Derivation and Internal Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for 30-Day Mortality in Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding

American Journal of Medicine

Volumn 130, Issue 5, 2017, Pages 601.e1-601.e8

  Sengupta, Neil ^a   Tapper, Elliot B ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO MEDICAL CENTER   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN MEDICAL SCHOOL   (United States)

Author keywords

Lower gastrointestinal bleeding; Mortality

Indexed keywords

ACETYLSALICYLIC ACID; ALBUMIN; ANTICOAGULANT AGENT; NONSTEROID ANTIINFLAMMATORY AGENT; THIENOPYRIDINE DERIVATIVE; WARFARIN;

ACUTE KIDNEY FAILURE; ADULT; ALBUMIN BLOOD LEVEL; ANTICOAGULANT THERAPY; ARTICLE; ATRIAL FIBRILLATION; BLOOD TRANSFUSION; CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE; CHRONIC KIDNEY FAILURE; CHRONIC LUNG DISEASE; COLORECTAL CANCER; CONGESTIVE HEART FAILURE; CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE; DEMENTIA; DISEASE ASSOCIATION; DISEASE CLASSIFICATION; DIVERTICULOSIS; END STAGE RENAL DISEASE; FEMALE; GASTROINTESTINAL HEMORRHAGE; HEMATOCRIT; HEMORRHOID; HUMAN; INTERNATIONAL NORMALIZED RATIO; INTESTINE ISCHEMIA; MACHINE LEARNING; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; METASTASIS; MORTALITY; MORTALITY RISK; PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RETROSPECTIVE STUDY; SCORING SYSTEM; VALIDATION STUDY; AGED; ALGORITHM; COLONOSCOPY; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; HOSPITAL MORTALITY; MIDDLE AGED; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; REPRODUCIBILITY; RISK FACTOR; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; STATISTICAL MODEL;

AGED; ALGORITHMS; COLONOSCOPY; DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; FEMALE; GASTROINTESTINAL HEMORRHAGE; HOSPITAL MORTALITY; HUMANS; LOGISTIC MODELS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; RISK FACTORS; ROC CURVE; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY;

EID: 85011971635     PISSN: 00029343     EISSN: 15557162     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2016.12.009     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. 1 Longstreth, G.F., Epidemiology and outcome of patients hospitalized with acute lower gastrointestinal hemorrhage: a population-based study. Am J Gastroenterol 92 (1997), 419–424.
2. 2 Strate, L.L., Lower GI bleeding: epidemiology and diagnosis. Gastroenterol Clin North Am 34 (2005), 643–664.
3. 3 Comay, D., Marshall, J.K., Resource utilization for acute lower gastrointestinal hemorrhage: the Ontario GI bleed study. Can J Gastroenterol 16 (2002), 677–682.
4. 4 Strate, L.L., Gralnek, I.M., ACG Clinical Guideline: management of patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Am J Gastroenterol, 111, 2016, 755.
5. 5 Sengupta, N., Tapper, E.B., Patwardhan, V.R., et al. Risk factors for adverse outcomes in patients hospitalized with lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Mayo Clin Proc 90 (2015), 1021–1029.
6. 6 Strate, L.L., Ayanian, J.Z., Kotler, G., Syngal, S., Risk factors for mortality in lower intestinal bleeding. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 6 (2008), 1004–1010 quiz 955.
7. 7 Nikolsky, E., Stone, G.W., Kirtane, A.J., et al. Gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndromes: incidence, predictors, and clinical implications: analysis from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. J Am Coll Cardiol 54 (2009), 1293–1302.
8. 8 Kazi, D.S., Leong, T.K., Chang, T.I., Solomon, M.D., Hlatky, M.A., Go, A.S., Association of spontaneous bleeding and myocardial infarction with long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention. J Am Coll Cardiol 65 (2015), 1411–1420.
9. 9 Witt, D.M., Delate, T., Garcia, D.A., et al. Risk of thromboembolism, recurrent hemorrhage, and death after warfarin therapy interruption for gastrointestinal tract bleeding. Arch Intern Med 172 (2012), 1484–1491.
10. 10 Sengupta, N., Feuerstein, J.D., Patwardhan, V.R., et al. The risks of thromboembolism vs. recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding after interruption of systemic anticoagulation in hospitalized inpatients with gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective study. Am J Gastroenterol 110 (2015), 328–335.
11. 11 Stanley, A.J., Update on risk scoring systems for patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. World J Gastroenterol 18 (2012), 2739–2744.
12. 12 Robertson, M., Majumdar, A., Boyapati, R., et al. Risk stratification in acute upper GI bleeding: comparison of the AIMS65 score with the Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall scoring systems. Gastrointest Endosc 83 (2016), 1151–1160.
13. 13 Aoki, T., Nagata, N., Shimbo, T., et al. Development and validation of a risk scoring system for severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 14 (2016), 1562–1570.e2.
14. 14 Strate, L.L., Saltzman, J.R., Ookubo, R., Mutinga, M.L., Syngal, S., Validation of a clinical prediction rule for severe acute lower intestinal bleeding. Am J Gastroenterol 100 (2005), 1821–1827.
15. 15 Siddique, J., Ruhnke, G.W., Flores, A., et al. Applying classification trees to hospital administrative data to identify patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding. PLoS One, 10, 2015, e0138987.
16. 16 Sullivan, L.M., Massaro, J.M., D'Agostino, R.B. Sr., Presentation of multivariate data for clinical use: The Framingham Study risk score functions. Stat Med 23 (2004), 1631–1660.
17. 17 Whelan, C.T., Chen, C., Kaboli, P., Siddique, J., Prochaska, M., Meltzer, D.O., Upper versus lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a direct comparison of clinical presentation, outcomes, and resource utilization. J Hosp Med 5 (2010), 141–147.
18. 18 Laine, L., Clinical practice. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding due to a peptic ulcer. N Engl J Med 374 (2016), 2367–2376.
19. 19 Lanas, A., Garcia-Rodriguez, L.A., Polo-Tomas, M., et al. Time trends and impact of upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding and perforation in clinical practice. Am J Gastroenterol 104 (2009), 1633–1641.
20. 20 Nagata, N., Niikura, R., Aoki, T., et al. Lower GI bleeding risk of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and antiplatelet drug use alone and the effect of combined therapy. Gastrointest Endosc 80 (2014), 1124–1131.
21. 21 Velayos, F.S., Williamson, A., Sousa, K.H., et al. Early predictors of severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding and adverse outcomes: a prospective study. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2 (2004), 485–490.
22. 22 Strate, L.L., Orav, E.J., Syngal, S., Early predictors of severity in acute lower intestinal tract bleeding. Arch Intern Med 163 (2003), 838–843.
23. 23 Das, A., Ben-Menachem, T., Cooper, G.S., et al. Prediction of outcome in acute lower-gastrointestinal haemorrhage based on an artificial neural network: internal and external validation of a predictive model. Lancet 362 (2003), 1261–1266.
24. 24 Kollef, M.H., O'Brien, J.D., Zuckerman, G.R., Shannon, W., BLEED: a classification tool to predict outcomes in patients with acute upper and lower gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Crit Care Med 25 (1997), 1125–1132.
25. 25 Newman, J., Fitzgerald, J.E., Gupta, S., von Roon, A.C., Sigurdsson, H.H., Allen-Mersh, T.G., Outcome predictors in acute surgical admissions for lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Colorectal Dis 14 (2012), 1020–1026.
26. 26 Qureshi, W., Mittal, C., Patsias, I., et al. Restarting anticoagulation and outcomes after major gastrointestinal bleeding in atrial fibrillation. Am J Cardiol 113 (2014), 662–668.
27. 27 Staerk, L., Lip, G.Y., Olesen, J.B., et al. Stroke and recurrent haemorrhage associated with antithrombotic treatment after gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study. BMJ, 351, 2015, h5876.
28. 28 Nagata, N., Niikura, R., Sakurai, T., et al. Safety and effectiveness of early colonoscopy in management of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding on the basis of propensity score matching analysis. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 14 (2016), 558–564.
29. 29 Laine, L., Shah, A., Randomized trial of urgent vs. elective colonoscopy in patients hospitalized with lower GI bleeding. Am J Gastroenterol 105 (2010), 2636–2641 quiz 2642.
30. 30 Green, B.T., Rockey, D.C., Portwood, G., et al. Urgent colonoscopy for evaluation and management of acute lower gastrointestinal hemorrhage: a randomized controlled trial. Am J Gastroenterol 100 (2005), 2395–2402.