Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations – A new generation of urban planning tools

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 550, Issue , 2017, Pages 355-367

  Löwe, Roland ^a,d   Urich, Christian ^b,d   Sto Domingo, Nina ^c   Mark, Ole ^c   Deletic, Ana ^b   Arnbjerg Nielsen, Karsten ^a,d  

^a TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF DENMARK   (Denmark)

^b MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c DHI   (Denmark)

^d Cooperative Research Centre ^*  (Australia)

Author keywords

Agent based modelling; Climate change; Flood risk; Hydrodynamic modelling; Robust decision making; Urban development

Indexed keywords

AUTONOMOUS AGENTS; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTATIONAL METHODS; DECISION MAKING; FLUID DYNAMICS; HYDRODYNAMICS; INVESTMENTS; PLANNING; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; URBAN GROWTH; URBAN PLANNING; WATER MANAGEMENT;

AGENT-BASED MODELLING; FLOOD RISKS; HYDRODYNAMIC MODELLING; ROBUST DECISIONS; URBAN DEVELOPMENT;

FLOODS;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; ASSESSMENT METHOD; CLIMATE CHANGE; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL RISK; FLOOD; HYDRODYNAMICS; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; SIMULATION; STRATEGIC APPROACH; URBAN AREA; URBAN DEVELOPMENT; URBAN PLANNING; URBAN POLICY; WATER MANAGEMENT;

AUSTRALIA; MELBOURNE; VICTORIA [AUSTRALIA];

EID: 85019631030     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.009     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Aerts, J.C.J.H., Botzen, W.J.W., Emanuel, K., Lin, N., Moel, H.De., Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities. Science 344 (2014), 473–475.
2. Apel, H., Merz, B., Thieken, A.H., Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int. J. River Basin Manage. 6 (2008), 149–162.
3. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design. Urban Water J. 9 (2012), 57–65.
4. Australia Institution of Engineers, 1987. Australian Rainfall and Runoff - A Guide to Flood Estimation, Revised Edition. Australia.
5. Bach, P.M., Mccarthy, D.T., Deletic, A., Can we model the implementation of water sensitive urban design in evolving cities?. Water Sci. Technol., 71, 2015, 149.
6. Bach, P.M., McCarthy, D.T., Urich, C., Sitzenfrei, R., Kleidorfer, M., Rauch, W., Deletic, A., A planning algorithm for quantifying decentralised water management opportunities in urban environments. Water Sci. Technol. 68 (2013), 1857–1865.
7. Barreira González, P., Aguilera-Benavente, F., Gómez-Delgado, M., Partial validation of cellular automata based model simulations of urban growth: an approach to assessing factor influence using spatial methods. Environ. Modell. Softw. 69 (2015), 77–89.
8. Batty, M., Urban Modeling. Thrift, N., Kitchin, R., (eds.) International Encyclopedia of Human Geography, 2009, Elsevier, Oxford, United Kingdom, 51–58.
9. Borgomeo, E., Hall, J.W., Fung, F., Watts, G., Colquhoun, K., Lambert, C., Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties. Water Resour. Res. 50 (2014), 6850–6873.
10. CH2M, 2015. Flood Modeller - User Manual.
11. Cohen, B., Urban growth in developing countries: a review of current trends and a caution regarding existing forecasts. World Dev. 32 (2004), 23–51.
12. Crooks, A., Castle, C., Batty, M., Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 32 (2008), 417–430.
13. CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, 2015. Climate Change in Australia Technical Report. Australia.
14. DHI, 2013. MIKE FLOOD – 1D–2D Modelling – User Manual.
15. Ehret, U., Götzinger, J., Bárdossy, A., Pegram, G., Radar based flood forecasting in small catchments, exemplified by the Goldersbach catchment, Germany. Int. J. River Basin Manage. 6 (2008), 323–329.
16. ESRI, 2012. ArcGIS Desktop: Release 10.
17. French, R., Jones, M., Design rainfall temporal patterns in Australian Rainfall and Runoff: durations exceeding one hour ∗. Australian J. Water Resour. 16 (2012), 21–28.
18. GDAL Development Team, 2014. GDAL - Geospatial Data Abstraction Library, Version 1.11.0.
19. Gersonius, B., Nasruddin, F., Ashley, R., Jeuken, A., Pathirana, A., Zevenbergen, C., Developing the evidence base for mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change. Water Res. 46 (2012), 6824–6835.
20. Ghimire, B., Chen, A.S., Guidolin, M., Keedwell, E.C., Djordjević, S., Savić, D.a., Formulation of a fast 2D urban pluvial flood model using a cellular automata approach. J. Hydroinf., 15, 2013, 676.
21. Granger, C.W.J., Jeon, Y., Long-term forecasting and evaluation. Int. J. Forecast. 23 (2007), 539–551.
22. Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M., Brázdil, R., Claps, P., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T.R., Kriaučūnienė, J., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Lang, M., Llasat, M.C., Macdonald, N., McIntyre, N., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Neuhold, C., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R.A.P., Plavcová, L., Rogger, M., Salinas, J.L., Sauquet, E., Schär, C., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Blöschl, G., Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (2014), 2735–2772.
23. Handmer, J., Read, C., Percovich, O., Reed, C., Percovich, O., 2003. Disaster Loss Assessment Guidelines, Assessment. Dickson, Australia.
24. Henonin, J., Hongtao, M., Zheng-Yu, Y., Hartnack, J., Havnø, K., Gourbesville, P., Mark, O., Citywide multi-grid urban flood modelling: the July 2012 flood in Beijing. Urban Water J. 12 (2015), 52–66.
25. Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A.T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R.J., Tol, R.S.J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., Levermann, A., Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 111 (2014), 3292–3297.
26. Hoymann, J., Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River Basin. Environ. Plann. B: Plann. Des. 37 (2010), 911–928.
27. Huong, H.T.L., Pathirana, A., Urbanization and climate change impacts on future urban flood risk in Can Tho city, Vietnam. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17 (2013), 379–394.
28. Kleijnen, J.P.C., Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments. 2nd ed., 2015, Springer, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
29. Kwakkel, J., Haasnoot, M., Walker, W.E., Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world. Climatic Change 132 (2015), 373–386.
30. Lienert, J., Scholten, L., Egger, C., Maurer, M., Structured decision-making for sustainable water infrastructure planning and four future scenarios. EURO J. Decis. Processes 3 (2015), 107–140.
31. Madsen, H., Lawrence, D., Lang, M., Martinkova, M., Kjeldsen, T.R., Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe. J. Hydrol. 519 (2014), 3634–3650.
32. Malik, A., Crooks, A., Root, H., Swartz, M., Exploring creativity and urban development with agent-based modeling. J. Artif. Soc. Social Simul. 18 (2015), 1–19.
33. Matthews, R.B., Gilbert, N.G., Roach, A., Polhill, J.G., Gotts, N.M., Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications. Landscape Ecol. 22 (2007), 1447–1459.
34. Mendelsohn, R., 2006. Critique of the Stern Report, A. Regulation 42–46.
35. Meneses, E.J., Löwe, R., Brødbæk, D., Courdent, V., Petersen, S.O., 2015. SURFF – Operational Flood Warnings for Cities Based on Hydraulic 1D–2D Simulations and NWP. In: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling (UDM). Québec, Canada.
36. Merz, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Baldi, M., Becker, A., Bichet, A., Blöschl, G., Bouwer, L.M., Brauer, A., Cioffi, F., Delgado, J.M., Gocht, M., Guzzetti, F., Harrigan, S., Hirschboeck, K., Kilsby, C., Kron, W., Kwon, H.H., Lall, U., Merz, R., Nissen, K., Salvatti, P., Swierczynski, T., Ulbrich, U., Viglione, A., Ward, P.J., Weiler, M., Wilhelm, B., Nied, M., Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management. Natural Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 14 (2014), 1921–1942.
37. Merz, B., Hall, J., Disse, M., Schumann, A., Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world. Natural Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10 (2010), 509–527.
38. Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Lall, U., Viglione, A., Bloeschl, G., Charting unknown water - on the role of surprise in flood risk assessment and management. Water Resour. Res. 51 (2015), 6399–6416.
39. Mikovits, C., Rauch, W., Kleidorfer, M., A dynamic urban development model designed for purposes in the field of urban water management. J. Hydroinf. 17 (2015), 390–403.
40. Muis, S., Güneralp, B., Jongman, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Ward, P.J., Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: a probabilistic analysis using global data. Science Total Environ. 538 (2015), 445–457.
41. Muller, M., Adapting to climate change: water management for urban resilience. Environ. Urbanization 19 (2007), 99–113.
42. Olsen, A.S., Zhou, Q., Linde, J.J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Comparing methods of calculating expected annual damage in urban pluvial flood risk assessments. Water 7 (2015), 255–270.
43. Olsen, J.R., Lambert, J.H., Haimes, Y.Y., Risk of extreme events under nonstationary conditions. Risk Anal. 18 (1998), 497–510.
44. Poelmans, L., Rompaey, A.Van., Ntegeka, V., Willems, P., The relative impact of climate change and urban expansion on peak flows: a case study in central Belgium. Hydrol. Process. 25 (2011), 2846–2858.
45. Poelmans, L., Van Rompaey, A., Complexity and performance of urban expansion models. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 34 (2010), 17–27.
46. Prudhomme, C., Wilby, R.L., Crooks, S., Kay, A.L., Reynard, N.S., Scenario-neutral approach to climate change impact studies: application to flood risk. J. Hydrol. 390 (2010), 198–209.
47. Russo, B., Sunyer, D., Velasco, M., Djordjević, S., Analysis of extreme flooding events through a calibrated 1D/2D coupled model: the case of Barcelona (Spain). J. Hydroinf. 17 (2015), 473–492.
48. Sekovski, I., Armaroli, C., Calabrese, L., Mancini, F., Stecchi, F., Perini, L., Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 15 (2015), 2331–2346.
49. Semadeni-Davies, A., Hernebring, C., Svensson, G., Gustafsson, L.G., The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Combined sewer system. J. Hydrol. 350 (2008), 100–113.
50. Shao, Q., Weatherley, D., Huang, L., Baumgartl, T., Run, C.A., A cellular automata model for simulating surface runoff at different scales. J. Hydrol. 529 (2015), 816–829.
51. Stedinger, J.R., Expected Probability and Annual Damage Estimators. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 123 (1997), 125–135.
52. Stern, N., The Economics of Climate Change - The Stern Review. 1st ed., 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
53. Stern, N., Current climate models are grossly misleading. Nature 530 (2016), 407–409.
54. Sun, Y., Solomon, S., Dai, A., Portmann, R.W., How often will it rain?. J. Clim. 20 (2007), 4801–4818.
55. Sunyer, M.A., Rosbjerg, D., Madsen, H., Luchner, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods to estimate changes in hourly extreme precipitation using RCM projections from ENSEMBLES. Int. J. Climatol., 2014.
56. The State of Victoria - Department of Transport Planning and Local Infrastructure, 2014. Plan Melbourne. Melbourne, Australia.
57. Urich, C., Rauch, W., Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties. Water Res. 66C (2014), 374–389.
58. USACE, 1989. EAD – Expected Annual Flood Damage Computation – User's Manual.
59. USACE, Guidelines for risk and uncertainty analysis in water resources planning. 1992, Fort Belvoir, VA, United States.
60. Vermeer, D., Economic and Urban Growth Models. 2014, Exeter, United Kingdom.
61. Viavattene, C., Ellis, J.B., The management of urban surface water flood risks: SUDS performance in flood reduction from extreme events. Water Sci. Technol. 67 (2013), 99–108.
62. Waddell, P., UrbanSim - Modeling urban development for land use, transportation, and environmental planning. J. Am. Plann. Assoc. 68 (2002), 297–314.
63. Walker, W.E., Lempert, R., Kwakkel, J., 2013. Deep Uncertainty. Encyclopedia of Operational Research and Management Science.
64. Walker, W.E., Rahman, S.A., Cave, J., Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 128 (2001), 282–289.
65. Wolfs, V., Villazon, M.F., Willems, P., Development of a semi-automated model identification and calibration tool for conceptual modelling of sewer systems. Water Sci. Technol. 68 (2013), 167–175.
66. Wong, V., An Investigation Into Infrastructure System Response to Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Scotchman's Creek Catchment. 2014, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
67. Zhou, Q., Mikkelsen, P.S., Halsnæs, K., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits. J. Hydrol. 414–415 (2012), 539–549.
68. Zhu, T., Lund, J.R., Jenkins, M.W., Marques, G.F., Ritzema, R.S., Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection. Water Resour. Res. 43 (2007), 1–11.