A model for predicting onset of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in winter wheat based on preplanting and weather factors

Phytopathology

Volumn 107, Issue 6, 2017, Pages 635-644

  Mehra, L K ^a   Cowger, C ^b   Ojiambo, P S ^a  

^a NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Model accuracy

Indexed keywords

ASCOMYCETES; HOST PATHOGEN INTERACTION; MEASUREMENT ACCURACY; MICROBIOLOGY; PHYSIOLOGY; PLANT DISEASE; PLANT LEAF; STATISTICAL MODEL; WEATHER; WHEAT;

ASCOMYCOTA; DATA ACCURACY; HOST-PATHOGEN INTERACTIONS; LOGISTIC MODELS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PLANT DISEASES; PLANT LEAVES; TRITICUM; WEATHER;

EID: 85020396855     PISSN: 0031949X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1094/PHYTO-03-16-0133-R     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Allouche, O., Tsoar, A., and Kadmon, R. 2006. Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa, and the true skill statistic (TSS). J. Appl. Ecol. 43:1223-1232.
2. Anonymous. 2011. Eastern United States Septoria Nursery Reports 2010-2011. Online publication. United States Department of Agriculture- Agricultural Research Service. https://www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm? docid=8419&page=8
3. Anonymous. 2015a. Quick Stats. Online publication. United States Department of Agriculture-National Agricultural Statistics Service. https:// quickstats.nass.usda.gov/
4. Anonymous. 2015b. Wheat Data. Online publication. United States Department of Agriculture-Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda. gov/data-products/wheat-data.aspx
5. Bhathal, J. S., Loughman, R., and Speijers, J. 2003. Yield reduction in wheat in relation to leaf disease from yellow (tan) spot and septoria nodorum blotch. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 109:435-443.
6. Cook, R. J. 1977. Effect of timed fungicide sprays on yield of winter wheat in relation to Septoria infection periods. Plant Pathol. 26:30-34.
7. Cowger, C., and Murphy, J. P. 2007. Artificial inoculation of wheat for selecting resistance to Stagonospora nodorum blotch. Plant Dis. 91: 539-545.
8. Djurle, A., Ekbom, B., and Yuen, J. E. 1996. The relationship of leaf wetness duration and disease progress of glume blotch, caused by Stagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat to standard weather data. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 102:9-20.
9. Djurle, A., and Yuen, J. 1991. A simulation model for Septoria nodorum in winter wheat. Agric. Syst. 37:193-218.
10. Eyal, Z. 1999. The septoria tritici and stagonospora nodorum blotch diseases of wheat. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 105:629-641.
11. Eyal, Z., Scharen, A. L., Prescott, J. M., and van Ginkel, M. 1987. The Septoria Diseases of Wheat: Concepts and Methods of Disease Management. CIMMYT, D.F., Mexico.
12. Hansen, J. G., Secher, B. J. M., Jørgensen, L. N., and Welling, B. 1994. Thresholds for control of Septoria spp. in winter wheat based on precipitation and growth stage. Plant Pathol. 43:183-189.
13. Holmes, S. J. I., and Colhoun, J. 1975. Straw-borne inoculum of Septoria nodorum and S. tritici in relation to incidence of disease on wheat plants. Plant Pathol. 24:63-66.
14. Jeger, M. J., Griffiths, E., and Jones, D. G. 1981. Influence of environmental conditions on spore dispersal and infection by Septoria nodorum. Ann. Appl. Biol. 99:29-34.
15. King, J. E., Cook, R. J., and Melville, S. C. 1983. A review of Septoria diseases of wheat and barley. Ann. Appl. Biol. 103:345-373.
16. Kirchner, J. W. 2006. Getting the right answers for the right reasons: Linking measurements, analyses, and models to advance the science of hydrology. Water Resour. Res. 42:W03S04.
17. Krupinsky, J. M., Tanaka, D. L., Merrill, S. D., Liebig, M. A., Lares, M. T., and Hanson, J. D. 2007. Crop sequence effects on leaf spot diseases of notill spring wheat. Agron. J. 99:912-920.
18. McKendry, A. L., Henke, G. E., and Finney, P. L. 1995. Effects of Septoria leaf blotch on soft red winter wheat milling and baking quality. Cereal Chem. 72:142-146.
19. McPherson, J. M., Jetz, W., and Rogers, D. J. 2004. The effects of species' range sizes on the accuracy of distribution models: Ecological phenomenon or statistical artefact? J. Appl. Ecol. 41:811-823.
20. Mehra, L. K., Cowger, C., Gross, K., and Ojiambo, P. S. 2016. Predicting preplanting risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in winter wheat using machine learning models. Front. Plant Sci. 7:390.
21. Mehra, L. K., Cowger, C., Weisz, R., and Ojiambo, P. S. 2015. Quantifying the effects of wheat residue on severity of Stagonospora nodorum Blotch and yield in winter wheat. Phytopathology 105:1417-1426.
22. Milus, E. A., and Chalkley, D. B. 1997. Effect of previous crop, seedborne inoculum, and fungicides on development of Stagonospora blotch. Plant Dis. 81:1279-1283.
23. Monserud, R. A., and Leemans, R. 1992. Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecol. Modell. 62:275-293.
24. Nelson, B. D. 2001. Variable reduction for modeling using PROC VARCLUS. Paper No. 261-26 in: Proc. 26 Annu. SAS Users Group Int. Conf. SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC. http://www2.sas.com/proceedings/sugi26/p261-26.pdf
25. Pietravalle, S., Shaw, M. W., Parker, S. R., and Van Den Bosch, F. 2003. Modeling of relationships between weather and Septoria tritici epidemics on winter wheat diseases: A critical approach. Phytopathology 93:1329-1339.
26. Ramsey, F. L., and Schafer, D. W. 1997. The Statistical Sleuth. Duxbury Thomson Learning, Pacific Grove, CA.
27. Ruske, R. E., Gooding, M. J., and Jones, S. A. 2003. The effects of adding picoxystrobin, azoxystrobin and nitrogen to a triazole programme on disease control, flag leaf senescence, yield and grain quality of winter wheat. Crop Prot. 22:975-987.
28. Schoeny, A., Jumel, S., Rouault, F., Le May, C., and Tivoli, B. 2007. Assessment of airborne primary inoculum availability and modelling of disease onset of ascochyta blight in field peas. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 119:87-97.
29. Shah, D., Bergstrom, G. C., and Ueng, P. P. 1995. Initiation of Septoria nodorum blotch epidemics in winter wheat by seedborne Stagonospora nodorum. Phytopathology 85:452-457.
30. Shane, W. W., and Teng, P. S. 1985. Evaluation and implementation of the Cercospora leaf spot prediction model. Sugar Beet Res. Ext. Rep. 15:129-138.
31. Shi, G., Zhang, Z., Friesen, T. L., Bansal, U., Cloutier, S., Wicker, T., Rasmussen, J. B., and Faris, J. D. 2016. Marker development, saturation mapping, and high-resolution mapping of the Septoria nodorum blotch susceptibility gene Snn3-B1 in wheat. Mol. Genet. Genomics 291:107-119.
32. Solomon, P. S., Lowe, R. G. T., Tan, K.-C., Waters, O. D. C., and Oliver, R. P. 2006. Stagonospora nodorum: Cause of stagonospora nodorum blotch of wheat. Mol. Plant Pathol. 7:147-156.
33. Stover, R. W., Francl, L. J., and Jordahl, J. G. 1996. Tillage and fungicide management of foliar diseases in a spring wheat monoculture. J. Prod. Agric. 9:261-265.
34. te Beest, D. E., Shaw, M. W., Pietravalle, S., and Van Den Bosch, F. 2009. A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 124:413-425.
35. Tyldesley, J. B., and Thompson, N. 1980. Forecasting Septoria nodorum on winter wheat in England and Wales. Plant Pathol. 29:9-20.
36. van den Bosch, F., Paveley, N., Shaw, M., Hobbelen, P., and Oliver, R. 2011. The dose rate debate: Does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose? Plant Pathol. 60:597-606.
37. Vanderplank, J. E. 1984. Disease Resistance in Plants, 2nd ed. Academic Press, New York.
38. Vaughan, I. P., and Ormerod, S. J. 2005. The continuing challenges of testing species distribution models. J. Appl. Ecol. 42:720-730.
39. Weisz, R. 2013. Small Grain Production Guide. Publ. No. AG-580. North Carolina Cooperative Extension Service, Raleigh, NC.
40. Weisz, R., and Cowger, C. 2014. 2014 Wheat variety performance & recommendations. SmartGrains - The Small Grains Fact Sheet, No. 37. Online publication. NC State University. http://www.smallgrains.ncsu.edu/-Misc/- VarietySelection.pdf
41. Weisz, R., Cowger, C., Ambrose, G., and Gardner, A. 2011. Multiple mid- Atlantic field experiments show no economic benefit to fungicide application when fungal disease is absent in winter wheat. Phytopathology 101: 323-333.
42. Wolf, P. F. J., and Verreet, J. A. 2005. Factors affecting the onset of Cercospora leaf spot epidemics in sugar beet and establishment of disease-monitoring thresholds. Phytopathology 95:269-274.
43. Wollenhaupt, N. C., and Pingry, J. 1991. Estimating Residue using the Linetransect Method. Coop. Ext. Publ. No. A3553. University of Wisconsin, Madison.
44. Zadoks, J. C., Chang, T. T., and Konzak, C. F. 1974. A decimal code for the growth stages of cereals. Weed Res. 14:415-421.
45. Zearfoss, A. D., Cowger, C., and Ojiambo, P. S. 2011. A degree-day model for latent period of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in winter wheat. Plant Dis. 95:561-567.