The future of scenarios: challenges and opportunities

Strategy & Leadership

Volumn 31, Issue 2, 2003, Pages 16-24

  Millett, Stephen M ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

Analysis; Return on investment; Scenario planning; Teambuilding

Indexed keywords

EID: 84993055809     PISSN: 10878572     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1108/10878570310698089     Document Type: Article

References (4)

1. Herman Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable. New York: Avon Books, 1962, pp. 41-61 and 150-164. Herman Kahn, The Year 2000. New York, Macmillan, 1967, pp. 262-64. When Kahn left RAND and created the Hudson Institute in New York, he had the opportunity in the late 1960s to exchange ideas about scenarios for business planning with Ian Wilson at GE and Pierre Wack of Royal Dutch Shell.
2. Environmental Task Force of the Corporate Executive Staff, General Electric, “Four Alternative World/US Scenarios 1971-1980”, report dated 21 January, 1971; Ian Wilson, “Scenarios”, in Jib Fowles (Ed.), Handbook of Futures Research, Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1978, pp. 225-47; Pierre Wack, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead”, Harvard Business Review. September-October 1985, pp. 73-89; Pierre Wack, “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids”, Harvard Business Review, November-December 1985, pp. 130-50; William R. Huss and Edward J. Honton, “Scenario Planning - What Style Should You Use?”, Long Range Planning, Vol. 20, August 1987, pp. 21-9. Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, New York, Doubleday/Currency Books, 1996; Lawrence Wilkinson, “How to Build Scenarios”, Wired Scenarios: 1.01, pp. 74-81. This author gathered additional information in conversations (e-mail and face to face) with Ian Wilson and Peter Schwartz in San Francisco, April 2002.
3. John G. Stover and Theodore J. Gordon, “Cross-Impact Analysis”, in Fowles, Handbook of Futures Research, pp. 301-28; Huss and Honton, “Scenario Planning - What Style Should You Use?”. Also see Stephen M. Millett and Edward J. Honton, A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods, Columbus, OH: Battelle Press, 1991.
4. “Probabilities. Help or Hindrance in Scenario Planning?”, The Deeper News, Global Business Network, summer 1991; Thomas Mandel and Ian Wilson, “How Companies Use Scenarios: Practices and Prescriptions”, Report No. 822, SRI International, spring 1993; Michel Godot, Creating Futures. Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool, London: Economica, 2001, pp. 163-80