JOINT ESTIMATION of the TRANSMISSIBILITY and SEVERITY of EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE in REAL TIME

Journal of Biological Systems

Volumn 25, Issue 4, 2017, Pages 587-603

  Asai, Yusuke ^a   Nishiura, Hiroshi ^a  

^a HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (Japan)

Author keywords

Case Fatality Risk; Ebola Virus Disease; Epidemiology; Statistical Model; Transmissibility

Indexed keywords

EID: 85034041844     PISSN: 02183390     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1142/S0218339017400022     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. WHO Ebola Response Team, Ebola virus disease in West Africa - The first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections, N Engl J Med 371:1481-1495, 2014.
2. Kucharski AJ, Camacho A, Checchi F, Waldman R, Grais RF, Cabrol JC, Briand S, Baguelin M, Flasche S, Funk S, Edmunds WJ, Evaluation of the benefits and risks of introducing Ebola community care centers, Sierra Leone, Emerg Infect Dis 21:393-399, 2015.
3. Kucharski AJ, Camacho A, Flasche S, Glover RE, Edmunds WJ, Funk S, Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 112:14366-14371, 2015.
4. Chowell G, Nishiura H, Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): A review, BMC Med 12:196, 2014.
5. Vynnycky E, White RG, An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2010.
6. Wallinga J, Lipsitch M, How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers, Proc R Soc Lond Ser B 274:599-604, 2010.
7. Althaus CL, Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa, PLoS Curr 6:pii-ecurrents.outbreaks. 91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288, 2014. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f 279e7f29e7056095255b288.
8. Towers S, Patterson-Lomba O, Castillo-Chavez C, Temporal variations in the effective reproduction number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak, PLoS Curr 6:pii-ecurrents.outbreaks.9e4c4294ec8ce1adad283172b16bc908, 2014. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.9e4c4294ec8ce1adad283172b16bc908.
9. Hahné S, Donker T, Meijer A, Timen A, van Steenbergen J, Osterhaus A, van der Sande M, Koopmans M, Wallinga J, Coutinho R, Epidemiology and control of influenza A(H1N1)v in the Netherlands: The first 115 cases. Dutch New Influenza A(H1N1)v Investigation Team, Euro Surveill 14(27):pii=19267, 2009.
10. White LF, Wallinga J, Finelli L, Reed C, Riley S, Lipsitch M, Pagano M, Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA, Influenza Other Respir Viruses 3:267-276, 2009.
11. Presanis AM, De Angelis D, The New York City Swine Flu Investigation Team, Hagy A, Reed C, Riley S, Cooper BS, Finelli L, Biedrzycki P, Lipsitch M, The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis, PLoS Med 6:e1000207, 2009. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207.
12. Nishiura H, Case fatality ratio of pandemic influenza, Lancet Infect Dis 10:443-444, 2010.
13. Wong JY, Kelly H, Ip DK, Wu JT, Leung GM, Cowling BJ, Case fatality risk of influenza A (H1N1pdm09): A systematic review, Epidemiology 24:830-841, 2014.
14. Wong JY, Wu P, Nishiura H, Goldstein E, Lau EHY, Yang L, Chuang SK, Tsang T, Peiris JSM, Wu JT, Cowling BJ, The infection fatality risk of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in Hong Kong in 2009, Am J Epidemiol 177:834-840, 2013.
15. The Humanitarian Data Exchange, Number of ebola cases and deaths in affected countries, Available at https://data.humdata.org/dataset/ebola-cases-2014 (Accessed on 10 February 2017).
16. World Health Organization, Ebola situation reports: Archive, Available at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/archive/en/(Accessed on 10 February 2017).
17. WHO Ebola Response Team, West African Ebola epidemic after one year - Slowing but not yet under control, N Engl J Med 372:584-587, 2015.
18. Ejima K, Omori R, Cowling BJ, Aihara K, Nishiura H, The time required to estimate the case fatality ratio of influenza using only the tip of an Iceberg: Joint estimation of the virulence and the transmission potential, Comput Math Methods Med 2012:978901, 2012.
19. Nishiura H, Klinkenberg D, Roberts M, Heesterbeek JAP, Early epidemiological assessment of the virulence of emerging infectious diseases: A case study of an influenza pandemic, PLoS ONE 4:e6852, 2009. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0006852.
20. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Theoretical perspectives on the infectiousness of Ebola virus disease, Theor Biol Med Model 12:1, 2015.
21. Chowell G, Viboud C, Hyman JM, Simonsen L, The Western Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global and exponential and local polynomial growth rates, PLoS Curr Outbreaks 7:ecurrents.outbreaks.8b55f4bad99ac5c5db3663e916803261, 2015.