Understanding the spatio-temporal influence of climate variability on Australian heatwaves

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 37, Issue 10, 2017, Pages 3963-3975

  Loughran, Tammas F ^a   Perkins Kirkpatrick, Sarah E ^a   Alexander, Lisa V ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

Author keywords

Australia; climate variability; ENSO; excess heat factor; extremes; heatwaves

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS;

AUSTRALIA; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; ENSO; EXCESS HEATS; EXTREMES; HEATWAVES;

CLIMATOLOGY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE VARIATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXTREME EVENT; HEAT WAVE; HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM; PREDICTION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 85009219544     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.4971     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Alexander L. 2011. Extreme heat rooted in dry soils. Nat. Geosci. 4(1): 12–13, doi: 10.1038/ngeo1045.
2. Anderson GB, Bell ML. 2011. Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification. Environ. Health Perspect. 119: 210–218, doi: 10.1289/ehp.1002313.
3. Arblaster JM, Alexander LV. 2012. The impact of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation on maximum temperature extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L20702, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053409.
4. Ashok K. 2003. Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Australian winter rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30: 1821, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017926.
5. Benjamini Y, Hochberg Y. 1995. Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. J. R. Stat. Soc. B. Methodol. 57: 289–300, doi: 10.2307/2346101.
6. Boschat G, Pezza A, Simmonds I, Perkins S, Cowan T, Purich A. 2014. Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia. Clim. Dyn. 44: 1823–1840, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2214-5.
7. Buell CE. 1979. On the physical interpretation of empirical orthogonal functions. In Preprints, 6th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences. American Meteorological Society, 112–117.
8. Cai W, van Rensch P, Cowan T, Hendon HH. 2011. Teleconnection Pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the Mechanisms for Impacts on Australian Rainfall. J. Clim. 24: 3910–3923, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1.
9. Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD, Matsui N, Allan RJ, Yin X, Gleason BE, Vose RS, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel RI, Grant AN, Groisman PY, Jones PD, Kruk MC, Kruger AC, Marshall GJ, Maugeri M, Mok HY, Nordli Ø, Ross TF, Trigo RM, Wang XL, Woodruff SD, Worley SJ. 2011. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 1–28, doi: 10.1002/qj.776.
10. Cowan T, Purich A, Perkins S, Pezza A, Boschat G, Sadler K. 2014. More frequent, longer and hotter heat waves for Australia in the 21st century. J. Clim. 27: 5851–5871, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1.
11. Decker WL. 1967. Periods with Temperatures Critical to Agriculture. University of Missouri, Agricultural Experiment Station: Columbia, MO.
12. Della-Marta PM, Luterbacher J, von Weissenfluh H, Xoplaki E, Brunet M, Wanner H. 2007. Summer heat waves over Western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability. Clim. Dyn. 29: 251–275, doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0233-1.
13. Dommenget D. 2011. An objective analysis of the observed spatial structure of the tropical Indian Ocean SST variability. Clim. Dyn. 36(11–12): 2129–2145, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0787-1.
14. Dulière V, Zhang Y, Salathé EP. 2013. Changes in twentieth-century extreme temperature and precipitation over the Western United States based on observations and regional climate model simulations. J. Clim. 26(21): 8556–8575, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00818.1.
15. Farooq M, Bramley H, Palta JA, Kadambot HM, Farooq M, Bramley H, Palta JA, Siddique KHM. 2016. Heat stress in wheat during reproductive and grain-filling phases. Crit. Rev. Plant Sci. 30: 491–507, doi: 10.1080/07352689.2011.615687.
16. Herold N, Kala J, Alexander LV. 2016. The influence of soil moisture deficits on Australian heatwaves. Environ. Res. Lett. 11(6): 1–8, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064003.
17. Jones DA, Trewin BC. 2000. On the relationships between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Australian land surface temperature. Int. J. Climatol. 20: 697–719, doi: 10.1002/1097-0088(20000615)20:7<697::aid-joc499>3.0.co;2-a.
18. Jones DA, Wang W, Fawcett R. 2009. High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J. 58: 233–248.
19. Kaiser HF. 1958. The varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis. Psychometrika 23: 187–200, doi: 10.1007/BF02289233.
20. Kala J, Evans JP, Pitman AJ. 2015. Influence of antecedent soil moisture conditions on the synoptic meteorology of the Black Saturday bushfire event in southeast Australia. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141: 3118–3129, doi: 10.1002/qj.2596.
21. Karl TR, Koscielny AJ, Diaz HF. 1982. Potential errors in the application of principal component (eigenvector) analysis to geophysical data. J. Appl. Metorol. 21: 1183–1186.
22. Kenyon J, Hegerl GC. 2008. Influence of modes of climate variability on global temperature extremes. J. Clim. 21: 3872–3889, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2125.1.
23. King AD, Alexander LV, Donat MG. 2013. The efficacy of using gridded data to examine extreme rainfall characteristics: a case study for Australia. Int. J. Climatol. 33: 2376–2387, doi: 10.1002/joc.3588.
24. Madden RA, Julian PR. 1972. Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40–50 day period. J. Atmos. Sci. 29: 1109–1123, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<1109:DOGSCC>2.0.CO;2.
25. Marshall GJ. 2003. Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Clim. 16: 4134–4143, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4134:TITSAM>2.0.CO;2.
26. Marshall AG, Hudson D, Wheeler MC, Alves O, Hendon HH, Pook MJ, Risbey JS. 2013. Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2. Clim. Dyn. 43: 1915–1937, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-2016-1.
27. McBride JL, Mills GA, Wain AG. 2009. The Meteorology of Australian heatwaves. In Modelling and Understanding High Impact Weather: Extended Abstracts of the Third CAWCR Modelling Workshop, 91–94.
28. Meyers G, McIntosh P, Pigot L, Pook M. 2007. The years of El Niño, La Niña, and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Clim. 20: 2872–2880, doi: 10.1175/JCLI4152.1.
29. Miralles DG, Teuling AJ, Van Heerwaarden CC. 2014. Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation. Nat. Geosci. 7(5): 345–349, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2141.
30. Nairn J, Fawcett R. 2013. Defining heatwaves: heatwave defined as a heat-impact event servicing all community and business sectors in Australia. CAWCR Tech. Rep. 60: 10–15.
31. Nairn J, Fawcett R, Ray D. 2009. Defining and predicting excessive heat events, a national system. CAWCR Tech. Rep. 60: 83–86.
32. NOAA/NWS/CPC. 2005. Historical El Nino/La Nina episodes (1950–present). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (accessed 1 March 2016).
33. North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF. 1982. Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Weather Rev. 110: 699–706, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2.
34. Parker TJ, Berry GJ, Reeder MJ, Nicholls N. 2014. Modes of climate variability and heat waves in Victoria, southeastern Australia. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41: 6926–6934, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061736.
35. Perkins SE, Alexander LV. 2013. On the measurement of heat waves. J. Clim. 26: 4500–4517, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1.
36. Perkins SE, Alexander LV, Nairn JR. 2012. Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L20714, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053361.
37. Perkins SE, Argüeso D, White CJ. 2015. Relationships between climate variability, soil moisture, and Australian heatwaves. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120: 8144–8164, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023592.Received.
38. Pezza AB, Rensch P, Cai W. 2012. Severe heat waves in Southern Australia: synoptic climatology and large scale connections. Clim. Dyn. 38: 209–224, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1016-2.
39. Power SB, Haylock M, Colman R, Wang X. 2006. The predictability of interdecadal changes in ENSO activity and ENSO teleconnections. J. Clim. 19(19): 4755–4771, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3868.1.
40. Purich A, Cowan T, Cai W, van Rensch P, Uotila P, Pezza A, Boschat G, Perkins S. 2014. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with southern Australian heat waves: a CMIP5 analysis. J. Clim. 27: 7807–7829, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00098.1.
41. Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH. 1982. Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the southern oscillation/El Nino. Mon. Weather Rev. 110: 354–384.
42. Rayner NA. 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. 108: 4407, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670.
43. Richman MB. 1986. Rotation of principal components. J. Climatol. 6: 293–335.
44. Risbey JS, Pook MJ, McIntosh PC, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH. 2009. On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Mon. Weather Rev. 137(10): 3233–3253, doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2861.1.
45. Saji NH, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T. 1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: 360–363.
46. Sen PK. 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63: 1379–1389, doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004.
47. Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschi M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ. 2010. Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: a review. Earth Sci. Rev. 99(3/4): 125–161, doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004.
48. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM. 2000. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I. Month-to-month variability. J. Clim. 13: 1000–1016.
49. Timbal B, Power S, Colman R, Viviand J, Lirola S. 2002. Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia? J. Clim. 15(10): 1230–1238, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1230:DSMICV>2.0.CO;2.
50. Trenberth KE. 1997. The definition of El Niño. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78: 2771–2777, doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2.
51. Trenberth KE, Caron JM. 2000. The southern oscillation revisited: sea level pressures, surface temperatures, and precipitation. J. Clim. 13(24): 4358–4365, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4358:TSORSL>2.0.CO;2.
52. Trewin B. 2009. A new index for monitoring changes in heatwaves and extended cold spells. In 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Melbourne, Australia.
53. Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, Briggs PR, England MH, McIntosh PC, Meyers GA, Pook MJ, Raupach MR, Risbey JS. 2011. Indian and Pacific Ocean influences on southeast Australian drought and soil moisture. J. Clim. 24: 1313–1336, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3475.1.
54. Visbeck M. 2009. A station-based southern annular mode index from 1884 to 2005. J. Clim. 22: 940–950, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2260.1.
55. Wilks D. 2006. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Elsevier Science: Burlington, MA.
56. Zhang K, Rood RB, Michailidis G, Oswald EM, Schwartz JD, Zanobetti A, Ebi KL, Neill MSO. 2012. Comparing exposure metrics for classifying “dangerous heat” in heat wave and health warning systems. Environ. Int. 46: 23–29, doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2012.05.001.