메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 31, Issue , 2017, Pages S41-S50

Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: Case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

Author keywords

HIV estimates; HIV incidence rate; Mathematical model validation; models projections; paediatric estimates; Spectrum model; Zimbabwe

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; ARTICLE; CASE STUDY; CAUSE OF DEATH; CHILD; CLINICAL OBSERVATION; COHORT ANALYSIS; CONTROLLED STUDY; DEMOGRAPHY; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; EMPIRICAL RESEARCH; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; FEMALE; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTED PATIENT; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS PREVALENCE; INCIDENCE; INFANT; INTERMETHOD COMPARISON; MALE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MIDDLE AGED; MIGRANT; MIGRATION; MORTALITY RATE; NEWBORN; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SIMULATION; VALIDATION STUDY; YOUNG ADULT; ZIMBABWE; ZIMBABWEAN; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MONITORING; PREVALENCE; SOFTWARE; STATISTICAL MODEL;

EID: 85015760198     PISSN: 02699370     EISSN: 14735571     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001418     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (10)

References (39)
  • 1
    • 84876942764 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The 2009 HIV and AIDS estimates and projections: Methods, tools and analyses
    • Ghys PD, Garnett GP. The 2009 HIV and AIDS estimates and projections: methods, tools and analyses. Sex Transm Infect 2010; 86: ii1-ii2.
    • (2010) Sex Transm Infect , vol.86 , pp. ii1-ii2
    • Ghys, P.D.1    Garnett, G.P.2
  • 2
    • 0029395941 scopus 로고
    • Age and religion selection biases in HIV-1 prevalence data from antenatal clinics in Manicaland, Zimbabwe
    • Gregson S, Zhuwau T, Anderson RM, Chimbadzwa T, Chiwandiwa SK. Age and religion selection biases in HIV-1 prevalence data from antenatal clinics in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Cent Afr J Med 1995; 41: 339-346.
    • (1995) Cent Afr J Med , vol.41 , pp. 339-346
    • Gregson, S.1    Zhuwau, T.2    Anderson, R.M.3    Chimbadzwa, T.4    Chiwandiwa, S.K.5
  • 4
    • 84894080429 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does the Spectrum model accurately predict trends in adult mortality? Evaluation of model estimates using empirical data from a rural HIV community cohort study in north-western Tanzania
    • Michael D, Kanjala C, Calvert C, Pretorius C, Wringe A, Todd J,, et al. Does the Spectrum model accurately predict trends in adult mortality? Evaluation of model estimates using empirical data from a rural HIV community cohort study in North-Western Tanzania. Glob Health Action 2014; 7: 1-8.
    • (2014) Glob Health Action , vol.7 , pp. 1-8
    • Michael, D.1    Kanjala, C.2    Calvert, C.3    Pretorius, C.4    Wringe, A.5    Todd, J.6
  • 5
    • 79953234686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Estimation and Projection Package and Spectrum for Jamaica?s national HIV estimates and targets
    • Duncan J, Jarrett SB, Harvey K. Using Estimation and Projection Package and Spectrum for Jamaica?s national HIV estimates and targets. Sex Transm Infect 2010; 86: I43-I47.
    • (2010) Sex Transm Infect , vol.86 , pp. I43-I47
    • Duncan, J.1    Jarrett, S.B.2    Harvey, K.3
  • 6
    • 79952333099 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: A systematic comparison of multiple methods
    • Kim AA, Hallett T, Stover J, Gouws E, Musinguzi J, Mureithi PK,, et al. Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda: a systematic comparison of multiple methods. PloS One 2011; 6: e17535.
    • (2011) PloS One , vol.6 , pp. e17535
    • Kim, A.A.1    Hallett, T.2    Stover, J.3    Gouws, E.4    Musinguzi, J.5    Mureithi, P.K.6
  • 7
    • 84941762006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: A validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era
    • Eaton JW, Bacaer N, Bershteyn A, Cambiano V, Cori A, Dorrington RE,, et al. Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era. Lancet Glob Health 2015; 3: e598-e608.
    • (2015) Lancet Glob Health , vol.3 , pp. e598-e608
    • Eaton, J.W.1    Bacaer, N.2    Bershteyn, A.3    Cambiano, V.4    Cori, A.5    Dorrington, R.E.6
  • 8
    • 84884485861 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The burden of HIV: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
    • Ortblad KF, Lozano R, Murray CJ. The burden of HIV: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. AIDS 2013; 27: 2003-2017.
    • (2013) AIDS , vol.27 , pp. 2003-2017
    • Ortblad, K.F.1    Lozano, R.2    Murray, C.J.3
  • 10
    • 84978901278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
    • GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators
    • Wang HD, Wolock TM, Carter A, Nguyen G, Kyu HH, Gakidou E,, et al., GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3: e361-e387.
    • (2016) Lancet HIV , vol.3 , pp. e361-e387
    • Wang, H.D.1    Wolock, T.M.2    Carter, A.3    Nguyen, G.4    Kyu, H.H.5    Gakidou, E.6
  • 11
    • 84992316922 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model
    • Mahy M, Penazzato M, Ciaranello A, Mofenson L, Yianoutsos CT, Davies M-A,, et al. Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model. AIDS 2017; 31 (Suppl 1): S13-S22.
    • (2017) AIDS , vol.31 , pp. S13-S22
    • Mahy, M.1    Penazzato, M.2    Ciaranello, A.3    Mofenson, L.4    Yianoutsos, C.T.5    Davies, M.-A.6
  • 12
    • 84904409817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention through prioritisation of the people and places in greatest need: A modelling study
    • Anderson SJ, Cherutich P, Kilonzo N, Cremin I, Fecht D, Kimanga D,, et al. Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention through prioritisation of the people and places in greatest need: a modelling study. Lancet 2014; 384: 249-256.
    • (2014) Lancet , vol.384 , pp. 249-256
    • Anderson, S.J.1    Cherutich, P.2    Kilonzo, N.3    Cremin, I.4    Fecht, D.5    Kimanga, D.6
  • 14
    • 84916896972 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Redefining the HIV epidemic in Nigeria: From national to state level
    • Mahy M, Nzima M, Ogungbemi MK, Ogbang DA, Morka MC, Stover J. Redefining the HIV epidemic in Nigeria: from national to state level. AIDS 2014; 28: S461-S467.
    • (2014) AIDS , vol.28 , pp. S461-S467
    • Mahy, M.1    Nzima, M.2    Ogungbemi, M.K.3    Ogbang, D.A.4    Morka, M.C.5    Stover, J.6
  • 16
    • 85016047000 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pepfar 3.0: Controlling the epidemic & delivering on the promise of an AIDS-free generation through geographic prioritization
    • Nyberg B. PEPFAR 3.0: Controlling the epidemic & delivering on the promise of an AIDS-free generation through Geographic Prioritization, Implications for OVC Programming, http://ovc support.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/NybergGeographic PrioritizationPivots.pdf, 2015.
    • (2015) Implications for OVC Programming
    • Nyberg, B.1
  • 17
    • 85016005373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Avenir Health
    • Avenir Health. Spectrum Model, http://www.futuresinstitute. org/spectrum.aspx, 2016.
    • (2016) Spectrum Model
  • 19
    • 35548978030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Critique of early models of the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in sub-saharan Africa based on contemporary empirical data from Zimbabwe
    • Gregson S, Nyamukapa C, Lopman B, Mushati P, Garnett GP, Chandiwana SK,, et al. Critique of early models of the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa based on contemporary empirical data from Zimbabwe. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2007; 104: 14586-14591.
    • (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A , vol.104 , pp. 14586-14591
    • Gregson, S.1    Nyamukapa, C.2    Lopman, B.3    Mushati, P.4    Garnett, G.P.5    Chandiwana, S.K.6
  • 22
    • 85016030839 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • UNAIDS Modelling and Projections
    • UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections, http://www.epidem.org/, 2016
    • (2016) Reference Group on Estimates
  • 23
    • 84988948623 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do HIV prevalence trends in antenatal clinic surveillance represent trends in the general population in the antiretroviral therapy era?
    • Gregson S, Dharmayat K, Pereboom M, Takaruza A, Mugurungi O, Schur N, Nyamukapa CA. Do HIV prevalence trends in antenatal clinic surveillance represent trends in the general population in the antiretroviral therapy era? AIDS 2015; 29: 1845-1853.
    • (2015) AIDS , vol.29 , pp. 1845-1853
    • Gregson, S.1    Dharmayat, K.2    Pereboom, M.3    Takaruza, A.4    Mugurungi, O.5    Schur, N.6    Nyamukapa, C.A.7
  • 24
    • 0043270423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The contribution of HIV to fertility decline in rural Zimbabwe 1985-2000
    • Terceira N, Gregson S, Zaba B, Mason P. The contribution of HIV to fertility decline in rural Zimbabwe, 1985-2000. Popul Stud (Camb) 2003; 57: 149-164.
    • (2003) Popul Stud (Camb , vol.57 , pp. 149-164
    • Terceira, N.1    Gregson, S.2    Zaba, B.3    Mason, P.4
  • 25
    • 84873020123 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spline-based modelling of trends in the force of HIV infection with application to the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package
    • Hogan DR, Salomon JA. Spline-based modelling of trends in the force of HIV infection, with application to the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package. Sex Transm Infect 2012; 88 (Suppl 2): i52-i57.
    • (2012) Sex Transm Infect , vol.88 , pp. i52-i57
    • Hogan, D.R.1    Salomon, J.A.2
  • 26
    • 84874543073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT) and ICF International
    • Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT) and ICF International. Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2010-11, 2012.
    • (2012) Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey 2010-11
  • 27
    • 49049102314 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discrepancies between un models and DHS survey estimates of maternal orphan prevalence: Insights from analyses of survey data from Zimbabwe
    • Robertson L, Gregson S, Madanhire C, Walker N, Mushati P, Garnett G, Nyamukapa C. Discrepancies between UN models and DHS survey estimates of maternal orphan prevalence: insights from analyses of survey data from Zimbabwe. Sex Transm Infect 2008; 84: i57-i62.
    • (2008) Sex Transm Infect , vol.84 , pp. i57-i62
    • Robertson, L.1    Gregson, S.2    Madanhire, C.3    Walker, N.4    Mushati, P.5    Garnett, G.6    Nyamukapa, C.7
  • 28
    • 84916888089 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing and adjusting for differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population-based surveys and antenatal care surveillance, with applications for Spectrum 2013
    • Marsh K, Mahy M, Salomon JA, Hogan DR. Assessing and adjusting for differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population-based surveys and antenatal care surveillance, with applications for Spectrum 2013. AIDS 2014; 28: S497-S505.
    • (2014) AIDS , vol.28 , pp. S497-S505
    • Marsh, K.1    Mahy, M.2    Salomon, J.A.3    Hogan, D.R.4
  • 30
    • 36348981572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changing patterns of adult mortality as the HIV epidemic matures in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe
    • Smith J, Mushati P, Kurwa F, Mason P, Gregson S, Lopman B. Changing patterns of adult mortality as the HIV epidemic matures in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. AIDS 2007; 21: S81-S86.
    • (2007) AIDS , vol.21 , pp. S81-S86
    • Smith, J.1    Mushati, P.2    Kurwa, F.3    Mason, P.4    Gregson, S.5    Lopman, B.6
  • 31
    • 67649354455 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing evidence for behaviour change affecting the course of HIV epidemics: A new mathematical modelling approach and applicationtodata fromZimbabwe
    • Hallett TB, Gregson S, Mugurungi O, Gonese E, Garnett GP. Assessing evidence for behaviour change affecting the course of HIV epidemics: a new mathematical modelling approach and applicationtodata fromZimbabwe. Epidemics2009; 1: 108-117.
    • (2009) Epidemics , vol.1 , pp. 108-117
    • Hallett, T.B.1    Gregson, S.2    Mugurungi, O.3    Gonese, E.4    Garnett, G.P.5
  • 32
    • 85016024781 scopus 로고
    • Central Statistical Office [Zimbabwe] Macro International Inc Health Survey
    • Central Statistical Office [Zimbabwe] and Macro International Inc. Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, 1994, 1995
    • (1994) Zimbabwe Demographic , vol.1995
  • 33
    • 85016057365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zimbabwe] Macro International Inc. Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey
    • Central Statistical Office [Zimbabwe] and Macro International Inc. Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 1999, 2000.
    • (1999) Central Statistical Office , vol.2000
  • 34
    • 85016051018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Macro International Inc. Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey 2005- 06
    • Central Statistical Office (CSO) [Zimbabwe] and Macro International Inc. Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey 2005-06, 2007
    • (2007) Central Statistical Office (CSO) [Zimbabwe
  • 35
    • 79951772319 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Spectrum projection package: Improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex, mother-To-child transmission, HIV progression in children and double orphans
    • Stover J, Johnson P, Hallett T, Marston M, Becquet R, Timaeus IM. The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex, mother-To-child transmission, HIV progression in children and double orphans. Sex Transm Infect 2010; 86 (Suppl 2): ii16-ii21.
    • (2010) Sex Transm Infect , vol.86 , pp. ii16-ii21
    • Stover, J.1    Johnson, P.2    Hallett, T.3    Marston, M.4    Becquet, R.5    Timaeus, I.M.6
  • 36
    • 84913557669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • HIV in children in a general population sample in East Zimbabwe: Prevalence, causes and effects
    • Pufall EL, Nyamukapa C, Eaton JW, Mutsindiri R, Chawira G, Munyati S,, et al. HIV in children in a general population sample in East Zimbabwe: prevalence, causes and effects. PloS One 2014; 9: e113415.
    • (2014) PloS One , vol.9 , pp. e113415
    • Pufall, E.L.1    Nyamukapa, C.2    Eaton, J.W.3    Mutsindiri, R.4    Chawira, G.5    Munyati, S.6
  • 38
    • 78650770362 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strong association between in-migration and HIV prevalence in urban sub-Saharan Africa
    • Voeten HA, Vissers DC, Gregson S, Zaba B, White RG, de Vlas SJ,, et al. Strong association between in-migration and HIV prevalence in urban sub-Saharan Africa. Sex Transm Dis 2010; 37: 240-243.
    • (2010) Sex Transm Dis , vol.37 , pp. 240-243
    • Voeten, H.A.1    Vissers, D.C.2    Gregson, S.3    Zaba, B.4    White, R.G.5    De Vlas, S.J.6
  • 39
    • 84865179552 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Labor migration and HIV risk: A systematic review of the literature
    • Weine SM, Kashuba AB. Labor migration and HIV risk: a systematic review of the literature. AIDS Behav 2012; 16: 1605-1621.
    • (2012) AIDS Behav , vol.16 , pp. 1605-1621
    • Weine, S.M.1    Kashuba, A.B.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.