Visualizing and verifying probabilistic forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 43, Issue 23, 2016, Pages 12,278-12,286

  Marshall, Andrew G ^a   Hendon, Harry H ^a   Hudson, Debra ^a  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Madden Julian Oscillation; probabilistic forecast; probabilistic verification; real time monitoring; Real time Multivariate MJO index

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; PROBABILITY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; PROBABILISTIC VERIFICATION; REAL TIME; REAL TIME MONITORING;

CLIMATOLOGY;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; INDEX METHOD; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; PROBABILITY; REAL TIME; SOFTWARE;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 85007502599     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071423     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Brier, G. W. (1950), Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Mon. Weather Rev., 78, 1–3.
2. Colman, R., L. Deschamps, M. Naughton, L. Rikus, A. Sulaiman, K. Puri, G. Roff, Z. Sun, and G. Embury (2005), BMRC Atmospheric Model (BAM) version 3.0: Comparison with mean climatology, BMRC Res. Rep. 108, Bur. Meteorol., Melbourne, Australia.
3. Gottschalck, J., et al. (2010), A framework for assessing operational Madden-Julian Oscillation Forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO working group project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1247–1258.
4. Hamill, T. M., and G. Kiladis (2014), Skill of the MJO and Northern Hemisphere blocking in GEFS medium-range reforecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 868–885.
5. Hersbach, H. (2000), Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems, Weather Forecast., 15, 559–570.
6. Hudson, D., O. Alves, H. H. Hendon, and G. Wang (2011), The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST, Clim. Dyn., 36, 1155–1171.
7. Hudson, D., A. Marshall, Y. Yin, O. Alves, and H. Hendon (2013), Improving intraseasonal prediction with a new ensemble generation strategy, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 4429–4449.
8. Hudson, D., A. G. Marshall, O. Alves, G. Young, D. Jones, and A. Watkins (2015), Forewarned is forearmed: Extended range forecast guidance of recent extreme heat events in Australia, Weather Forecast., 31, 697–711.
9. Kalnay, E., et al. (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-year Reanalysis Project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471.
10. Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith (1996), Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 1275–1277.
11. Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian (1971), Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702–708.
12. Maharaj, E. A., and M. C. Wheeler (2005), Forecasting an index of the Madden-oscillation, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1611–1618.
13. Marshall, A. G., D. Hudson, M. C. Wheeler, H. H. Hendon, and O. Alves (2011a), Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system, Clim. Dyn., 37, 2129–2141.
14. Marshall, A. G., D. Hudson, M. C. Wheeler, H. H. Hendon, and O. Alves (2011b), Evaluating key drivers of Australian intra-seasonal climate variability in POAMA-2: A progress report, CAWCR Res. Lett., 7, 10–16.
15. Marshall, A. G., H. H. Hendon, and G. Wang (2016), On the role of anomalous ocean surface temperatures for promoting the record Madden-Julian Oscillation in March 2015, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 472–481, doi:10.1002/2015GL066984.
16. Neena, J. M., J. Y. Lee, D. Waliser, B. Wang, and X. Jiang (2014), Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE), J. Clim., 27, 4531–4543.
17. Nordeng, T.-E. (1994), Extended versions of the convective parameterization scheme at ECMWF and their impact upon the mean climate and transient activity of the model in the tropics, Res. Dep. Tech. Memo. No. 206, ECMWF, Reading, U. K.
18. Rashid, H., H. H. Hendon, M. Wheeler, and O. Alves (2011), Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with the POAMA dynamical seasonal prediction system, Clim. Dyn., 36, 649–661.
19. Schiller, A., J. S. Godfrey, P. McIntosh, and G. Meyers (1997), A global ocean general circulation model climate variability studies, CSIRO Marine Res. Rep. 227.
20. Stockdale, T. N. (1997), Coupled ocean–atmosphere forecasts in the presence of climate drift, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 809–818.
21. Tiedke, M. (1989), A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterisation in large-scale models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1779–1800.
22. Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon (2004), An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1917–1932.
23. Wheeler, M. C., H. H. Hendon, S. Cleland, H. Meinke, and A. Donald (2009), Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Australian rainfall and circulation, J. Clim., 22, 1482–1498.
24. Wilks, D. S. (2006), Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd ed., 627 pp., Elsevier, Amsterdam.
25. Yin, Y., O. Alves, and P. R. Oke (2011), An ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 786–808.