메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 83, Issue 4, 2016, Pages 1711-1740

Measuring uncertainty about long-run predictions

Author keywords

Least favourable distribution; Low frequency; Prediction interval; Spectral analysis

Indexed keywords


EID: 84995676733     PISSN: 00346527     EISSN: 1467937X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdw003     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (48)

References (40)
  • 1
    • 84977341011 scopus 로고
    • The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence
    • BALKE, N. S. and GORDON, R. J. (1989), "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence". Journal of Political Economy, 94, 38-92.
    • (1989) Journal of Political Economy , vol.94 , pp. 38-92
    • Balke, N.S.1    Gordon, R.J.2
  • 2
    • 33646382246 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century
    • BARRO, R. J. (2006), "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century". The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, 823-866.
    • (2006) The Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.121 , pp. 823-866
    • Barro, R.J.1
  • 4
    • 0002252076 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying
    • CAMPBELL, J. Y. and VICEIRA, L. M. (1999), "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying". Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 433-495.
    • (1999) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.114 , pp. 433-495
    • Campbell, J.Y.1    Viceira, L.M.2
  • 5
    • 0003122168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation and Comparison of Multiple Change-Point Models
    • CHIB, S. (1998), "Estimation and Comparison of Multiple Change-Point Models". Journal of Econometrics, 75, 221-241.
    • (1998) Journal of Econometrics , vol.75 , pp. 221-241
    • Chib, S.1
  • 8
    • 0041059062 scopus 로고
    • A Long Memory Property of Stock Market Returns and a New Model
    • DING, Z., GRANGER, C. W. J. and ENGLE, R. F. (1993), "A Long Memory Property of Stock Market Returns and a New Model". Journal of Empirical Finance, 1, 83-116.
    • (1993) Journal of Empirical Finance , vol.1 , pp. 83-116
    • Ding, Z.1    Granger, C.W.J.2    Engle, R.F.3
  • 9
    • 14844365059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inference and Forecasting for ARFIMA Models With an Application to U.S. and U.K. Inflation
    • DOORNIK, J. A. and OOMS, M. (2004), "Inference and Forecasting for ARFIMA Models With an Application to U.S. and U.K. Inflation". Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 8, 1-23.
    • (2004) Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics , vol.8 , pp. 1-23
    • Doornik, J.A.1    Ooms, M.2
  • 10
    • 67649321633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting with Trending Data
    • Elliott, C.W. J. G. G. and Timmerman A. (eds) (Amsterdam: North-Holland)
    • ELLIOTT, G. (2006), "Forecasting with Trending Data". in Elliott, C.W. J. G. G. and Timmerman A. (eds) Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Vol. 1, (Amsterdam: North-Holland), 555-604.
    • (2006) Handbook of Economic Forecasting , vol.1 , pp. 555-604
    • Elliott, G.1
  • 11
    • 84961289408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter is Present Under the Null Hypothesis
    • ELLIOTT, G., MüLLER U. K., and WATSON, M. W. (2015), "Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter is Present Under the Null Hypothesis". Econometrica, 83, 771-811.
    • (2015) Econometrica , vol.83 , pp. 771-811
    • Elliott, G.1    Müller, U.K.2    Watson, M.W.3
  • 15
    • 0033448703 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Behavior of Forecast Errors from a Nearly Integrated AR(1) Model as Both Sample Size and Forecast Horizon Become Large
    • KEMP, G. C. R. (1999), "The Behavior of Forecast Errors from a Nearly Integrated AR(1) Model as Both Sample Size and Forecast Horizon Become Large". Econometric Theory, 15, 238-256.
    • (1999) Econometric Theory , vol.15 , pp. 238-256
    • Kemp, G.C.R.1
  • 16
    • 25644437026 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ANewAsymptotic Theory for Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests
    • KIEFER, N. and VOGELSANG, T. J. (2005), "ANewAsymptotic Theory for Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests". Econometric Theory, 21, 1130-1164.
    • (2005) Econometric Theory , vol.21 , pp. 1130-1164
    • Kiefer, N.1    Vogelsang, T.J.2
  • 17
    • 0000328680 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses
    • KIEFER, N. M., VOGELSANG T. J., and BUNZEL, H. (2000), "Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses". Econometrica, 68, 695-714.
    • (2000) Econometrica , vol.68 , pp. 695-714
    • Kiefer, N.M.1    Vogelsang, T.J.2    Bunzel, H.3
  • 18
    • 84885853205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions
    • KITSUL, Y. and WRIGHT, J. H. (2013), "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions". Journal of Financial Economics, 110, 696-711.
    • (2013) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.110 , pp. 696-711
    • Kitsul, Y.1    Wright, J.H.2
  • 19
    • 79960958992 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "The Outlook for Population Growth"
    • LEE, R. (2011): "The Outlook for Population Growth". Science, 333, 569-573.
    • (2011) Science , vol.333 , pp. 569-573
    • Lee, R.1
  • 22
    • 84912531601 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • HAC Corrections for Strongly Autocorrelated Time Series
    • MüLLER, U. K. (2014), "HAC Corrections for Strongly Autocorrelated Time Series". Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 32, 311-322.
    • (2014) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.32 , pp. 311-322
    • Müller, U.K.1
  • 24
    • 51349130626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability
    • MüLLER, U. K. and WATSON, M. W. (2013), "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability". Econometrica, 76, 979-1016.
    • (2013) Econometrica , vol.76 , pp. 979-1016
    • Müller, U.K.1    Watson, M.W.2
  • 25
    • 84876105838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Low-Frequency Robust CointegrationTesting
    • MüLLER, U. K. andWATSON, M.W. (2013), "Low-Frequency Robust CointegrationTesting". Journal of Econometrics, 174, 66-81.
    • (2013) Journal of Econometrics , vol.174 , pp. 66-81
    • Müller, U.K.1    Watson, M.W.2
  • 26
    • 84859112990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?"
    • PASTOR, L. and STAMBAUGH, R. F. (2012), "Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?". Journal of Finance, LXVII, 431-477.
    • (2012) Journal of Finance , vol.47 , pp. 431-477
    • Pastor, L.1    Stambaugh, R.F.2
  • 27
    • 33749045516 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks
    • PESARAN, M. H., PETTENUZZO, D. and TIMMERMANN, A. (2006), "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks". Review of Economic Studies, 73, 1057-1084.
    • (2006) Review of Economic Studies , vol.73 , pp. 1057-1084
    • Pesaran, M.H.1    Pettenuzzo, D.2    Timmermann, A.3
  • 28
    • 33846042144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for Multivariate Impulse Response Functions at Long Horizons
    • PESAVENTO, E. and ROSSI, B. (2006), "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for Multivariate Impulse Response Functions at Long Horizons". Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, 1135-1155.
    • (2006) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.21 , pp. 1135-1155
    • Pesavento, E.1    Rossi, B.2
  • 29
    • 0002085449 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impulse Response and Forecast ErrorVarianceAsymptotics in NonstationaryVARs
    • PHILLIPS, P. C. B. (1998), "Impulse Response and Forecast ErrorVarianceAsymptotics in NonstationaryVARs". Journal of Econometrics, 83, 21-56.
    • (1998) Journal of Econometrics , vol.83 , pp. 21-56
    • Phillips, P.C.B.1
  • 31
    • 45549121696 scopus 로고
    • The Equity Risk Premium a Solution
    • RIETZ, T. A. (1988), "The Equity Risk Premium a Solution". Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 117-131.
    • (1988) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.22 , pp. 117-131
    • Rietz, T.A.1
  • 32
    • 85016249703 scopus 로고
    • The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908
    • ROMER, C. (1989), "The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908". Journal of Political Economy, 97, 1-37.
    • (1989) Journal of Political Economy , vol.97 , pp. 1-37
    • Romer, C.1
  • 34
    • 17644393590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • VAR, Error Correction and Pretest Forecasts at Long Horizons
    • STOCK, J. H. (1996), "VAR, Error Correction and Pretest Forecasts at Long Horizons". Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58, 685-701.
    • (1996) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , vol.58 , pp. 685-701
    • Stock, J.H.1
  • 35
  • 36
    • 33846109529 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
    • Gertler M. and Rogoff K. S. (eds), (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press)
    • STOCK, J. H. and WATSON, M. W. (2002), "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?". in Gertler M. and Rogoff K. S. (eds), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press) 159-218.
    • (2002) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002 , pp. 159-218
    • Stock, J.H.1    Watson, M.W.2
  • 39
    • 0028595842 scopus 로고
    • Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy
    • WATSON, M.W. (1994), "Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy". American Economic Review, 84, 24-46.
    • (1994) American Economic Review , vol.84 , pp. 24-46
    • Watson, M.W.1
  • 40
    • 84901432666 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession
    • WATSON, M. W. (2014), "Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession". American Economic Review, 104, 31-36.
    • (2014) American Economic Review , vol.104 , pp. 31-36
    • Watson, M.W.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.