Southeast asia in the sino-u.S. strategic balance

Contemporary Southeast Asia

Volumn 26, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 434-459

  Tow, Shannon ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85050171806     PISSN: 0129797X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1355/CS26-3C     Document Type: Article

References (83)

1. Amitav Acharya, Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia: ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order (London: Routledge, 2001), p. 184.
2. Robyn Lim, "The ASEAN Regional Forum: Building on Sand", Contemporary Southeast Asia 20, no. 2 (August 1998), pp. 116-26. Avery Goldstein, "Balance of Power Politics: Consequences for Asian Security Order", in Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Approaches, edited by Mutthiah Alagappa (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2002), pp. 188-95.
3. Mohan Malik, "Dragon on Terrorism: Assessing China's Strategic Gains and Tactical Losses after September 11", Contemporary Southeast Asia 24, no. 2 (August 2002), p. 273.
4. Robert Ross, "The Geography of Peace", International Security 23, no. 4 (Spring 1999), pp. 84-86.
5. Goldstein, op. cit., p. 187; Aaron Friedberg, "Will Europe's Past be Asia's Future?", Survival 42, no. 3 (Autumn 2000), p. 154.
6. Gaye Christofferson, "The Role of East Asia in Sino-US Relations", Asian Survey 42, no. 3 (May/June 2002): 380.
7. Goldstein, op. cit., p. 176; Amitav Acharya, Seeking Security in the Dragon's Shadow: China and Southeast Asia in the Emerging Asian Order (Singapore: Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, 2003), pp. 17-21.
8. Goldstein, op. cit., pp. 179-81.
9. Acharya, "Seeking Security", op. cit., pp. 17-19.
10. 10This paper adopts a similar approach to that of Robert Jervis. Jervis argues that international relations is determined not by any single "objective reality" but rather by states' perceptions of that reality. Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in World Politics (Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press, 1976), p. 3.
11. 11Ross, op. cit., pp. 84-86.
12. 12Russia's withdrawal from Cam Ranh Bay in 2002, coupled with its more Eurocentric foreign policy orientation and limited resources, have crippled it as an Asian strategic actor. Similarly, Japan's weakening economy and commensurate reductions in Overseas Development Aid (ODA) have jeopardized that country's key avenue of applying power in the region. While India is increasingly replacing Japan as a source of investment, trade and technology, its slow economic liberalization has not allowed it to compete on the same level as China and the United States. Ian James Storey and Carlyle Thayer, "Cam Ranh Bay: Past Imperfect, Future Conditional", Contemporary Southeast Asia 23, no. 3 (December 2001), p. 461 and Lam Peng Er, "Japan-Southeast Asia Relations: Trading Places", Comparative Connections 4, no. 1 (April 2002), , accessed on 4 August 2003.
13. 13Ross, "The Geography of Peace", op. cit., pp. 101-08.
14. 14Cited in Saul Cohen, Geography in a Divided World (New York: Random House, 1963), p. 46.
15. 15Dao Shulin and Shang Qianheng, "China-ASEAN relations", Contemporary International Relations 12, no. 11 (November 2002), p. 16.
16. 16Michael Yahuda, "Chinese Dilemmas in Thinking about the Regional Security Architecture", Pacific Review 16, no. 2 (June 2003), p. 193. Carlyle Thayer, "China's 'New Security Concept' and ASEAN", Comparative Connections 2, no. 3 (October 2000), accessed on 16 July 2003.
17. 17U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Washington, D.C.: USGPO, 2001), , accessed on 3 July 2003, p. 12.
18. 18Cited in "Troop Level Reports: Nothing but Speculation Rumsfeld Says", American Forces Press Service, 25 March 2004, U.S. Department of Defense website at , accessed on 2 April 2004.
19. 19Cited in "Global Military Posture's Part in Transformation", American Forces Press Service, 2 December 2003, U.S. Department of Defense website at , accessed on 2 April 2004.
20. 20Richard Sokolsky, Angel Rabasa and CR. Neu, The Role of Southeast Asia in U.S. Strategy Toward China (Santa Monica: RAND, 2000), pp. 5-11.
21. 21Ross, op. cit., p. 99.
22. 22You Ji, "The PLA's Blue Water Illusion: Legacies, Models and Realities", CAPS Paper 32 (2001), p. 24.
23. 23Ross, op. cit., p. 96.
24. 24Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University, 1987), p. 23.
25. 25Ross, op. cit., p. 98.
26. 26Robert Rothstein, Alliances and Small Powers (New York: Columbia University Press, 1968), pp. 28, 34-37; David Vital, The Inequality of States (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1967), pp. 120-21; Annette Baker Fox, The Power of Small States: Diplomacy in World War Two (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959), pp. 180-83.
27. 27Fox, op. cit., p. 183.
28. 28Fox, op. cit., p. 185.
29. 29Goh Chok Tong, "East Asia after Iraq", Remarks to the Asia Society Gala Dinner at the Fairmont Hotel, Washington D.C., 7 May 2003, , accessed on 6 August 2003.
30. 30Tony Tan and William Cohen, "DoD News Briefing", Defense Link, 15 January 1998, , accessed on 29 July 2003.
31. 31Lee Hsien Loong, "Japan's Role in Southeast Asia", 25 May 1999, , accessed on 24 September 2004.
32. 32Derek Da Cunha, "Defence and Security: Evolving Threat Perceptions", p. 133; in Michael Leifer, Singapore's Foreign Policy: Coping with Vulnerability (London: Routledge, 2000) and Tim Huxley, Defending the Lion City: The Armed Forces of Singapore (Crows Nest, Australia: Allen and Unwin, 2000), p. 36.
33. 33Evelyn Goh, "Singapore's Reaction to Rising China: Deep Engagement and Strategic Readjustment", Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies Working Paper 67 (2004), p. 9.
34. 34Singaporean Defence Minister Tony Tan, quoted by Michael Richardson, 'Singapore Welcomes U.S. Air Craft Carrier', International Herald Tribune, 22 March 2001, , accessed on 8 July 2003.
35. 35Huxley, op. cit., p. 37.
36. 36S. Jayakumar, "Remarks in Parliament by Singaporean Foreign Minister Prof S. Jayakumar on Strategic Review in the World, including the Situation in Iraq and Asia-Pacific Region", 14 March 2003, , accessed on 6 August 2003.
37. 37Singapore Ministry of Defence, Defending Singapore in the 21st Century (Singapore: Ministry of Defence, 2000), p. 51.
38. 38Tony Tan and William Cohen, "DoDNews Briefing: Signing Ceremony with Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen and Minister of Defense Tony Tan, Republic of Singapore", Defense Link, 10 November 1998, , accessed on 29 July 2003; Michael Richardson, op. cit.
39. 39Goh, op. cit., p. 9.
40. 40George Yeo, "Transcript of Trade and Industry Minister George Yeo's Interview with the BBC", 29 July 2002, , accessed on 6 August 2003.
41. 41Goh Chok Tong, "Speech by Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong at the Banquet Hosted in Honour of His Excellency Zhu Rongji, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China", Remarks at the Istana Hotel, Singapore, 29 November 1999, , accessed on 6 August 2003.
42. 42Goh Chok Tong, "East Asia after Iraq", Remarks to the Asia Society Gala Dinner at the Fairmont Hotel, Washington D. C, 7 May 2003, , accessed on 6 August 2003. Also see Simon Tay, "China, ASEAN and East Asia: Partnership with a Rising Power" (Paper presented at the "Asia-Pacific Roundtable", Kuala Lumpur, 2-6 June 2002),
43. 43Lee Hsien Loong, "Power Shifts in Asia", Fortune Global Forum, Washington D. C, 12 November 2002, , accessed on 5 August 2003.
44. 44Ibid.
45. 45Christofferson, op. cit., pp. 393-94.
46. 46Goh, op. cit., p. 7.
47. 47Rommel Banlaoi, "The Role of Philippines-American Relations in the Global Campaign against Terrorism: Implications for Regional Security", Contemporary Southeast Asia 24, no. 2 (August 2002), p. 200.
48. 48Ian James Storey, "Creeping Assertiveness: China, the Philippines and the South China Sea Dispute", Contemporary Southeast Asia 21, no. 1 (April 1999), pp. 109-10.
49. 49Renato Cruz de Castro, "The Revitalized Philippine-U.S. Security Relations", Asian Survey 43, no. 6 (November/December 2003), p. 978.
50. 50Cited in Greg Austin, "Unwanted Entanglement: The Philippines Spratly Policy as a Case Study in Conflict Enhancement?", Security Dialogue 34, no. 1 (March 2003), p. 47.
51. 51Storey, op. cit., pp. 99-101.
52. 52Cathy Yamsuan, "U.S. Admiral: VFA No Security Blanket", Philippines Daily Inquirer, 24 May 1999, , accessed on 5 June 2003.
53. 53AFP spokesperson quoted by Austin, op. cit., p. 50.
54. 54Sheldon Simon, "Theater Security Cooperation in the U.S. Pacific Command: An Assessment and Projection", NBR Analysis 14, no. 2 (August 2003), accessed at , pp. 33-34.
55. 55Carlos Agustín, Military Exercises in the Context ofPhilippine SecurityRequirements (Quezon City: National Defense College of the Philippines, 2002),
56. 56"Philippines: Balikatan Starts; New Venues Added", Manila Times, 24 February 2004, , accessed on 2 March 2004.
57. 57Cruz de Castro, op. cit., p. 987.
58. 58Ibid., p. 980.
59. 59"Dead in the Water, Drilon Says of U.S. Bases in RP", Philippine Daily Inquirer, 11 June 2003, , accessed on 6 August 2003; "Balikatan Exercises Postponed as RP, U.S. Debate Ground Troops Role", Manila Times, 3 June 2003, , accessed on 5 August 2003; compilation of personal interviews (Tow) conducted with regional officials, Canberra, 4 July 2003.
60. 60David Würfel, "The Philippines: Collateral Damage in the War on Terrorism", CANCAPS Bulletin 33 (May 2002), p. 2.
61. 61Sheldon Simon, "Southeast Asia and the U.S. War on Terrorism", NBR Analysis 13, no. 4 (July 2002), , accessed on 4 August 2003.
62. 62Rommel Banlaoi, "The War on Terrorism in Southeast Asia: Strategic Implications for Philippine-China-US Relations" (Paper presented at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Zhongshan University, Guanzhou China, 7 January 2003), , accessed on 14 July 2003, p. 13.
63. 63Philippines President Gloria Arroyo, quoted by Carlito Pablo, "Singing in Beijing: Jiang Meets his Match in Ate GIo", Philippines Daily Inquirer, 1 November 2001, , accessed on 4 August 2003.
64. 64Archimedes Gomez, "China-Philippines Economic and Trade Cooperation", paper presented at the International Seminar on China-ASEAN Trade, Investment and Development Cooperation, Kunming China, September 2002, , accessed on 29 September 2003.
65. 65Banlaoi, op. cit., p. 14.
66. 66Philippines President Gloria Arroyo cited in Christofferson op. cit., p. 388. See also Zalmay Khalizad et al., The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture (Santa Monica: RAND, 2001).
67. 67William Tow, Assessing U.S. Bilateral Security Alliances in the Asia-Pacific's "Southern Rim": Why the San Francisco System Endures" (Stanford: Asia-Pacific Research Centre, 1999), pp. 15-16.
68. 68Kusuma Snitwongse, "The Thai-United States Bilateral Alliance", in Bilateralism in a Multilateral Era: The Future of the San Francisco Alliance System in the Asia-Pacific, edited by William Tow, Russell Trood and Toshiya Hoshino (Brisbane, Australia: Centre for the Study of Asia-Australia Relations, 1997), p. 116.
69. 69"This is No Way for U.S. to Treat Staunch Ally", The Nation, 19 January 1998, p. A4.
70. 70Tow, op. cit., p. 16.
71. 71Chulacheeb Chinawanno, "Thailand and Regional Security: The Search for Security Cooperation", paper presented at Conference on "Evolving Approaches to Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific", Singapore, 8-10 December 2002.
72. 72Sokolsky, Rabasa and Neu, op. cit., p. 35.
73. 73Anonymous Thai foreign policy official, quoted by, Saritdat Marukatat and Nussara Saratsawong, "Sino-Thai Relations Move into the New Century", Bangkok Post, 1 February 1999, , accessed on 4 April 2003.
74. 74Kulachada Chaipipat, "China and the Delicate Task", The Nation, 21 May 2001.
75. 75Ban Kanemi et al., "An Eastern Asian Microeconometric Link Model", Economic and Social Research Institute (April 2002), , accessed on 4 April 2003.
76. 76Montira Narkvichien, "Thai-Chinese Trade Continues to Grow", The Nation, 6 December 2002.
77. 77"Sino-Thai Trade: Sales Team to Hit the Road", The Nation, 24 July 2003.
78. 78Kusuma Snitwongse, "Thai Foreign Policy: Principal or Profit?", Contemporary Southeast Asia 23, no. 2 (August 2001), p. 204. Also see Faizal Yahya, "India and Southeast Asia: Revisited", Contemporary Southeast Asia 25, no. 1 (April 2003), p. 96.
79. 79Sakthip Krairiksh, "Speech by H.E. Mr. Sakthip Krairiksh, Ambassador of Thailand to the United States, at a Business Luncheon Hosted by the World Trade Center, Atlanta", 5 March 2002, , accessed on 2 June 2003.
80. 80Sheldon Simon, "Theater Security Cooperation in the U.S.-Pacific Command: An Assessment and Projection", NBR Analysis 14, no. 2 (August 2003), , accessed on 15 December 2003, p. 30.
81. 81"This is no way for U.S. to Treat Staunch Ally", op. cit.
82. 82"China Must Drop Threats of War", Bangkok Post, 12 March 2000; "U.S. Attitude on China Will Affect the Entire Region", Bangkok Post, 4 September 2001, , accessed on 13 June 2003; and Snitwongse, op. cit., p. 207.
83. 83Goldstein, "Balance of Power Politics", op. cit., p. 191.