Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study

The Lancet

Volumn 394, Issue 10195, 2019, Pages 322-331

  Weiss, Daniel J ^a   Lucas, Tim C D ^a   Nguyen, Michele ^a   Nandi, Anita K ^a   Bisanzio, D ^b,c   Battle, Katherine E ^a   Cameron, Ewan ^a   Twohig, Katherine A ^a   Pfeffer, Daniel A ^d   Rozier, Jennifer A ^a   Gibson, Harry S ^a   Rao, Puja C ⁱ   Casey, Daniel ^e   Bertozzi Villa, Amelia ^f   Collins, Emma L ^a   Dalrymple, Ursula ^g   Gray, N ^h   Harris, Joseph R ^a   Howes, Rosalind E ^a   Kang, Sun Yun ^a   Keddie, Suzanne H ^a   May, Daniel ^a   Rumisha, S ^a   Thorn, Michael P ^a   Barber, Ryan ⁱ   Fullman, N ⁱ   Huynh, Chantal K ⁱ   Kulikoff, Xie ⁱ   Kutz, Michael J ⁱ   Lopez, Alan D ⁱ   Mokdad, A H ⁱ   Naghavi, Mohsen ⁱ   Nguyen, G ⁱ   Shackelford, Katya Anne ⁱ   Vos, Theo ⁱ   Wang, Haidong ⁱ   Smith, David L ⁱ   Lim, Stephen S ⁱ   Murray, Christopher J L ⁱ   Bhatt, S ^j   Hay, Simon I ⁱ   Gething, Peter W ^a   more..

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b RTI INTERNATIONAL   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^d MENZIES SCHOOL OF HEALTH RESEARCH   (Australia)

^e Pub Health Seattle and King County   (United States)

^f INSTITUTE FOR DISEASE MODELING   (United States)

^g PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

^h Instruct: An Integrated Structural Biology Infrastructure for Europe   (United Kingdom)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^j IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; ARTICLE; ASIA; CHILD; CONTROLLED STUDY; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY; DISEASE BURDEN; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; HEALTH CARE; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INFANT; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALARIA; MEDICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM; MORTALITY; NEWBORN; PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; PLASMODIUM VIVAX; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; WESTERN HEMISPHERE; GLOBAL HEALTH; MALARIA FALCIPARUM; ORGANIZATION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TRENDS;

AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES; GLOBAL HEALTH; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MALARIA, FALCIPARUM; MORTALITY; ORGANIZATIONAL OBJECTIVES; PREVALENCE; SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 85069647522     PISSN: 01406736     EISSN: 1474547X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Bhatt, S, Weiss, DJ, Cameron, E, et al. The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015. Nature 526 (2015), 207–211.
2. WHO. World Malaria Report 2017. WHO Global Malaria Programme. https://www.who.int/malaria/publications/world-malaria-report-2018/en/, 2018. (Accessed 28 May 2019)
3. Tatem, AJ, Gething, PW, Smith, DL, Hay, SI, Urbanization and the global malaria recession. Malar J, 12, 2013, 133.
4. Gething, PW, Patil, A, Smith, DL, et al. A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010. Malar J, 10, 2011, 378.
5. Hay, SI, Guerra, CA, Gething, PW, et al. A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007. PLoS Med, 6, 2009, e1000048.
6. Battle, KE, Lucas, TCD, Nguyen, M, et al. Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study. Lancet, 2019 published online June 19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31096-7.
7. GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 355 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 382 (2018), 1789–1858.
8. GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age- and sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 382 (2018), 1684–1735.
9. Gething, PW, Casey, DC, Weiss, DJ, et al. Mapping Plasmodium falciparum mortality in Africa between 1990 and 2015. N Engl J Med 375 (2016), 2435–2445.
10. Dalrymple, U, Mappin, B, Gething, PW, Malaria mapping: understanding the global endemicity of falciparum and vivax malaria. BMC Medicine, 13, 2015, 140.
11. Guerra, CA, Hay, SI, Lucioparedes, LS, et al. Assembling a global database of malaria parasite prevalence for the Malaria Atlas Project. Malar J, 6, 2007, 17.
12. GBD 2017 Cause of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 382 (2018), 1736–1788.
13. Weiss, DJ, Bhatt, S, Mappin, B, et al. Air temperature suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa 2000–2012: a high-resolution spatiotemporal prediction. Malar J, 13, 2014, 171.
14. Weiss, DJ, Mappin, B, Dalrymple, U, et al. Re-examining environmental correlates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity: a data-intensive variable selection approach. Malar J, 14, 2015, 68.
15. Weiss, DJ, Nelson, A, Gibson, HS, et al. A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015. Nature, 553, 2018, 333.
16. Smith, DL, Guerra, CA, Snow, RW, Hay, SI, Standardizing estimates of the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate. Malar J, 6, 2007, 131.
17. Mappin, B, Cameron, E, Dalrymple, U, et al. Standardizing Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence measured via microscopy versus rapid diagnostic test. Malar J, 14, 2015, 460.
18. Bhatt, S, Weiss, DJ, Mappin, B, et al. Coverage and system efficiencies of insecticide-treated nets in Africa from 2000 to 2017. eLife, 4, 2015, e09672.
19. Bennett, A, Bisanzio, D, Yukich, JO, et al. Population coverage of artemisinin-based combination treatment in children younger than 5 years with fever and Plasmodium falciparum infection in Africa, 2003–2015: a modelling study using data from national surveys. Lancet Glob Health 5 (2017), e418–e427.
20. Diggle, PJ, Tawn, JA, Moyeed, RA, Model-based geostatistics. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 47 (1998), 299–326.
21. Cameron, E, Battle, KE, Bhatt, S, et al. Defining the relationship between infection prevalence and clinical incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Nature Comm, 6, 2015, 8170.
22. Battle, KE, Guerra, CA, Golding, N, et al. Global database of matched Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax incidence and prevalence records from 1985–2013. Scientific Data, 2, 2015, 150012.
23. Naghavi, M, Abajobir, AA, Abbafati, C, et al. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 390 (2017), 1151–1210.
24. Cibulskis, RE, Aregawi, M, Williams, R, Otten, M, Dye, C, Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods. PLoS Med, 8, 2011, e1001142.
25. Keil, P, Belmaker, J, Wilson, AM, Unitt, P, Jetz, W, Downscaling of species distribution models: a hierarchical approach. Methods Ecol Evol 4 (2013), 82–94.
26. Sturrock, HJ, Cohen, JM, Keil, P, et al. Fine-scale malaria risk mapping from routine aggregated case data. Malar J, 13, 2014, 421.
27. Foreman, KJ, Lozano, R, Lopez, AD, Murray, CJL, Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm. Population Health Metrics, 10, 2012, 1.
28. GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 390 (2017), 1211–1259.
29. Smith, T, Maire, N, Ross, A, et al. Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control. Parasitology 135 (2008), 1507–1516.
30. Griffin, JT, Ferguson, NM, Ghani, AC, Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Nat Commun, 5, 2014, 3136.
31. Okell, LC, Bousema, T, Griffin, JT, Ouédraogo, AL, Ghani, AC, Drakeley, CJ, Factors determining the occurrence of submicroscopic malaria infections and their relevance for control. Nat Commun, 3, 2012, 1237.
32. Chen, I, Clarke, SE, Gosling, R, et al. “Asymptomatic” malaria: a chronic and debilitating infection that should be treated. PLoS Medicine, 13, 2016, e1001942.
33. WHO. Global technical strategy for malaria 2016–2030. https://www.who.int/malaria/publications/atoz/9789241564991/en/, 2015. (Accessed 28 May 2019)
34. WHO. High burden to high impact: a targeted malaria response. https://www.who.int/malaria/publications/atoz/high-impact-response/en/, 2018. (Accessed 28 May 2019)