Smoking and lung cancer mortality in the United States from 2015 to 2065: A comparative modeling approach

Annals of Internal Medicine

Volumn 169, Issue 10, 2018, Pages 684-693

  Jeon, Jihyoun ^a   Holford, Theodore R ^b   Levy, David T ^c   Feuer, Eric J ^d   Cao, Pianpian ^a   Tam, Jamie ^a   Clarke, Lauren ^e   Clarke, John ^e   Kong, Chung Yin ^f   Meza, Rafael ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^b YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE   (United States)

^e Cornerstone Systems Northwest ^*  (United States)

^f MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGED; CANCER MORTALITY; CONTROLLED STUDY; FEMALE; HUMAN; LIFE EXPECTANCY; LUNG CANCER; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; SMOKING; TOBACCO USE; UNITED STATES; COMPUTER SIMULATION; LUNG TUMOR; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; PREVALENCE; SMOKING CESSATION; TRENDS; VERY ELDERLY;

ADULT; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FEMALE; HUMANS; LIFE EXPECTANCY; LUNG NEOPLASMS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PREVALENCE; SMOKING; SMOKING CESSATION; UNITED STATES;

EID: 85056726079     PISSN: 00034819     EISSN: 15393704     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.7326/M18-1250     Document Type: Review

References (55)

1. American Cancer Society. Cancer Facts & Figure 2017. 2018. Accessed at www.cancer.org/research/cancer-facts-statistics/all-cancer -facts-figures/cancer-facts-figures-2017.html on 17 August 2018.
2. National Institutes of Health. The Reports of the Surgeon General. The 1964 Report on Smoking and Health: Documents. Accessed at https://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/ps/retrieve/Narrative/NN/p-nid/60/p -docs/true on 3 April 2017.
3. Thun MJ, Jemal A. How much of the decrease in cancer death rates in the United States is attributable to reductions in tobacco smoking? [Editorial]. Tob Control. 2006;15:345-7. [PMID: 16998161]
4. Jemal A, Thun M, Yu XQ, Hartman AM, Cokkinides V, Center MM, et al. Changes in smoking prevalence among U.S. adults by state and region: estimates from the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey, 1992-2007. BMC Public Health. 2011;11: 512. [PMID: 21714876] doi:10.1186/1471-2458-11-512
5. Moolgavkar SH, Holford TR, Levy DT, Kong CY, Foy M, Clarke L, et al. Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2012;104: 541-8. [PMID: 22423009] doi:10.1093/jnci/djs136
6. Holford TR, Meza R, Warner KE, Meernik C, Jeon J, Moolgavkar SH, et al. Tobacco control and the reduction in smoking-related premature deaths in the United States, 1964-2012. JAMA. 2014;311: 164-71. [PMID: 24399555] doi:10.1001/jama.2013.285112
7. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Health Consequences of Smoking-50 Years of Progress: A Report of the Surgeon General, 2014. Atlanta: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health; 2014. Accessed at www.surgeongeneral.gov /library/reports/50-years-of-progress on 13 July 2017.
8. Levy DT, Meza R, Zhang Y, Holford TR. Gauging the effect of U.S. tobacco control policies from 1965 through 2014 using SimSmoke. Am J Prev Med. 2016;50:535-42. [PMID: 26673484] doi:10.1016/j .amepre.2015.10.001
9. Lewis DR, Check DP, Caporaso NE, Travis WD, Devesa SS. US lung cancer trends by histologic type. Cancer 2014;120:2883-92. [PMID: 25113306] doi:10.1002/cncr.28749
10. Meza R, Meernik C, Jeon J, Cote ML. Lung cancer incidence trends by gender, race and histology in the United States, 1973-2010. PLoS One. 2015;10:e0121323. [PMID: 25822850] doi:10 .1371/journal.pone.0121323
11. U.S. Food and Drug Administration. FDA's Comprehensive Plan for Tobacco and Nicotine Regulation. Updated 29 August 2018. Accessed at www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/NewsEvents/ucm568425 .htm on 5 September 2018.
12. Institute of Medicine. Public Health Implications of Raising the Minimum Age of Legal Access to Tobacco Products. Washington, DC: National Academies Pr; 2015. Accessed at http://nationalacademies .org/HMD/Reports/2015/TobaccoMinimumAgeReport.aspx on 15 September 2017.
13. Moyer VA; U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for lung cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement. Ann Intern Med. 2014;160:330-8. [PMID: 24378917] doi:10.7326/M13-2771
14. de Koning HJ, Meza R, Plevritis SK, ten Haaf K, Munshi VN, Jeon J, et al. Benefits and harms of computed tomography lung cancer screening strategies: a comparative modeling study for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Ann Intern Med. 2014;160:311-20. [PMID: 24379002] doi:10.7326/M13-2316
15. Mendez D, Warner KE, Courant PN. Has smoking cessation ceased? Expected trends in the prevalence of smoking in the United States. Am J Epidemiol. 1998;148:249-58. [PMID: 9690361]
16. Mé ndez D, Alshanqeety O, Warner KE. The potential impact of smoking control policies on future global smoking trends. Tob Control. 2013;22:46-51. [PMID: 22535364] doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol -2011-050147
17. National Cancer Institute. A Socioecological Approach to Addressing Tobacco-Related Health Disparities. National Cancer Institute Tobacco Control Monograph 22. NIH publication no. 17-CA- 8035A. Bethesda, MD: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute; 2017. Accessed at https://cancercontrol.cancer.gov/brp/tcrb/monographs/ 22 on 12 March 2018.
18. National Cancer Institute. Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). 2017. Accessed at https://cisnet.cancer .gov on 27 September 2017.
19. Jeon J, Meza R, Krapcho M, Clarke LD, Byrne J, Levy DT. Chapter 5: Actual and counterfactual smoking prevalence rates in the U.S. population via microsimulation. Risk Anal. 2012;32 Suppl 1:S51-68. [PMID: 22882892] doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01775.x
20. Feuer EJ, Levy DT, McCarthy WJ. Chapter 1: The impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on U.S. lung cancer mortality, 1975-2000: an introduction to the problem. Risk Anal. 2012;32 Suppl 1:S6-13. [PMID: 22882893] doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01745.x
21. Anderson CM, Burns DM, Dodd KW, Feuer EJ. Chapter 2: Birthcohort- specific estimates of smoking behaviors for the U.S. population. Risk Anal. 2012;32 Suppl 1:S14-24. [PMID: 22882884] doi:10 .1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01703.x
22. Rosenberg MA, Feuer EJ, Yu B, Sun J, Henley SJ, Shanks TG, et al. Chapter 3: Cohort life tables by smoking status, removing lung cancer as a cause of death. Risk Anal. 2012;32 Suppl 1:S25-38. [PMID: 22882890] doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01662.x
23. Holford TR, Levy DT, McKay LA, Clarke L, Racine B, Meza R, et al. Patterns of birth cohort-specific smoking histories, 1965-2009. Am J Prev Med. 2014;46:e31-7. [PMID: 24439359] doi:10.1016/j.amepre .2013.10.022
24. Tam J, Levy DT, Jeon J, Clarke J, Gilkeson S, Hall T, et al. Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol. BMJ Open. 2018;8:e019169. [PMID: 29574440] doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019169
25. Krall EA, Garvey AJ, Garcia RI. Smoking relapse after 2 years of abstinence: findings from the VA Normative Aging Study. Nicotine Tob Res. 2002;4:95-100. [PMID: 11906685]
26. Hughes JR, Peters EN, Naud S. Relapse to smoking after 1 year of abstinence: a meta-analysis. Addict Behav. 2008;33:1516-20. [PMID: 18706769] doi:10.1016/j.addbeh.2008.05.012
27. Sprague WW. LCFIT: The Lee-Carter Fitter [computer program]. 2009. Accessed at http://lcfit.demog.berkeley.edu on 17 August 2018.
28. Hazelton WD, Clements MS, Moolgavkar SH. Multistage carcinogenesis and lung cancer mortality in three cohorts. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2005;14:1171-81. [PMID: 15894668]
29. Meza R, Hazelton WD, Colditz GA, Moolgavkar SH. Analysis of lung cancer incidence in the Nurses' Health and the Health Professionals' Follow-Up Studies using a multistage carcinogenesis model. Cancer Causes Control. 2008;19:317-28. [PMID: 18058248]
30. Hazelton WD, Jeon J, Meza R, Moolgavkar SH. Chapter 8: The FHCRC lung cancer model. Risk Anal. 2012;32 Suppl 1:S99-116. [PMID: 22882896] doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01681.x
31. Moolgavkar SH, Knudson AG Jr. Mutation and cancer: a model for human carcinogenesis. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1981;66:1037-52. [PMID: 6941039]
32. Little MP. Are two mutations sufficient to cause cancer? Some generalizations of the two-mutation model of carcinogenesis of Moolgavkar, Venzon, and Knudson, and of the multistage model of Armitage and Doll. Biometrics. 1995;51:1278-91. [PMID: 8589222]
33. Heidenreich WF, Wellmann J, Jacob P, Wichmann HE. Mechanistic modelling in large case-control studies of lung cancer risk from smoking. Stat Med. 2002;21:3055-70. [PMID: 12369081]
34. McMahon PM, Kong CY, Weinstein MC, Tramontano AC, Cipriano LE, Johnson BE, et al. Adopting helical CT screening for lung cancer: potential health consequences during a 15-year period. Cancer. 2008;113:3440-9. [PMID: 18988293] doi:10.1002/cncr.23962
35. McMahon PM, Kong CY, Johnson BE, Weinstein MC, Weeks JC, Kuntz KM, et al. Estimating long-term effectiveness of lung cancer screening in the Mayo CT screening study. Radiology. 2008;248: 278-87. [PMID: 18458247] doi:10.1148/radiol.2481071446
36. Holford TR. Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Annu Rev Public Health. 1991;12: 425-57. [PMID: 2049144]
37. Bruzzi P, Green SB, Byar DP, Brinton LA, Schairer C. Estimating the population attributable risk for multiple risk factors using casecontrol data. Am J Epidemiol. 1985;122:904-14. [PMID: 4050778]
38. Cherng ST, Tam J, Christine PJ, Meza R. Modeling the effects of e-cigarettes on smoking behavior: implications for future adult smoking prevalence. Epidemiology. 2016;27:819-26. [PMID: 27093020] doi:10.1097/EDE.0000000000000497
39. Chang JT, Levy DT, Meza R. Trends and factors related to smokeless tobacco use in the United States. Nicotine Tob Res. 2016;18: 1740-8. [PMID: 26995793] doi:10.1093/ntr/ntw090
40. Lee YO, Hebert CJ, Nonnemaker JM, Kim AE. Multiple tobacco product use among adults in the United States: cigarettes, cigars, electronic cigarettes, hookah, smokeless tobacco, and snus. Prev Med. 2014;62:14-9. [PMID: 24440684] doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2014.01 .014
41. Lee YO, Hebert CJ, Nonnemaker JM, Kim AE. Youth tobacco product use in the United States. Pediatrics. 2015;135:409-15. [PMID: 25647680] doi:10.1542/peds.2014-3202
42. Wang TW, Gentzke A, Sharapova S, Cullen KA, Ambrose BK, Jamal A. Tobacco product use among middle and high school students - United States, 2011-2017. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2018;67:629-633. [PMID: 29879097] doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6722a3
43. Johnston LD, Miech RA, O'Malley PM, Bachman JG, Schulenberg JE, Patrick ME. Monitoring the Future. National survey results on drug use, 1975-2017: overview, key findings on adolescent drug use. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan; 2018. Accessed at http: //monitoringthefuture.org/pubs/monographs/mtf-overview2017.pdf on 5 September 2018.
44. Apelberg BJ, Feirman SP, Salazar E, Corey CG, Ambrose BK, Paredes A, et al. Potential public health effects of reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes in the United States. N Engl J Med. 2018;378: 1725-33. [PMID: 29543114] doi:10.1056/NEJMsr1714617
45. Kathuria H, Detterbeck FC, Fathi JT, Fennig K, Gould MK, Jolicoeur DG, et al; ATS Assembly on Thoracic Oncology. Stakeholder research priorities for smoking cessation interventions within lung cancer screening programs. An official American Thoracic Society research statement. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2017;196:1202-12. [PMID: 29090963] doi:10.1164/rccm.201709-1858ST
46. Zhong L, Goldberg MS, Parent ME, Hanley JA. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and the risk of lung cancer: a metaanalysis. Lung Cancer. 2000;27:3-18. [PMID: 10672779]
47. Darby S, Hill D, Auvinen A, Barros-Dios JM, Baysson H, Bochicchio F, et al. Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies. BMJ. 2005;330:223. [PMID: 15613366]
48. Nitadori J, Inoue M, Iwasaki M, Otani T, Sasazuki S, Nagai K, et al. Association between lung cancer incidence and family history of lung cancer: data from a large-scale population-based cohort study, the JPHC Study. Chest. 2006;130:968-75. [PMID: 17035426]
49. Raviv S, Hawkins KA, DeCamp MM Jr, Kalhan R. Lung cancer in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: enhancing surgical options and outcomes. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2011;183:1138-46. [PMID: 21177883] doi:10.1164/rccm.201008-1274CI
50. Markowitz SB, Levin SM, Miller A, Morabia A. Asbestos, asbestosis, smoking, and lung cancer. New findings from the North American insulator cohort. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2013;188:90-6. [PMID: 23590275] doi:10.1164/rccm.201302-0257OC
51. O'Keefe EB, Meltzer JP, Bethea TN. Health disparities and cancer: racial disparities in cancer mortality in the United States, 2000-2010. Front Public Health. 2015;3:51. [PMID: 25932459] doi:10 .3389/fpubh.2015.00051
52. Meza R, ten Haaf K, Kong CY, Erdogan A, Black WC, Tammemagi MC, et al. Comparative analysis of 5 lung cancer natural history and screening models that reproduce outcomes of the NLST and PLCO trials. Cancer. 2014;120:1713-24. [PMID: 24577803] doi:10 .1002/cncr.28623
53. Thun MJ, Henley SJ, Burns D, Jemal A, Shanks TG, Calle EE. Lung cancer death rates in lifelong nonsmokers. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2006;98:691-9. [PMID: 16705123]
54. Thun MJ, Hannan LM, Adams-Campbell LL, Boffetta P, Buring JE, Feskanich D, et al. Lung cancer occurrence in never-smokers: an analysis of 13 cohorts and 22 cancer registry studies. PLoS Med. 2008;5: e185. [PMID: 18788891] doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050185
55. Weinstein MC, O'Brien B, Hornberger J, Jackson J, Johannesson M, McCabe C, et al; ISPOR Task Force on Good Research Practices- Modeling Studies. Principles of good practice for decision analytic modeling in health-care evaluation: report of the ISPOR Task Force on Good Research Practices-Modeling Studies. Value Health. 2003; 6:9-17. [PMID: 12535234]