H7N9 and H5N1 avian influenza suitability models for China: accounting for new poultry and live-poultry markets distribution data

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Volumn 31, Issue 2, 2017, Pages 393-402

  Artois, Jean ^a   Lai, Shengjie ^b,c,d   Feng, Luzhao ^b   Jiang, Hui ^b   Zhou, Hang ^b   Li, Xiangping ^d   Dhingra, Madhur S ^a,e   Linard, Catherine ^a,f   Nicolas, Gaëlle ^a   Xiao, Xiangming ^g   Robinson, Timothy P ^h   Yu, Hongjie ^d   Gilbert, Marius ^a,i  

^a UNIVERSITÉ LIBRE DE BRUXELLES   (Belgium)

^b CHINESE CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (China)

^c UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

^d FUDAN UNIVERSITY   (China)

^e Government of Haryana   (India)

^f UNIVERSITY OF NAMUR   (Belgium)

^g UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

^h INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Kenya)

ⁱ FNRS   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Avian influenza; HPAI H5N1; LPAI H7N9; Poultry data; Spatial epidemiology

Indexed keywords

COMMERCE; POPULATION STATISTICS; SURVEYS; VIRUSES;

AVIAN INFLUENZA; AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS; BOOSTED REGRESSION TREES; H5N1 AVIAN INFLUENZAS; HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZAS; HPAI H5N1; LPAI H7N9; SPATIAL EPIDEMIOLOGY;

TREES (MATHEMATICS);

AGRICULTURAL MARKET; AVIAN INFLUENZA; DISEASE SPREAD; EPIDEMIOLOGY; HEALTH RISK; PATHOGEN; POULTRY; VIRUS;

BEIJING [CHINA]; CHINA; HONG KONG; LIAONING; SHANGHAI; SHENYANG; TIANJIN;

ANAS; AVES; AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS; GALLUS GALLUS;

EID: 85002179403     PISSN: 14363240     EISSN: 14363259     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-016-1362-z     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Barbet-Massin M, Jiguet F, Albert CH, Thuiller W (2012) Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many? Methods Ecol Evol 3(2):327–338
2. Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ et al (2013) The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature 496:504–507. doi:10.1038/nature12060
3. Bicheron P, Defourny P, Brockmann C et al (2008) Globcover: products description and validation report. MEDIAS, Toulouse
4. Claes F, Kuznetsov D, Liechti R et al (2014) The EMPRES-i genetic module: a novel tool linking epidemiological outbreak information and genetic characteristics of influenza viruses. Database. doi:10.1093/database/bau008
5. Cowling BJ, Jin L, Lau EHY et al (2013) Comparative epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China: a population-based study of laboratory-confirmed cases. Lancet 382:129–137. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61171-X
6. Elith J, Leathwick JR, Hastie T (2008) A working guide to boosted regression trees. J Anim Ecol 77:802–813. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01390.x
7. Fang LQ, de Vlas SJ, Liang S et al (2008) Environmental factors contributing to the spread of H5N1 avian influenza in mainland China. PLoS ONE 3:e2268
8. Fang L-Q, Li X-L, Liu K et al (2013) Mapping spread and risk of avian influenza A (H7N9) in China. Sci Rep. doi:10.1038/srep02722
9. FAO (2009) FAO statistical database. http://faostat.fao.org/
10. Fournié G, Guitian FJ, Mangtani P, Ghani AC (2011) Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. J R Soc Interface 8:1079–1089. doi:10.1098/rsif.2010.0510
11. Fournié G, Guitian J, Desvaux S et al (2012) Identifying live bird markets with the potential to act as reservoirs of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus: a survey in northern Viet Nam and Cambodia. PLoS ONE 7:e37986. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0037986
12. Fournié G, Guitian J, Desvaux S et al (2013) Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:9177–9182. doi:10.1073/pnas.1220815110
13. Gaughan AE, Stevens FR, Huang Z et al (2016) Spatiotemporal patterns of population in mainland China, 1990 to 2010. Sci Data. doi:10.1038/sdata.2016.5
14. Gilbert M, Pfeiffer DU (2012) Risk factor modelling of the spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAIV) H5N1: a review. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 3:173–183. doi:10.1016/j.sste.2012.01.002
15. Gilbert M, Chaitaweesub P, Parakarnawongsa T et al (2006) Free-grazing ducks and highly pathogenic avian influenza, Thailand. Emerg Infect Dis 12:227–234
16. Gilbert M, Xiao X, Pfeiffer DU et al (2008) Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:4769–4774. doi:10.1073/pnas.0710581105
17. Gilbert M, Golding N, Zhou H et al (2014) Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia. Nat Commun. doi:10.1038/ncomms5116
18. Gilbert M, Conchedda G, Van Boeckel TP et al (2015) Income disparities and the global distribution of intensively farmed chicken and pigs. PLoS ONE 10:e0133381. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0133381
19. Hogerwerf L, Wallace RG, Ottaviani D et al (2010) Persistence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus defined by agro-ecological niche. EcoHealth 7:213–225. doi:10.1007/s10393-010-0324-z
20. Jones BA, Grace D, Kock R, Alonso S, Rushton J, Said MY, McKeeverc D, Mutuab F, Youngb J, McDermottb J, Pfeiffer DU (2013) Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensification and environmental change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110(21):8399–8404
21. Li KS, Guan Y, Wang J et al (2004) Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia. Nature 430:209–213
22. Li J, Rao Y, Sun Q et al (2015a) Identification of climate factors related to human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China. Sci Rep 5:18094. doi:10.1038/srep18094
23. Li X-L, Liu K, Yao H-W et al (2015b) Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Mainland China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 12:5026–5045. doi:10.3390/ijerph120505026
24. Li X-L, Yang Y, Sun Y et al (2015c) Risk distribution of human infections with avian influenza H7N9 and H5N1 virus in China. Sci Rep 5:18610. doi:10.1038/srep18610
25. Magalhães RJS, Ortiz-Pelaez A, Thi KL et al (2010) Associations between attributes of live poultry trade and HPAI H5N1 outbreaks: a descriptive and network analysis study in northern Vietnam. BMC Vet Res 6:10. doi:10.1186/1746-6148-6-10
26. Martin V, Pfeiffer DU, Zhou X et al (2011a) Spatial distribution and risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China. PLoS Pathog 7:e1001308. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1001308
27. Martin V, Zhou X, Marshall E et al (2011b) Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in South China: the value of social network analysis. Prev Vet Med 102:196–205. doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.07.007
28. Nicolas G, Robinson TP, Wint GRW et al (2016) Using random forest to improve the downscaling of global livestock census data. PLoS ONE 11:e0150424. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0150424
29. Pigott DM, Golding N, Mylne A et al (2014) Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa. eLife. doi:10.7554/eLife.04395
30. Prosser DJ, Wu J, Ellis EC et al (2011) Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 141(3–4):381–389
31. Qin Y, Horby PW, Tsang TK et al (2015) Differences in the epidemiology of human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) and A(H5N1) viruses infection. Clin Infect Dis 61:563–571. doi:10.1093/cid/civ345
32. Robinson T, Pozzi F (2011) Mapping supply and demand for animal-source food to 2030. Animal Production and Health Working Paper, No. 2. FAO, Rome
33. Robinson TP, Wint GRW, Conchedda G et al (2014) Mapping the global distribution of livestock. PLoS ONE 9:e96084. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096084
34. Van Boeckel TP, Thanapongtharm W, Robinson T et al (2012) Improving risk models for avian influenza: the role of intensive poultry farming and flooded land during the 2004 Thailand epidemic. PLoS ONE 7:e49528. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0049528
35. Wei YD, Ye X (2014) Urbanization, urban land expansion and environmental change in China. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 28(4):757–765
36. Wu P, Jiang H, Wu JT et al (2014) Poultry market closures and human infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus, China, 2013–14. Emerg Infect Dis 20:1891–1894. doi:10.3201/eid2011.140556
37. Xiao X, Boles S, Liu J et al (2005) Mapping paddy rice agriculture in southern China using multi-temporal MODIS images. Remote Sens Environ 95:480–492
38. Xiao X, Boles S, Frolking S et al (2006) Mapping paddy rice agriculture in South and Southeast Asia using multi-temporal MODIS images. Remote Sens Environ 100:95–113. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2005.10.004
39. Yu H, Wu JT, Cowling BJ et al (2013) Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study. Lancet. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61904-2
40. Yue W, Fan P, Wei YD, Qi J (2014) Economic development, urban expansion, and sustainable development in Shanghai. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 28(4):783–799