Historical and future relations between large storms and droughts in California

San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science

Volumn 14, Issue 2, 2016, Pages

  Dettinger, Michael D ^a  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

Drought; Effects of global change; Extreme events; Hydroclimatology of California; Storms

Indexed keywords

EID: 84992727043     PISSN: None     EISSN: 15462366     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.15447/sfews.2016v14iss2art1     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Abatzoglou JT, Redmond KT, Edwards LM. 2009. Classification of regional climate variability in the state of California. J Applied Meteor Climatol 48:1527-1541. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2062.1
2. Ault TR, St. George S. 2010. The magnitude of decadal and multidecadal variability in North American precipitation. J Clim 23:842-850. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1175/2009JCLI3013.1
3. Benjamin JR, Cornell C. 1970. Probability, statistics, and decision for civil engineers. New York (NY): McGraw-Hill. 684 p
4. Brekke LD, Maurer EP, Anderson J, Dettinger MD, Townsley ES, Harrison A, Pruitt T. 2009. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change. Water Resour Res 45:W04411. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1029/2008WR006941
5. Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Dettinger MD, Tyree M, Hayhoe K. 2008. Climate change scenarios for the California region. Clim Change 87(Suppl 1):S21-S42, doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1007/s10584-007-9377-6
6. Cayan DR, Redmond KT, Riddle LG. 1999. ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States. J Clim 12:2881-2893. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2881:EAHEIT>2.0.CO;2
7. [CCTAG] Climate Change Technical Advisory Group. 2015. Perspectives and guidance for climate change analysis. Sacramento (CA): California Department of Water Resources, Statewide Integrated Regional Management Division. 142 p. [accessed 2016 June 21]. http://www. water.ca.gov/climatechange/docs/2015/Perspectives_Guidance:Climate_Change_Analysis.pdf
8. Dettinger MD 2006. A component-resampling approach for estimating probability distributions from small forecast ensembles. Clim Change 76:149-168. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1007/s10584-005-9001-6
9. Dettinger MD. 2013. Atmospheric rivers as drought busters on the U.S. west coast. J Hydromet 14:1721-1732. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-02.1
10. Dettinger MD, Cayan DR. 2014. Drought and the California Delta-a matter of extremes. San Franc Estuary Watershed Sci 12(2). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2014v12iss2art4
11. Dettinger MD, Ingram L. 2013. The coming megafloods. Scientific American 308:64-71. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1038/scientificamerican0113-64
12. Dettinger MD, Ralph FM, Das T, Neiman P, Cayan D. 2011. Atmospheric rivers, floods, and the water resources of California. Water 3:455-478. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.3390/w3020445
13. Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, Bracannot P, Chou SC, Collins W, Cox P, Driouech F, Emori S, Eyring V, Forest C, Gleckler P, Guilyardi E, Jakob C, Kattsov V, Reason C, Rummukainen M. 2013. Evaluation of climate models. In: Stocker TF, Quin D, Plattner GK, Tignor MMB, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, editors. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press. p. 741-866
14. Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C. 2008. Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res-Atmos 113:D06104. 20 p. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1029/2007JD008972
15. Granger CWJ. 1964. Spectral analysis of economic time series. Princeton (NJ): Princeton University Press. 299 p
16. Guan B, Molotch NP, Waliser DE, Fetzer EF, Neiman PJ. 2010. Extreme snowfall events linked to atmospheric rivers and surface air temperature via satellite measurements. Geophys Res Lett 37:L20401. 6 p. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044696
17. Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP. 2005. Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental United States. J Hydromet 6:330-336. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM420.1
18. [IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2013. Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, editors. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press. 29 p
19. Kelley R. 1998. Battling the inland sea-floods, public policy and the Sacramento Valley. Berkeley (CA): University of California Press. 420 p
20. Mantua N J, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069-1079. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2. 0.CO;2
21. McCabe GJ, Dettinger MD. 2002. Primary modes and predictability of year-to-year snowpack variations in the western United States from teleconnections with Pacific Ocean climate. J Hydromet 3:13-25. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0013:PMAPOY>2.0.CO;2
22. Meko DM, Woodhouse CA, Touchan R. 2014. Klamath-San Joaquin-Sacramento hydroclimatic reconstructions from tree rings. Report to California DWR 4600008850. 117 p. [accessed 2016 Jun 21]. http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/docs/tree_ring_report_for_web.pdf
23. National Weather Service. 1989. Cooperative station observations. NWS observing handbook no. 2. Silver Spring (MD): National Weather Service, NOAA. 83 p. [accessed 2016 Jun 21]. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/Publications/coophandbook2.pdf
24. Neiman PJ, Ralph FM, Wick GA, Lundquist JD, Dettinger MD. 2008. Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West Coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations. J Hydromet 9:22-47. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM855.1
25. Neiman PJ, Schick LJ, Ralph FM, Hughes M, Wick GA. 2011. Flooding in western Washington-the connection to atmospheric rivers. J Hydromet 12:1337-1358 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1358.1
26. Pierce D, Cayan D, Das T, Maurer E, Miller N, Bao Y, Kanamitsu M, Yoshimura K, Snyder M, Sloan L, Franco G, Tyree M. 2013. The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California. J Clim 26:5879-5896. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00766.1
27. Polade SD, Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Gershunov A, Dettinger MD. 2014. The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Nature Sci Reports 4:4364. 8 p. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1038/srep04364
28. Ralph FM, Dettinger MD. 2012. Historical and national perspectives on extreme west-coast precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers during December 2010. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:783-790. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00188.1
29. Ralph FM, Dettinger MD, White A, Reynolds D, Cayan D, Schneider T, Cifelli R, Redmond K, Anderson M, Gehrke F, Jones J, Mahoney K, Johnson L, Gutman S, Chandrasekar V, Lundquist J, Molotch N, Brekke L, Pulwarty R, Horel J, Schick L, Edman A, Mote P, Abatzaglou J, Pierce R, Wick G. 2014. A vision of future observations for western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding. J Contemp Water Resour Res Ed 153:16-32. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2014.03176.x
30. Ralph, FM, Neiman PJ, Wick G, Gutman S, Dettinger M, Cayan D, White AB. 2006. Flooding on California's Russian River-role of atmospheric rivers. Geophys Res Lett 33:L13801. 5 p. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1029/2006GL026689
31. Redmond KT, Koch RW. 1991. Surface climate and streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices. Water Resour Res 27:2381-2399. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1029/91WR00690
32. Rupp DE, Abatzoglou JT, Hegewisch KC, Mote PW. 2013. Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA. J Geophys Res-Atmos 188:1-23. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50843
33. Rutz JJ, Steenburgh WJ, Ralph FM. 2014. Climatological characteristics of atmospheric rivers and their inland penetration over the western United States. Mon Wea Rev 142:905-921. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00168.1
34. St. George S, Ault TR. 2011. Is energetic decadal variability a stable feature of the central Pacific Coast's winter climate? J Geophys Res-Atmos 116:D12102. 6 p. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015325
35. Walsh J, Wuebbles D, Hayhoe K, Kossin J, Kunkel K, Stephens G, Thorne P, Vose R, Wehner M, Willis J, Anderson D, Doney S, Feely R, Hennon P, Kharin V, Knutson T, Landerer F, Lenton T, Kennedy J, Somerville R. 2014. Our changing climate. Chapter 2, In: Melillo JM, Richmond TC, Yohe GW, editors. Climate change impacts in the United States. The third national climate assessment. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Global Change Research Program. p 19-67