The impact of issue preferences on voting choices in the Swiss federal elections, 1999

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 34, Issue 4, 2004, Pages 725-747

  Kriesi, Hanspeter ^a   Sciarini, Pascal ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 85047694004     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123404210262     Document Type: Note

References (47)

1. Michael R. Alvarez, Jonathan Nagler and Shaun Bowler, 'Issues, Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections: The British 1987 General Election', American Political Science Review, 94 (2000), 131-49.
2. Alvarez et al., 'Issues, Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections', p. 150.
3. Paul F. Lazarsfeld, Bernard Berelson and Hazel Gaudet, The People's Choice, 3rd edn (New York: Columbia University Press, 1968).
4. Daniel Schloeth, Vor die Wahl gestellt. Erklärungen des Wahlverhaltens bei den Eidgenössischen Wahlen (Bern: Haupt, 1998), pp. 214-20; Wolf Linder, 'Parteien-, Persönlichkeits-, Europa- oder Traditionswahl? Eine systematische Untersuchung des Einflusses von Sachthemen auf den Wahlentscheid', in Hanspeter Kriesi, Wolf Linder and Ulrich Klöti, eds, Schweizer Wahlen 1995 (Bern: Haupt, 1998), pp. 131-60, at p. 145, interpreting the same data, has shown that even in the Swiss case issues matter a great deal for the voting choice. But he points out that partisan preferences are considerably more important in Switzerland than issue preferences.
5. Daniel Schloeth, Vor die Wahl gestellt. Erklärungen des Wahlverhaltens bei den Eidgenössischen Wahlen (Bern: Haupt, 1998), pp. 214-20; Wolf Linder, 'Parteien-, Persönlichkeits-, Europa- oder Traditionswahl? Eine systematische Untersuchung des Einflusses von Sachthemen auf den Wahlentscheid', in Hanspeter Kriesi, Wolf Linder and Ulrich Klöti, eds, Schweizer Wahlen 1995 (Bern: Haupt, 1998), pp. 131-60, at p. 145, interpreting the same data, has shown that even in the Swiss case issues matter a great deal for the voting choice. But he points out that partisan preferences are considerably more important in Switzerland than issue preferences.
6. Pippa Norris, John Curtis, David Sanders, Margaret Scammel and Holli A. Semetko, On Message: Communicating the Campaign (London: Sage, 1999), p. 170.
7. Lazarsfeld et al., The People's Choice, p. 87.
8. Lazarsfeld et al., The People's Choice, p. 75ff.
9. Hanspeter Kriesi, 'Individual Opinion Formation in a Direct Democratic Campaign'; British Journal of Political Science, 3 (2002), 171-91.
10. The classic study of the American voter (Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter: An Abridgement (New York: Werbel and Peck. 1964), pp. 43ff.) shows that attitude conflicts have a delaying effect on the voting decision. However, it does not address the question of whether or not such conflicts induce the voters to abstain from participation at all.
11. George E. Rabinowitz and Stuart Elaine Macdonald, 'Directional Theory of Issue Voting', American Political Science Review, 83 (1989), 93-121.
12. Warren E. Miller and Merrill Shanks, The New American Voter (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996), pp. 357f.
13. Miller and Shanks, The New American Voter, p. 209.
14. Miller and Shanks, The New American Voter, p. 506.
15. Hanspeter Kriesi, Le système politique suisse, 2nd edn (Paris: Economica, 1998); Andreas Ladner, 'Das Schweizer Parteiensystem und seine Parteien', in Ulrich Klöti et al., eds, Handbuch der Schweizer Politik (Zurich: NZZ-Verlag, 1999), pp. 213-60; Wolf Linder, Schweizerische Demokratie (Bern: Haupt, 1999); Pascal Sciarini and Simon Hug, 'The Odd Fellow: Consociationalism and Parties in Switzerland', in Kurt Richard Luther and Kris Deschouwer, eds, Party Elites in Divided Societies: Political Elites in Consociational Democracy (London: Routledge, 1999), pp. 134-62.
16. Hanspeter Kriesi, Le système politique suisse, 2nd edn (Paris: Economica, 1998); Andreas Ladner, 'Das Schweizer Parteiensystem und seine Parteien', in Ulrich Klöti et al., eds, Handbuch der Schweizer Politik (Zurich: NZZ-Verlag, 1999), pp. 213-60; Wolf Linder, Schweizerische Demokratie (Bern: Haupt, 1999); Pascal Sciarini and Simon Hug, 'The Odd Fellow: Consociationalism and Parties in Switzerland', in Kurt Richard Luther and Kris Deschouwer, eds, Party Elites in Divided Societies: Political Elites in Consociational Democracy (London: Routledge, 1999), pp. 134-62.
17. Hanspeter Kriesi, Le système politique suisse, 2nd edn (Paris: Economica, 1998); Andreas Ladner, 'Das Schweizer Parteiensystem und seine Parteien', in Ulrich Klöti et al., eds, Handbuch der Schweizer Politik (Zurich: NZZ-Verlag, 1999), pp. 213-60; Wolf Linder, Schweizerische Demokratie (Bern: Haupt, 1999); Pascal Sciarini and Simon Hug, 'The Odd Fellow: Consociationalism and Parties in Switzerland', in Kurt Richard Luther and Kris Deschouwer, eds, Party Elites in Divided Societies: Political Elites in Consociational Democracy (London: Routledge, 1999), pp. 134-62.
18. Hanspeter Kriesi, Le système politique suisse, 2nd edn (Paris: Economica, 1998); Andreas Ladner, 'Das Schweizer Parteiensystem und seine Parteien', in Ulrich Klöti et al., eds, Handbuch der Schweizer Politik (Zurich: NZZ-Verlag, 1999), pp. 213-60; Wolf Linder, Schweizerische Demokratie (Bern: Haupt, 1999); Pascal Sciarini and Simon Hug, 'The Odd Fellow: Consociationalism and Parties in Switzerland', in Kurt Richard Luther and Kris Deschouwer, eds, Party Elites in Divided Societies: Political Elites in Consociational Democracy (London: Routledge, 1999), pp. 134-62.
19. Ulrich Klöti, 'Kantonale Parteiensysteme - Bedeutung des kantonalen Kontexts für die Positionierung der Parteien', in Kriesi, Linder and Klöti, eds, Schweizer Wahlen 1995, pp. 45-72; Hanspeter Kriesi, 'Einleitung', in Kriesi, Linder and Klöti, eds, Schweizer Wahlen 1995, pp. 1-16.
20. Ulrich Klöti, 'Kantonale Parteiensysteme - Bedeutung des kantonalen Kontexts für die Positionierung der Parteien', in Kriesi, Linder and Klöti, eds, Schweizer Wahlen 1995, pp. 45-72; Hanspeter Kriesi, 'Einleitung', in Kriesi, Linder and Klöti, eds, Schweizer Wahlen 1995, pp. 1-16.
21. Our dataset includes fourteen daily newspapers (Blick, Corriere del Ticino, Der Landbote, Der Zürcher Oberländer, Le Temps, Le Courrier, La Tribune de Genève, Le Matin, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Luzern Heute, Tages-Anzeiger, Zürichsee-Zeitung, Neue Luzerner Zeitung, Willisauer Bote), three Sunday papers (Le Matin Dimanche, Sonntagsblick, Sonntags Zeitung), and six weeklies (Die Weltwoche, Genève Home Informations, Die Region, Wochenzeitung. l'Hebdo, Facts).
22. Only a quarter of the amount of money spent on newspaper advertising was attributed to the five most pressing problems. Most advertisement did not comprise any reference to political issues, but focused on slogans and publicity for the parties and candidates themselves. The most pressing problems were determined by the responses to an open question posed at the outset of our study in June 1999, four months before the elections. Refugees/foreigners were mentioned by 34.1 per cent of the respondents, unemployment by 16.4 per cent, and Europe by 8.4 per cent, followed by the public deficit (mentioned by 4.7 per cent) and old-age pensions (mentioned by 4.0 per cent).
23. The post-electoral survey of a representative sample held immediately after the federal elections in 1999 indicated a participation rate of 61.8 per cent.
24. At federal elections, both chambers of the Swiss Parliament are completely renewed. We are dealing here only with the elections for the National Council - the lower chamber, where each canton has a number of representatives proportional to the size of its electorate and whose members are elected by proportional vote. We do not consider here the elections for the Council of States, which has two representatives for each canton who are elected by a majoritarian vote.
25. In the case of the Conservatives, the lack of success in Geneva may be attributed to the difficulties the party ran into once it became known that one of its top candidates in the canton was in fact a member of the extreme right. There may also be a more technical argument: since the Conservative camp was very small at the outset of the survey in Geneva, it was more sensitive to individual defections than those in the other two cantons.
26. Miller and Shanks, The New American Voter, p. 327.
27. Anders Westholm, 'Distance versus Direction: The Illusory Defeat of the Proximity Theory of Electoral Choice', American Political Science Review, 91 (1997), 865-83, p. 870.
28. Two reasons may account for this difference between our survey and the popular vote. First, remember that our sample is not representative of Swiss voters in general, not only because active voters are overrepresented, but also because it was drawn in three cantons only. Secondly, following the reasoning of some politicians on the right, a considerable number of voters may have voted against the proposed version of the insurance scheme, although they were not against the principle of introducing such a scheme.
29. Philip E. Converse, 'Attitudes and Non-attitudes: Continuation of a Dialogue', in Edward R. Tufte, ed., The Quantitative Analysis of Social Problems (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1970), pp. 168-89; Philip E. Converse, 'The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics', in David Apter, ed., Ideology and Discontent (New York: The Free Press, 1964), pp. 206-61. In a three-wave study, a perfectly arbitrary respondent has only a 25 per cent chance of changing sides twice in the course of the study (plus a chance of 25 per cent of being perfectly stable and a 50 per cent change of changing sides just once).
30. Philip E. Converse, 'Attitudes and Non-attitudes: Continuation of a Dialogue', in Edward R. Tufte, ed., The Quantitative Analysis of Social Problems (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1970), pp. 168-89; Philip E. Converse, 'The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics', in David Apter, ed., Ideology and Discontent (New York: The Free Press, 1964), pp. 206-61. In a three-wave study, a perfectly arbitrary respondent has only a 25 per cent chance of changing sides twice in the course of the study (plus a chance of 25 per cent of being perfectly stable and a 50 per cent change of changing sides just once).
31. Jennifer L. Hill and Hanspeter Kriesi, 'An Extension and Test of Converse's "Black-and-White" Model of Response Stability', American Political Science Review, 95 (2001), 397-413.
32. This also includes two 'half-way' changes, i.e. a change from one side to the 'no opinion' position and from there to the other side.
33. This implies that our financial indicators for the intensity of the campaign considerably underestimate the already impressive dominance of the Conservative right in this campaign. The publicity campaign of the Swiss People's Party has grown out of all proportions and has set new standards in Switzerland. It is essentially financed by two of the party's leaders in Zurich, both very rich businessmen (see Kurt Müller, 'Schleichende Abwertung der Parteien, NZZ', Internationale Ausgabe, No. 230, 3 October 1999, p. 27).
34. E.g. Linder, 'Parteien-, Persönlichkeits-, Europa- oder Traditionswahl?' p. 143.
35. Hanspeter Kriesi, Political Mobilization and Social Change: Levels of Mobilization and Mobilization Potentials in the Dutch General Public (Aldershot, Hants.: Avebury, 1993); Hanspeter Kriesi, 'The Transformation of Cleavage Politics - The 1997 Stein Rokkan Lecture', European Journal of Political Research, 33 (1998), 165-85.
36. Hanspeter Kriesi, Political Mobilization and Social Change: Levels of Mobilization and Mobilization Potentials in the Dutch General Public (Aldershot, Hants.: Avebury, 1993); Hanspeter Kriesi, 'The Transformation of Cleavage Politics - The 1997 Stein Rokkan Lecture', European Journal of Political Research, 33 (1998), 165-85.
37. Scott Long, Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables (London: Sage, 1997), chap. 6.
38. Alvarez et al., 'Issues, Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections', p. 135; R. Michael Alvarez and Jonathan Nagler, 'When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multiparty Elections', American Journal of Political Science, 42 (1998), 55-96.
39. Alvarez et al., 'Issues, Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections', p. 135; R. Michael Alvarez and Jonathan Nagler, 'When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multiparty Elections', American Journal of Political Science, 42 (1998), 55-96.
40. William H. Greene, Econometric Analysis, 3rd edn (London: Prentice-Hall 1997), pp. 920-1; Long, Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, pp. 183f.
41. William H. Greene, Econometric Analysis, 3rd edn (London: Prentice-Hall 1997), pp. 920-1; Long, Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, pp. 183f.
42. Technically, the parameter coefficients for the reference category can be obtained by re-running the model using another party as reference category (Long, Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, p. 160).
43. For these tests, one first estimates the full model that contains all of the variables, with the resulting likelihood ratio statistic. Then, one estimates the restricted model formed by excluding the variable whose impact is to be tested, with the resulting likelihood ratio statistic. Finally, one computes the difference between the two statistics, which is distributed as chi-square with J - 1 degrees of freedom, where J corresponds to the number of dependent categories (see Long, Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, p. 161).
44. Long, Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables, p. 64.
45. If the Christian Democrats did limit their losses in these elections, it was not because of issue voting. If they did not take a more substantial beating, it is, according to the present results, because they could still count on the traditional support of the Catholic population, especially in the regions where they traditionally dominated politics. In this sense the religious cleavage is still contributing to the maintenance of this party (see Table 6).
46. In other words, Left voters presumably mobilize and vote for the Left for other issue-specific considerations (e.g. for issues pertaining to social policy, unemployment, etc.).
47. The 1999 Swiss federal elections have notoriously brought the Conservatives a great victory. Our analysis of four different effects of issues preferences show that this success is, in part at least, a result of the Conservatives' issue-specific campaign. Asylum policy and EU membership are indeed the two issues in which the Conservatives had most invested in the short-term campaign (refugees) and over a longer period (EU integration). The issues which they shaped decisively in the first place, in turn, contributed most to their electoral victory. But our results suggest that the electoral campaign is not the only factor contributing to the establishing of such links. As the case of the maternity insurance quite clearly shows, parallel political campaigns, which are held for institutional reasons other than electoral ones, may have a significant impact on the outcome of the vote as well. From this point of view, the unanticipated effect of those well-meaning groups on the Left who launched a referendum against the tightening of the refugee policy to be voted upon in June 1999 may well have been that they contributed to the electoral victory of the Conservatives in October.