Resource requirements for reintroducing elective surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic: modelling study

British Journal of Surgery

Volumn 108, Issue 1, 2021, Pages 97-103

  Fowler, A J ^a   Dobbs, T D ^b,c   Wan, Y I ^a   Laloo, R ^d   Hui, S ^a   Nepogodiev, D ^e   Bhangu, A ^e   Whitaker, I S ^b,c   Pearse, R M ^a   Abbott, T E F ^a  

^a QUEEN MARY UNIVERSITY OF LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b SWANSEA UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^c MORRISTON HOSPITAL   (United Kingdom)

^d LEEDS GENERAL INFIRMARY   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019; COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS; ELECTIVE SURGERY; EMERGENCY SURGERY; HEALTH CARE COST; HOSPITAL ADMISSION; HUMAN; INTENSIVE CARE UNIT; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MIDDLE AGED; OPERATING ROOM PERSONNEL; PANDEMIC; PREOPERATIVE CARE; SCREENING TEST; SURGICAL TECHNIQUE; DIAGNOSIS; ECONOMICS; ENGLAND; EPIDEMIOLOGY; HOSPITAL COST; HOSPITALIZATION; PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT; STATISTICAL MODEL; TIME TO TREATMENT;

COVID-19; COVID-19 TESTING; ELECTIVE SURGICAL PROCEDURES; ENGLAND; FACILITIES AND SERVICES UTILIZATION; HOSPITAL COSTS; HOSPITALIZATION; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PANDEMICS; PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT; PREOPERATIVE CARE; SARS-COV-2; TIME-TO-TREATMENT;

EID: 85101001765     PISSN: 00071323     EISSN: 13652168     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/bjs/znaa012     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet 2020;395:507-513
2. Søreide K, Hallet J, Matthews JB, Schnitzbauer AA, Line PD, Lau PBS et al. Immediate and long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delivery of surgical services. Br J Surg 2020;107: 1250-1261
3. Abu Hilal M, Besselink MG, Lemmers DHL, Taylor MA, Triboldi A. Early look at the future of healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic. Br J Surg 2020;107:e197
4. COVIDSurg Collaborative. Global guidance for surgical care during the COVID-19 pandemic. Br J Surg 2020;107:1097-1103
5. Abbott TEF, Fowler AJ, Dobbs TD, Harrison EM, Gillies MA, Pearse RM. Frequency of surgical treatment and related hospital procedures in the UK: a national ecological study using hospital episode statistics. Br J Anaesth 2017;119:249-257
6. Fowler AJ, Abbott TEF, Prowle J, Pearse RM. Age of patients undergoing surgery. Br J Surg 2019;106:1012-1018
7. NHS England. Clinical Guide to Surgical Prioritisation During the Coronavirus Pandemic. https://ascnuk.com/_userfiles/ pages//files/resources//c0221specialtyguidesurgicalprioritisa tionv1.pdf (accessed 25 May 2020)
8. Spinelli A, Pellino G. COVID-19 pandemic: perspectives on an unfolding crisis. Br J Surg 2020;107:785-787
9. COVIDSurg Collaborative. Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans. Br J Surg 2020;107:1440-1449
10. NHS England. Important-for Action-Second Phase of NHS Response to COVID19. https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/ wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/04/second-phase-ofnhs-response-to-covid-19-letter-to-chief-execs-29-april-2020. pdf (accessed 20 May 2020)
11. Arons MM, Hatfield KM, Reddy SC, Kimball A, James A, Jacobs JR et al. Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and transmission in a skilled nursing facility. N Engl J Med 2020;382:2081-2090
12. Mizumoto K, Kagaya K, Zarebski A, Chowell G. Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020. Euro Surveill 2020;25:2000180
13. Shields A. SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in health care workers. MedRxiv 2020
14. Treibel T. COVID-19: PCR screening of asymptomatic healthcare workers at London hospital. Lancet 2020;395:1608-1610
15. Mayol J, Fernandez Perez C. Elective surgery after the pandemic: waves beyond the horizon. Br J Surg 2020;107:1091-1093
16. Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre. ICNARC Report on COVID-19 in Critical Care 08 May 2020. https://www. icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b8c18e7de791-ea11-9125-00505601089b (accessed 25 May 2020)
17. COVIDSurg Collaborative. Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARSCoV-2 infection: an international cohort study. Lancet 2020;396: 27-38
18. Fowler AJ, Dobbs TD, Wan Y, Laloo R, Hui S, Nepogodiev D et al. Estimated surgical requirements in England after COVID-19: a modelling study using hospital episode statistics. MedRxiv 2020
19. International Surgical Outcomes Study Group. Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle-and high-income countries. Br J Anaesth 2016;117: 601-609
20. Pearse RM, Moreno RP, Bauer P, Pelosi P, Metnitz P, Spies C et al. Mortality after surgery in Europe: a 7 day cohort study. Lancet 2012;380:1059-1065
21. Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre. Summary Statistics. http://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/ Reports/Summary-Statistics (accessed 20 May 2020)
22. Lima DS, Ribeiro MAF Jr, Gallo G, Di Saverio S. Role of chest CT in patients with acute abdomen during the COVID-19 era. Br J Surg 2020;107:e196
23. Royal College of Radiologists. Statement on Use of CT Chest to Screen for COVID-19 in Pre-operative Patients. http://www.rcr. ac.uk/college/coronavirus-covid-19-what-rcr-doing/clinical-in formation/role-ct-chest/role-ct-screening-0 (accessed 17 May 2020)
24. Jessop ZM, Dobbs TD, Ali SR, Combellack E, Clancy R, Ibrahim N et al. Personal protective equipment (PPE) for surgeons during COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of availability, usage, and rationing. Br J Surg 2020;107:1262-1280
25. NHS Improvement. National Cost Collection for the NHS. https:// improvement.nhs.uk/resources/national-cost-collection/ (accessed 11May 2020)
26. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Costing Statement: Implementing the NICE Guideline on Transition between Inpatient Hospital Settings and Community or Care Home Settings for Adults with Social Care Needs (NG27 ). https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng27/resources/cost ing-statement-2187244909 (accessed 19 May 2020)
27. NHS Improvement. Reference Costs 2017/18: Highlights, Analysis and Introduction to the Data. https://improvement.nhs.uk/documents/ 1972/1_-_Reference_costs_201718.pdf (accessed 19 May 2020)
28. NHS Improvement. National Tariff Payment System: National Prices and Prices for Emergency Care Services. https:// improvement.nhs.uk/resources/national-tariff/ (accessed 19 May 2020)
29. Medical Supplies Company. http://www.medistock.co.uk (accessed 17 May 2020)
30. NHS England. NHS Referral to Treatment (RTT) Waiting Times Data March 2020. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wpcontent/ uploads/sites/2/2020/05/Mar20-RTT-SPN-publicationversion. pdf (accessed 24 May 2020)
31. The Kings Fund. The NHS Budget and How It Has Changed. http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/nhs-in-a-nutshell/nhsbudget (accessed 23 May 2020)
32. Leung K, Wu JT, Liu D, Leung GM. First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment. Lancet 2020;395:1382-1393
33. Cano-Valderrama O, Morales X, Ferrigni CJ, Martín-Antona E, Turrado V, García A et al. Reduction in emergency surgery activity during COVID-19 pandemic in three Spanish hospitals. Br J Surg 2020;107:e239