An assessment of future southern hemisphere blocking using CMIP5 projections from four GCMs

Journal of Climate

Volumn 29, Issue 21, 2016, Pages 7599-7611

  Parsons, Simon ^a   Renwicka, James A ^a,b   McDonald, Adrian J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY   (New Zealand)

^b VICTORIA UNIVERSITY OF WELLINGTON   (New Zealand)

Author keywords

Antarctic Oscillation; Blocking; General circulation models

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY;

ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION; BLOCKING; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HISTORICAL SIMULATION; NEGATIVE CORRELATION; SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS; SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ARCTIC OSCILLATION; ASSESSMENT METHOD; ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CLIMATE MODELING; CMIP; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (SOUTH);

EID: 84995537869     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0754.1     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Arblaster, J. M., and G. A. Meehl, 2006: Contributions of external forcings to southern annular mode trends. J. Climate, 19, 2896-2905, doi:10.1175/JCLI3774.1.
2. Arblaster, J. M., G. A. Meehl, and D. J. Karoly, 2011: Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02701, doi:10.1029/2010GL045384.
3. Barnes, E., J. Slingo, and T. Woollings, 2012: A methodology for the comparison of blocking climatologies across indices, models and climate scenarios. Climate Dyn., 38, 2467-2481, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1243-6.
4. Barriopedro, D., R. García-Herrera, J. F. González-Rouco, and R. M. Trigo, 2010a: Application of blocking diagnosis methods to general circulation models. Part II: Model simulations. Climate Dyn., 35, 1393-1409, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0766-6.
5. Barriopedro, D., R. García-Herrera, and R. M. Trigo, 2010b: Application of blocking diagnosis methods to general circulation models. Part I: A novel detection scheme. Climate Dyn., 35, 1373-1391, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0767-5.
6. Berrisford, P., B. J. Hoskins, and E. Tyrlis, 2007: Blocking and Rossby wave breaking on the dynamical tropopause in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2881-2898, doi:10.1175/JAS3984.1.
7. Bi, D., and Coauthors, 2013: The ACCESS coupled model: Description, control climate and evaluation. Aust. Meteor. Oceanogr. J., 63, 9-32.
8. Bracegirdle, T. J., and G. J. Marshall, 2012: The reliability of Antarctic tropospheric pressure and temperature in the latest global reanalyses. J. Climate, 25, 7138-7146, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00685.1.
9. Bromwich, D. H., J. P. Nicolas, and A. J. Monaghan, 2011: An assessment of precipitation changes over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean since 1989 in contemporary global reanalyses. J. Climate, 24, 4189-4209, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4074.1.
10. Christensen, J., and Coauthors, 2013: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1217-1308. [Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter14_FINAL.pdf.]
11. Collins, W. J., and Coauthors, 2011: Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model-HadGEM2. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051-1075, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011.
12. Cowan, T., P. van Rensch, A. Purich, and W. Cai, 2013: The association of tropical and extratropical climate modes to atmospheric blocking across southeastern Australia. J. Climate, 26, 7555-7569, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00781.1.
13. Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
14. Dole, R. M., and N. D. Gordon, 1983: Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation: Geographical distribution and regional persistence characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1567-1586, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1567:PAOTEN>2.0.CO;2.
15. Dunn-Sigouin, E., and S.-W. Son, 2013: Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1179-1188, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50143.
16. Gent, P. R., and Coauthors, 2011: The Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 24, 4973-4991, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1.
17. Gong, D., and S. Wang, 1999: Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 459-462, doi:10.1029/1999GL900003.
18. Kiladis, G. N., and K. C. Mo, 1998: Interannual and interseasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, Meteor. Monogr., No. 27, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 307-336.
19. Liu, Q., 1994: On the definition and persistence of blocking. Tellus, 46A, 286-298, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v46i3.15479.
20. Masato, G., B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings, 2013: Winter and summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26, 7044-7059, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1.
21. Matsueda, M., H. Endo, and R. Mizuta, 2009: Future change in Southern Hemisphere summertime and wintertime atmospheric blockings simulated using a 20-km-mesh AGCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02803, doi:10.1029/2009GL041758.
22. Mendes, M. C. D., and I. F. A. Cavalcanti, 2014: The relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation and blocking events over the South Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 529-544, doi:10.1002/joc.3729.
23. Mendes, M. C. D., R. M. Trigo, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, and C. C. DaCamara, 2008: Blocking episodes in the Southern Hemisphere: Impact on the climate of adjacent continental areas. Pure Appl. Geophys., 165, 1941-1962, doi:10.1007/s00024-008-0409-4.
24. Moss, R. H., and Coauthors, 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747-756, doi:10.1038/nature08823.
25. Oliveira, F. N. M., L. M. V. Carvalho, and T. Ambrizzi, 2013: A new climatology for Southern Hemisphere blockings in the winter and the combined effect of ENSO and SAM phases. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1676-1692, doi:10.1002/joc.3795.
26. Palmer, T. N., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. J. Rodwell, 2008: Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 459-470, doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459.
27. Pezza, A., P. van Rensch, and W. Cai, 2011: Severe heat waves in Southern Australia: Synoptic climatology and large scale connections. Climate Dyn., 38, 209-224, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1016-2.
28. Renwick, J. A., 2005: Persistent positive anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 977-988, doi:10.1175/MWR2900.1.
29. Renwick, J. A., and J. M. Wallace, 1996: Relationships between North Pacific wintertime blocking, El Niño, and the PNA pattern. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2071-2076, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2071:RBNPWB>2.0.CO;2.
30. Rex, D. F., 1950a: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effect upon regional climate: I. An aerological study of blocking action. Tellus, 2A, 196-211, doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00331.x.
31. Rex, D. F., 1950b: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effect upon regional climate: I. The climatology of blocking action. Tellus, 2A, 275-301, doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00339.x.
32. Sinclair, M. R., 1996: A climatology of anticyclones and blocking for the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 245-264, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<0245:ACOAAB>2.0.CO;2.
33. Son, S. W., and Coauthors, 2010: Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M07, doi:10.1029/2010JD014271.
34. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
35. Thompson, D. W. J., S. Solomon, P. J. Kushner, M. H. England, K. M. Grise, and D. J. Karoly, 2011: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change. Nat. Geosci., 4, 741-749, doi:10.1038/ngeo1296.
36. Tibaldi, S., E. Tosi, A. Navarra, and L. Pedulli, 1994: Northern and Southern Hemisphere seasonal variability of blocking frequency and predictability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1971-2003, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<1971:NASHSV>2.0.CO;2.
37. Trenberth, K. F., and K. C. Mo, 1985: Blocking in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 3-21, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0003:BITSH>2.0.CO;2.
38. Watanabe, M., and Coauthors, 2010: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 23, 6312-6335, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1.
39. Wiedenmann, J. M., A. R. Lupo, I. I. Mokhov, and E. A. Tikhonova, 2002: The climatology of blocking anticyclones for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres: Block intensity as a diagnostic. J. Climate, 15, 3459-3473, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3459:TCOBAF>2.0.CO;2.
40. Yamazaki, A., and H. Itoh, 2009: Selective absorption mechanism for the maintenance of blocking. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05803, doi:10.1029/2008GL036770.