Model Validation and Testing: Past Lessons, Present Concerns, Future Prospects

Models in Ecosystem Science

Volumn , Issue , 2021, Pages 184-203

  Gardner, Robert H ^a   Urban, Dean L ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE   (United States)

^b DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85195906768     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (57)

1. Aber, J.D. 1997. Why don’t we believe the models? Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 78: 232-233.
2. Burnham, K.P., and D.R. Anderson. 1998. Model Selection and Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. New York: Springer.
3. Burrough, P.A., R. van Rijn, and M. Rikken. 1996. Spatial data quality and error analysis issues: GIS functions and environmental modeling. Pp, 29-34 in M.F. Goodchild, L. Steyaert, B. Parks, C. Johnston, D. Maidment, M. Crane, and S. Glendinning, editors. GIS and Environmental Modeling Progress and Research Issues. Fort Collins: GIS World Books.
4. Campbell, J.B. 1996. Introduction to Remote Sensing. 2d ed. New York: The Guilford Press.
5. Caswell, H. 1976. The validation problem. Pp. 313-325 in B.C. Patten, editor. Systems Analysis and Simulation in Ecology. New York: Academic Press.
6. Caswell, H. 1988. Theory and models in ecology: A different perspective. Ecological Modelling 43: 33-44.
7. Caswell, H., and M.C. Trevisan. 1994. Sensitivity analysis of periodic matrix models. Ecology 75: 1299-1303.
8. Cherrill, A., and C. McClean. 1995. An investigation of uncertainty in-field habitat mapping and the implications for detecting land-cover change. Landscape Ecology 10: 5-21.
9. Child, G.K., and H.H. Shugart. 1972. Frequency response analysis of magnesium cycling in a tropical forest ecosystem. Pp. 102-135 in B.C. Patten, editor. Systems Analysis and Simulation in Ecology. New York: Academic Press.
10. Chipman, H.A., E.I. George, and R.E. McCulloch. 1998. Bayesian CART model search. Journal of the American Statistical Association 93: 935-948.
11. Costanza, R., and T. Maxwell. 1994. Resolution and predictability: An approach to the scaling problem. Landscape Ecology 9: 47-57.
12. Dale, V.H., H.I. Jager, R.H. Gardner, and A.E. Rosen. 1988. Using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to improve predictions of broad-scale forest development. Ecological Modelling 42: 165-178.
13. Deutsch, C.V., and A.G. Joumel. 1998. GSLIB: Geostatistical Software Library and User's Guide. New York: Oxford University Press.
14. Dobson, A.J. 1990. An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models. Boca Raton: Chapman and Hall.
15. Funderlic, R.E., and M.T. Heath. 1971. Linear compartmental analysis of ecosystems. IBP Report 7104. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
16. Gardner, R.H., R.V. O'Neill, J.B. Mankin, and J.H. Carney. 1981. A comparison of sensitivity analysis and error analysis based on a stream ecosystem model. Ecological Modelling 12: 177-194.
17. Gelman, A., J.B. Carlin, H.S. Stern, and D.B. Rubin. 1995. Bayesian Data Analysis. London: Chapman and Hall.
18. Giavelli, G., O. Rossi, and E. Siri. 1988. Stability of natural communities: Loop analysis and computer-simulation approach. Ecological Modelling 40: 131-143.
19. Goodall, D.W. 1972. Building and testing ecosystem models. Pp. 173-194 in J.N.R. Jeffers, editor. Mathematical Models in Ecology. Oxford: Blackwell.
20. Haefner, J.W. 1996. Modeling Biological Systems: Principles and Applications. New York: Chapman and Hall.
21. Hakanson, L. 1996. A general method to define confidence limits for model predictions based on validations. Ecological Modelling 91: 153-168.
22. Hall, C.A.S., H. Tian, Y. Qi, G. Pontius, and J. Cornell. 1995. Modelling spatial and temporal patterns of tropical land use change. Journal of Biogeography 22: 753-757.
23. Henderson-Sellers, A., M.F. Wilson, and G. Thomas. 1985. The effect of spatial resolution on archives of land cover type. Climate Change 7: 391-402.
24. Henebry, G.M. 1995. Spatial model error analysis using autocorrelation indices. Ecological Modelling 82: 75-91.
25. Hilbom, R., and M. Mangel. 1997. The Ecological Detective: Confronting Models with Data. Monographs in Population Biology 28. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
26. HPS (High Performance Systems, Inc.) 2000. Stella. Hanover, NH.
27. Hwang, D.M., H.A. Karimi, and D.W. Byun. 1998. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models within GIS environments. Computers and Geosciences 24: 119-130.
28. Janssen, P.H.M., and P.S.C. Heuberger. 1995. Calibration of process-oriented models. Ecological Modelling 83: 55-66.
29. Klepper, O. 1997. Multivariate aspects of model uncertainty analysis: Tools for sensitivity analysis and calibration. Ecological Modelling 101: 1-13.
30. Kemp, W.M., J.E. Petersen, and R.H. Gardner. 2001. Scale-dependence and the problem of extrapolation: Implications for experimental and natural coastal ecosystems. Pp. 3-57 in R.H. Gardner, W.M. Kemp, V.S. Kennedy, and J.E. Petersen, editors. Scaling Relations in Experimental Ecology. New York: Columbia University Press.
31. Lane, P. 1986. Symmetry, change, perturbation, and observation mode in natural communities. Ecology 67: 223-239.
32. Leggett, R.W., and L.R. Williams. 1981. A reliability index for models. Ecological Modelling 13: 303-312.
33. Levins, R. 1966. The strategy of model building in population biology. American Scientist 54: 421-431.
34. Lynn, H., C.L. Mohler, S.D. DeGloria, and C.E. McCulloch. 1995. Error assessment in decision-tree models applied to vegetation analysis. Landscape Ecology 10: 323-335.
35. Mankin, J.B., R.V. O'Neill, H.H. Shugart, and B.W. Rust. 1975. The importance of validation in ecosystem analysis. Pp. 63-71 in G.S. Innis, editor. New Directions in the Analysis of Ecological Systems. Part 1. Simulation Councils Proceedings Series. LaJolla, CA: Society for Computer Simulation (Simulation Councils).
36. Miller, D.R., G. Butler, and L. Bramall. 1976. Validation of ecological system models. Journal of Environmental Management 4: 383-401.
37. Monserud, R.A., and R. Leemans. 1992. Comparing global vegetation maps with the kappa-statistic. Ecological Modelling 62: 275-293.
38. Monte, L., L. Hakanson, U. Bergstrom, J. Brittain, and R. Heling. 1996. Uncertainty analysis and validation of environmental models: The empirically based uncertainty analysis. Ecological Modelling 91: 139-152.
39. Olson, J.S. 1963. Analog computer model for movement of nuclides through ecosystems. Pp. 121-125 in V. Schultz and A. Klement, editors. Radioecology. New York: Reinhold.
40. Oreskes, N., K. Shrader-Frechette, and K. Belitz. 1994. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences. Science 263: 641-646.
41. Overton, S. 1977. A strategy of model construction. Pp. 49-73 in C. Hall and J. Day, editors. Ecosystem Modeling in Theory and Practice: An Introduction with Case Histories. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
42. Pearce, J., and S. Ferrier. 2000. Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling 133: 225-245.
43. Pontius, R.G. 2000. Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 66: 1011-1016.
44. Pontius, R.G., and L.C. Schneider. 2001. Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 85: 239-248.
45. Power, M. 1993. The predictive validation of ecological and environmental models. Ecological Modelling 68: 33-50.
46. Rose, K.A., and E.P. Smith. 1998. Statistical assessment of model goodness-of-fit using permutation tests. Ecological Modelling 106: 129-139.
47. Rose, K.A., and G.L. Swartzman. 1981. A Review of Parameter Sensitivity Methods Applicable to Ecosystem Models. NUREG/CR-2016. Washington, DC: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
48. Rossi, R.E., P.W. Borth, and J.J. Tollefson. 1993. Stochastic simulation for characterizing ecological spatial patterns and appraising risk. Ecological Applications 3: 719-735.
49. Rykiel, E.J. 1996. Testing ecological models: The meaning of validation. Ecological Modelling 90: 229-244.
50. Smith, E.P., and K.A. Rose. 1995. Model goodness-of-fit analysis using regression and related techniques. Ecological Modelling 77: 49-64.
51. Tomovic, R., and W.J. Karplus. 1963. Sensitivity Analysis of Dynamic Systems. New York: McGraw-Hill.
52. Turner, M.G., R.V. O'Neill, R.H. Gardner, and B.T. Milne. 1989. Effects of changing spatial scale on the analysis of landscape pattern. Landscape Ecology 3: 153-162.
53. Urban, D.L., C. Miller, P.N. Halpin, and N.L. Stephenson. 2000. Forest gradient response in Sierran landscapes: The physical template. Landscape Ecology 15: 603-620.
54. Vayssieres, M.P., R.E. Plant, and B.H. Allen-Diaz. 2000. Classification trees: An alternative non-parametric approach for predicting species distributions. Journal of Vegetation Science 11: 679-694.
55. Wiegert, R.G. 1975. Simulation modeling of the algal-fly components of a thermal ecosystem: Effects of spatial heterogeneity, time delays, and model condensation. Pp. 157-181 in B.C. Patten, editor. Systems Analysis and Simulation in Ecology. New York: Academic Press.
56. Wilder, J.W. 1999. A predictive model for gypsy moth population dynamics with model validation. Ecological Modelling 116: 165-181.
57. Yee, T.W., and N.D. Mitchell. 1991. Generalized additive models in plant ecology. Journal of Vegetation Science 2: 587-602.