The spatiotemporal transmission of dengue and its driving mechanism: A case study on the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangdong, China

Science of the Total Environment

Volumn 622-623, Issue , 2018, Pages 252-259

  Zhu, Guanghu ^a,b   Xiao, Jianpeng ^a   Zhang, Bing ^a   Liu, Tao ^a   Lin, Hualiang ^a   Li, Xing ^a   Song, Tie ^a   Zhang, Yonghui ^a   Ma, Wenjun ^a   Hao, Yuantao ^b  

^a GUANGZHOU CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (China)

^b SUN YAT SEN UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Dengue epidemic; Human movement; Infectivity network; Spatiotemporal transmission pattern

Indexed keywords

POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION STATISTICS; RISK ASSESSMENT; VIRUSES;

DENGUE EPIDEMIC; HUMAN MOVEMENTS; MOSQUITO POPULATIONS; SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTOR; SPATIOTEMPORAL PROCESS; SPATIOTEMPORAL TRANSMISSION PATTERN; TEMPORAL SEQUENCES; TRANSMISSION MODEL;

EPIDEMIOLOGY;

DENGUE FEVER; DISEASE SPREAD; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; INFECTIVITY; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; CASE STUDY; CHINA; DENGUE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; GRAVITY INDEX; GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MOSQUITO; NONHUMAN; PHYSICAL PARAMETERS; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SOCIOECONOMICS; SPATIAL DISTANCE; WAVELET ANALYSIS; ANIMAL; CITY; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TRANSMISSION; VIROLOGY;

CHINA; GUANGDONG;

ANIMALS; CHINA; CITIES; CULICIDAE; DENGUE; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EPIDEMICS; HUMANS; SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 85036456413     PISSN: 00489697     EISSN: 18791026     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.314     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Bhatt, S., Gething, P.W., Brady, O.J., Messina, J.P., Farlow, A.W., Moyes, C.L., Drake, J.M., Brownstein, J.S., Hoen, A.G., Sankoh, O., et al. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature 496:7446 (2013), 504–507.
2. Cazelles, B., Chavez, M., de Magny, G.C., Guégan, J.-F., Hales, S., Time-dependent spectral analysis of epidemiological time-series with wavelets. J. R. Soc. Interface 4:15 (2007), 625–636.
3. Cheng, Q., Jing, Q., Spear, R.C., Marshall, J.M., Yang, Z., Gong, P., Climate and the timing of imported cases as determinants of the dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: evidence from a mathematical model. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 10(2), 2016, e0004417.
4. Cheng, Q., Lu, X., Wu, J.T., Liu, Z., Huang, J., Analysis of heterogeneous dengue transmission in Guangdong in 2014 with multivariate time series model. Sci. Rep., 6, 2016.
5. Delmelle, E., Hagenlocher, M., Kienberger, S., Casas, I., A spatial model of socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue fever in Cali, Colombia. Acta Trop., 164, 2016, 169.
6. Descloux, E., Mangeas, M., Menkes, C.E., Lengaigne, M., Leroy, A., Tehei, T., Guillaumot, L., Teurlai, M., Gourinat, A.-C., Benzler, J., et al. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 6(2), 2012, e1470.
7. Eastin, M.D., Delmelle, E., Casas, I., Wexler, J., Self, C., Intra- and interseasonal autoregressive prediction of dengue outbreaks using local weather and regional climate for a tropical environment in Colombia. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 91:3 (2014), 598–610.
8. Guzman, M.G., Halstead, S.B., Artsob, H., Buchy, P., Farrar, J., Gubler, D.J., Hunsperger, E., Kroeger, A., Margolis, H.S., Martínez, E., et al. Dengue: a continuing global threat. Nature Rev. Microbiol. 8 (2010), S7–S16.
9. Guzman, M.G., Harris, E., Dengue. Lancet 385:9966 (2015), 453–465.
10. Johansson, M.A., Cummings, D.A., Glass, G.E., Multiyear climate variability and dengue El Nino southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: a longitudinal data analysis. PLoS Med., 6(11), 2009, e1000168.
11. Khormi, H.M., Kumar, L., Modeling dengue fever risk based on socioeconomic parameters, nationality and age groups: GIS and remote sensing based case study. Sci. Total Environ. 409:22 (2011), 4713–4719.
12. Kraemer, M.U., Perkins, T.A., Cummings, D.A., Zakar, R., Hay, S.I., Smith, D.L., Reiner, R.C., Big city, small world: density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan. J. R. Soc. Interface, 12(111), 2015, 20150468.
13. Lai, S., Huang, Z., Zhou, H., Anders, K.L., Perkins, T.A., Yin, W., Li, Y., Mu, D., Chen, Q., Zhang, Z., et al. The changing epidemiology of dengue in China, 1990–2014: a descriptive analysis of 25 years of nationwide surveillance data. BMC Med., 13(1), 2015, 100.
14. Lambrechts, L., Paaijmans, K.P., Fansiri, T., Carrington, L.B., Kramer, L.D., Thomas, M.B., Scott, T.W., Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 108:18 (2011), 7460–7465.
15. Li, M.-T., Sun, G.-Q., Yakob, L., Zhu, H.-P., Jin, Z., Zhang, W.-Y., The driving force for 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangdong, China. PLoS ONE, 11(11), 2016, e0166211.
16. Lin, H., Liu, T., Song, T., Lin, L., Xiao, J., Lin, J., He, J., Zhong, H., Hu, W., Deng, A., et al. Community involvement in dengue outbreak control: an integrated rigorous intervention strategy. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 10(8), 2016, e0004919.
17. Liu, F., Zhou, C., Lin, P., Studies on the population ecology of Aedes albopictus. Acta Sci. Natur. Univ. Sunyatseni 29:2 (1990), 118–122.
18. Morrison, A.C., Minnick, S.L., Rocha, C., Forshey, B.M., Stoddard, S.T., Getis, A., Focks, D.A., Russell, K.L., Olson, J.G., Blair, P.J., et al. Epidemiology of dengue virus in Iquitos, Peru 1999 to 2005: interepidemic and epidemic patterns of transmission. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 4(5), 2010, e670.
19. Racloz, V., Ramsey, R., Tong, S., Hu, W., Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 6(5), 2012, e1648.
20. Reiner, R.C., Perkins, T.A., Barker, C.M., et al. A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970–2010. J. R. Soc. Interface, 10(81), 2013, 20120921.
21. Reiner, R.C., Stoddard, S.T., Scott, T.W., Socially structured human movement shapes dengue transmission despite the diffusive effect of mosquito dispersal. Epidemics 6 (2014), 30–36.
22. Roesch, A., Schmidbauer, H., Roesch, M.A., Package WaveletComp. 2014.
23. Sang, S., Chen, B., Wu, H., Yang, Z., Di, B., Wang, L., Tao, X., Liu, X., Liu, Q., Dengue is still an imported disease in China: a case study in Guangzhou. Infect. Genet. Evol. 32 (2015), 178–190.
24. Sang, S., Gu, S., Bi, P., Yang, W., Yang, Z., Xu, L., Yang, J., Liu, X., Jiang, T., Wu, H., et al. Predicting unprecedented dengue outbreak using imported cases and climatic factors in Guangzhou, 2014. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 9(5), 2015, e0003808.
25. Sanna, M., Hsieh, Y.-H., Ascertaining the impact of public rapid transit system on spread of dengue in urban settings. Sci. Total Environ. 598 (2017), 1151–1159.
26. Scott, T.W., Amerasinghe, P.H., Morrison, A.C., Lorenz, L.H., Clark, G.G., Strickman, D., Kittayapong, P., Edman, J.D., Longitudinal studies of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Thailand and Puerto Rico: blood feeding frequency. J. Med. Entomol. 37:1 (2000), 89–101.
27. Shi, B., Liu, J., Zhou, X.-N., Yang, G.-J., Inferring plasmodium vivax transmission networks from tempo-spatial surveillance data. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 8(2), 2014, e2682.
28. Smith, D.L., McKenzie, F.E., Statics and dynamics of malaria infection in Anopheles mosquitoes. Malaria J., 3(1), 2004, 13.
29. Smith, D.L., McKenzie, F.E., Snow, R.W., Hay, S.I., Revisiting the basic reproductive number for malaria and its implications for malaria control. PLoS Biol., 5(3), 2007, e42.
30. Smith, D.L., Perkins, T.A., Reiner, R.C., Barker, C.M., Niu, T., Chaves, L.F., Ellis, A.M., George, D.B., Le Menach, A., Pulliam, J.R., et al. Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 108:4 (2014), 185–197.
31. Stewart-Ibarra, A.M., Muñoz, Á.G., Ryan, S.J., Ayala, E.B., Borbor-Cordova, M.J., Finkelstein, J.L., Mejía, R., Ordoñez, T., Recalde-Coronel, G.C., Rivero, K., Spatiotemporal clustering, climate periodicity, and social-ecological risk factors for dengue during an outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, in 2010. BMC Infect. Dis., 14(1), 2014, 610.
32. Stoddard, S.T., Forshey, B.M., Morrison, A.C., Paz-Soldan, V.A., Vazquez-Prokopec, G.M., Astete, H., Reiner, R.C., Vilcarromero, S., Elder, J.P., Halsey, E.S., et al. House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 110:3 (2013), 994–999.
33. Tang, B., Xiao, Y., Tang, S., Wu, J., Modelling weekly vector control against dengue in the Guangdong province of China. J. Theor. Biol. 410 (2016), 65–76.
34. Tian, H., Huang, S., Zhou, S., Bi, P., Yang, Z., Li, X., Chen, L., Cazelles, B., Yang, J., Luo, L., et al. Surface water areas significantly impacted 2014 dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China. Environ. Res. 150 (2016), 299–305.
35. Wan, X., Liu, J., Cheung, W.K., Tong, T., Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data. PLoS ONE, 9(6), 2014, e100661.
36. WHO. Dengue: Guidelines for Diagnosis, Treatment, Prevention and Control. 2009, Geneva: World Health Organization.
37. WHO. Global Strategy for Dengue Prevention and Control 2012–2020. 2012, Geneva: World Health Organization.
38. Wu, J.-Y., Lun, Z.-R., James, A.A., Chen, X.-G., Dengue fever in mainland China. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 83:3 (2010), 664–671.
39. Xiao, J.-P., He, J.-F., Deng, A.-P., Lin, H.-L., Song, T., Peng, Z.-Q., Wu, X.-C., Liu, T., Li, Z.-H., Rutherford, S., et al. Characterizing a large outbreak of dengue fever in Guangdong Province, China. Infect. Dis. Poverty, 5(1), 2016, 44.
40. Yan, X.-Y., Zhao, C., Fan, Y., Di, Z., Wang, W.-X., Universal predictability of mobility patterns in cities. J. R. Soc. Interface, 11(100), 2014, 20140834.
41. Yang, H., Macoris, M., Galvani, K., Andrighetti, M., Wanderley, D., Assessing the effects of temperature on the population of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue. Epidemiol. Infect. 137:08 (2009), 1188–1202.
42. Zhu, G., Liu, J., Tan, Q., Shi, B., Inferring the spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission from surveillance data in Guangzhou, China. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 10(4), 2016, e0004633.