Approaches and principles for an Israeli Grand Strategy towards the European Union

European Foreign Affairs Review

Volumn 11, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 17-44

  Dror, Yehezkel ^a   Pardo, Sharon ^b  

^a HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM   (Israel)

^b BEN GURION UNIVERSITY OF THE NEGEV   (Israel)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85044803782     PISSN: 13846299     EISSN: 18758223     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.54648/eerr2006002     Document Type: Review

References (139)

1. See: Yehezkel Dror, A Grand Strategy for Israel (Academon, in Hebrew, Jerusalem, 1989), ch. 3
2. Yehezkel Dror, Grand-Strategic Thinking for Israel, Policy Papers 23 (Ariel Center for Policy Research, Ariel, 1998).
3. Strong ideological commitments can serve as motivations making achievement of the nearly impossible a reality, by 'self-fulfilling prophecy' dynamics. But they can also serve as reality blinders and learning inhibitors, through what has aptly been called 'motivated irrationality'. See David Pears, Motivated Irrationality (Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1984).
4. The 'new antisemitism' is a danger that requires comprehensive, multi-faceted and long-term counter-strategies. See: Yehezkel Dror, Confronting Antisemitism: A Strategic Perspective, Outline Strategic Paper (The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Jerusalem, 2004)
5. Heinrich Böll Foundation, Europe-Israel: A Troubled Relationship: Is there a New Anti-Semitism (Heinrich Böll Foundation, Tel-Aviv, 2003).
6. See European Commission, Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. Recommendation of the European Commission on Turkey's Progress towards Accession. COM (2004) 656 final (Brussels: European Commission, 6 October 2004)
7. Peter Ludlow, A View From Brussels: Dealing with Turkey - The European Council of 16-17 December 2004 (EuroComment, Brussels, 2005)
8. Michael Lake, The EU and Turkey: A Gitering Prize or Millstone (Federal Trust for Education Research, London, 2005)
9. Wolfgang Quaisser and Steve Wood, 'Turkey's Road to the EU: Political Dynamics, Strategic Context and Implications for Europe' (2005) 10 EFA Rev, pp. 147-173
10. Angela Merkel, 'Merkel wirbt für privilegierte Partnerschaft mit der Türkei [Merkel Advocates Privileged Partnership with Turkey]', German Bundestag, 16 December 2004, available at , accessed 4 August 2005
11. Thomas Diez, 'Turkey, the European Union and Security Complexes Revisited' (2005) 10 Mediterranean Politics, pp. 167-180
12. Meltem Müftüler-Bac, 'Turkey's Political Reforms and the Impact of the European Union' (2005) 10 South European Politics & Society, pp. 16-30
13. Nathalie Tocci and Ahmet Evin (eds), Towards Accession Negotiations: Turkey's Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges Ahead (RSCAS Press, Florence, 2004)
14. The Independent Commission on Turkey, Turkey in Europe: More than a Promise? (The Independent Commission on Turkey, Brussels, 2004), , accessed 6 September 2004.
15. For the homepage of the EU's relations with Turkey see , accessed 27 February 2005.
16. Thomas Nagel, The View From Nowhere (Oxford University Press, New York, 1986).
17. See Jacques Silber and Z.M. Berrebi, 'The 1975 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Israeli Exports' in Ilan Greilsammer and Joseph H.H. Weiler (eds), Europe and Israel: Troubled Neighbors (Walter de Gruyter, New York, 1988).
18. Motty Basuk, 'Increase in Import and Export in the first Half of 2005', The Marker, 20 July 2005 (in Hebrew)
19. Monthly Israeli-EU trade statistics are available on the website of Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, , accessed 8 March 2005.
20. For an in-depth survey see: Nellie Munin, The EU and Israel: State of the Play (Israeli Ministry of Finance International Department, Jerusalem, 2003, in Hebrew)
21. The Israel-EU Forum, 'Israel's Way to the European Union', EU-Israel Forum, Tel-Aviv University and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Tel-Aviv, 2002.
22. 'Euro-Mediterranean Agreement Establishing an Association between the European Communities and their Member States, of the One Part, and the State of Israel, of the Other Part', Official Journal of the European Communities, L147/3, 21 June 2000. The Agreement is also available on the website of the European Commission, , accessed 1 March 2005.
23. For further discussion of the EU-Israel Association Agreement see: Sharon Pardo and Lior Zemer, 'The Qualified Zones in Transition: Navigating the Dynamics of the Euro-Israeli Customs Dispute' (2003) 8 EFA Rev, pp. 51-75
24. 'Special Issue on the Association Agreement between Israel and the European Union' (2001) 114 Israel Tax Quarterly, (in Hebrew)
25. Moshe Hirsch, 'The 1995 Trade Agreement between the European Communities and Israel: Three Unresolved Issues' (1996) 1 EFA Rev, pp. 87-123.
26. During the Fifth Framework Programme, Israel was involved in 623 projects and 149 of them were coordinated by Israeli partners. In 2003, the first year of the Sixth Framework Programme, 831 Israeli bodies participated in various call for proposals under the Programme. Additional information regarding Israel and the Sixth Framework Programme is available on the website of the Israel-Europe R&D Directorate for EU FP6, , accessed 9 March 2005.
27. Inon Dafni, 'Economic Cooperation between Israel and the Other Mediterranean non-Member Countries (MNMCs): Vision vs. Reality', paper presented at the Third Mediterranean Social and Political Research Meeting, Florence 2002
28. for an in-depth discussion and analysis on Israel and the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership see: Tal Sadeh, 'Israel and a Euro-Mediterranean Internal Market' (2004) 9 Mediterranean Politics, pp. 29-52
29. Alfred Tovias, 'Israeli Policy Perspectives on the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership in the Context of EU Enlargement' (2003) 8/2-3 Mediterranean Politics, pp. 214-232
30. Raffaella A. Del Sarto, 'Israel's Contested Identity and the Mediterranean' (2003) 8 Mediterranean Politics, pp. 27-58
31. Raffaella A. Del Sarto and Alfred Tovias, 'Caught between Europe and the Orient: Israel and the EMP' (2001) 36/4 International Spectator, pp. 61-75
32. Shlomo Avineri and Werner Weidenfeld (eds), Integration and Identity: Challenges to Europe and Israel (Europa Union Verlag, Bonn, 1999).
33. For the EMP website see , accessed 8 March 2004.
34. The EU-Israel Action Plan is available on the website of the European Neighbourhood Policy at , accessed 8 March 2004.
35. Among the most useful documents and articles on the ENP see, European Commission, Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. Wider Europe-Neighbourhood: A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours. COM(2003) 104 final, 11 March 2003, Brussels
36. European Commission, Communication from the Commission European Neighbourhood Policy: Strategy Paper COM(2004) 373 final, 12 May 2004, Brussels
37. European Commission, Commission Staff Working Paper. European Neighbourhood Policy - Country Report Israel COM(2004) 373 final. SEC(2004) 568, 12 May 2004, Brussels
38. for an in-depth discussion and analysis regarding the ENP see: Sharon Pardo and Lior Zemer, 'Towards a New Euro-Mediterranean Neighbourhood Space' (2005) 10 EFA Rev, pp. 39-77
39. Sharon Pardo, 'Europe of Many Circles: European Neighbourhood Policy' (2004) 9 Geopolitics, pp. 731-738
40. Roberto Aliboni, 'The Geopolitical Implications of the European Neighbourhood Policy' (2005) 10 EFA Rev, pp. 1-16
41. Raffaella A. Del Sarto and Tobias Schumacher, 'From EMP to ENP: What's at Stake with the European Neighbourhood Policy towards the Southern Mediterranean?' (2005) 10 EFA Rev, pp. 17-38
42. Rosa Balfour and Alessandro Rotta, 'Beyond Enlargement. The European Neighbourhood Policy and its Tools' (2005) XL/I The International Spectator, pp. 7-20
43. Nathalie Tocci, 'Does the ENP Respond to the EU's Post Enlargement Challenges?' (2005) XL/I The International Spectator, pp. 21-32
44. Dov Lynch, 'The Security Dimension of the European Neighbourhood Policy' (2004) XL/I The International Spectator, pp. 33-43
45. Michael Emerson, The Wider Europe Matrix (Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, 2004)
46. Fulvio Attiná and R. Rossi (eds), European Neighbourhood Policy: Political, Economic and Social Issues (The Jean Monnet Centre, Catania, 2004)
47. Michael Emerson, Senem Aydn, Gergana Noutcheva, Nathalie Tocci, Marius Vahl and Richard Youngs, 'The Reluctant Debutante: The European Union as Promoter of Democracy in its Neighbourhood', CEPS Working Document 223, July 2005
48. Michael Emersson and Gregana Noutcheva, 'From Barcelona Process to Neighbourhood Policy', CEPS Working Document 220, March 2005
49. Michael Emerson, 'European Neighbourhood Policy: Strategy or Placebo?', CEPS Working Document 215, November 2004
50. William Wallace, 'Looking After the Neighbourhood: Responsibilities for the EU-25', Notre Europe Policy Papers, 4 July 2003.
51. For a perspective on the implications of the EU's fifth enlargement for Israel, see Alfred Tovias and Amichai Magen, 'Reflections from the New Near Outside: An Israeli Perspective on the Economic and Legal Impact of EU Enlargement' (2005) 10 EFA Rev, pp. 399-425.
52. Statement of the Israeli Foreign Minister, quoted by David Kriss, 'European Neighbourhood Policy: Israel Action Plan Endorsed', Europe in Israel, 75, January 2005, pp. 1-2.
53. The central parts of the Venice Declaration (Bulletin of the EC, 6 [1980], 10-11) discuss: (i) the Palestinian problem, (ii) the status of Jerusalem, and (iii) the question of the Jewish settlements. The Declaration is also available at , accessed 12 March 2005.
54. The EU is against Israel's construction of the separation fence, claiming the move is illegal. After his July 2005 meeting with the Israeli Foreign Minister, High Representative Javier Solana declared that 'we think that Israel has the right to defend itself but we think that the fence which will stand outside the territory of Israel is not legally proper and it also creates humanitarian problems'; qoted by Elitsa Vucheva, 'EU Says Israeli Barrier is Illegal', EUobserver, 12 July 2005, available on the EUobserver website , accessed 13 July 2005.
55. 'Legal Consequences of the Construction of a Wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (Request by the UN General Assembly for an Advisory Opinion)', ICJ Reports, No. 131, 2004.
56. GA/10248, 20 July 2004.
57. In adopting the Resolution by a vote of 150 to 6, with 10 abstentions, the UN General Assembly also called on all UN members to comply with its obligations as contained in the finding by the International Court of Justice, which include a duty 'not to recognize the illegal situation resulting from the construction of the wall in the occupied Palestinian territory, including in and around East Jerusalem' and 'not to render aid or assistance in maintaining the situation created by such construction'. In response to the European vote, the Israeli foreign ministry declared that 'Israel is particularly disappointed by the European stand. The willingness of the EU to fall in with the Palestinian position, together with its desire to reach a European consensus at the price of descending to the lowest common denominator, raises doubts as to the ability of the EU to contribute anything constructive to the diplomatic process': 'Israel: UN Vote Encourages Palestinian Terrorism', Israel Foreign Ministry Spokesman, 21 July 2004, available on the MFA website at , accessed 27 July 2004.
58. Applying the ideas of Donald A. Schon and Martin Rein, Frame Reflection: Towards the Resolution of Intractable Policy Controversies (HarperCollins, New York, 1995 reprint).
59. See: Felix Neugart (ed.), 'Europe and the Middle East - Perspectives for Engagement and Cooperation', Discussion Paper of the IX Kronberg Talks, 23-25 January 2005 (Bertelsmann Stiftung and the Center for Applied Policy Research, Gütersloh, 2005)
60. Steven Everts, The EU and the Middle East: A Call For Action (Center for European Reform, London, 2003)
61. Martin Ortega, The European Union and the Crisis in the Middle East (Institute for Security Studies, Paris, 2003)
62. Vassiliki N. Koutrakou (ed.), Contemporary Issues and Debates in EU Policy: The European Union and International Relations (Manchester University Press, Manchester, 2004).
63. For a thorough analysis of the relationship between the EU and the Middle East from the early 1950s until 2001 see: Søren Dosenrode and Anders Stubkjær, The European Union and the Middle East (Sheffield Academic Press, London, 2002)
64. Panayiotis Ifestos, European Political Cooperation: Towards a Framework of Supranational Diplomacy? (Avebury, Aldersho, 1987).
65. See , accessed 5 August 2005.
66. European Commission, EU and Israel Seal their Agreement on GALILEO IP/04/900, Brussels, 14 July 2004.
67. For example, in June 2004, a large arms deal worth over USD50 million was signed between Israel and the European defence conglomerate EADS; 'Largest Arms Deal between France and Israel Since 1967', Besheva (Channel 7 Radio, Israel), 17 June 2004.
68. In the sense of Joseph S. Nye Jr., Soft Power: The Means of Success in World Politics (Public Affairs Press, New York, 2004).
69. For a discussion on ways of building and consolidating Israel's and the Jewish peoples' soft power see Sharon Pardo, 'Soft Power: A National Asset', Strategic Paper No. 2, The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, January 2005.
70. In an interview with the Jerusalem Post, Ambassador Krzysztof Plominski, the director of the Middle East Department of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, termed his country's relations with Israel as 'excellent'; reported by Etgar Lefkovits, 'Poland: No EU Contacts with Hamas for Now', The Jerusalem Post, 1 July 2005, p. 9.
71. Excerpt from report in English by Greek Cypriot news agency CNA as reported by BBC Monitoring, 'Israel Seeks Better Ties with Cyprus - Foreign Minister', BBC Monitoring International Reports, 16 May 2005.
72. Less than two days after the London attacks, Gloria Laycock, director at the Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, suggested to British security services that 'if the perpetrators were suicide bombers then Israel might be able to provide some expertise because there were certain patterns of behaviour which suicide bombers followed'; reported by BBC News, 'Will the Bombers Be Caught?', BBC News UK Edition, 9 July 2005, available on the BBC website , accessed 9 July 2005.
73. For an excellent account of European-Israeli security cooperation see Shlomo Shpiro and Klaus Becher, European-Israeli Security and Defence Cooperation: Expectations and Impediments (Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Tel-Aviv, 2004).
74. As was only recently declared yet again, this time by the President of the European Parliament, Josep Borrell in his speech to the Israeli Knesset: 'I wish to reaffirm Europe's commitment to, and its special responsibility for, the existence of Israel as a Jewish state and as a democracy living in security and peace with its neighbours'; Josep Borell, 'Speech By the President of the European Parliament, Josep Borell to the Knesset. DI\572297EN.doc', 27 June 2005, p. 2, also available at, , accessed 6 August 2005.
75. Address by Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom before the European Union Council of Ministers, Brussels, 21 July 2003, p. 2, also available at , accessed 7 March 2005.
76. We limit strategic thinking to a maximum of fifty years and less, because we are living in an epoch of ruptures in historic continuity which turns longer-range outlooks into doubtful speculations. This is far longer than the time horizons of most strategic work, which tends to be much too short-sighted. It is better to adopt a longer time frame with more uncertainty but still without being dominated by inconceivability, aided by uncertainty-coping methods, than to try and improve policies within a short time frame that ignores minimum live cycles of main policies and long-term possibly dismal consequences. A good introduction to coping with uncertainty applicable to long-term strategic planning, based on RAND Corporation experience, is James A. Dewar, Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2002).
77. There are methods which may permit longer-range (gu)estimates. It would be worthwhile to experiment with such approaches to the subject of this paper, perhaps as a shared EU and Israeli project with additional partners. Some of the best available methods for doing so are presented in Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper and Steven C. Bankes, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Qualitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis (The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2003).
78. Dahaf Institute, Israeli's Attitudes Towards the European Union (Dahaf Institute, Tel Aviv, 2004), available on the website of the Delegation of the EU Commission to Israel, , accessed 15 March 2005.
79. Dahaf Institute, Appendix: Tables of Distributions of Responses - Israeli's Attitudes Towards the European Union (Dahaf Institute, Tel Aviv, 2004), p. 60, available on the website of the Delegation of the EU Commission to Israel, , accessed 15 March 2005.
80. Dahaf Institute, Appendix: Tables of Distributions of Responses - Israeli's Attitudes Towards the European Union (Dahaf Institute, Tel Aviv, 2004), p. 60, available on the website of the Delegation of the EU Commission to Israel, , accessed 15 March 2005.
81. The manifesto is available at , accessed 15 March 2005.
82. Reported by Israeli Military Radio, 9 November 2002
83. see also Sharon Sadeh, 'Israel? In the EU?', Haaretz, 10 December 2002 (in Hebrew).
84. 'Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel to the European Parliament Delegation: "I Don't Exclude the Formal Request to Become a Member of the EU"', Transnational Radical Party, 19 May 2003
85. See also Martin Walker, 'Analysis: Israel Weighing EU Membership', United Press International, 21 May 2003.
86. Hadas Manor, 'Berlusconi: Italy will Support Israeli EU Membership', Globes, 3 October 2004 (in Hebrew).
87. See the Transnational Radical Party campaign, 'Israel in the European Union Now', , accessed 15 March 2005.
88. An important differentiation between 'ordinary' and radical difference is worked out in Carl R. Hausman, A Discourse on Novelty and Creation (2nd edn, State University of New York Press, Albany, 1984).
89. For a comparative work on Israel as a Jewish state and/or the State of the Jewish People and the family of nations see Alexander Yakobson and Amnon Rubinstein, Israel and the Family of Nations. Jewish Nation-State and Human Rights (Schocken Publishing House Ltd, Tel Aviv, 2003, in Hebrew).
90. Adar Primor, 'EU Commissioner for External Relations: We Will Take Advantage of the Improvement of Relations with the USA for a Deeper Involvement of the EU in the Peace Process', Haaretz, 8 February 2005 (in Hebrew).
91. Itamar Eichner, 'An Advocacy Lesson: At a Jerusalem Conference Sharon Demanded from the Ambassadors to Europe: "Do not be Afraid of Anyone"', Yediot Ahronoth, 29 December 2004, p. 19 (in Hebrew).
92. If eventually ratified, the new European Constitution ('Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe', Official Journal of the European Union, 2004/C310/01, 16 December 2004) will provide a strong basis for strengthening the EU as a global actor.
93. 'The Constitution presents a critical new step in the development of the EU: what the Maastricht Treaty did for the euro, the Constitution could do for Europe's role in the world', Javier Solana, 'The Future of the European Union as an International Actor', available on the website of YES (Young Europeans for Security), , accessed 23 March 2005.
94. The full text of the Constitution is available on the Constitution for Europe website at , accessed 6 August 2005.
95. For a discussion of the EU constitutional crisis, the Middle East and Israel, see Manfred Gerstenfeld, 'The EU Constitutional Crisis, the Middle East and Israel', Jerusalem Issue Brief, 4(25), 26 June 2005, also available at , accessed 27 June 2005
96. Bitterlemons-International, 'The EU Crisis and the Middle East', 27(3), 21 July 2005, available at accessed 21 July 2005.
97. See, Charlotte Bretherton and John Vogler, The European Union as a Global Actor (2nd edn, Routledge, London, 2005).
98. See Javier Solana, 'A Secure Europe in A Better World - European Security Strategy', The Council of the European Union, Brussels, 12 December 2003.
99. The Security Strategy is also available at , accessed 18 March 2005.
100. See, for instance, Werner Weidenfeld et al., From Alliance to Coalitions: The Future of Transatlantic Relations (Bertelsmann Foundation Publishers, Guetersloh, 2004)
101. Timothy Garton Ash, Free World: Why the Crisis of the West Reveals the Opportunity of Our Time (Allen Lane, London, 2004).
102. 'Remarks by President George W. Bush', Concert Noble, Brussels, 21 February 2005.
103. The text is also available on the website of the US Mission to the EU at , accessed 18 March 2005.
104. 'The Role of the EU in the Middle East - Remarks by Ambassador Oded Eran', The Van Leer Jerusalem Institute, Jerusalem, 10 January 2005.
105. See, for instance, Manfred Gerstenfeld, Israel and Europe: An Expanding Abyss? (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, Jerusalem, 2005)
106. Gisela Dachs and Joel Peters, Israel and Europe, the Troubled Relationship: Between Perceptions and Reality (Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Tel-Aviv, 2004).
107. Editor, 'EU Official Urges Mideast Peace Efforts After London Blasts', Der Spiegel, 11 July 2005, p. 129 (in German).
108. The English text is also available at , accessed 11 July 2005.
109. Flash Eurobarometer, 'Iraq and Peace in the World - Full Report 151', European Commission, Brussels, 2003.
110. The survey is also available on the European Commission website at , accessed 20 March 2005.
111. Especially pertinent are explanations of Islamic fundamentalism as, paradoxically, a result of modernization; and of Islamic anti-Western attitudes as rooted in the history of Western victories over Islamic countries and radical cultural differences. See: S. N. Eisenstadt, Fundamentalism, Sectarianism, and Revolution: The Jacobin Dimension of Modernity (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999)
112. Ian Buruma and Avishai Margalit, Occidentalism: The West in the Eyes of Its Enemies (Penguin Press, New York, 2004)
113. Akbar S. Ahmed, Islam Under Siege: Living Dangerously in a Post-Honor World (Polity Press, Cambridge, 2003).
114. See the unique but in our view incorrect treatment in Gabriel Sheffer, Diaspora Politics: At Home Abroad (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2003).
115. This may cause increasing tensions with EU Member States who often are very reluctant to meet demands for full restitutions and reparations, for instance in respect to real estate and objects of art. See, Stuart Eizenstat, Imperfect Justice (Public Affairs Press, New York, 2004).
116. Very significant is the initiative by the President of the State of Israel to set up a Jewish People Council as a kind of consultative second chamber of the Israeli Parliament. See 'Jewish People Global Forum', The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Jerusalem, 2005, available on the JPPPI website at , accessed 30 March 2005.
117. For an original and very pertinent historic treatment see Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History (Knopf, New York, 2002).
118. See also Kofi Annan, 'In Larger Freedom: Towards Development, Security and Human Rights for All', Report of the Secretary General A/59/2005, United Nations, 21 March 2005.
119. The report is also available on the UN website at , accessed 21 March 2005.
120. See Yehezkel Dror, 'Confronting Atrocious Evil', Midstream, January 2003, pp. 18-20.
121. Marc Cogen, 'The West, Europe and the Islam', The Center for the Study of European Politics and Society, Working Paper No. 1, Beer Sheva, 2005, also available at , accessed 6 August 2005
122. see also Daniel Keohane, The EU and Counter-Terrorism (Centre for European Reforms, London, 2005).
123. For a short brief and a collection of the EU official documents on the Union's anti-terrorism policy see EurActiv.com - EU News, Policy Positions & EU Actors Online, available at , accessed 6 August 2005.
124. HCJ 2056/04, Beit Sourik Village Council v. The Government of Israel. The English text of the HCJ judgment is also available at , accessed 20 March 2005.
125. For these concepts and their criticism see Peter J. Spiro, 'The New Sovereigntists: American Exceptionalism and Its False Prophets' (2000) 79/6 Foreign Affairs
126. further discussed in Peter J. Spiro, 'What Happened to the "New Sovereigntism"?' (2004) July 28 (author update) Foreign Affairs.
127. Robert Kagan, Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order (Atlantic Books, London, 2003), p. 3. Garton Ash expresses the contrary view, note 59 above.
128. See Yehezkel Dror, Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Issue (Heath, Lexington, 1971 (Kraus Reprints enlarged edition, 1980)).
129. See Yehezkel Dror, The Capacity to Govern (Frank Cass, London, 2002), passim
130. Yehezkel Dror, 'From My Perspective: Lucifer Smiles' (2002) 69/4 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, pp. 431-435.
131. The best description and analysis is provided in Dennis Ross, The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York, 2004). The fact that the EU did not play any real role in this process is significant.
132. For an even broader perspective of present 'capacities to govern' as inadequate for coping for complex problems, including global and regional security issues see Yehezkel Dror, The Capacity to Govern, note 80 above.
133. This apt concept is well presented in Charles Taylor, Modern Social Imaginaries (Duke University Press, Durham, 2004).
134. However, the idea of Europe having a Judeo-Christian civilization is misleading in underrating the radical differences between Judaism and Christianity. See, for instance, Rosemarin Trude Weiss, Judaism and Christianity: The Difference (Jonathan David, Middle Village, N Y, 1997, first published 1943)
135. Tsvi Bisk and Moshe Dror, Futurizing the Jews: Alternative Futures for Meaningful Jewish Existence in the 21st Century (Praeger, Westport, CT, 2003), ch. 10.
136. Interesting to try and apply is Howard Gardner, Changing Minds: The Art and Science of Changing Our Own and Other People's Minds (Harvard Business School Press, Boston, 2004).
137. See Shalom Salomon Wald, China and the Jewish People: Old Civilizations in a New Era (Gefen Publishing House, Jerusalem, 2004).
138. This requires taking into account global developments as a whole, such as discussed in National Intelligence Council, 'Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Report', Washington, GPO, December 2004, also available at , accessed 17 April 2005
139. Thomas L. Friedman, The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York, 2005).