Species climatic niche explains drought-induced die-off in a Mediterranean woody community

Ecosphere

Volumn 8, Issue 5, 2017, Pages

  Sapes, Gerard ^a,b,c   Serra Diaz, Josep M ^d   Lloret, Francisco ^b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

^b CREAF   (Spain)

^c UNIVERSITAT AUTÒNOMA DE BARCELONA   (Spain)

^d HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climatic niche; Correlative niche models; Defoliation; Die off; Drought responses; Extreme drought event; Maxent; Mediterranean ecosystems; Niche based models; Shrubland; Species distribution models

Indexed keywords

EID: 85020009514     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21508925     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1833     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Allen, C. D., et al. 2010. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 660-684.
2. Barve, N., V. Barve, A. Jimenez-Valverde, A. Lira-Noriega, S. P. Maher, A. T. Peterson, J. Soberon, and F. Villalobos. 2011. The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling. Ecological Modelling 222: 1810-1819.
3. Boehmer, H. J., H. H. Wagner, J. D. Jacobi, G. C. Gerrish, and D. Mueller-Dombois. 2013. Rebuilding after collapse: Evidence for long-term cohort dynamics in the native Hawaiian rain forest. Journal of Vegetation Science 24: 639-650.
4. Braun-Blanquet, J., and O. Bolffos. 1957. The plant communities of the Central Ebro Basin and their dynamics. Anales de la Estacition Experimental de Aula Dei 5: 1-266.
5. Buckley, L., and R. Huey. 2016. How extreme temperatures impact organisms and the evolution of their thermal tolerance. Integrative and Comparative Biology 56: 98-109.
6. Bussotti, F., F. Ferrini, M. Pollastrini, and A. Fini. 2014. The challenge of Mediterranean sclerophyllous vegetation under climate change: From acclimation to adaptation. Environmental and Experimental Botany 103: 80-98.
7. Carnicer, J., M. Coll, M. Ninyerola, X. Pons, G. Sanchez, and J. Peñuelas. 2011. Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 108: 1474-1478.
8. Del Cacho, M., and F. Lloret. 2012. Resilience of Mediterranean shrubland to a severe drought episode: The role of seed bank and seedling emergence. Plant Biology 14: 458-466.
9. D'Odorico, P., A. Bhattachan, K. F. Davis, S. Ravi, and C. W. Runyan. 2013. Global desertification: Drivers and feedbacks. Advances in Water Resources 51: 326-344.
10. Eichhorn, J., et al. 2016: Part IV: Visual assessment of crown condition and damaging agents. Page 54 in UNECE ICP Forests Programme Coordinating Centre, editor. Manual on methods and criteria for harmonized sampling, assessment, monitoring and analysis of the effects of air pollution on forests. Thunen Institute of Forest Ecosystems, Eberswalde, Germany.
11. Elith, J., M. Kearney, and S. Phillips. 2010. The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 1: 330-342.
12. Elith, J., et al. 2006. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29: 129-151.
13. Franklin, J. 2010. Mapping species distributions: Spatial inference and prediction. Volume 101. Pages 1384-1386. Cambridge University Press, New York, New York, USA.
14. Futuyma, D., and G. Moreno. 1988. The evolution of ecological specialization. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 19: 207-233.
15. Galiano, L., J. Martinez-Vilalta, and F. Lloret. 2011. Carbon reserves and canopy defoliation determine the recovery of Scots pine 4 yr after a drought episode. New Phytologist 190: 750-759.
16. Gauthier, M.-M., and D. F. Jacobs. 2011. Walnut (Juglans spp.) ecophysiology in response to environmental stresses and potential acclimation to climate change. Annals of Forest Science 68: 1277-1290.
17. Greenwood, S., et al. 2017. Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity, lower wood density and higher specific leaf area. Ecology Letters 20: 539-553.
18. Hijmans, R. J., S. E. Cameron, J. L. Parra, P. G. Jones, and A. Jarvis. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965-1978.
19. Hutchinson, G. 1957. Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology 22: 415-427.
20. IPCC. 2013. Summary for policymakers. Pages 1-28 in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, New York, USA.
21. Kent, M. 2011. Vegetation description and data analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Oxford, UK.
22. Levins, R. 1968. Evolution in changing environments: Some theoretical explorations. Monographs in population biology. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
23. Lloret, F., E. G. de la Riva, I. M. Perez-Ramos, T. Marañ-on, S. Saura-Mas, R. D-iaz-Delgado, and R. Villar. 2016. Climatic events inducing die-off in Mediterranean shrublands: Are species' responses related to their functional traits? Oecologia 180: 961-973.
24. Lloret, F., A. Escudero, J. M. Iriondo, J. Martinez- Vilalta, and F. Valladares. 2012. Extreme climatic events and vegetation: The role of stabilizing processes. Global Change Biology 18: 797-805.
25. Lloret, F., D. Siscart, and C. Dalmases. 2004. Canopy recovery after drought dieback in holm-oak Mediterranean forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Global Change Biology 10: 2092-2099.
26. MacArthur, R. 1984. Geographical ecology. Patterns in the distribution of species. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
27. Marcer, A., J. Pino, X. Pons, and L. Brotons. 2012. Modelling invasive alien species distributions from digital biodiversity atlases. Model upscaling as a means of reconciling data at different scales. Diversity and Distributions 18: 1177-1189.
28. Mardia, K. V., J. T. Kent, and J. M. Bibby. 1979. Multivariate analysis. Academic Press, London, UK and San Diego, California, USA.
29. McCulloh, K., D. M. Johnson, F. C. Meinzer, S. L. Voelker, B. Lachenbruch, and J.-C. Domec. 2012. Hydraulic architecture of two species differing in wood density: Opposing strategies in co-occurring tropical pioneer trees. Plant Cell and Environment 35: 116-125.
30. McDowell, N. G. 2011. Mechanisms linking drought, hydraulics, carbon metabolism, and vegetation mortality. Plant Physiology 155: 1051-1059.
31. Merow, C., M. J. Smith, and J. Silander. 2013. A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species' distributions: What it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography 36: 1058-1069.
32. Muller-Landau, H. C. 2010. The tolerance-fecundity trade-off and the maintenance of diversity in seed size. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107: 4242-4247.
33. Nakajima, H., A. Kume, M. Ishida, T. Ohmiya, and N. Mizoue. 2011. Evaluation of estimates of crown condition in forest monitoring: Comparison between visual estimation and automated crown image analysis. Annals of Forest Science 68: 1333-1340.
34. Pearson, R. G., and T. P. Dawson. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: Are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography 12: 361-371.
35. Peterson, A. T., M. Papes, and M. Eaton. 2007. Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: A comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography 30: 550-560.
36. Phillips, S. J., R. P. Anderson, and R. E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190: 231-259.
37. Pook, E. 1985. Canopy dynamics of Eucalyptus maculata Hook. 3. Effects of drought. Australian Journal of Botany 33: 65-79.
38. Pueyo, Y., and C. L. Alados. 2007. Effects of fragmentation, abiotic factors and land use on vegetation recovery in a semi-arid Mediterranean area. Basic and Applied Ecology 8: 158-170.
39. Rowland, L., Y. Malhi, J. E. Silva-Espejo, F. Farfan- Amezquita, K. Halladay, C. E. Doughty, P. Meir, and O. L. Phillips. 2014. The sensitivity of wood production to seasonal and interannual variations in climate in a lowland Amazonian rainforest. Oecologia 174: 295-306.
40. Ruiz-Labourdette, D., M. F. Schmitz, and F. D. Pineda. 2013. Changes in tree species composition in Mediterranean mountains under climate change: Indicators for conservation planning. Ecological Indicators 24: 310-323.
41. Serra-Diaz, J. M., J. Franklin, M. Ninyerola, F. W. Davis, A. D. Syphard, H. M. Regan, and M. Ikegami. 2014. Bioclimatic velocity: The pace of species exposure to climate change. Diversity and Distributions 20: 169-180.
42. Thuiller, W., et al. 2014. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics? Ecography 37: 1155-1166.
43. Trifilo, P., P. M. Barbera, F. Raimondo, A. Nardini, and M. A. Lo Gullo. 2014. Coping with droughtinduced xylem cavitation: Coordination of embolism repair and ionic effects in three Mediterranean evergreens. Tree Physiology 34: 109-122.
44. VanDerWal, J., L. P. Shoo, C. N. Johnson, and S. E. Williams. 2009. Abundance and the environmental niche: Environmental suitability estimated from niche models predicts the upper limit of local abundance. American Naturalist 174: 282-291.
45. Venturas, M. D., E. D. Mackinnon, H. L. Dario, A. L. Jacobsen, R. Brandon Pratt, and S. L. Davis. 2016. Chaparral shrub hydraulic traits, size, and life history types relate to species mortality during California's historic drought of 2014. Plant Cell and Environment 38: 1060-1068.
46. Vergeer, P., R. Rengelink, A. Copal, and N. J. Ouborg. 2003. The interacting effects of genetic variation, habitat quality and population size on performance of Succisa pratensis. Journal of Ecology 91: 18-26.
47. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., S. Begueria, and J. I. Lopez- Moreno. 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate 23: 1696-1718.
48. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., A. Zouber, T. Lasanta, and Y. Puyeto. 2012. Dryness is accelerating degradation of vulnerable shrublands in semiarid Mediterranean environments. Ecological Monographs 82: 407-428.
49. Zimmermann, N. E., N. G. Yoccoz, T. C. Edwards, E. S. Meier, W. Thuiller, A. Guisan, D. R. Schmatz, and P. B. Pearman. 2009. Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 106: 19723-19728.