The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 114, Issue , 2017, Pages 254-280

  Frey, Carl Benedikt ^a   Osborne, Michael A ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Employment; Occupational choice; Skill demand; Technological change; Wage inequality

Indexed keywords

COMPENSATION (PERSONNEL); WAGES;

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENTS; GAUSSIAN PROCESSES; NOVEL METHODOLOGY; OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE; PRIMARY OBJECTIVE; SKILL DEMAND; TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE; WAGE INEQUALITIES;

EMPLOYMENT;

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT; EMPLOYMENT; LABOR MARKET; OCCUPATION; TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE; WAGE;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84999828423     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019     Document Type: Article

References (127)

1. Acemoglu, D., Technical change, inequality, and the labor market. J. Econ. Lit. 40:1 (2002), 7–72.
2. Acemoglu, D., Labor- and capital-augmenting technical change. J. Eur. Econ. Assoc. 1:1 (2003), 1–37.
3. Acemoglu, D., Autor, D., Skills, tasks and technologies: implications for employment and earnings. Handb. Labor Econ. 4 (2011), 1043–1171.
4. Acemoglu, D., Robinson, J., Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. 2012, Random House Digital, Inc.
5. Ackerman, E., Guizzo, E., 5 technologies that will shape the web. Spectr. IEEE 48:6 (2011), 40–45.
6. Aghion, P., Howitt, P., Growth and unemployment. Rev. Econ. Stud. 61:3 (1994), 477–494.
7. Allen, R.C., Engels' pause: technical change, capital accumulation, and inequality in the British industrial revolution. Explor. Econ. Hist. 46:4 (2009), 418–435.
8. Allen, R.C., The industrial revolution in miniature: the spinning Jenny in Britain, France, and India. J. Econ. Hist. 69:04 (2009), 901–927.
9. Allen, S.G., Technology and the wage structure. J. Labor Econ. 19:2 (2001), 440–483.
10. Armstrong, S., Sotala, K., How we're predicting AI - or failing to. Technical report., 2012, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University, Oxford.
11. Atack, J., Bateman, F., Margo, R.A., Skill intensity and rising wage dispersion in nineteenth-century American manufacturing. J. Econ. Hist. 64:01 (2004), 172–192.
12. Atack, J., Bateman, F., Margo, R.A., Steam power, establishment size, and labor productivity growth in nineteenth century American manufacturing. Explor. Econ. Hist. 45:2 (2008), 185–198.
13. Atack, J., Haines, M.R., Margo, R.A., Railroads and the rise of the factory: evidence for the United States, 1850–1870. NBER Working Paper No. 14410, 2008, National Bureau of Economic Research.
14. Atkinson, A.B., The Changing Distribution of Earnings in OECD Countries. 2008, Oxford University Press.
15. Autor, D., Dorn, D., The growth of low skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. Am. Econ. Rev. 103:5 (2013), 1553–1597.
16. Autor, D., Katz, L.F., Krueger, A.B., Computing inequality: have computers changed the labor market?. Q. J. Econ. 113:4 (1998), 1169–1213.
17. Autor, D., Levy, F., Murnane, R.J., The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration. Q. J. Econ. 118:4 (2003), 1279–1333.
18. Barlow, J., Ozaki, R., Building mass customised housing through innovation in the production system: lessons from Japan. Environ. Plan. A 37:1 (2005), 9–20.
19. Beaudry, P., Green, D.A., Sand, B.M., The great reversal in the demand for skill and cognitive tasks. Technical report, NBER Working Paper No. 18901, 2013, National Bureau of Economic Research.
20. Beniger, J.R., The Control Revolution: Technological and Economic Origins of the Information Society. 1986, Harvard University Press.
21. Blinder, A.S., How many US jobs might be offshorable?. World Econ., 10(2), 2009, 41.
22. Blinder, A.S., Krueger, A.B., Alternative measures of offshorability: a survey approach. J. Labor Econ. 31:2 (2013), S97–S128.
23. Bloss, R., Mobile hospital robots cure numerous logistic needs. Ind. Robot. Int. J. 38:6 (2011), 567–571.
24. Boden, M.A., The Creative Mind: Myths and Mechanisms. 2003, Routledge.
25. Braverman, H., Labor and Monopoly Capital: The Degradation of Work in the Twentieth Century. 1974, NYU Press.
26. Breslow, L., Pritchard, D.E., DeBoer, J., Stump, G.S., Ho, A.D., Seaton, D., Studying learning in the worldwide classroom: research into edX's first MOOC. Res. Pract. Assess. 8 (2013), 13–25.
27. Bresnahan, T.F., Computerisation and wage dispersion: an analytical reinterpretation. Econ. J. 109:456 (1999), 390–415.
28. Bresnahan, T.F., Brynjolfsson, E., Hitt, L.M., Information technology, workplace organization, and the demand for skilled labor: firm-level evidence. Q. J. Econ. 117:1 (2002), 339–376.
29. Bright, J.R., Automation and management. Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, 1958, Harvard University Boston.
30. Broekens, J., Heerink, M., Rosendal, H., Assistive social robots in elderly care: a review. Gerontechnology 8:2 (2009), 94–103.
31. Brown, E., Rodenberg, N., Amend, J., Mozeika, A., Steltz, E., Zakin, M.R., Lipson, H., Jaeger, H.M., Universal robotic gripper based on the jamming of granular material. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 107:44 (2010), 18809–18814.
32. Brown, M., Philips, P., Craft labor and mechanization in nineteenth-century American canning. J. Econ. Hist. 46:3 (1986), 743–756.
33. Brynjolfsson, E., McAfee, A., Race against the machine: how the digital revolution is accelerating innovation, driving productivity, and irreversibly transforming employment and the economy. 2011, Digital Frontier Press, Lexington, MA.
34. Campbell-Kelly, M., Origin of computing. Sci. Am. Mag. 301:3 (2009), 62–69.
35. Chandler, A.D., The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business. 1977, Harvard University Press.
36. Charles, K.K., Hurst, E., Notowidigdo, M.J., Manufacturing decline, housing booms, and non-employment. Technical report, NBER Working Paper No. 18949, 2013, National Bureau of Economic Research.
37. Churchill, W., Newman, P., Practice makes perfect? Managing and leveraging visual experiences for lifelong navigation. Robotics and Automation (ICRA), 2012 IEEE International Conference on, 2012, 4525–4532 IEEE.
38. Cisco. Cisco visual networking index. 2012 http://www.cisco.com/en/US/netsol/ns827/networking_solutions_sub_solution.html.
39. Clark, G., A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. 2008, Princeton University Press.
40. Clifford, G.D., Clifton, D., Wireless technology in disease management and medicine. Annu. Rev. Med. 63 (2012), 479–492.
41. Clifton, L., Clifton, D., Pimentel, M., Watkinson, P., Tarassenko, L., Gaussian processes for personalised e-health monitoring with wearable sensors. IEEE Trans. Biomed. Eng. 60 (2012), 193–197.
42. Cohn, J., The robot will see you now. The Atlantic, 2013 February 20.
43. Cortada, J.W., Before the Computer: IBM, NCR, Burroughs, and Remington Rand and the Industry They Created, 1865–1956. 2000, Princeton University Press.
44. Danziger, S., Levav, J., Avnaim-Pesso, L., Extraneous factors in judicial decisions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108:17 (2011), 6889–6892.
45. Davis, S.J., Haltiwanger, J., Gross job creation, gross job destruction, and employment reallocation. Q. J. Econ. 107:3 (1992), 819–863.
46. Duvenaud, D., Lloyd, J.R., Grosse, R., Tenenbaum, J.B., Ghahramani, Z., Structure discovery in nonparametric regression through compositional kernel search. Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Machine Learning, number arXiv:1206.1846 [stat.ML], Cambridge, UK, 2013.
47. Epstein, S.R., Craft guilds, apprenticeship, and technological change in preindustrial Europe. J. Econ. Hist. 58 (1998), 684–713.
48. Feinstein, C.H., Pessimism perpetuated: real wages and the standard of living in Britain during and after the industrial revolution. J. Econ. Hist. 58 (1998), 625–658.
49. Ge, S.S., Social robotics: integrating advances in engineering and computer science. The 4th Annual International Conference organized by the Electrical Engineering/Electronics, Computer, Telecommunication and Information Technology (ECTI) Association, Chiang Rai, Thailand, May 9â, vol. 12, 2007, 2007.
50. Goldin, C., Katz, L.F., The decline of non-competing groups: changes in the premium to education, 1890 to 1940. NBER Working Paper No. 5202, 1995, National Bureau of Economic Research.
51. Goldin, C., Katz, L.F., The origins of technology-skill complementarity. Q. J. Econ. 113:3 (1998), 693–732.
52. Goldin, C., Katz, L.F., The Race Between Education and Technology. 2009, Harvard University Press.
53. Goldin, C., Sokoloff, K., Women, children, and industrialization in the early republic: evidence from the manufacturing censuses. J. Econ. Hist. 42:4 (1982), 741–774.
54. Goos, M., Manning, A., Lousy and lovely jobs: the rising polarization of work in Britain. Rev. Econ. Stat. 89:1 (2007), 118–133.
55. Goos, M., Manning, A., Salomons, A., Job polarization in Europe. Am. Econ. Rev. 99:2 (2009), 58–63.
56. Gordon, R.J., Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds. NBER Working Paper No. 18315, 2012, National Bureau of Economic Research.
57. Gray, R., Taking technology to task: the skill content of technological change in early twentieth century united states. Explor. Econ. Hist., 2013.
58. Guizzo, E., Three engineers, hundreds of robots, one warehouse. IEEE Spectr., 2008, July 2 http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics-software/three-engineers-hundreds-of-robots-one-warehouse.
59. Guizzo, E., How Google's self-driving car works. IEEE Spectrum Online, 2011 October 18.
60. Habakkuk, H.J., American and British Technology in the Nineteenth Century: The Search for Labour-saving Inventions. 1962, University Press.
61. Hangal, S., Lam, M.S., Tracking down software bugs using automatic anomaly detection. Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Software Engineering, 2002, 291–301 ACM.
62. Hanson, R., Economic growth given machine intelligence. Technical Report, 2001, University of California, Berkeley.
63. Hoos, H.H., Programming by optimization. Commun. ACM 55:2 (2012), 70–80.
64. Hornbeck, R., Naidu, S., When the levee breaks: labor mobility and economic development in the American south. Am. Econ. Rev. 104:3 (2013), 963–990.
65. Hounshell, D., From the American System to Mass Production, 1800–1932: The Development of Manufacturing Technology in the United States. vol. 4, 1985, JHU Press.
66. Ingram, B.F., Neumann, G.R., Returns to skill. Labour Econ. 13:1 (2006), 35–59.
67. Jaimovich, N., Siu, H.E., The trend is the cycle: job polarization and jobless recoveries. Technical Report, NBER Working Paper No. 18334, 2012, National Bureau of Economic Research.
68. James, J.A., Skinner, J.S., The resolution of the labor-scarcity paradox. J. Econ. Hist. 45:3 (1985), 513–540.
69. Jensen, J.B., Kletzer, L.G., Tradable services: understanding the scope and impact of services offshoring [with comments and discussion]. Brookings Trade Forum, 2005, JSTOR, 75–133.
70. Jensen, J.B., Kletzer, L.G., Measuring tradable services and the task content of offshorable services jobs. Labor in the New Economy, 2010, University of Chicago Press, 309–335.
71. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., Tversky, A., Judgment Under Uncertainty. 1982, Cambridge University Press.
72. Katz, L.F., Margo, R.A., Technical change and the relative demand for skilled labor: the United States in historical perspective. Technical Report, NBER Working Paper No. 18752, 2013, National Bureau of Economic Research.
73. Katz, L.F., Murphy, K.M., Changes in relative wages, 1963–1987: supply and demand factors. Q. J. Econ. 107:1 (1992), 35–78.
74. Kellenbenz, H., Technology in the age of the scientific revolution, 1500–1700. Fontana Econ. Hist. Eur. 2 (1974), 177–272.
75. Keynes, J.M., Economic possibilities for our grandchildren (1930). Essays in persuasion, 1933, 358–373.
76. Kim, S., Whitehead, E.J., Zhang, Y., Classifying software changes: clean or buggy?. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 34:2 (2008), 181–196.
77. King, S., Bannister, P., Clifton, D., Tarassenko, L., Probabilistic approach to the condition monitoring of aerospace engines. Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. Part G J. Aerosp. Eng. 223:5 (2009), 533–541.
78. Krueger, A.B., How computers have changed the wage structure: evidence from microdata, 1984–1989. Q. J. Econ. 108:1 (1993), 33–60.
79. Levy, F., Murnane, R.J., The New Division of Labor: How Computers are Creating the Next Job Market. 2004, Princeton University Press.
80. Lindert, P.H., Williamson, J.G., Reinterpreting Britain's social tables, 1688–1913. Explor. Econ. Hist. 20:1 (1983), 94–109.
81. Linner, T., Bock, T., Evolution of large-scale industrialisation and service innovation in Japanese prefabrication industry. Constr. Innov. Inf. Process. Manag. 12:2 (2012), 156–178.
82. Livshits, B., Zimmermann, T., Dynamine: finding common error patterns by mining software revision histories. ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes, vol. 30, 2005, ACM, 296–305.
83. Louis, P., Paterson, G., Biased technical change, scale, and factor substitution in American industry, 1850–1919. J. Econ. Hist., 46(1), 1986.
84. Lucas, R.E., Prescott, E.C., Equilibrium search and unemployment. J. Econ. Theory 7:2 (1974), 188–209.
85. CAA. Roadside assistance customers benefit from smart support during peak and after hours. Technical Report, SmartAction Case Study of Canadian Automobile Association Saskatchewan, 2012.
86. IFR. 68 robots perform farmer's work. Technical Report, Case study of Fanuc Robotics Europe S.A, 2012, International Federation of Robotics September 2012.
87. IFR. World robotics 2012. Technical Report, 2012, International Federation of Robotics August 30.
88. MGI. An economy that works: job creation and America's future. Technical Report, 2011, McKinsey Global Institute.
89. MGI. Disruptive technologies: advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy. Technical Report, 2013, McKinsey Global Institute.
90. Mantoux, P., The Industrial Revolution in the Eighteenth Century: An Outline of the Beginnings of the Modern Factory System in England. 2006, Taylor & Francis US.
91. Margo, R.A., Introduction to wages and labor markets in the United States, 1820–1860. Wages and Labor Markets in the United States, 1820–1860, 2000, University of Chicago Press, 1–5.
92. Markoff, J., Armies of expensive lawyers replaced by cheaper software. N.Y. Times, 2011 March 4.
93. Markoff, J., Skilled work, without the worker. N.Y. Times, 2012 August 18.
94. Mathibela, B., Osborne, M.A., Posner, I., Newman, P., Can priors be trusted? Learning to anticipate roadworks. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2012 15th International IEEE Conference on, 2012, IEEE, 927–932.
95. Michaels, G., Rauch, F., Redding, S.J., Task specialization in US cities from 1880–2000. Technical Report,NBER Working Paper No. 18715, 2013, National Bureau of Economic Research.
96. Mims, C., AI that picks stocks better than the pros. MIT Technol. Rev., 2010 June 10.
97. Minka, T.P., Expectation propagation for approximate Bayesian inference. Proceedings of the Seventeenth conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2001, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 362–369.
98. Mokyr, J., The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress. 1990, Oxford University Press.
99. Mokyr, J., The political economy of technological change. Technol. Revolutions Eur., 1998, 39–64.
100. Murphy, K.M., Riddell, W.C., Romer, P.M., Wages, skills, and technology in the United States and Canada. Technical Report, NBER Working Paper No. 6638, 1998, National Bureau of Economic Research.
101. Murphy, K.P., Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. 2012, The MIT Press.
102. Nef, J.U., Coal mining and utilization. Hist. Technol. 3 (1957), 72–88.
103. Nordhaus, W.D., Two centuries of productivity growth in computing. J. Econ. Hist., 67(1), 2007, 128.
104. North, D.C., Weingast, B.R., Constitutions and commitment: the evolution of institutions governing public choice in seventeenth-century England. J. Econ. Hist. 49:04 (1989), 803–832.
105. Ogilvie, S., Guilds, efficiency, and social capital: evidence from German proto-industry. Econ. Hist. Rev. 57:2 (2004), 286–333.
106. Oldenski, L., Offshoring and the Polarization of the US Labor Market. Technical Report, Mimeo, Georgetown University. 2012.
107. Osborne, M.A., Garnett, R., Swersky, K., de Freitas, N., Prediction and fault detection of environmental signals with uncharacterised faults. Twenty-Sixth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-12), 2012.
108. Phua, C., Lee, V., Smith, K., Gayler, R., A comprehensive survey of data mining-based fraud detection research. 2010 arXiv preprint arXiv:1009.6119.
109. Picard, R.W., Affective computing: from laughter to IEEE. IEEE Trans. Affect. Comput. 1:1 (2010), 11–17.
110. Pissarides, C.A., Equilibrium Unemployment Theory. 2000, MIT press.
111. Plötz, T., Fink, G.A., Markov models for offline handwriting recognition: a survey. Int. J. Doc. Anal. Recognit. (IJDAR) 12:4 (2009), 269–298.
112. Rasmussen, C.E., Nickisch, H., Gaussian processes for machine learning (GPML) toolbox. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11 (2010), 3011–3015.
113. Rasmussen, C.E., Williams, C.K.I., Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. 2006, MIT Press.
114. Ricardo, D., The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. 1819, World Scientific.
115. Robotics-VO. A Roadmap for US Robotics. From Internet to Robotics. 2013, 2013, Robotics in the United States of America.
116. Roy, A.D., Some thoughts on the distribution of earnings. Oxf. Econ. Pap. 3:2 (1951), 135–146.
117. Saha, B., Goebel, K., Poll, S., Christophersen, J., An integrated approach to battery health monitoring using Bayesian regression and state estimation. Autotestcon, 2007 IEEE, 2007, IEEE, 646–653.
118. Sandberg, A., Bostrom, N., Whole brain emulation: a roadmap, technical report 2008-3. Technical Report, 2008, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University.
119. Scherer, K.R., Bänziger, T., Roesch, E.B., Blueprint for Affective Computing: A Sourcebook and Manual. 2010, Oxford University Press.
120. Schumpeter, J.A., Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. 1962, Harper & Row New York.
121. Simonite, T., As data floods in, massive open online courses evolve. MIT Technol. Rev., 2013, June 5 http://www.technologyreview.com/news/515396/as-data-floods-in-massive-open-online-courses-evolve.
122. Tanner, A., Google seeks world of instant translations. Reuters, 2007 http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/03/28/us-google-translate-id\usN1921881520070328 March 27.
123. UC Berkeley School of Information. How much information? 2003. 2003 http://www2.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003.
124. US Department of Labor. Thirteenth Annual Report of the Commissioner of Labor. 1899, Two Volumes, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
125. Veres, S.M., Molnar, L., Lincoln, N.K., Morice, C.P., Autonomous vehicle control systems - a review of decision making. Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. Part I J. Syst. Control Eng. 225:2 (2011), 155–195.
126. Williamson, J.G., Lindert, P.H., American Inequality: A Macroeconomic History. Vol. 53, 1980, Academic Press, New York.
127. Woolf, B.P., Building Intelligent Interactive Tutors: Student-centered Strategies for Revolutionizing e-Learning. 2010, Morgan Kaufmann.