Lessons of Iranian missile programs for U.S. nonproliferation policy

Nonproliferation Review

Volumn 5, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 17-26

  Karp, Aaron ^a  

^a OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 85008758062     PISSN: 10736700     EISSN: 17461766     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10736709808436717     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Peter Sawchyn, “Gulf Policy Experts Call for More Dialogue between US and Iran,” USIS Wireless Fite, April 22, 1998.
2. On the most important precedent for package deals see Michael J. Mazarr, North Korea and the Bomb (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1995), pp. 226-231.
3. Aaron Karp, “The New Politics of Missile Proliferation,” Arms Control Today 26 (October 1996), pp. 10-14.
4. For example, see Ballistic Missile Threat from Iran, Hearing before the Military Research and Development Subcommittee of the House National Security Committee, November 5, 1997.
5. “Iraq’s Program of Mass Destruction,” Fact Sheet, The White House, November 19, 1997.
6. “Japan Plans Ballistic Missile Defence Decision,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, February 25, 1998, p. 3.
7. “U.S. Checking Sale of Missiles,” International Herald Tribune, June 22-23, 1996, p. 1.
8. Barbara Starr, “CIA Discloses Source of Egyptian ‘Scud-B’ Parts,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, July 9, 1997, p. 5.
9. “India Ready for Lift-Off on Agni Missile Production,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, February 25, 1998, p. 17.
10. Zahid Hussain, “Pakistani Missile Can Hit Delhi,” The Times (London), April 7, 1998.
11. Joseph S. Bermudez, “Iran’s Missile Development,” in Harlan Jencks and William C. Potter, eds., The International Missile Bazaar (Boulder: Westview, 1994), Chapter 3.
12. A few have been at least partially successful, especial the Oghab and Nazeat series. Others never reached operational service, including the Shahin-1 and -2 and the mysterious Mushak and Zelzal series. The most recently revealed was the NP-110, with an estimated range of 130 to 170 km, described in Bill Gertz, “China Joins Forces with Iran on Short-Range Missile,” The Washington Times, June 17, 1997, p. A3.
13. W. Seth Cams, Ballistic Missiles in Modern Conflict (Westport: Praeger, 1991), pp. 8-9, 37.
14. “Iran Fired,” The Economist, November 12, 1994, p. 6.
15. The Military Balance 1997/98 (London: Oxford and the IISS, October 1997), p. 126.
16. U.S. Department of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response 1997 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, November 1997), p. 6.
17. Tim Weiner, “U.S. Says North Korea Helped Develop New Pakistani Missile,” The New York Times, April 11, 1998, p. A3.
18. Reports that Iran’s solid fuel Shahab-3 missile is “based on a North Korean design,” cannot be reconciled with North Korea’s minimal solid fuel expertise and probably should be dismissed. Cited in Eric Schmitt, “Senate Passes Bill to Punish Giving Missile Help to Iran,” The New York Times, May 23, 1998, p. A3.
19. W. Seth Cams, Cruise Missile Proliferation in the 1990s (Westport: Praeger and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1992).
20. K. Scott McMahon and Dennis M. Gormley, Controlling the Spread of Land-Attack Cruise Missiles (Marina del Ray: American Institute for Strategic Cooperation, 1995).
21. Dennis M. Gormley, “Hedging against the Cruise-Missile Threat,” Survival 40 (Spring 1998), pp. 97-98.
22. Alan George, “Iran Uses Styx Technology in Cruise-Missile Develop-ment,” Flight International, November 16, 1994.
23. Another early and detailed report was Barbara Opall, “Israelis Say Russia Aids Iran’s Quest for Missiles,” Defense News, February 10, 1997, p. 1.
24. According to a report by SIPRI researcher Eric Arnett in Jane’s Defence Weekly, December 4, 1996.
25. Steven Zaloga, “The Missiles of October: Soviet ballistic Missile Forces during the Cuban Crisis,” Journal of Soviet Military Studies 3 (June 1990), pp. 307-323.
26. Brad Roberts, “Rethinking N+l,” The National Interest 51 (Spring 1988), p. 77.
27. Anthony H. Cordesman and Ahmed S. Hashim, Iran: Dilemmas of Dual Containment (Boulder: Westview, 1997), p. 306.
28. The concept of soft technology is developed more fully in Aaron Karp, Ballistic Missile Pro-liferation: the Politics and Technics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996), pp. 51-98.
29. Shahram Chubin, “Arms procurement in Iran,” in Eric Arnett, ed., Military Capacity and the Risk of War (Oxford: Oxford University Press and SIPRI, 1997), pp. 233-234.
30. Bill Gertz, “Russia Conspiring with Iran on Missiles,” The Washington Times, February 23, p. A1.
31. Michael R. Gordon, “Russians Order Expulsion of Iranian Detained as a Missile Spy,” The New York Times, November 18, 1997, p. A10.
32. Bill Gertz, “Russia Disregards Pledge to Curb Iran Missile Output,” The Washington Times, May 22, 1997, p. A3.
33. Amos A. Jordan and Jae H. Ku, “Coping with North Korea,” The Washington Quarterly 21 (Winter 1998), pp. 33-34.
34. Barbara Starr, “Korean Government ‘Could Collapse by 2001,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, January 7, p. 14.
35. World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 1995 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, April 1996), p. 78.
36. Cordesman and Hashim, Iran: Dilemmas of Dual Containment, pp. 170-175.
37. Dina Kraft, “Russian Minister Tells Israelis Moscow Is Not Arming Iran,” Washington Times, October 27, 1997, p. A11.
38. Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt, “Missile-Quality Russian Steel Was Nearly Smuggled to Iran,” The New York Times, April 25, 1998, p. A1.
39. CIA Director George Tenet quoted in Bill Gertz, “CIA Warns of Iran Missile Threat; Russian Technology Helps Speed Development, Tenet Says,” Washington Times, January 29, 1998, p. 1.
40. Gordon and Schmitt, “Missile-Quality Russian Steel Was Nearly Smuggled to Iran,” p. A1.
41. Andrew J. Pierre and Dmitri V. Trenin, eds., Russia in the World Arms Trade (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment, 1997).
42. Stephen J. Blank makes the case that Moscow, seeing no immediate threat of war from potential enemies like China, India or Iran for eight to 10 years, feels no inhibitions over selling them military technology. Blank, Russia’s Armed Forces on the Brink of Reform (Carlisle, Pennsylvania: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 1998), p. 12.
43. Symposium on “Export Controls in the People’s Republic of China,” The Monitor 3/4 (Fall 1997/Winter 1988), pp. 17-34.
44. Lisa Burgess, “U.S. Ties Business, Foreign Policy,” Defense News, March 16, 1998, p. 12. In fairness it should be noted that nonproliferation is but one of the objectives of the NASA-Glavkosmos deal, which also facilitated the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Baltics and supports Russian involvement in the U.S.-led international space station.
45. Tim Weiner, “U.S. Weighs Deal to Halt Missile-Gear Sales by China,” The New York Times, March 19, 1998, p. A8.
46. Bill Gertz, “Clinton Arms Official Cites Secrecy, Refuses to Comment on Missile Deal,” The Washington Times, March 19, 1998, p. A3.
47. Mitchell Reiss, Bridled Ambition: Why Countries Constrain Their Nuclear Capabilities (Bal-timore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995).