguel A. Altieri, Agroecology: The Scientific Basis of Alternative Agriculture (Boulder: Westview Special Studies in Agriculture, Science, and Policy); Africa and Southeast Asia from Joy Tivy, Agricultural Ecology (Essex, UK: Longman Scientific and Technical, 1990).
109. Miguel A. Altieri, Agroecology: The Scientific Basis of Alternative Agriculture (Boulder: Westview Special Studies in Agriculture, Science, and Policy); Africa and Southeast Asia from Joy Tivy, Agricultural Ecology (Essex, UK: Longman Scientific and Technical, 1990).
110. "Low-potential" lands from Andersen and Pandya-Lorch, op. cit. note 49; shifting cultivation from N.C. Brady, "Making Agriculture a Sustainable Industry," in Clive A. Edwards et al., Sustainable Agricultural Systems (Ankeny, Iowa: Soil and Water Conservation Society, 1990) .
111. "Low-potential" lands from Andersen and Pandya-Lorch, op. cit. note 49; shifting cultivation from N.C. Brady, "Making Agriculture a Sustainable Industry," in Clive A. Edwards et al., Sustainable Agricultural Systems (Ankeny, Iowa: Soil and Water Conservation Society, 1990) .
112. Sandra Postel, State of the World 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1996); Central Asia yields from FAO, State of Food and Agriculture 1995 (Rome, 1995).
113. Sandra Postel, State of the World 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1996); Central Asia yields from FAO, State of Food and Agriculture 1995 (Rome, 1995).
114. Worldwatch calculation based on land loss data in Oldeman, op. cit. note 43.
115. Calculated from data in FAO, FAO Production Yearbook, (Rome, various years).
116. Grainland area decline from USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 3; other foods from FAO, op. cit. note 54; Figure 3 from FAO, FAO Production Yearbook (Rome, various years), and from USDA, op. cit. note 3.
117. Grainland area decline from USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 3; other foods from FAO, op. cit. note 54; Figure 3 from FAO, FAO Production Yearbook (Rome, various years), and from USDA, op. cit. note 3.
118. Grainland area decline from USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 3; other foods from FAO, op. cit. note 54; Figure 3 from FAO, FAO Production Yearbook (Rome, various years), and from USDA, op. cit. note 3.
119. Grainland area decline from USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 3; other foods from FAO, op. cit. note 54; Figure 3 from FAO, FAO Production Yearbook (Rome, various years), and from USDA, op. cit. note 3.
120. USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 3. World grain yields increased by 79 percent between 1964 and 1994, while soybean yields increased by 63 percent.
121. Meal share of soybeans from USDA, "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade" (Washington, D.C.: Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, October 1995); grain to livestock from Lester R. Brown, "World Feedgrain Use Drops," in Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1996).
122. Meal share of soybeans from USDA, "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade" (Washington, D.C.: Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, October 1995); grain to livestock from Lester R. Brown, "World Feedgrain Use Drops," in Lester R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1996).
123. Fruits and vegetables from FAO, op. cit. 54; China based on data in Lester R. Brown, Who Will Feed China? (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995).
124. Area increases from FAO, op. cit. note 52; industrial crops from Lewrene Glaser, Charles Plummer, and Donald Van Dyne, "Industry Expands Use of Agricultural Commodities," Agricultural Outlook, January-February 1996.
125. Projection made using population data from Urban and Nightingale, op. cit. note 9.
126. Contracting Kazakh area from USDA, PS&D, op. cit note 3, and FAO, op. cit. note 52.
127. Contracting Kazakh area from USDA, PS&D, op. cit note 3, and FAO, op. cit. note 52.
128. CRP area from Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4; Everglades from John H. Cushman, "Clinton Backing Vast Effort to Restore Florida Swamps," New York Times, February 18, 1996, and Elizabeth Levitan Spaid and Kirk Nielsen, "Florida Cane Farmers Sour on Everglades Restoration," Christian Science Monitor, February 21, 1996.
129. CRP area from Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4; Everglades from John H. Cushman, "Clinton Backing Vast Effort to Restore Florida Swamps," New York Times, February 18, 1996, and Elizabeth Levitan Spaid and Kirk Nielsen, "Florida Cane Farmers Sour on Everglades Restoration," Christian Science Monitor, February 21, 1996.
130. CRP area from Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4; Everglades from John H. Cushman, "Clinton Backing Vast Effort to Restore Florida Swamps," New York Times, February 18, 1996, and Elizabeth Levitan Spaid and Kirk Nielsen, "Florida Cane Farmers Sour on Everglades Restoration," Christian Science Monitor, February 21, 1996.
131. George P. Brown, op. cit. note 4.
132. Roughly half of the CRP land is classified as "highly credible cultivated cropland." This paper assumes that the rest, some 7 million ha, is sustainably cultivable, using careful practices. See USDA, "1992 National Resources Inventory - Highlights," information sheet (Washington, D.C., July 13, 1994). The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) estimates that buffer strips covering 2.5 million ha - one-sixth the size of the current CRP land - could provide a minimum level of environmental protection, which would release a greater amount of CRP land for farming. It acknowledges, however, that environmental goals such as wildlife protection would not be met through a buffer strip program. See GAO, "Conservation Reserve Program: Alternatives are Available for Managing Environmentally Sensitive Cropland," Report to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, U.S. Senate (Washington, D.C., February 1995). European setaside grain area of approximately 4 million ha calculated from data in USDA, "Grain: World Markets and Trade," Foreign Agricultural Service, Circular Series FG 6-96 (Washington, D.C., June 1996).
133. Roughly half of the CRP land is classified as "highly credible cultivated cropland." This paper assumes that the rest, some 7 million ha, is sustainably cultivable, using careful practices. See USDA, "1992 National Resources Inventory - Highlights," information sheet (Washington, D.C., July 13, 1994). The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) estimates that buffer strips covering 2.5 million ha - one-sixth the size of the current CRP land - could provide a minimum level of environmental protection, which would release a greater amount of CRP land for farming. It acknowledges, however, that environmental goals such as wildlife protection would not be met through a buffer strip program. See GAO, "Conservation Reserve Program: Alternatives are Available for Managing Environmentally Sensitive Cropland," Report to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, U.S. Senate (Washington, D.C., February 1995). European setaside grain area of approximately 4 million ha calculated from data in USDA, "Grain: World Markets and Trade," Foreign Agricultural Service, Circular Series FG 6-96 (Washington, D.C., June 1996).
134. Roughly half of the CRP land is classified as "highly credible cultivated cropland." This paper assumes that the rest, some 7 million ha, is sustainably cultivable, using careful practices. See USDA, "1992 National Resources Inventory - Highlights," information sheet (Washington, D.C., July 13, 1994). The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) estimates that buffer strips covering 2.5 million ha - one-sixth the size of the current CRP land - could provide a minimum level of environmental protection, which would release a greater amount of CRP land for farming. It acknowledges, however, that environmental goals such as wildlife protection would not be met through a buffer strip program. See GAO, "Conservation Reserve Program: Alternatives are Available for Managing Environmentally Sensitive Cropland," Report to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, U.S. Senate (Washington, D.C., February 1995). European setaside grain area of approximately 4 million ha calculated from data in USDA, "Grain: World Markets and Trade," Foreign Agricultural Service, Circular Series FG 6-96 (Washington, D.C., June 1996).
135. Nikos Alexandratos, ed., World Agriculture: Towards 2010 (Rome: FAO, 1995).
136. Nigel Smith, Rainforest Corridors: The TransAmazon Colonization Scheme (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1982); Douglas Ian Stewart, After the Trees: Living on the Transamazon Highway (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1994); Bruce Babbitt, "Amazon Grace," The New Republic, June 25, 1990.
137. Nigel Smith, Rainforest Corridors: The TransAmazon Colonization Scheme (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1982); Douglas Ian Stewart, After the Trees: Living on the Transamazon Highway (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1994); Bruce Babbitt, "Amazon Grace," The New Republic, June 25, 1990.
138. Nigel Smith, Rainforest Corridors: The TransAmazon Colonization Scheme (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1982); Douglas Ian Stewart, After the Trees: Living on the Transamazon Highway (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1994); Bruce Babbitt, "Amazon Grace," The New Republic, June 25, 1990.
139. Junus Kartasubrata, "Indonesia," in Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the Humid Tropics (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1993).
140. Virginia H. Dale, Richard A. Houghton, Alan Grainger, Ariel E. Lugo, and Sandra Brown, "Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Tropical Deforestation and Subsequent Uses of the Land," in National Research Council, Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the Humid Tropics (Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1993).
141. Alexandratos, op. cit. note 65.
142. FAO, Report on the 1980 World Census of Agriculture, Census Bulletin No. 22 (Rome, April 1986).
143. Lester R. Brown and Hal Kane, Full House: Reassessing the Earth's Population Carrying Capacity (New York: W.W. Norton).
144. Worldwatch calculation based on data in USDA, PS&D, op. cit. note 3. Other calculations are as follows: Oilseeds - If global oilseed yields rise as they have over the past 15 years, and if per capita consumption rises only half as fast as it did in that period, roughly 40 million ha of harvested area - an area the size of Paraguay - will be needed by 2010 to meet the additional demand. Luxury and Non-food Crops - If the area dedicated to sugar, coffee, cocoa, tea, and hops (luxury crops) rises at the same rate to 2010 as it has since 1980, another 7 million ha will be needed. For non-food crops, the equivalent calculation results in more than 5 million ha required.
145. European policies from Margaret Rosso Grossman and Wim Brussaard, eds., Agrarian Land Law in the Western World (Wallingford, UK: CAB International, 1992); UK from William Howarth and Christopher P. Rodgers, eds., Agriculture, Conservation and Land Use (Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 1993).
146. European policies from Margaret Rosso Grossman and Wim Brussaard, eds., Agrarian Land Law in the Western World (Wallingford, UK: CAB International, 1992); UK from William Howarth and Christopher P. Rodgers, eds., Agriculture, Conservation and Land Use (Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 1993).
147. AFT, "Alternatives for Future Urban Growth in California's Central Valley: The Bottom Line for Agriculture and Taxpayers" (Washington: AFT, October 1995).
148. Howarth and Rodgers, op. cit. note 73.
149. Charles Beretz, AFT, Washington, D.C., personal communication, June 13, 1996, and Jennifer Dempsey, AFT, Northampton, MA, personal communication, June 12, 1996.
150. Charles Beretz, AFT, Washington, D.C., personal communication, June 13, 1996, and Jennifer Dempsey, AFT, Northampton, MA, personal communication, June 12, 1996.
151. "AFT Joins Pennsylvania Farm Link Effort," American Farmland, Spring 1996.
152. USDA, "1992 National Resources Inventory: Highlights," Soil Conservation Service, July 13, 1994.
153. Conservation tillage use from Conservation Technology Information Center (CTIC), "1994 National Crop Residue Management Survey, Executive Summary" (West Lafayette, IN, 1994); reduction in erosion from Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4.
154. Conservation tillage use from Conservation Technology Information Center (CTIC), "1994 National Crop Residue Management Survey, Executive Summary" (West Lafayette, IN, 1994); reduction in erosion from Natural Resources Conservation Service, op. cit. note 4.
155. Dr. William Liebhardt, University of California at Davis, personal communication, May 20, 1996;
156. "Intensive Micro-Farming May Help Fill Tables in Third World," Christian Science Monitor, October 16, 1987.
157. Waste rate from Margaret Biswas, "Agriculture and Environment: A Review, 1972-1992," Ambio, May 1994; grainbag from Joseph Axelrod, GrainPro, Inc., Boston, MA, private communication, July 31, 1995.
158. Waste rate from Margaret Biswas, "Agriculture and Environment: A Review, 1972-1992," Ambio, May 1994; grainbag from Joseph Axelrod, GrainPro, Inc., Boston, MA, private communication, July 31, 1995.
159. Share of grain to livestock from Lester R. Brown et al., op. cit. note 20.