The unusually diverse mortality patterns in the Pacific region during the 1918–21 influenza pandemic: reflections at the pandemic's centenary

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

Volumn 18, Issue 10, 2018, Pages e323-e332

  Shanks, G Dennis ^a,b   Wilson, Nick ^c   Kippen, Rebecca ^d   Brundage, John F ^e  

^a AUSTRALIAN ARMY MALARIA INSTITUTE   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO   (New Zealand)

^d MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^e Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center (AFHSC)   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AUSTRALIA; CASE FATALITY RATE; DISEASE COURSE; EPIDEMIC; ETHNICITY; HUMAN; MORTALITY; NEW ZEALAND; PACIFIC ISLANDS; PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; SOCIAL ISOLATION; HISTORY; INFLUENZA; PANDEMIC; TIME FACTOR;

HISTORY, 20TH CENTURY; HUMANS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; PACIFIC ISLANDS; PANDEMICS; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 85046646842     PISSN: 14733099     EISSN: 14744457     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30178-6     Document Type: Review

References (85)

1. Shanks, GD, How World War 1 changed global attitudes to war and infectious diseases. Lancet 384 (2014), 1699–1707.
2. Morens, DM, Taubenberger, JK, Fauci, AS, The persistent legacy of the 1918 influenza virus. N Engl J Med 361 (2009), 225–229.
3. Taubenberger, JK, Morens, DM, 1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis 12 (2006), 15–22.
4. Morens, DM, Fauci, AS, The 1918 influenza pandemic: insights for the 21st century. J Infect Dis 195 (2007), 1018–1028.
5. Murray, CJL, Lopez, AD, Chin, B, Feehan, D, Hill, KH, Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis. Lancet 368 (2006), 2211–2218.
6. Shanks, GD, Brundage, JF, Pathogenic responses among young adults during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis 18 (2012), 201–207.
7. Shanks, G, MacKenzie, A, McLaughlin, R, et al. Mortality risk factors during the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in the Australian army. J Infect Dis 201 (2010), 1880–1889.
8. Brundage, JF, Shanks, GD, Sequential infections with influenza and novel respiratory bacteria. J Infect Dis 203 (2011), 1034–1035.
9. Sheng, Z-M, Chertow, DS, Ambroggio, X, et al. Autopsy series of 68 cases dying before and during the 1918 influenza pandemic peak. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108 (2011), 16416–16421.
10. Morens, DM, Taubenberger, JK, Fauci, AS, Predominant role of bacterial pneumonia as a cause of death in pandemic influenza; implications for pandemic influenza preparedness. J Infect Dis 198 (2008), 962–970.
11. McArthur, N, Island populations of the Pacific. 1968, Australian National University Press, Canberra.
12. Cliff, A, Haggett, P, Smallman-Raynor, M, Island epidemics. 2000, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
13. Schmitt, R, Nordyke, E, Influenza deaths in Hawaii, 1918–1920. Hawaiian J Hist 33 (1999), 101–117.
14. Shanks, GD, Hussell, T, Brundage, JF, Epidemiological isolation causing variable mortality in Island populations during the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 6 (2012), 417–423.
15. McLeod, MA, Baker, M, Wilson, N, Kelly, H, Kiedrzynski, T, Kool, JL, Protective effect of maritime quarantine in South Pacific jurisdictions, 1918–19 influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis 14 (2008), 468–470.
16. Abrahams, A, Hallows, N, French, H, A further investigation into influenza pneumococcal and influenza-streptococcal septicaemia: epidemic influenzal “pneumonia” of highly fatal type and its relation to “purulent bronchitis”. Lancet 193 (1919), 1–11.
17. Cumpston, J, Influenza and maritime quarantine in Australia. 1919, Australian Quarantine Service, Melbourne.
18. Crosby, AW, America's forgotten pandemic. 2nd edn., 2003, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
19. Summers, J, Wilson, N, Baker, M, Shanks, GD, Mortality risk factors for pandemic influenza on New Zealand troop ship, 1918. Emerg Infect Dis 16 (2010), 1931–1937.
20. Rice, G, Black November: the 1918 influenza pandemic in New Zealand. 2005, Canterbury University Press, Christchurch.
21. Newman, G, Report on the pandemic of influenza 1918–19. http://influenza.sph.unimelb.edu.au/data/S0001/chapters/preface.pdf, 1920. (Accessed 1 August 2017)
22. Paton, RT, Report on the influenza epidemic in New South Wales in 1919. https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/5262943?selectedversion=NBD43028870, 1920. (Accessed 1 August 2017)
23. McLane, JR, Setting a barricade against the east wind: western Polynesia and the 1918 influenza pandemic. PhD thesis, 2013, University of Otago.
24. Boyd, M, The military administration of Western Samoa, 1914–1919. NZ J History 2 (1968), 148–164.
25. Tomkins, SM, The influenza epidemic of 1918–19 in Western Samoa. J Pac His 27 (1992), 181–197.
26. Pool, D, The effects of the 1918 pandemic of influenza on the Maori population of New Zealand. Bull Hist Med 47 (1973), 273–281.
27. Carroll, V, Pacific atoll populations. 1975, University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu.
28. Morens, DM, Taubenberger, JK, 1918 influenza, a puzzle with missing pieces. Emerg Infect Dis 18 (2012), 332–335.
29. Wilson, N, Barnard, L, Summers, J, Shanks, GD, Baker, M, Differential mortality rates by ethnicity in 3 influenza pandemics over a century, New Zealand. Emerg Infect Dis 18 (2012), 71–77.
30. Shanks, GD, Brundage, JF, Pacific islands which escaped the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic and their subsequent mortality experiences. Epidem Infect 141 (2013), 353–356.
31. Shanks, GD, Waller, M, Smallman-Raynor, M, Spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic influenza-related deaths in Allied naval forces during 1918. Epidemiol Infect 141 (2013), 2205–2212.
32. Wilson, N, Oliver, J, Rice, G, et al. Age-specific mortality during the 1918–19 influenza pandemic and possible relationship to 1889–92 pandemic. J Infect Dis 210 (2014), 993–995.
33. Government of New Zealand. The New Zealand official year-book 1924. 1924, Statistics New Zealand, Wellington.
34. Summers, JA, Shanks, GD, Baker, MG, Wilson, N, Severe impact of the 1918–19 pandemic influenza in a national military force. NZ Med J 126 (2013), 36–47.
35. Maclean, FS, Challenge for health: a history of public health in New Zealand. 1964, Government Printer, Wellington.
36. Government of New Zealand. The Official New Zealand Yearbook 1920. 1920, Statistics New Zealand, Wellington.
37. Rice, G, Maori mortality in the 1918 influenza epidemic. NZ Popul Rev 9 (1983), 44–61.
38. Queensland Government. Annual report of the commissioner of public health Queensland. Brisbane, 1919.
39. Atkinson RCE. Report for the two years ending 31 Dec 1919 upon Medical, Health, Factories and Early Closing Departments. Perth, 1920.
40. Shanks, GD, Burroughs, S, Waters, N, Sohn, J, Smith, V, Brundage, JF, Effects of recent respiratory illnesses on clinical expressions of influenza during the 1918 pandemic. Mil Med 181 (2016), 878–882.
41. Sertsou, G, Wilson, N, Baker, M, Nelson, P, Roberts, MG, Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling. Theor Biol Med Model, 3, 2006, 38.
42. Abrahams, A, Hallows, NH, Eyre, JWH, French, H, Purulent bronchitis: its influenzal and pneumococcal bacteriology. Lancet 190 (1917), 377–382.
43. Eyre, JWH, Lowe, EC, Report upon the autumn influenza epidemic (1918) as it affected the N.Z.E.F. in the United Kingdom. Lancet 193 (1919), 553–560.
44. Elliot, G, Wilson, T, Moorhouse, W, Report of the Samoan Epidemic Commission. 1919, Government of New Zealand, Wellington.
45. Nishiura, H, Wilson, N, Baker, MG, Quarantine for pandemic influenza control at the borders of small island nations. BMC Infect Dis, 9, 2009, 27.
46. Cumpston, JHL, Health and disease in Australia: a history. 1989, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra.
47. Gunn, P, Kippen, R, Household and family formation in nineteenth-century Tasmania 1838–1899: deaths. https://www.ada.edu.au/historical/01119-d, Oct 6, 2016. (Accessed 1 August 2017)
48. Kippen, R, Deaths registered in Tasmania 1900–1930. https://research.monash.edu/en/publications/deaths-registered-in-tasmania-1900-1930, May 26, 2017. (Accessed 1 August 2017)
49. Shanks, GD, Waller, M, MacKenzie, A, Brundage, JF, Determinants of mortality in naval units during the 1918–19 influenza pandemic. Lancet Infect Dis 11 (2011), 793–799.
50. Government of Fiji. Report of the commission appointed to inquire into decrease of the native population. Suva: Colony of Fiji, 1893.
51. Lambert S. The depopulation of Pacific races. Bernice P Bishop Museum Special Publication 23, 1934.
52. Vaughan, VC, Palmer, GT, Communicable disease in the United States Army during the summer and autumn of 1918. J Lab Clin Med 4 (1919), 647–686.
53. Braisted, W, Annual reports of the navy department for the fiscal year 1919. 1920, US Navy, Washington DC.
54. Ireland, M, Report of the Surgeon General. War Department Annual Reports. 1920, GPO, Washington DC.
55. Crampton, HE, On the differential effects of the influenza epidemic among native peoples of the Pacific islands. Science 55 (1922), 90–92.
56. Shlomowitz, R, Mortality and the Pacific labour trade. J Pacific Hist 22 (1987), 34–55.
57. Shlomowitz, R, Differential mortality of Asians and Pacific Islanders in the Pacific labour trade. J Popul Res 7 (1990), 116–127.
58. Delater, D, La grippe dans la Nation Armee de 1918. Revue d'Hygiene 45 (1923), 408–426 (in French).
59. Peltier, M, L'epidemie d'influenza qi a sevi en Nouvelle-Caledonie en 1921. Bull l'Office Int d'Hygiene Publique 14 (1922), 676–685 (in French).
60. Grey, F, Notes on epidemic broncho-pneumonia (Spanish influenza) in Samoa. Med J Aust 1 (1919), 359–361.
61. Joseph, A, Murray, V, Bender, L, Chamorros and Carolinians of Saipan. 1951, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
62. Worobey, M, Han, G, Rambaut, A, Genesis and pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111 (2014), 8107–8112.
63. Turner, G, Samoa, nineteen years in Polynesia. 1986, Western Samoa Historical and Cultural Trust, Apia.
64. Marshall, HK, Influenza in Fiji. JAMA 83 (1927), 2133–2134.
65. Shanks, GD, Lee, SE, Howard, A, Brundage, JF, Extreme mortality after first introduction of measles virus to the polynesian island of Rotuma, 1911. Am J Epidemiol 173 (2011), 1211–1222.
66. Tumpey, TM, Basler, CF, Aguilar, PV, et al. Characterization of the reconstructed 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic virus. Science 310 (2005), 77–80.
67. Garcia-Sastre, A, Whitley, RJ, Lessons learned from reconstructing the 1918 influenza pandemic. J Infect Dis 194:suppl 2 (2006), S127–S132.
68. Shanks, GD, Milinovich, GJ, Waller, M, Clements, A, Opinion: spatiotemporal investigation of the 1918 influenza pandemic in military populations indicates two different viruses. Epidemiol Infect 143 (2015), 1816–1825.
69. Erskine, JE, Journal of a cruise among the islands of the western Pacific. 1853, J Murray, London.
70. Davies, S, The influenza epidemic. BMJ 1 (1892), 355–357.
71. Davies, S, Influenza in the South Pacific. BMJ 1 (1893), 982–983.
72. McAuley, JL, Kedzierska, K, Brown, LE, Shanks, GD, Host immunological factors enhancing mortality of young adults during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Front Immunol, 6, 2015, 419.
73. Brown, P, Gajdusek, D, Disease patterns and vaccine-response studies in isolated Micronesian populations. Am J Trop Med Hyg 19 (1970), 170–175.
74. Collins, SD, Age and sex incidence of influenza and pneumonia morbidity and mortality in the epidemic of 1928–29 with comparative data for the epidemic of 1918–19: based on surveys of families in certain localities in the United States following the epidemics. Public Health Rep (1896–1970), 1931, 1909–1937.
75. Quandelacy, TM, Viboud, C, Charu, V, Lipsitch, M, Goldstein, E, Age-and sex-related risk factors for influenza-associated mortality in the United States between 1997–2007. Am J Epidemiol 179 (2014), 156–167.
76. Serfling, RE, Sherman, IL, Houseworth, WJ, Excess pneumonia-influenza mortality by age and sex in three major influenza A2 epidemics, United States, 1957–58, 1960 and 1963. Am J Epidemiol 86 (1967), 433–441.
77. Shinya, K, Okamura, T, Sueta, S, et al. Toll-like receptor pre-stimulation protects mice against lethal infection with highly pathogenic influenza viruses. Virol J, 8, 2011, 97.
78. Vidal, SM, Khakoo, SI, Biron, CA, Natural killer cell responses during viral infections: flexibility and conditioning of innate immunity by experience. Curr Opin Virol 1 (2011), 497–512.
79. Carter, DM, Lu, H-R, Bloom, CE, et al. Complex patterns of human antisera reactivity to novel 2009 H1N1 and historical H1N1 influenza strains. PLoS One, 7, 2012, e39435.
80. Damjanovic, D, Small, C-L, Jeyananthan, M, McCormick, S, Xing, Z, Immunopathology in influenza virus infection: uncoupling the friend from foe. Clin Immunol 144 (2012), 57–69.
81. Brundage, JF, Interactions between influenza and bacterial respiratory pathogens: implications for pandemic preparedness. Lancet Infect Dis 6 (2006), 303–312.
82. Gagnon, A, Acosta, JE, Madrenas, J, Miller, MS, Is antigenic sin always “original?” Re-examining the evidence regarding circulation of a human H1 influenza virus immediately prior to the 1918 Spanish flu. PLoS Pathog, 11, 2015, e1004615.
83. Isaacs, A, Edney, M, Donnelley, M, Ingram, M, Influenza in an isolated community: an epidemic on Ocean Island. Lancet 255 (1950), 64–66.
84. Scragg, R, Historical epidemiology in Papua New Guinea. PNG Med J 20 (1977), 102–109.
85. Taylor, R, Nemaia, H, Tukuitonga, C, et al. An epidemic of influenza in the population of Niue. J Med Virol 16 (1985), 127–136.