National health expenditure projections, 2018–27: Economic and demographic trends drive spending and enrollment growth

Health Affairs

Volumn 38, Issue 3, 2019, Pages 491-501

  Sisko, Andrea M ^a   Keehan, Sean P ^b   Poisal, John A ^c   Cuckler, Gigi A ^b   Smith, Sheila D ^b   Madison, Andrew J ^b   Rennie, Kathryn E ^b   Hardesty, James C ^b  

^a CENTERS FOR MEDICARE AND MEDICAID SERVICES   (United States)

^b CMS Office of the Actuary   (United States)

^c National Health Statistics Group   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; HUMAN; MEDICAID; MEDICARE; POPULATION GROWTH; PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE; PUBLIC HEALTH; DEMOGRAPHY; FORECASTING; HEALTH CARE COST; UNITED STATES;

DEMOGRAPHY; FORECASTING; HEALTH CARE COSTS; HEALTH EXPENDITURES; HUMANS; MEDICAID; MEDICARE; POPULATION GROWTH; UNITED STATES;

EID: 85062230357     PISSN: 02782715     EISSN: 15445208     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05499     Document Type: Article

References (21)

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2. By 2019 the individual mandate repeal is anticipated to result in about 1.5 million fewer direct-purchasemarket enrollees, who are expected to be somewhat younger and healthier than those who retain coverage, as well as about 1.0 million fewer employer-sponsoredinsurance- market enrollees, than otherwise would have been projected. After 2019 the enrollment effects are expected to be smaller. Medicaid enrollment is assumed to be unaffected. See Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Projections of national health expenditures (note 3).
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5. Consistent with the methods employed in the Medicare Trustees Report (see note 4), these projections assume that payments would continue to be made even after the projected depletion of the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund, currently projected to occur in 2026.
6. Personal health care expenditures (PHC) measures the total amount spent to treat people with specific medical conditions. It represents about 85 percent of total national health expenditures over the projection period.
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