28. A multifactor risk analysis of the record 2016 Great Barrier Reef bleaching

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 99, Issue 1, 2018, Pages S144-S149

  Lewis, Sophie C ^a   Mallela, Jennie ^b  

^a AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85065929638     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0074.1     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Ainsworth, T. D., S. F. Heron, J. C. Ortiz, P. J. Mumby, A. Grech, D. Ogawa, E. C Mark, and W. Leggat, 2016: Climate change disables coral bleaching protection on the Great Barrier Reef. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 352, 338–342, doi:10.1126/science.aac7125.
2. Bellwood, D. R., A. S. Hoey, and J. H. Choat, 2003: Limited functional redundancy in high diversity systems: resilience and ecosystem function on coral reefs. Ecol. Lett., 6, 281–285, doi:10.1046/j.1461 -0248.2003.00432.x/full.
3. Bureau of Meteorology, 2012: Special Climate Statement 38—Australia’s wettest two-year period on record; 2010–2011. [Australia] Bureau of Meteorology, 10 pp. [Available online at www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs38.pdf.]
4. 2016: Special Climate Statement 56—Australia’s warmest autumn on record. [Australia] Bureau of Meteorology, 21 pp. [Available online at www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs56.pdf.]
5. Carilli, J. E., R. D. Norris, B. A. Black, S. M. Walsh, and M. McField, 2009: Local stressors reduce coral resilience to bleaching. PLoS One, 4, e6324, doi:10.1371 /journal.pone.0006324.
6. Cressey, D., 2016: Coral crisis: Great Barrier Reef bleaching is “the worst we’ve ever seen.” Nature, doi:10.1038 /nature.2016.19747.
7. Glynn, P. W., and L. D’croz, 1990: Experimental evidence for high temperature stress as the cause of El Niño-coincident coral mortality. Coral Reefs, 8, 181–191, doi:10.1007/BF00265009.
8. Graham, N. A. J., S. Jennings, M. A. MacNeil, D. Mouil-lot, and S. K. Wilson, 2015: Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs. Nature, 518, 94–97, doi:10.1038/nature14140.
9. Hughes, T. P., and Coauthors, 2017: Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature, 543, 373–377, doi:10.1038/nature21707.
10. Leahy, S. M., M. J. Kingsford, and C. R. Steinberg, 2013: Do clouds save the Great Barrier Reef? Satellite imagery elucidates the cloud-SST relationship at the local scale. PLoSOne, 8, e70400–e70412, doi:10.1371 /journal.pone.0070400.
11. Lewis, S. C., and D. J. Karoly, 2013: Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3705–3709, doi:10.1002/grl.50673.
12. —, and —, 2014: The role of anthropogenic forcing in the record 2013 Australia-wide annual and spring temperatures [in “Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S31–S34.
13. Liu, G., A. E. Strong, and W. Skirving, 2003: Remote sensing of sea surface temperatures during 2002 Barrier Reef coral bleaching. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 84, 137–141, doi:10.1029/2003EO150001.
14. —, J. L. Rauenzahn, S. F. Heron, C. M. Eakin, W. Skirving, T. R. L. Christensen, A. E. Strong, and J. Li, 2013: NOAA Coral Reef Watch 50 km satellite sea surface temperature-based decision support system for coral bleaching management. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 143, 41 pp. [Available online at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/publications /NOAA.Tech.Report.143.pdf.]
15. Mallela, J., S. Hetzinger, and J. Halfar, 2016: Thermal stress markers in Colpophyllia natans provide an archive of site-specific bleaching events. Coral Reefs, 35, 181–186, doi:10.1007/s00338-015-1350-7.
16. Mann, M. E., S. Rahmstorf, B. A. Steinman, M. Tingley, and S. K. Miller, 2016: The likelihood of recent record warmth. Sci. Rep., 6, 19831, doi:10.1038/srep19831.
17. Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones, 2012: Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08101, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187.
18. Nicholls, N., 2003: Continued anomalous warming in Australia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1370, doi:10.1029/2003GL017037.
19. Normile, D., 2016: Survey confirms worst-ever coral bleaching at Great Barrier Reef. ScienceInsider, doi:10.1126/science.aaf9933.
20. Power, S., T. Casey, C. Folland, A. Colman, and V. Mehta, 1999: Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dyn., 15, 319–324, doi:10.1007/s003820050284.
21. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609–1625, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1609:AIISAS>2 .0.CO;2.
22. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498, doi:10.1175/BAMS -D-11-00094.1.
23. Weller, E., M. Nunez, G. Meyers, and I. Masiri, 2008: A climatology of ocean–atmosphere heat flux estimates over the Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea: Implications for recent mass coral bleaching events. J. Climate, 21, 3853–3871, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2085.1.
24. Wooldridge, S. A., 2016a: Excess seawater nutrients, enlarged algal symbiont densities and bleaching sensitive reef locations: 1. Identifying thresholds of concern for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Mar. Pollut. Bull., in press, doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.04.054.
25. —, 2016b: Understanding coral bleaching risk factors in the remote far-northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) that make obvious the best “local” management option for maximising the capacity of the GBR to resist thermal stress and bleaching. CTRMS Research Pub. 01. Catchment to Reef Management Solutions, Newcastle, NSW, Australia, 35 pp.