Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis

Journal of Medical Virology

Volumn 92, Issue 6, 2020, Pages 645-659

  Fang, Yaqing ^a   Nie, Yiting ^b   Penny, Marshare ^c  

^a PEOPLE S HOSPITAL OF HANGZHOU MEDICAL COLLEGE   (China)

^b HARBIN MEDICAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c CALIFORNIA BAPTIST UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

basic reproductive number; COVID 19; data fitting; data simulation; effective reproductive number; effectiveness; intervention; SARS CoV 2; SEIR; sensitivity analysis; transmission

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CHINA; CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019; CORONAVIRUS INFECTION; CURVE FITTING; EARLY DIAGNOSIS; EARLY INTERVENTION; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; GOVERNMENT; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HOSPITAL ADMISSION; HUMAN; INFECTION CONTROL; INFECTION PREVENTION; ISOLATION; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; SAFETY PROCEDURE; SARS-RELATED CORONAVIRUS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS 2; SIMULATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; BETACORONAVIRUS; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; GOVERNMENT REGULATION; ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT; PANDEMIC; PATHOGENICITY; SEVERITY OF ILLNESS INDEX; SOCIAL DISTANCE; STATISTICAL MODEL; VIRUS PNEUMONIA;

BETACORONAVIRUS; CHINA; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CORONAVIRUS INFECTIONS; DISEASE SUSCEPTIBILITY; GOVERNMENT REGULATION; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PANDEMICS; PNEUMONIA, VIRAL; SEVERITY OF ILLNESS INDEX; SOCIAL DISTANCE;

EID: 85081740101     PISSN: 01466615     EISSN: 10969071     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25750     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Li Q The 2019-nCoV Outbreak Joint Field Epidemiology Investigation Team. An Outbreak of NCIP (2019-nCoV) Infection in China—Wuhan, Hubei Province, 2019-2020. China CDC Weekly. 2020;2(5):79-80.
2. Tan WJ, Zhao X, Ma XJ, et al. A novel coronavirus genome identified in a cluster of pneumonia cases—Wuhan, China 2019−2020. China CDC Wkly. 2020;2(4):61-62. http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/ccdcw/2020/4/61
3. World Health Organization. WHO Director-General's remarks at the media briefing on 2019-nCoV on 11 February 2020. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-2019-ncov-on-11-february-2020. Accessed February 11, 2020.
4. Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7
5. World Health Organization. Statement on the Second Meeting of the International Health Regulations. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov). Accessed February 4, 2020.
6. National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. The updates of COVID-19 as of 29 February, 2020. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202003/9d462194284840ad96ce75eb8e4c8039.shtml. Accessed March 1, 2020.
7. World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report (40). https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200229-sitrep-40-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=849d0665_2. Accessed March 1, 2020.
8. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. [published online ahead of print January 29, 2020]. N Engl J Med. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
9. Roberts MG, Nishiura H. Nishiura, early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand. PLoS One. 2011;6:e17835.
10. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science. 2003;300(5627):1966-1970.
11. Read JM, Bridgen JRE, Cummings DAT, Ho A, Jewell CP. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. medRxiv. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549. Preprint online January 24, 2020.
12. Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet. 2020;395:689-697.
13. Nature. Coronavirus latest: scientists scramble to study virus samples. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w. Accessed February 4, 2020.
14. Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, et al. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: a data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;92:214-217.
15. Ma ZE, Zhou YC, Wang WD, et al. Mathematical Modeling of Epidemic Dynamics. Beijing, China: Science Press; 2004.
16. Qian G, Mahdi A. Sensitivity analysis methods in the biomedical sciences. Math Biosci. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108306
17. Wallinga J, Lipsitch M. How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc R Soc B. 2007;274:599-604.
18. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan,China. Lancet. 2020;395(10223):497-506. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5
19. Chinanews. The progress of COVID-19 by Wuhan Health Commission. http://www.chinanews.com/shipin/2019/12-31/news843209.shtml. Accessed February 5, 2020.
20. Chan JF, Yuan S, Kok KH, et al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. Lancet. 2020;395:514-523.
21. Xie Z. Data fitting and scenario analysis of vaccination in the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2019;10(3):187-201.
22. Chinanews. National Health Commssion: the average latency of 2019-nCoV is about 7 days. http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2020/01-22/9067014.shtml. Accessed February 2, 2020.
23. Sina. Beijing has discharged nine patients with pneumonia infected with the new coronavirus, with an average stay of 10.25 days. http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2020-02-01/doc-iimxxste8097489.shtml. Accessed February 3, 2020.
24. Chinadaily. Several provinces have downgraded public health emergency response level. http://cnews.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/24/WS5e531de4a3107bb6b57a1bef.html. Accessed February 28, 2020.
25. National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. The updates of COVID-19 as of 17 February, 2020. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/20200/261f72a74be14c4db6e1b582133cf4b7.shtml. Accessed March 3, 2020.
26. Getz WM, Salter R, Mgbara W. Adequacy of SEIR models when epidemics have spatial structure: Ebola in Sierra Leone. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2019;374(1775):20180282.
27. Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China. Press Conference of 2019-nCoV by National Health Commission of People's Republic of China. http://www.most.gov.cn/kjbgz/202002/t20200205_151401.htm. Accessed February 4, 2020.
28. Wang D, Hu B, Hu C, et al. Clinical characteristics of 138 hospitalized patients with 2019 Novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.1585
29. Jin YH, Cai L, Cheng ZS, et al. A rapid advice guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia (standard version). Mil Med Res. 2020;7(1):4.
30. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet. 2020;395:497-506.
31. 0). Emerging Infect Dis. 2019;25:1-4.
32. Hindustantimes. More novel coronavirus cases reported daily outside China than inside: WHO. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/coronavirus-outbreak-update-more-novel-coronavirus-cases-reported-daily-outside-china-than-inside-who/story-VN2iFxRjbD2C7rAIr1eVUP.html. Accessed February 28, 2020.
33. Centers for disease control and prevention. CDC confirms possible instance of community spread of COVID-19 in U.S. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0226-Covid-19-spread.html. Accessed February 28, 2020.
34. Government of People's Republic of China. The diagnosis and treatment plan for NCIP. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/05/content_5474791.htm. Accessed February 5, 2020.