A Bayesian observation error model to predict cyanobacterial biovolume from spring total phosphorus in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Volumn 54, Issue 2, 1997, Pages 464-473

  Stow, C A ^a,c   Carpenter, S R ^a   Lathrop, B C ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^b WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES   (United States)

^c DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN OBSERVATION ERROR MODEL; CYANOBACTERIA; PHOSPHORUS;

USA, WISCONSIN, LAKE MENDOTA;

EID: 85047676836     PISSN: 0706652X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/f96-279     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Caroll, R.J., Ruppert, D., and Stefanski, L.A. 1995. Measurement error in nonlinear models. Chapman and Hall, New York.
2. Chow-Fraser, P., Trew, D.O., Findlay, D., and Stainton, M. 1994. A test of hypotheses to explain the sigmoidal relationship between total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in Canadian lakes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 2052-2065.
3. Dillon, P.J., and Rigler, F.H. 1974. The phosphorus-chlorophyll relationship in lakes. Limnol. Oceanogr. 19: 767-773.
4. Fuller, W.A. 1987. Measurement error models. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
5. Geweke, J. 1989. Bayesian inference in econometric models using Monte Carlo integration. Econometrica, 57: 1317-1339.
6. IMSL. 1987. User's manual -Math Library. International Mathematics and Statistics Library, Houston, Tex.
7. Larson, D.W. 1996. Curing the incurable? Am. Sci. 84: 7-9.
8. Lathrop, R.C. 1992. Nutrient loadings, lake nutrients, and water clarity. In Food web management, a case study of Lake Mendota. Edited by J.F. Kitchell. Springer-Verlag, New York. pp. 69-96.
9. Lathrop, R.C., and Carpenter, S.R. 1992. Phytoplankton and their relationship to nutrients. In Food web management, a case study of Lake Mendota. Edited by J.F. Kitchell. Springer-Verlag, New York. pp. 97-126.
10. Ludwig, D., Hilborn, R., and Walters, C. 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: lessons from history. Science (Washington, D.C.), 260: 17, 36.
11. McAllister, M.K., Pikitch, E.K., Punt, A.E., and Hilborn, R. 1994. A Bayesian approach to stock assessment and harvest decisions using the sampling/importance resampling algorithm. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51: 2673-2686.
12. McCauley, E., Downing, J.A., and Watson, S. 1989. Sigmoid relationships between nutrients and chlorophyll among lakes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 46: 1171-1175.
13. National Research Council. 1992. Restoration of aquatic ecosystems - science, technology and public policy. National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
14. Piessens, R., deDoncker-Kapenga, C., Uberhuber, W., and Kahaner, D.K. 1983. Quadpack. Springer-Verlag, New York.
15. Prairie, Y.T., Peters, R.H., and Bird, D.F. 1995. Natural variability and the estimation of empirical relationships: a reassessment of regression methods. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 52: 788-798.
16. Reckhow, K.H. 1987. Empirical models for trophic state in southeastern U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Water Resour. Bull. 24: 723-734.
17. Reckhow, K.H. 1993. A random coefficient model for chlorophyll-nutrient relationships in lakes. Ecol. Model. 70: 35-50.
18. Reckhow, K.H., and Chapra, S.C. 1983. Engineering approaches for lake management. Vol. 1. Data analysis and empirical modeling. Butterworth Publishers, Boston, Mass.
19. Shapiro, J. 1990. Current beliefs regarding dominance by blue-greens: the case for the importance of CO2 and pH. Verh. Int. Ver. Limnol. 24: 38-54.
20. Smith, Y.H. 1986. Light and nutrient effects on the relative biomass of blue-green algae in lake phytoplankton. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 43: 148-153.
21. Soranno, P.A., Hubler, S.L., Carpenter, S.R., and Lathrop, R.C. 1996. Phosphorus loads to surface waters: a simple model to account for effects of land use. Ecol. Appl. 6: 865-878.
22. Stow, C.A., and Reckhow, K.H. 1996. Estimator bias in a lake phosphorus model with observation error. Water Resour. Res. 32: 165-170.
23. Stow, C.A., Carpenter, S.R., Amrhein, J.F., Eby, L.A., and Hesselberg, R.J. 1995. Evidence that PCBs are approaching stable concentrations in Lake Michigan fishes. Ecol. Appl. 5: 248-260.
24. Trimbee, A.M., and Prepas, E.E. 1987. Evaluation of total phosphorus as a predictor of the relative biomass of blue-green algae with emphasis on Alberta lakes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 44: 1337-1342.
25. Walker, W.W. 1985. Statistical bases for mean chlorophyll a criteria. Lake Reservoir Manage. 4: 57-62.
26. Watson, S., McCauley, E., and Downing, J.A. 1992. Sigmoid relationships between phosphorus, algal biomass, and algal community structure. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 49: 2605-2610.
27. Wolpert, R.L. 1991. Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian statistical analysis. Contemp. Math. 115: 101-116.
28. Zellner, A. 1971. An introduction to Bayesian inference in econometrics. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.