The election as horse race: Betting and the election

How Ireland Voted 2007: The Full Story of Ireland's General Election

Volumn , Issue , 2007, Pages 148-166

  Gallagher, Michael ^a  

^a TRINITY COLLEGE DUBLIN   (Ireland)

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[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84999339097     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1057/9780230597990     Document Type: Chapter

References (21)

1. Leighton Vaughan Williams (ed.), Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), especially chapters 2, 3, 7 and 18.
2. Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf, 'Historical presidential betting markets', Journal of Economic Perspectives 18:2 (2004), pp. 127-42, at p. 128.
3. Paddy Waldron, 'Online gambling', The Investor 3:9 (2005).
4. Michael Gallagher and Richard Sinnott (eds), How Ireland Voted 1989 (Galway: PSAI Press, 1990).
5. Georgios Tziralis and Ilias Tatsiopoulos, 'Prediction markets: an extended literature review', Journal of Prediction Markets 1:1 (2007), pp. 75-91
6. Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz, 'Prediction markets in theory and practice', in Lawrence E. Blume and Steven N. Durlauf (eds), New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edn (London: Palgrave Macmillan, forthcoming 2008).
7. Geoffrey Clark, Betting on Lives: The Culture of Life Insurance in England 1695-1775 (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1999).
8. S. G. Kou and Michael E. Sobel, 'Forecasting the vote: a theoretical comparison of election markets and public opinion polls', Political Analysis 12:3 (2004), pp. 277-95.
9. www.biz.uiowa.edu
10. Ray C. Fair, Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Presidential Elections, Discussion paper 1579 (New Haven, CT: Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 2006).
11. Martin Rosenbaum, 'Betting and the 1997 British general election', Politics 19:1 (1999), pp. 9-14
12. Leighton Vaughan Williams, 'The betting markets', Significance 2:2 (2005), pp. 50-3.
13. Peter Bohm and Joakim Sonnegard, 'Political stock markets and unreliable polls', Scandinavian Journal of Economics 101:2 (1999), pp. 205-22.
14. Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh, Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections:lessons from 2001, Research paper 1723 (Stanford CA: Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, 2001)
15. Mike Smithson, The Political Punter: How to Make Money Betting on Politics (Petersfield, Hampshire: Harriman House, 2007), pp. 106-8, 130.
16. Gail McElroy and Michael Marsh, 'Why the opinion polls got it wrong in 2002', pp. 159-76
17. Michael Cain, David Law and David Peel, 'The favourite-longshot bias: bookmaker margins and insider trading in a variety of betting markets', Bulletin of Economic Research 55:3 (2003), pp. 263-73
18. Hyun Song Shin, 'Measuring the incidence of insider trading in a market for statecontingent claims', Economic Journal 103:420 (1993), pp. 1141-53.
19. G. Bingham Powell Jr, Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions (New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2000), pp. 69-88.
20. Pat Leahy, 'Fianna Fáil pulls off a coup with bookies', Sunday Business Post, 3 June 2007
21. Marie O'Halloran, 'FG's high-risk strategy in Louth', Irish Times, 11 May 2007.