Climate change: Overview of data sources, observed and predicted temperature changes, and impacts on public and environmental health

Global Climate Change and Public Health

Volumn , Issue , 2014, Pages 31-49

  Levinson, David H ^a   Fettig, Christopher J ^b  

^a USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

^b PACIFIC SOUTHWEST RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic induced changes; Change in surface temperature; Changing distribution of conifers; Climateinduced forest mortality; Forest health; Phytophagous insects

Indexed keywords

EID: 84991352036     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-8417-2_3     Document Type: Chapter

References (71)

1. Rosenzweig C, Casassa G, Imeson A, Karoly DJ, Liu C, Menzel A, Rawlins S, Root TL, Seguin B, Tryjanowski P. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE, editors. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 79-131.
2. Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Klein Tank A, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci M, Soden B, Zhai P. Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL, editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007.
3. Karl TR, Melillo JM, Peterson TC, editors. Global climate change impacts in the United States. New York: Cambridge University Press; 2009. p. 188.
4. Sanchez-Lugo A, Kennedy JJ, Berrisford P. Surface temperatures. In: State of the climate 2010. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 2011;92:6:S36-7.
5. Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K. Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys. 2010;48, RG4004.
6. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J Geophys Res. 2006;111, D12106.
7. Smith TM, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analyses (1880-2006). J Climate. 2008;21:2283-96.
8. Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R, Ebi KL, Hauengue M, Kovats RS, Revich B, Woodward A. Human health. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE, editors. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 391-431.
9. Vose RS, Easterling DR, Gleason B. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: an update through 2004. Geophys Res Lett. 2005;32, L23822.
10. Kunkel KE, Bromirski PD, Brooks HE, Cavazos T, Douglas AV, Easterling DR, Emanuel KA, Groisman PYa, Holland GJ, Knutson TR, Kossin JP, Komar PD, Levinson DH, Smith RL. Observed changes in weather and climate extremes. In: Karl TR, Meehl GA, Miller CD, Hassol SJ, Waple AM, Murray WL, editors. Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate. Regions of focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A report by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC; 2008.
11. Davis R, Knappenberger P, Novicoff W, Michaels P. Decadal changes in heat related human mortality in the eastern United States. Climate Res. 2002;22:175-84.
12. Davis R, Knappenberger P, Michaels P, Novicoff W. Changing heat related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect. 2003;111:1712-8.
13. Davis R, Knappenberger P, Michaels P, Novicoff W. Seasonality of climate-human mortality relationships in US cities and impacts of climate change. Climate Res. 2004;26:61-76.
14. Menne MJ, Williams CN, Vose RS. The U.S. Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature data, version 2. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 2009;90:993-1007.
15. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao Z-C. Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL, editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007.
16. Morris CJG, Simmonds I. Associations between varying magnitudes of the urban heat island and the synoptic climatology in Melbourne, Australia. Int J Climatol. 2000;20:1931-54.
17. Bates DV. Ambient ozone and mortality. Epidemiology. 2005;16:427-9.
18. D'Amato G, Liccardi G, D'Amato M, Cazzola M. Outdoor air pollution, climatic changes and allergic bronchial asthma. Eur Respir J. 2002;20:763-76.
19. Weber RW. Mother nature strikes back: global warming, homeostasis, and implications for allergy. Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol. 2002;88:251-2.
20. Beggs PJ. Impacts of climate change on aeroallergens: past and future. Clin Exp Allergy. 2004;34:1507-13.
21. Rybnicek O, Jaeger S. Ambrosia (ragweed) in Europe. ACI International. 2001;13:60-6.
22. Huynen M, Menne B. Phenology and human health: allergic disorders. Report of a WHO meeting in Rome, Italy, 16-17 Jan 2003. Health and Global Environmental Series EUR/03/5036791. Copenhagen: World Health Organization; 2003. p. 64.
23. Taramarcaz P, Lambelet B, Clot B, Keimer C, Hauser C. Ragweed (Ambrosia) progression and its health risks: will Switzerland resist this invasion? Swiss Med Wkly. 2005;135:538-48.
24. Cecchi L, Morabito M, Domeneghetti P, Crisci MA, Onorari M, Orlandini S. Long distance transport of ragweed pollen as a potential cause of allergy in central Italy. Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol. 2006;96:86-91.
25. Wan SQ, Yuan T, Bowdish S, Wallace L, Russell SD, Luo YQ. Response of an allergenic species Ambrosia psilostachya (Asteraceae), to experimental warming and clipping: implications for public health. Am J Bot. 2002;89:1843-6.
26. 2 -enriched atmospheres. Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol. 2002;88:279-82.
27. 2 concentration. Funct Plant Biol. 2005;32:667-70.
28. Ziska LH, Emche SD, Johnson EL, George K, Reed DR, Sicher RC. Alterations in the production and concentration of selected alkaloids as a function of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature: implications for ethno-pharmacology. Glob Chang Biol. 2005;11:1798-807.
29. Rogers C, Wayne P, Macklin E, Muilenberg M, Wagner C, Epstein P, Bazzaz F. Interaction of the onset of spring and elevated atmospheric CO2 on ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) pollen production. Environ Health Perspect. 2006;114:865-9.
30. Bonan GD. Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science. 2009;320:1444-9.
31. Kurz WA, Apps MJ, Stocks BJ, Volney WJ. Global climate change: disturbance regimes and biospheric feedbacks of temperate and boreal forests. In: Woodwell GM, Mackenzie FT, editors. Biotic feedbacks in the global climatic system: will the warming feed the warming? Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1995.
32. Stocks BJ, Lee BS, Martell DL. Some potential carbon budget implications of fire management in the boreal forest. In: Apps MJ, Price DT, editors. Forest ecosystems, forest management and the global carbon cycle. Berlin: Springer; 1996.
33. Kurz WA, Dymond CC, Stinson G, Rampley GJ, Neilson ET, Carroll AL, Ebata T, Safranyik L. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature. 2008;452:987-90.
34. White PS, Pickett STA. The ecology of natural disturbance and patch dynamics. Orlando:Academic; 1985.
35. Folke C, Carpenter S, Walker B, Scheffer M, Elmqvist T, Gunderson L, Holling CS. Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Ann Rev Ecol Evol Syst. 2004;35:557-81.
36. Schelhass MJ, Nabuurs GJ, Schuck A. Natural disturbances in the European forests in the 19th and 20th centuries. Glob Chang Biol. 2003;9:1620-33.
37. Youngblood A, Max T, Coe K. Stand structure in eastside old-growth ponderosa pine forests of Oregon and northern California. For Ecol Manage. 2004;199:191-217.
38. Ritchie MW, Skinner CN, Hamilton TA. Probability of tree survival after wildfire in an interior pine forest of northern California: effects of thinning and prescribed fire. For Ecol Manage. 2007;247:200-8.
39. Stephens SL, McIver JD, Boerner REJ, Fettig CJ, Fontaine JB, Hartsough BR, Kennedy P, Schwilk DW. Effects of forest fuel reduction treatments in the United States. Bioscience. 2012;62:549-60.
40. Bhatti JS, Lal R, Apps MJ, Price MA. Climate change and managed ecosystems. Boca Raton, FL: CRC; 2006.
41. Shugart HH. A theory of forest dynamics: the ecological implications of forest succession models. New York, NY: Springer; 2003.
42. IPCC. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL, editors. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2007.
43. Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Kitzberger T, Rigling A, Breshears DD, Hogg EH, Gonzalez P, Fensham R, Zhangm Z, Castro J, Demidova N, Lim JH, Allard G, Running SW, Semerci A, Cobb N. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manage. 2010;259:660-84.
44. Martinez-Vilata J, Lloret F, Breshears DD. Drought-induced forest decline: causes, scope and implications. Biol Lett. 2012;8:689-91.
45. Manion PD. Tree disease concepts. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall; 1981.
46. Seager R, Ting M, Held I, Kushnir Y, Lu J, Vecchi G, Huang HP, Harnik N, Leetmaa A, Lau NC, Li C, Velez J, Naik N. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science. 2007;316:1181-4.
47. Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science. 2000;289:2068-74.
48. Brunsfeld SJ, Sullivan J, Soltis DE, Soltis PS. Comparative phylogeography of northwestern North America: a synthesis. In: Antonovics J, Silvertown J, editors. Integrating ecology and evolution in a spatial context. Wiliston, VT: Blackwell; 2001.
49. Godbout J, Fazekas A, Newton CH, Yeh FC. Glacial vicariance in the Pacific Northwest: evidence from a lodgepole pine mitochondrial DNA minisatellite for multiple genetically distinct and widely separated refugia. Mol Ecol. 2008;17:2463-75.
50. McKenney DW, Pedlar JH, Lawrence K, Campbell K, Hutchinson MF. Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. Bioscience. 2007;57:939-48.
51. Rehfeldt GE, Crookston NL, Warwell MV, Evans JS. Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States. Int J Plant Sci. 2006;167:1123-50.
52. Mattson Jr WJ, Addy ND. Phytophagous insects as regulators of forest primary production. Science. 1975;90:515-22.
53. Schowalter TD. Insect herbivore relationship to the state of the host plant: biotic regulation of ecosystem nutrient cycling through ecological succession. Oikos. 1981;37:126-30.
54. Fettig CJ, Klepzig KD, Billings RF, Munson AS, Nebeker TE, Negrón JF, Nowak JT. The effectiveness of vegetation management practices for prevention and control of bark beetle infestations in coniferous forests of the western and southern United States. For Ecol Manage. 2007;238:24-53.
55. Coulson RN, Stephen FM. Impacts of insects in forest landscapes: implications for forest health management. In: Payne TD, editor. Invasive forest insects, introduced forest trees, and altered ecosystems: ecological pest management in global forests of a changing world. New York: Springer; 2006.
56. Bentz BJ, Régnière J, Fettig CJ, Hansen EM, Hayes JL, Hicke JA, Kelsey RG, Lundquist J, Negrón JF, Seybold SJ. Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. Bioscience. 2010;60:602-13.
57. Carnicera J, Colla M, Ninyerolac M, Pons X, Sánchez G, Peñuelasa J. Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011;108:1474-8.
58. Büntgen U, Frank D, Liebhold A, Johnson D, Carrer M, Urbinati C, Grabner M, Nicolussi K, Levanic T, Esper J. Three centuries of insect outbreaks across the European Alps. New Phytol. 2009;182:929-41.
59. Bentz BJ, Allen CD, Ayres M, Berg E, Carroll A, Hansen M, Hicke J, Joyce L, Logan J, MacFarlane W, MacMahon J, Munson AS, Negrón JF, Paine TD, Powell J, Raffa KF, Régnière J, Reid M, Romme W, Seybold SJ, Six DL, Tomback D, Vandygriff J, Veblen T, White M, Witcosky J, Wood DL. Bark beetle outbreaks in western North America: causes and consequences. Salt Lake City: University of Utah Press; 2009.
60. Powell JA, Logan JA. Insect seasonality-circle map analysis of temperature-driven life cycles. Theor Popul Biol. 2005;67:161-79.
61. Berg EE, Henry JD, Fastie CL, De Volder AD, Matsuoka SM. Spruce beetle outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, and Kluane National Park and Reserve, Yukon Territory: relationship to summer temperatures and regional differences in disturbance regimes. For Ecol Manage. 2006;227:219-32.
62. Evangelista PH, Kumar S, Stohlgren TJ, Young NE. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US. For Ecol Manage. 2011;262:307-16.
63. Sturrock RN, Frankel SJ, Brown AV, Hennon PE, Kliejunas JT, Lewis KJ, Worrall JJ, Woods AJ. Climate change and forest diseases. Plant Pathol. 2011;60:133-49.
64. Sinclair WA, Lyon HH, Johnson WT. Diseases of trees and shrubs. Ithaca: Cornell University Press; 1987.
65. Venette RC. Implication of global climate change on the distribution and activity of Phytophthora ramorum . In: McManus KA, Gottschalk KW, editors. Proceedings of the 20th U.S. Department of Agriculture Interagency Research Forum on Invasive Species 2009. NRSP-51, 58-9. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station; 2009.
66. Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science. 2006;313:940-3.
67. Jenkins MJ, Hebertson E, Page W, Jorgensen CA. Bark beetles, fuels, fires and implications for forest management in the Intermountain West. For Ecol Manage. 2008;254:16-34.
68. Allan BF, Keesing F, Ostfeld R. Effect of forest fragmentation on Lyme disease risk. Conserv Biol. 2003;17:267-72.
69. McDowell NG, Pockman WT, Allen C, Breshears DD, Cobb N, Kolb T, Plaut J, Sperry J, West A, Williams D, Yepez EA. Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought? New Phytol. 2008;178:719-39.
70. Peterson DL, Millar CI, Joyce LA, Furniss MJ, Haolosky JE, Neilson RP, Morelli TL. Responding to climate change on national forests: a guidebook for developing adaptation options. PNW-GTR-855. Portland, OR: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station; 2011.
71. Smith TM, Reynolds RW. A global merged land-air-sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997). Journal of Climate, 2005; 18: 2021-36 (doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3362.1 ).