The PLA and China′s Threat Perceptions

China Quarterly

Volumn 146, Issue , 1996, Pages 596-615

  Whiting, Allen S ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 85010143505     PISSN: 03057410     EISSN: 14682648     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0305741000045161     Document Type: Article

References (119)

1. For a recent approach to the broader subjects see Weixing Hu, “China's security agenda after the Cold War,” Pacific Review, Vol. 8, No. 1 (1995), pp. 117–136.
2. For generational differences on security cooperation and differences on transparency between civilian/military researchers and PLA officers, see Robert S. McNamara et al, Sino-American Military Relations: Mutual Responsibilities in the Post-Cold War Era (New York: National Committee on U.S. China Relations, November 1994), pp. 13–16. I am grateful for the sharing of interviews by Banning Garrett, Bonnie S. Glaser, Paul H. B. Godwin and Alfred D. Wilhelm, Jr.
3. On PLA factionalism, see Michael D. Swaine, The Military and Political Succession in China: Leadership, Institutions and Belief (Santa Monica: RAND, 1992), p. 270
4. reviewed critically by You Ji, The Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs, No. 32 (July 1994), pp. 175–178
5. For the impact of these factors on the Chinese Air Force see Kenneth W. Allen, Glenn Krumel and Jonathan D. Pollack, China's Air Force Enters the 21st Century (Santa Monica: RAND, 1995).
6. Ross. H. Munro, “Eavesdropping on the Chinese military: where it expects war - where it doesn't,” Orbis, Vol. 38, No. 3 (Summer 1994), pp. 355–372
7. comments on and translates highlights from Can China's Armed Forces Win The Next War? Pseudonymously authored and promptly withdrawn from public availability after it appeared in Beijing, its origins are obscure. For a discussion of new sources available for study of the PLA and China's national security, see David Shambaugh, “Appendix: a bibliographical essay on new sources for the study of China's foreign relations and national security,” in Thomas W. Robinson and David Shambaugh (eds.), Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994) pp. 603–618
8. and Robert S. Ross and Paul H. B. Godwin, “New directions in Chinese security studies,” in David Shambaugh (ed.), American Studies of Contemporary China (Armont, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993), pp. 138–162.
9. In one instance interviews confirmed a Zhengming (Contending) report on a unique 1993 security conference; see David Shambaugh “The insecurity of security: the PLA's evolving doctrine and threat perceptions towards 2000,” Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1 (Spring 1994), pp. 3–25. Private assessments of different Hong Kong publications by veteran local reporters show little agreement on their degree of reliability.
10. Yan Xiangjun, “Cursory analysis of Asia-Pacific situation during the 1990s,” Xiandai guoji guanxi (Contemporary International Relations), No. 38 (31 December 1992), in Joint Publication Report Service (JPRS)-CAR 93–021, 5 April 1993, pp. 1–5
11. Yan Xiangjun and Huang Tingwei, “The security situation in the Asia-Pacific region and the relevant parties' ideas on a security mechanism,” Xiandai guoji guanxi (Contemporary International Relations). No. 43 (20 May 1993), in JPRS-C AR 93–060,17 August 1993, pp. 1–5
12. Zheng Yin, “One-power domination of Asian-Pacific region unlikely,” Xiandai guoji guanxi (Contemporary International Relations). No. 10 (20 October 1994), in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China (FBIS-CHI), 1 February 1995, pp. 1–7
13. Xu Zhixian, “Northeast Asia develops dialogue and cooperation,” Xiandai guoji guanxi (Contemporary International Relations). 20 January 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 5 April 1995, pp. 2–3.
14. Banning Garrett and Bonnie Glaser, “Multilateral security in the Asia-Pacific region and its impact on Chinese interests: views from Beijing,” Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 16, No. 1 (June 1994), pp. 14–33
15. McNwiara et al., Sino-American Military Relations, p. 11, interviews with top PLA officers, May 1994.
16. Zhan Shiliang, “The Asia-Pacific situation and China's ‘good neighbor’ policy,” Guoji wenti yanjiu (International Studies), No. 50 (13 October 1993), in JPRS-CAR 94–011, 16 February 1994, pp. 1–2.
17. Lu Zhongwei, “Diplomatic orbits and alignments of Northeast Asia countries,” Xiandai guoji guanxi. No. 41 (20 March 1993), in JPRS-CAR 93–044,29 June 1993, pp. 1–3.
18. Ma Fajing, Dan Yuntian and Song Jie, “A discussion of PLA weapons development problems,” Xiandai bingqi {Modem Weaponry), No. 6 (8 June 1993), in JPRS-CAR 93–075, 12 October 1993, pp. 34–37.
19. Qi Fa, “Build a distinctly Chinese conventional deterrent,” Xiandai bingqi. No. 3 (8 March 1993), in JPRS-CAR 93–036, 3 June 1993.
20. Niu Tianjin and Zhang Shijiang, “Rambling talk on military threat,” Jiefangjun boo, 21 September 1990, in FBIS-CHI, 11 October 1990, pp. 4–6.
21. Far Eastern Economic Review, 13 April 1995, p. 28.
22. The author was Lieutenant-Colonel Cui Yu Chen at the Research Office of the Chengdu Military Region. For an April 1987 Jiefangjun bao article on necessary “living space” see Shambaugh, “The insecurity of security.”
23. Lieutenant-Commander Yang Zhiqun, “Officer's forum - brown water, blue water-thoughts on naval theory,” Jianchuan zhishi (Naval and Merchant Ships), No. 2 (8 February 1994), in JPRS-CAR 94–031, 13 May 1994, pp. 32–34.
24. Renmin ribao, 20 February 1994, in FBIS-CHI, 10 March 1994, pp. 69–70.
25. “The blue water is close to us: the law of the sea and the navy's function, record of an interview and discussion,” Renmin ribao, 8 January 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 6 April 1995, pp. 14–17.
26. For fuller treatment of this theme see Allen S. Whiting, “Chinese nationalism and foreign policy after Deng,” The China Quarterly, No. 142 (June 1995), pp. 295–316.
27. Mao Zhenfa and Lin Zhipei, “The strategic status of modern border defence,” Guofang (National Defence), No. 7 (15 July 1995), in FBIS-CHI, 3 October 1995, pp. 25–28.
28. For comprehensive background see Choon-ho Park, East Asia and the Law of the Sea (Seoul: Seoul National University Press, 1983)
29. Eric Hyer, “Dangerous shoals: an introduction to the South China Sea dispute,” American Asian Review, Vol. 12, No. 4 (Winter 1994), pp. 1001–1016.
30. John W. Garver, “China's push through the South China Sea: the interaction of bureaucratic and national interests,” The China Quarterly, No. 132 (December 1992), pp. 999–1028.
31. Nayan Chanda, “Territorial imperative,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 23 February 1995, pp. 14–16.
32. Manila Standard, 23 June 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 27 June 1995, pp. 59–60.
33. Lin Mu, “The aviation dream of the Chinese people,” Shidian, No. 7 (8 July 1994), in FBIS-CHI, 24 August 1994, pp. 35–38.
34. In 1995 one article claimed “drilling for oil and gas on more than 220 points in die South China Sea, most of which are distributed in the waters of the Nanshas [Spratlys].” Zheng Hongfan and Yin Pinduan, “I love you, Nansha,” Renmin ribao, 3 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 24 July 1995, pp. 37–38.
35. Antara in Indonesian, 21 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 24 July 1995, p. 75.
36. Far Eastern Economic Review, 19 August 1995, p. 16.
37. Xinhua Domestic Service, 14 February 1994, in FBIS-CHI, 28 February 1994, p. 43.
38. Zheng Hongfan and Yin Pinduan, “I love you, Nansha.”
39. An Jinglin and Xiong Zengyan, “The pillboxes are linked with the motherland,” Beijing Central People's Radio Network, 6 June 1994, in FBIS-CHI, 21 June 1994, pp. 9–10.
40. Yan Hongmo, Director of the State Oceanography Bureau, in an interview with the Hong Kong Standard, 20 April 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 20 April 1995, pp. 3–4, charged that “The Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam invaded … in the early 1970s when China was too busy to tackle the invasion.”
41. For reported naval views see Eastern Express, 20 April 1995 coverage of Wide Angle, 20 April 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 20 April 1995, pp. 99–100.
42. Argument by naval officers that an aircraft carrier is necessary to take the Spratlys appeared in Lin Mu, “The aviation dream”; also in Xiandai jianchuan (Modern Ships) as reported by Kyodo in English, 27 January 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 27 January 1995, pp. 24–25.
43. For a critical assessment of PLA power projection weaknesses see Michael G. Gallagher, “China's illusory threat to the South China Sea,” International Security, Vol. 38, No. 1 (Summer 1994), pp. 169–194.
44. Zhen Hongfan and Yin Pinduan, “I love you, Nansha.”
45. Cao Baojian and Ding Feng, “Years of efforts by a South Sea fleet naval base result in integrating the procurement, supply and transportation of materials to Nansha into a system,” Jiefangjun bao, 17 March 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 23 March 1995, pp. 33–34.
46. Wang Xihe, “ASEAN countries strengthen their national defence,” Jiefangjun bao, 26 June 1993, p. 2.
47. Nayan Chanda, “Show of force,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 13 October 1994, p. 29.
48. Asad Latif, “Handling of Spratlys dispute a test for ARF,” The Straits Times, 21 April 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 25 April 1995, pp. 58–59.
49. Lo Ping, “CPC military attacks Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” Zhengming, No. 201 (1 July 1994), in FBIS-CHI, 26 July 1994, pp. 33–35.
50. Chen Jie, “China's Spratly policy: with special reference to the Philippines and Malaysia,” Asian Survey, Vol. 34, No. 10 (October 1994), pp. 893–903.
51. The McNamara delegation learned this in May 1994, McNamara et al., Sino-American Military Relations, p. 16.
52. Harlan W. Jencks, “The PRC's military and security policy in the post-Cold War era,” Issues and Studies, Vol. 30, No. 11 (November 1994), p. 94
53. for the original thesis, see Scott Boorman, The Protracted Game: A Wei-ch ‘i Interpretation of Maoist Revolutionary Strategy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1969).
54. Allen S. Whiting, The Chinese Calculus ofDeterrence: India and Vietnam (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1975).
55. For a full exposition of these claims with detailed maps see Park, East Asia and the Law of the Sea.
56. Whiting, Calculus, pp. 240–241
57. Interviews by American scholars in Beijing during July 1995 experienced unusually hard-line attacks on U.S. policy, as reported by John W. Lewis and David Shambaugh, The New York Times, 1 August 1995, p. 2; the author's interviews were similar.
58. Xin Wei, “Another wrong ‘card’,” Beijing Review, 10–16 July 1995, p. 18.
59. Chen Dawei, “To make amends for the damage done to its relations with China, the United States must give up its Cold War mode of thinking,” Beijing Zhongguo xinwen she, 23 June 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 29 June 1995, pp. 3–4; for similar language see Xinhua in English, 28 July 1995
60. citing Zhou Jie, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic cooperation, in FBIS-CHI, 28 July 1995, p. 5.
61. Xinhua in English, 18 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 18 July 1995, p. 28
62. also Xinhua in English, 26 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 27 July 1995, p. 18.
63. Ming bao, 27 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 27 July 1995, p. 18
64. also South China Morning Post, 7 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 7 July 1995, p. 26.
65. Lianhe bao, 19 July 1995 and 20 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 20 July 1995, pp. 16–18
66. South China Morning Post, 7 July 1995 and 17 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 7 July 1995,26–27 and 17 July 1995, pp. 43–44.
67. Yi Fan, “Chinese Communists prepare public opinion for attacking Taiwan with force,” Zhengming, No. 208 (1 February 1995), in FBIS-CHI, 14 April 1995, pp. 22–24. Papers included “Military means, choice to achieve cross-straits reunification,” and “Military means, only way to resolve reunification issue.”
68. For a recapitulation of Hong Kong press reports alleging PLA protests on policy toward the U.S. see Whiting, “Chinese nationalism and foreign policy after Deng.” Well-informed participants at the July 1995 conference on the PLA discounted these reports as not credible.
69. For military aspects see Chong-pin Lin, “The military balance in die Taiwan Straits,” An informed cautionary note warned, “in order to carry out a sea blockade one must first seize control of the air and be able to carry out a blockade of the airspace,” Colonel Min Zengfu, assistant professor at the PRC Air Force Command College, “A glimpse at 21st century ail combat,” Zhongguo junshi kexue (China Military Science), 20 February 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 5 October 1995, pp. 17–24.
70. McNamara et al, Sino-American Military Relations, pp. 20–21.
71. Niu Jun, “Perspective of U.S. policy toward China,” Guangming ribao, 14 September 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 26 September 1995, pp. 4–6 offered a nuanced differentiation of Congressional and Executive aspects.
72. Far Eastern Economic Review, 10 August 1995, pp. 20–21.
73. Shambaugh, “The insecurity of security.” His interviews have reconfirmed this on successive visits since the mid-1980s.
74. This was confirmed by staff and faculty at the National Defence University to the McNamara delegation, Sino-American Relations, p. 16.
75. Tsung Lan-hai, “CPC decides on its international archenemy,” Zhengming, No. 195 (1 January 1994), in FBIS-CHI, 25 January 1994, pp. 4–6.
76. Shambaugh, “The insecurity of security,” reports, “this meeting, its conclusions, and the authenticity of the Zhengming report have been confirmed to me by participants.”
77. The reference is made by Shambaugh, “The insecurity of security.” In July 1995 interviews with security analysts included the assertion, “if the U.S. sees China as its enemy, we will respond in kind.”
78. Memorandum, Office of Senior Specialists, Congressional Research Service, 15 August 1994.
79. Robert G. Sutter and Shirley Kan, China as a Security Concern in Asia: Perceptions, Assessment, and U.S. Options (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 22 December 1994).
80. Robert G. Sutter, China in World Affairs - U.S. Policy Choices (Washington, D.C: Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress, 31 January 1995).
81. See 1986 interviews in Allen S. Whiting, China Eyes Japan (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989)
82. for 1992, Bonnie S. Glaser, “China's security perceptions: interests and ambitions,” Asian Survey, Vol. 33, No. 3 (March 1993)
83. for 1993, Shambaugh, “The insecurity of security”
84. for 1994, Thomas J. Christensen, “Structure, perceptions, and aspirations in Chinese security policy,” unpublished manuscript.
85. Shambaugh, “The insecurity of security.”
86. Zong Heshi, “International trends: review and forecast,” Xiandai guoji guanxi, No. 1 (20 January 1995), in FBIS-CHI, 14 July 1995, pp. 5–7.
87. Wei Yang, “Keep watch on Japan's movement,” Liaowang, No. 26 (26 June 1995), in FBIS-CHI, 18 July 1995, pp. 11–12.
88. See also Wang Guotai, “ ‘Resolution’ that fails to distinguish right from wrong,” Renmin ribao, 27 June 1994, in FBIS-CHI, 5 July 1995, pp. 16–17.
89. Li Peng to Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, 3 May 1995, Xinhua Domestic Service, 3 May 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 4 May 1995, pp. 8–9.
90. Xinhua in English, 4 July 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 5 July 1995, p. 17, summarizes “the first… systematic collection of documentary materials” on Japanese atrocities, including “bombing of Tianjin and massacres in Baoding and Shijiazhuang” published in August 1995.
91. Geng Dianzhong, “From Seattle to Jakarta,” Shijie jingji yu zhengshi, No. 2 (10 February 1995), in FBIS-CHI, 16 May 1995, pp. 7–11. The article was written in December 1994.
92. Michael D. Swaine, “The modernization of the Chinese People's Liberation Army: prospects and implications for Northeast Asia,” NBR Analysis, Vol. 5, No. 3 (October 1994).
93. For Japanese concern see Ikuo Kayahara, chief of Asian Region Research Office, National Institute for Defence Studies, “Thorough analysis of the Chinese military power,” Chuo koron, February 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 1 February 1995, pp. 15–21.
94. Lin Mu, “The aviation dream”
95. the same article appeared in Guandian, Kyodo in English, 26 July 1994, in FBIS-CHI, 27 July 1994, pp. 10–11.
96. Kyodo in English, 11 April 1995, in FBIS-East Asia (EAS), 12 April 1995, pp. 9–10.
97. Xiandai jianchuan cited by Kyodo in English, 2 June 1994, in FBIS-CHI, 2 June 1994, pp. 6–7.
98. Tsung Lan-hai, “CPC decides on its international archenemy.”
99. Shu Xiangdi, “Russia's Asia policy,” Xiandai guoji guanxi. No. 12 (20 December 1994), in FBIS-CHI, 3 May 1995, pp. 4–7.
100. For a provocative view, see Hung P. Nguyen, “Russia and China: the genesis of an Eastern Rapallo,” Asian Survey, Vol. 33, No. 3 (March 1993), pp. 285–301.
101. Harry Gelman, “Japan and China as seen from Moscow today,” Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Winter 1994), pp. 49–60
102. Charles E. Ziegler, “Russia in the Asia-Pacific: a major power or minor participant?” Asian Survey, Vol. 34, No. 6 (June 1994), pp. 529–543.
103. Glaser “China's security perceptions,” p. 256, n. 3.
104. For the 1995 joint communique between Premier Li and Prime Minister Chernomyrdin addressing this issue see Xinhua Domestic Service, 27 June 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 29 June 1995, pp. 8–9.
105. China Daily, 10 May 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 10 May 1995, p. 10.
106. Editorial, “We should safeguard world peace and promote mutual development-greeting President Jiang Zemin's successful trip to Moscow,” Renmin ribao, 10 May 1995, Xinhua Domestic Service, 9 May 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 10 May 1995, pp. 11–12.
107. Wang Jinfeng, “World military situation in evolution,” Jiefangjun bao, 4 January 1994, p. 4.
108. J. Richard Walsh, “China and the new geopolitics of Central Asia,” Asian Survey, Vol. 33, No. 3 (March 1993), pp. 272–285.
109. Yitzhak Shichor, “Separatism: Sino-Muslim conflict in Xinjiang,” Pacific Review, Vol. 6, No. 2 (1994).
110. Allen S. Whiting and Sheng Shih-tsai, Sinkiang: Pawn or Pivot? (East Lansing: Michigan State University Press, 1958).
111. Li Rongxia, “Tarim Basin: new hope for China's oil industry,” Beijing Review, Vol. 38, No. 17 (24–30 April 1995), pp. 10–13.
112. “Our important political task,” Lhasa Tibet Television Network in Mandarin, 6 April 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 11 April 1995, pp. 75–76.
113. J. Mohan Malik, “China-India relations in the post-Soviet era: the continuing rivalry,” The China Quarterly, No. 142 (June 1995), pp. 317–355, esp. p. 328.
114. Yan Xuetong, “Economic security, good-neighbour policy emphasized in post-Cold War security strategy,” Xiandai guoji guanxi, No. 8 (20 August 1995) in FBIS-CHI, 16 October 1995, pp. 8–14.
115. Mao Zhenfa and Lin Zhipei, “The strategic status of modern border defence.”
116. “Ten years of combat readiness - a look at China-Burma border defence work,” Renmin gongan bao, 3 February 1994, in JPRS-CAR 94–026, 27 April 1994, pp. 27–29.
117. Zhou Defeng and Chen Weimin, “Seriously study how to win small wars,” Jiefangjun bao, 1 January 1993, p. 3.
118. In addition to the relevant papers in this volume, for analysis of the PLA in Chinese politics see Willy Wo-Lap Lam, China After Deng Xiaoping: The Power Struggle Since Tiananmen (Hong Kong: PA Professional Consultants, 1995), ch. 4.
119. Allen S. Whiting, The Chinese Calculus of Deterrence: India and Vietnam (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1975).