Focus expansion and stability of the spread parameter estimate of the power law model for dispersal gradients

PeerJ

Volumn 2017, Issue 6, 2017, Pages

  Ojiambo, Peter S ^a   Gent, David H ^b   Mehra, Lucky K ^a   Christie, David ^c   Magarey, Roger ^c  

^a NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Dispersive waves; Epidemic spread; Inverse power law; Long distance dispersal; Parameter stability

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; DISPERSIVE WAVE; EPIDEMIC; FOCUS EXPANSION; INFECTION; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; POWER LAW MODEL; PREVALENCE;

EID: 85020878097     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21678359     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.7717/peerj.3465     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Arauz LF, Neufeld KN, Lloyd AL, Ojiambo PS. 2010. Quantitative models for germination and infection of Pseudoperonospora cubensis in response to temperature and duration of leaf wetness. Phytopathology 100:959-967 DOI 10.1094/PHYTO-100-9-0959
2. Aylor DE. 2003. Spread of plant disease on a continental scale: role of aerial dispersal of pathogens. Ecology 84:1989-1997 DOI 10.1890/01-0619
3. Brooks CP, Antonovics J, Keitt TH. 2008. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity explain disease dynamics in a spatially explicit network model. American Naturalist 172:149-159
4. Brown JK, Hovmøller MS. 2002. Aerial dispersal of pathogens on the global and continental scales and its impact on plant disease. Science 297:537-541 DOI 10.1126/science. 1072678
5. Chatterjee S, Dey PS. 2016. Multiple phase transitions in long-range first-passage percolation on square lattices. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 69:203-256 DOI 10.1002/cpa. 21571
6. Christiano RCS, Scherm H. 2007. Quantitative aspects of the spread of Asian soybean rust in the southeastern United States, 2005 to 2006. Phytopathology 97:1428-1433 DOI 10.1094/PHYTO-97-11-1428
7. Crowl TA, Crist TO, Parmenter RR, Belovsky G, Lugo AE. 2008. The spread of invasive species and infectious disease as drivers of ecosystem change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6:238-246 DOI 10.1890/070151
8. Dunning JB, Stewart Jr DJ, Danielson BJ, Noon BR, Root TL, Lamberson RH, Stevens EE. 1995. Spatially explicit population models: current forms and future uses. Ecological Applications 5:3-11
9. ESRI. 2007. ArcMap 9.2. Redlands: ESRI
10. Estep LK, Sackett KE, Mundt CC. 2014. Influential disease foci in epidemics and underlying mechanisms: a field experiment and simulations. Ecological Applications 24:1854-1862 DOI 10.1890/13-1408. 1
11. Farber DH, Medlock J, Mundt CC. 2017. Local dispersal of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici from isolated source lesions. Plant Pathology 66:28-37 DOI 10.1111/ppa. 12554
12. Ferrandino FJ. 1993. Dispersive epidemic waves: I. Focus expansion within a linear planting. Phytopathology 83:795-802 DOI 10.1094/Phyto-83-795
13. Gisiger T. 2001. Scale invariance in biology: coincidence or footprint of a universal mechanism? Biological Reviews 76:161-209 DOI 10.1017/S 1464793101005607
14. Gregory PH. 1968. Interpreting plant disease dispersal gradients. Annual Review of Phytopathology 6:189-212 DOI 10.1146/annurev.py.06.090168. 001201
15. Hastings A, Cuddington K, Davies KF, Dugaw CJ, Elmendorf S, Freestone A, Harrison S, Holland M, Lambrinos J, Malvadkar U, Melbourne BA, Moore K, Taylor1 C, Thomson D. 2005. The spatial spread of invasions: new developments in theory and evidence. Ecology Letters 8:91-101 DOI 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00687.x
16. Jeger MJ. 1983. Analysing epidemics in time and space. Plant Pathology 32:5-11 DOI 10.1111/j.1365-3059.1983.tb01295.x
17. Madden LV, Hughes G, Van den Bosch F. 2007. The study of plant disease epidemics. St. Paul: APS Press
18. Minogue KP, Fry WE. 1983. Models for the spread of disease: model description. Phytopathology 73:1168-1173 DOI 10.1094/Phyto-73-1168
19. Mundt CC, Sackett KE. 2012. Spatial scaling relationships for spread of disease caused by a wind-dispersed plant pathogen. Ecosphere 3:1-10
20. Mundt CC, Sackett KE, Wallace LD, Cowger C, Dudley JP. 2009a. Long distance dispersal and accelerating waves of disease: empirical relationships. American Naturalist 173:456-466 DOI 10.1086/597220
21. Mundt CC, Sackett KE, Wallace LD, Cowger C, Dudley JP. 2009b. Aerial dispersal and multiple-scale spread of epidemic disease. EcoHealth 6:546-552 DOI 10.1007/s10393-009-0251-z
22. Mundt CC, Wallace LD, Allen TW, Hollier CA, Kemerait RC, Sikors EJ. 2013. Initial epidemic area is strongly associated with the yearly extent of soybean rust spread in North America. Biological Invasions 15:1431-1438 DOI 10.1007/s10530-012-0381-z
23. Murray KA, Retallick RW, Puschendorf R, Skerratt LF, Rosauer D, McCallum HI, Berger L, Speare R, VanDerWal J. 2011. Assessing spatial patterns of disease risk to biodiversity: implications for the management of the amphibian pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Journal of Applied Ecology 48:163-173 DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01890.x
24. Neter J, Wasserman W, Kutner MH. 1983. Applied linear regression models. Howewood: Richard D. Irwin, Inc. Press
25. Neufeld KN, Isard SA, Ojiambo PS. 2013. Relationship between disease severity and escape of Pseudoperonospora cubensis sporangia from a cucumber canopy during downy mildew epidemics. Plant Pathology 62:1366-1377 DOI 10.1111/ppa. 12040
26. Newman MEJ. 2005. Power laws, pareto distributions and Zipf's law. Contemporary Physics 46:323-351 DOI 10.1080/00107510500052444
27. Ojiambo PS, Gent DH, Quesada-Ocampo, Hausbeck MK, Holmes GJ. 2015. Epidemiology and population biology of Pseudoperonospora cubensis: a model system for management of downy mildews. Annual Review of Phytopathology 53:223-246 DOI 10.1146/annurev-phyto-080614-120048
28. Ojiambo PS, Holmes GJ. 2011. Spatiotemporal spread of cucurbit downy mildew in the eastern United States. Phytopathology 101:451-461 DOI 10.1094/PHYTO-09-10-0240
29. Ojiambo PS, Holmes GJ, Britton W, Keever T, Adams ML, Babadoost M, Bost SC, Boyles R, Brooks M, Damicone J, Draper MA, Egel DS, Everts KL, Ferrin DM, Gevens AJ, Gugino BK, Hausbeck MK, Ingram DM, Isakeit T, Keinath AP, Koike ST, Langston D, McGrath MT, Miller SA, Mulrooney R, Rideout S, Roddy E, Seebold KW, Sikora EJ, Thornton A, Wick RL, Wyenandt CA, Zhang S. 2011. Cucurbit downy mildew ipmPIPE: a next generation web-based interactive tool for disease management and extension outreach. Plant Health Progress Epub ahead of print April 11 2011 DOI 10.1094/PHP-2011-0411-01-RV
30. Ojiambo PS, Kang EL. 2013. Modeling spatial frailties in survival analysis of cucurbit downy mildew epidemics. Phytopathology 103:216-227 DOI 10.1094/PHYTO-07-12-0152-R
31. Reynolds AM. 2011. Exponential and power-law contact distributions represent different atmospheric conditions. Phytopathology 101:1465-1470 DOI 10.1094/PHYTO-01-11-0001
32. Riley S. 2007. Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease. Science 316:1298-1301 DOI 10.1126/science. 1134695
33. Scherm H. 1996. On the velocity of epidemic waves in model plant disease epidemics. Ecological Modelling 87:217-222 DOI 10.1016/0304-3800(95)00030-5
34. Schneider D. 2001. The rise of the concept of scale in ecology. BioScience 51:545-553 DOI 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0545:TROTCO]2.0.CO; 2
35. Severns PM, Estep LK, Sackett KE, Mundt CC. 2014. Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread. Journal of Applied Ecology 51:1622-1630 DOI 10.1111/1365-2664. 12326
36. Severns PM, Sackett KE, Mundt CC. 2015. Outbreak propagule pressure influences the landscape spread of a wind-dispersed, epidemic-causing, plant pathogen. Landscape Ecology 30:2111-2119 DOI 10.1007/s10980-015-0234-0
37. Simberloff D. 2009. The role of propagule pressure in biological invasions. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 40:81-102 DOI 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308. 120304
38. Smith VL, Campbell CL, Jenkins SF, Benson DM. 1988. Effects of host density and number of disease foci on epidemics of Southern blight of processing carrot. Phytopathology 78:595-600 DOI 10.1094/Phyto-78-595
39. Urban DL. 2005. Modeling ecological processes across scales. Ecology 86:1996-2006 DOI 10.1890/04-0918
40. Van den Bosch F, Zadoks JC, Metz JAJ. 1988. Focus expansion in plant disease. I. The constant rate of focus expansion. Phytopathology 78:54-58 DOI 10.1094/Phyto-78-54
41. Waggoner PE. 1962. Weather, space, time, and chance of infection. Phytopathology 52:1100-1108
42. Xu X-M, Ridout MS. 1998. Effects of initial epidemic conditions, sporulation rate, and spore dispersal gradient on the spatio-temporal dynamics of plant disease epidemics. Phytopathology 88:1000-1012 DOI 10.1094/PHYTO.1998.88.10. 1000
43. Zadoks JC, Van den Bosch F. 1994. On the spread of plant disease: a theory on foci. Annual Review of Phytopathology 32:503-521 DOI 10.1146/annurev.py.32.090194. 002443