Predicted Increases in Incidence of Colorectal Cancer in Developed and Developing Regions, in Association With Ageing Populations

Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology

Volumn 15, Issue 6, 2017, Pages 892-900.e4

  Tsoi, Kelvin K F ^a   Hirai, Hoyee W ^a   Chan, Felix C H ^a   Griffiths, Sian ^a,b   Sung, Joseph J Y ^a  

^a CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^b IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Colon Cancer; Cross National Comparison; IARC; Old Age; Rectal Cancer

Indexed keywords

AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; AGING; ARTICLE; ASIA; CANCER INCIDENCE; CANCER REGISTRY; CANCER RESEARCH; CHINA; COLORECTAL CANCER; CONTROLLED STUDY; COSTA RICA; CROATIA; DEVELOPED COUNTRY; DEVELOPING COUNTRY; EUROPE; FEMALE; HONG KONG; HUMAN; JAPAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; POPULATION GROWTH; POPULATION RESEARCH; PREDICTION; SEX DIFFERENCE; SWEDEN; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; UNITED KINGDOM; UNITED STATES; ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE; CHILD; COLORECTAL TUMOR; GLOBAL HEALTH; INCIDENCE; INFANT; MIDDLE AGED; NEWBORN; PRESCHOOL CHILD; SEX FACTOR; VERY ELDERLY; YOUNG ADULT;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE FACTORS; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; COLORECTAL NEOPLASMS; DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; FEMALE; GLOBAL HEALTH; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INFANT; INFANT, NEWBORN; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; SEX FACTORS; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 85009911228     PISSN: 15423565     EISSN: 15427714     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2016.09.155     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. 1 Christensen, K., Doblhammer, G., Rau, R., et al. Ageing populations: the challenges ahead. Lancet 374 (2009), 1196–1208.
2. 2 Bray, F., Møller, B., Predicting the future burden of cancer. Nat Rev Cancer 6 (2006), 63–74.
3. 3 Jemal, A., Bray, F., Center, M.M., et al. Global cancer statistics. CA Cancer J Clin 61 (2011), 69–90.
4. 4 Fitzmaurice, C., Dicker, D., Pain, A., et al., Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration. The global burden of cancer 2013. JAMA Oncol 1 (2015), 505–527.
5. 5 Mistry, M., Parkin, D.M., Ahmad, A.S., et al. Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030. Br J Cancer 105 (2011), 1795–1803.
6. 6 Rapiti, E., Guarnori, S., Pastoors, B., et al. Planning for the future: cancer incidence projections in Switzerland up to 2019. BMC Public Health, 14, 2014, 102.
7. 7 Jung, K.W., Park, S., Won, Y.J., et al. Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea, 2011. Cancer Res Treat 43 (2011), 12–18.
8. 8 Rahib, L., Smith, B.D., Aizenberg, R., et al. Projecting cancer incidence and deaths to 2030: the unexpected burden of thyroid, liver, and pancreas cancers in the United States. Cancer Res 74 (2014), 2913–2921.
9. 9 Smith, B.D., Smith, G.L., Hurria, A., et al. Future of cancer incidence in the United States: burdens upon an aging, changing nation. J Clin Oncol 27 (2009), 2758–2765.
10. 10 Mathers, C.D., Loncar, D., Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med, 3, 2006, e442.
11. 11 Sriplung, H., Wiangnon, S., Sontipong, S., et al. Cancer incidence trends in Thailand, 1989-2000. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev 7 (2006), 239–244.
12. 12 Yang, L., Parkin, D.M., Ferlay, J., et al. Estimates of cancer incidence in China for 2000 and projections for 2005. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 14 (2005), 243–250.
13. 13 Weir, H.K., Thompson, T.D., Soman, A., et al. The past, present, and future of cancer incidence in the United States: 1975 through 2020. Cancer 121 (2015), 1827–1837.
14. 14 Ahmad OB, Boschi-Pinto C, Lopez AD, et al. Age standardization of rates: a new WHO standard. World Health Organization 2001. GPE Discussion Paper Series: No. 31. Available at: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper31.pdf. Accessed August 6, 2015.
15. 15 Ferlay J, Bray F, Steliarova-Foucher E, et al. Cancer incidence in five continents, CI5plus. IARC CancerBase No. 9. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2014. Available at: http://ci5.iarc.fr. Accessed July 28, 2015.
16. 16 World Bank Data. The World Bank Group. Washington, DC. Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups. Accessed July 28, 2015.
17. 17 Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P., Schmidt, P., et al. Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. J Econom 54 (1992), 159–178.
18. 18 Fan, J., Gijbels, I., Local polynomial modelling and its applications. 1996, Chapman and Hall, London.
19. 19 Gilbertsen, V.A., Church, T.R., Grewe, F.J., et al. The design of a study to assess occult-blood screening for colon cancer. J Chronic Dis 33 (1980), 107–114.
20. 20 Mandel, J.S., Bond, J.H., Church, T.R., et al. Reducing mortality from colorectal cancer by screening for fecal occult blood. N Engl J Med 328 (1993), 1365–1367.
21. 21 Nishihara, R., Wu, K., Lochhead, P., et al. Long-term colorectal-cancer incidence and mortality after lower endoscopy. N Engl J Med 369 (2013), 1095–1105.
22. 22 Schoen, R.E., Pinsky, P.F., Weissfeld, J.L., et al. Colorectal-cancer incidence and mortality with screening flexible sigmoidoscopy. N Engl J Med 366 (2012), 2345–2357.
23. 23 Shaukat, A., Mongin, S.J., Geisser, M.S., et al. Long-term mortality after screening for colorectal cancer. N Engl J Med 369 (2013), 1106–1114.
24. 24 Wekch, H.G., Robertson, D.J., Colorectal cancer on the decline – why screening can't explain it all. N Engl J Med 374 (2016), 1605–1607.
25. 25 Gilbertsen Knatterud, G.L., Lober, P.H., et al. Invasive carcinoma of the large intestine: a preventable disease?. Surgery 57 (1965), 363–365.
26. 26 Tsoi, K.K.F., Pau, Y.Y., Wu, W.K.K., et al. Cigarette smoking and the risk of colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 7 (2009), 682–688.
27. 27 Harris, J.E., Cigarette smoking among successive birth cohorts of men and women in the United Sates during 1900-80. J Natl Cancer Inst 71 (1983), 473–479.
28. 28 Flore, M.C., Novotny, T.E., Pierce, J.P., et al. Trends in cigarette smoking in the United States. JAMA 264 (1989), 49–55.
29. 29 Lin, O.S., Kozarek, R.A., Schembre, D.B., et al. Risk stratification for colon neoplasia: screening strategies using colonoscopy and computerized tomographic colonography. Gastroenterology 131 (2006), 1011–1019.
30. 30 Yeoh, K.G., Ho, K.Y., Chiu, H.M., et al. The Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening score: a validated tool that stratifies risk for colorectal advanced neoplasia in asymptomatic Asian subjects. Gut 60 (2011), 1236–1241.
31. 31 Kaminski, M., Polkowski, M., Kraszewska, E., et al. A score to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia at colonoscopy. Gut 63 (2014), 1112–1119.
32. 32 Sonnenberg, A., Delcò, F., Inadomi, J.M., Cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy in screening for colorectal cancer. Ann Intern Med 133 (2000), 573–584.
33. 33 Tsoi, K.K.F., Ng, S.S.M., Leung, M.C.M., et al. Cost-effectiveness analysis on screening for colorectal neoplasm and management of colorectal cancer in Asia. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 28 (2008), 353–363.
34. 34 Qaseem, A., Denberg, T.D., Hopkins, R.H., et al. Screening for colorectal cancer: a guidance statement from the American College of Physicians. Ann Intern Med 156 (2012), 378–386.