Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe

EBioMedicine

Volumn 9, Issue , 2016, Pages 250-256

  Rocklöv, Joacim ^a   Quam, Mikkel Brandon ^a   Sudre, Bertrand ^b   German, Matthew ^c   Kraemer, Moritz U G ^d   Brady, Oliver ^e   Bogoch, Isaac I ^f,g   Liu Helmersson, Jing ^a   Wilder Smith, Annelies ^a,h   Semenza, Jan C ^b   Ong, Mark ⁱ   Aaslav, Kaja Kaasik ^b   Khan, Kamran ^c,f  

^a UMEÅ UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DISEASE PREVENTION AND CONTROL ECDC   (Sweden)

^c ST MICHAEL'S HOSPITAL   (Canada)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

^g UNIVERSITY HEALTH NETWORK   (Canada)

^h NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY   (Singapore)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO   (Canada)

Author keywords

Aedes; Air travel; Climate; Globalization, mosquito; Zika; ZIKV

Indexed keywords

AEDES AEGYPTI; AEDES ALBOPICTUS; ARTICLE; AVIATION; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; DENGUE; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; EUROPE; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HUMAN; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RNA VIRUS; SEASONAL VARIATION; VALIDATION PROCESS; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; ZIKA VIRUS; AEDES; ANIMAL; PHYSIOLOGY; RISK; SEASON; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRANSMISSION; TRAVEL; VIROLOGY; ZIKA VIRUS INFECTION;

AEDES; ANIMALS; EUROPE; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RISK; SEASONS; TRAVEL; ZIKA VIRUS; ZIKA VIRUS INFECTION;

EID: 84991670407     PISSN: None     EISSN: 23523964     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.06.009     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Mosquito maps (ECDC-EFSA, 2016 – VECTORNET) available at: http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/vectors/vector-maps/Pages/VBORNET_maps.aspx < http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/vectors/vector-maps/Pages/VBORNET_maps.aspx> (.
2. Anderson, R.M., May, R., Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. 1991, Oxford University Press.
3. Angelini, R., et al. Chikungunya in north-eastern Italy: a summing up of the outbreak. Euro Surveill., 12, 2007 (E071122 071122).
4. Attar, N., ZIKA virus circulates in new regions. Nat. Rev. Microbiol., 14, 2016, 62, 10.1038/nrmicro.2015.28.
5. Ayres, C.F., Identification of Zika virus vectors and implications for control. Lancet Infect. Dis. 16 (2016), 278–279, 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00073-6.
6. Bellini, R., Carrieri, M., Burgio, G., Bacchi, M., Efficacy of different ovitraps and binomial sampling in Aedes albopictus surveillance activity. J. Am. Mosq. Control Assoc. 12 (1996), 632–636.
7. Bogoch, I.I., et al. Anticipating the international spread of Zika virus from Brazil. Lancet 387 (2016), 335–336, 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00080-5.
8. Brady, O.J., et al. Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission. Parasit Vectors, 7, 2014, 338, 10.1186/1756–3305–7-338.
9. Calvet, G., et al. Detection and sequencing of Zika virus from amniotic fluid of fetuses with microcephaly in Brazil: a case study. Lancet Infect. Dis., 2016, 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00095-5.
10. Cao-Lormeau, V.M., et al. Guillain-Barre Syndrome outbreak associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia: a case-control study. Lancet, 2016, 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00562-6.
11. Chouin-Carneiro, T., V.-R., A., Vazeille, M., Yebakima, A., Girod, R., Goindin, R., Dupont-Rouzeyrol, M., Lourenço-de-Oliveira, R., Failloux, A.B., Differential susceptibilities of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus from the Americas to Zika virus. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 10, 2016, e0004543, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004543.
12. Christofferson, R.C., Zika virus emergence and expansion: lessons learned from dengue and chikungunya may not provide all the answers. Am.J.Trop. Med. Hyg., 2016, 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0866.
13. Clark, G.G., Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in northern Mexico and south Texas: do they really respect the border?. Am.J.Trop. Med. Hyg. 78 (2008), 361–362.
14. Delisle, E., et al. Chikungunya outbreak in Montpellier, France, September to October 2014. Euro Surveill., 20, 2015.
15. Di Luca, M., et al. Experimental studies of susceptibility of Italian Aedes albopictus to Zika virus. Euro Surveill., 21, 2016, 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.18.30223.
16. Dobson, J.E., Bright, E.A., Coleman, P.R., Durfee, R.C., Worley, B.A., LandScan: a global population database for estimating populations at risk. Photogramm. Eng. Remote. Sens., 66, 2000, 9.
17. ECDC. Aedes albopictus, < http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/vectors/mosquitoes/Pages/aedes-albopictus.aspx> (.
18. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Zika virus disease epidemic: preparedness planning guide for diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. 2016, ECDC, Stockholm (2016).
19. Faria, N.R., et al. Zika virus in the Americas: early epidemiological and genetic findings. Science, 2016, 10.1126/science.aaf5036.
20. Foy, B.D., et al. Probable non-vector-borne transmission of Zika virus, Colorado, USA. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 17 (2011), 880–882, 10.3201/eid1705.101939.
21. Funk, S., K. A. J., Camacho, A., Eggo, R.M., Yakob, L., Edmunds, W.J., Comparative analysis of dengue and Zika outbreaks reveals differences by setting and virus. bioRxiv, 2016, 10.1101/043265.
22. Gil, J.F., et al. Spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic tropical city in northern Argentina. Acta Trop. 158 (2016), 24–31, 10.1016/j.actatropica.2016.02.003.
23. Grard, G., Caron, M., Mombo, I.M., Nkoghe, D., Ondo, S.M., Jiolle, D., Fonenille, D., Paupy, C., Leroy, E.M., Zika virus in Gabon (central Africa) — 2007: a new threat from Aedes albopictus?. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 8, 2014.
24. Gulland, A., WHO warns European countries to be on alert for Zika. BMJ, 352, 2016, i753, 10.1136/bmj.i753.
25. Guzzetta, G., et al. Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations. Euro Surveill., 21, 2016, 10.2807/1560–7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199.
26. Haylock, M.R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A.M.G., Klok, E.J., Jones, P.D., New, M., A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 113, 2008, 10.1029/2008JD10201.
27. Jupille, H., Seixas, G., Mousson, L., Sousa, C., Failloux, A.B., Zika virus, a new threat for Europe?. bioRxiv, 2016, 10.1101/048454.
28. Kraemer, M.U., et al. The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Elife, 4, 2015, e08347, 10.7554/eLife.08347.
29. Kucharski, A.J., et al. Transmission dynamics of zika virus in island populations: a modelling analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia outbreak. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 10, 2016, e0004726, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726.
30. Lambrechts, L., et al. Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 108 (2011), 7460–7465, 10.1073/pnas.1101377108.
31. Lessler, J.T., O.C.T., Carcelen, A.C., Konikoff, J.M., Williamson, J., Bi, Q., Kurcika, L.M., Cummings, D.A.T., Reich, N., Chaisson, L.H., Times to key events in the course of Zika infection and their implications: a systematic review and pooled analysis. Bull. World Health Organ., 2016, 10.2471/BLT.16.174540.
32. Li, M.I., Wong, P.S., Ng, L.C., Tan, C.H., Oral susceptibility of Singapore Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Linnaeus) to Zika virus. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 6, 2012, e1792, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001792.
33. Liu-Helmersson, J., Quam, M., Wilder-Smith, A., Stenlund, H., Ebi, K., Massad, E., Rocklöv, J., Climate change and aedes vectors: 21st century projections for dengue transmission in Europe. eBioMedicine, 2016.
34. Liu-Helmersson, J., Stenlund, H., Wilder-Smith, A., Rocklov, J., Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti: effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential. PLoS One, 9, 2014, e89783, 10.1371/journal.pone.0089783.
35. Majumder, M.S., Cohn, E., Fish, D., Brownstein, J.S., Estimating a feasible serial interval range for Zika fever [submitted]. Bull. World Health Organ., 2016, 10.2471/BLT.16.171009.
36. Mansuy, J.M., et al. Zika virus: high infectious viral load in semen, a new sexually transmitted pathogen?. Lancet Infect. Dis., 16, 2016, 405, 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00138-9.
37. Maria, A.T., et al. Zika virus infections in three travellers returning from South America and the Caribbean respectively, to Montpellier, France, December 2015 to January 2016. Euro Surveill., 21, 2016, 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.6.30131.
38. Mlakar, J., et al. Zika virus associated with microcephaly. N. Engl. J. Med. 374 (2016), 951–958, 10.1056/NEJMoa1600651.
39. Musso, D., Cao-Lormeau, V.M., Gubler, D.J., Zika virus: following the path of dengue and chikungunya?. Lancet 386 (2015), 243–244, 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61273-9.
40. Musso, D., et al. Detection of Zika virus in saliva. J. Clin. Virol. 68 (2015), 53–55, 10.1016/j.jcv.2015.04.021.
41. Oster, A.M., et al. Update: interim guidance for prevention of sexual transmission of Zika virus — United States, 2016. MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly Rep. 65 (2016), 323–325, 10.15585/mmwr.mm6512e3.
42. Petersen, E.E., et al. Update: interim guidance for health care providers caring for women of reproductive age with possible zika virus exposure — United States, 2016. MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly Rep. 65 (2016), 315–322, 10.15585/mmwr.mm6512e2.
43. Petersen, L.R., Jamieson, D.J., Powers, A.M., Honein, M.A., Zika virus. N. Engl. J. Med., 2016, 10.1056/NEJMra1602113.
44. Promed, ZIKA virus - BRAZIL: confirmed. http://www.promedmail.org/post/3370768, 2015.
45. 0 and real-time reproduction number from epidemics. R Package Version 1.2–5, 2014 (R).
46. Reiter, P., et al. Texas lifestyle limits transmission of dengue virus. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 9 (2003), 86–89, 10.3201/eid0901.020220.
47. Rodrigues, L.C., Microcephaly and zika virus infection. Lancet, 2016, 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00742-X.
48. Tran, A., et al. A rainfall- and temperature-driven abundance model for Aedes albopictus populations. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 10 (2013), 1698–1719, 10.3390/ijerph10051698.
49. Wallinga, J.L.M., How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci., 274, 2007.
50. WHO, Zika virus technical report. Interim risk assessment for WHO European region. http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/emergencies/zika-virus/technical-reports-and-guidelines-on-zika-virus/zika-virus-technical-report.-interim-risk-assessment-for-who-european-region, 2016.
51. Wilder-Smith, A., et al. The 2012 dengue outbreak in Madeira: exploring the origins. Euro Surveill., 19, 2014, 20718.
52. Wong, P.S., Li, M.Z., Chong, C.S., Ng, L.C., Tan, C.H., Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse): a potential vector of Zika virus in Singapore. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 7, 2013, e2348, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002348.
53. Zammarchi, L., et al. Zika virus infections imported to Italy: clinical, immunological and virological findings, and public health implications. J. Clin. Virol. 63 (2015), 32–35, 10.1016/j.jcv.2014.12.005.