Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate-altering pollutants

Earth's Future

Volumn 4, Issue 8, 2016, Pages 373-380

  Shindell, Drew T ^a  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

climate change; CO2 fertilization; crop yield; methane; ozone

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION; CARBON DIOXIDE; CROP YIELD; DECISION MAKING; EMISSION INVENTORY; FOOD SECURITY; HYDROFLUOROCARBON; METHANE; OZONE; POLLUTANT SOURCE;

EID: 84987880900     PISSN: None     EISSN: 23284277     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000377     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Avnery, S., D. L. Mauzerall, J. Liu, and L. W. Horowitz (2011), Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 1. Year 2000 crop production losses and economic damage, Atmos. Environ., 45(13), 2284–2296, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.11.045.
2. Boucher, O., P. Friedlingstein, B. Collins, and K. P. Shine (2009), The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 044007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044007.
3. Cassman, K. G. (1999), Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 96(11), 5952–5959, doi:10.1073/pnas.96.11.5952.
4. Challinor, A. J., J. Watson, D. B. Lobell, S. M. Howden, D. R. Smith, and N. Chhetri (2014), A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation, Nat. Clim. Change, 4(4), 287–291, doi:10.1038/nclimate2153.
5. Collins, M., et al. (2013a), Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K. and New York.
6. Collins, W. J., M. M. Fry, H. Yu, J. S. Fuglestvedt, D. T. Shindell, and J. J. West (2013b), Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13(5), 2471–2485, doi:10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013.
7. Delucchi, M. A., and M. Z. Jacobson (2011), Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power. Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies, Energy Policy, 39, 1170–1190, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.045.
8. Fang, X. K., G. J. M. Velders, A. R. Ravishankara, M. J. Molina, J. X. Hu, and R. G. Prinnt (2016), Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in China: an inventory for 2005–2013 and projections to 2050, Environ. Sci. Technol., 50(4), 2027–2034, doi:10.1021/acs.est.5b04376.
9. Forster, P., et al. (2007), Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, edited by S. Solomon, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
10. Greenwald, R., M. H. Bergin, J. Xu, D. Cohan, G. Hoogenboom, and W. L. Chameides (2006), The influence of aerosols on crop production: a study using the CERES crop model, Agric. Syst., 89(2–3), 390–413, doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2005.10.004.
11. Gregory, P. J., S. N. Johnson, A. C. Newton, and J. S. I. Ingram (2009), Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate, J. Exp. Bot., 60(10), 2827–2838, doi:10.1093/jxb/erp080.
12. Lamarque, J.-F., et al. (2010), Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10(15), 7017–7039, doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010.
13. Leakey, A. D. B. (2009), Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the future of C-4 crops for food and fuel, Proc. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci., 276(1666), 2333–2343, doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.1517.
14. Li, S. A., T. Wheeler, A. Challinor, E. Lin, H. Ju, and Y. L. Xu (2010), The observed relationships between wheat and climate in China, Agric. For. Meteorol., 150(11), 1412–1419, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.07.003.
15. Lobell, D. B., and C. B. Field (2007), Global scale climate – crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 2(1), 014002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002.
16. Luck, J., M. Spackman, A. Freeman, P. Trebicki, W. Griffiths, K. Finlay, and S. Chakraborty (2011), Climate change and diseases of food crops, Plant Pathol., 60(1), 113–121, doi:10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02414.x.
17. Meinshausen, M., et al. (2011), The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Clim. Change, 109(1–2), 213–241, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z.
18. 2O) mitigation in intensive corn (Maize) production: an emissions reduction protocol for US Midwest agriculture, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Change, 15(2), 185–204, doi:10.1007/s11027-010-9212-7.
19. 2 threatens human nutrition, Nature, 510(7503), 139–142, doi:10.1038/nature13179.
20. Myhre, G., et al. (2013), Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K. and New York.
21. Parry, M., C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, M. Livermore, and G. Fischer (2004), Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Change, 14(1), 53–67, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008.
22. Porter, J. R., L. Xie, A. J. Challinor, K. Cochrane, S. M. Howden, M. M. Iqbal, D. B. Lobell, and M. I. Travasso (2014), Food security and food production systems, in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by C. B.e.a. Field, pp. 485–533, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K. and New York.
23. Prather, M. J., C. D. Holmes, and J. Hsu (2012), Reactive greenhouse gas scenarios: systematic exploration of uncertainties and the role of atmospheric chemistry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09803, doi:10.1029/2012GL051440.
24. Rosenzweig, C., et al. (2014), Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 111(9), 3268–3273, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222463110.
25. Samset, B. H., et al. (2016), Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multimodel study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2782–2791, doi:10.1002/2016GL068064.
26. Shindell, D. T. (2015), The social cost of atmospheric release, Clim. Change, 130(2), 313–326, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1343-0.
27. Shindell, D. T., G. Faluvegi, N. Bell, and G. A. Schmidt (2005), An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04803, doi:10.1029/2004GL021900.
28. Shindell, D. T., G. Faluvegi, D. M. Koch, G. A. Schmidt, N. Unger, and S. E. Bauer (2009), Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions, Science, 326, 716–718, doi:10.1126/science.1174760.
29. Shindell, D., et al. (2012), Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security, Science, 335, 183–189, doi:10.1126/science.1210026.
30. Shindell, D., Y. Lee, and G. Faluvegi (2016), Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2°C, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 503–507, doi:10.1038/nclimate2935.
31. Tubiello, F. N., J. F. Soussana, and S. M. Howden (2007), Crop and pasture response to climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 104(50), 19686–19690, doi:10.1073/pnas.0701728104.
32. United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization (2011), Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone, U. N. Environ. Program. World Meteorol. Organ., Nairobi, Kenya 288 pp.
33. Van Dingenen, R., F. J. Dentener, F. Raes, M. C. Krol, L. Emberson, and J. Cofala (2009), The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation, Atmos. Environ., 43, 604–618, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.10.033.
34. Vose, R. S., et al. (2012), NOAA's merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93(11), 1677–1685, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00241.1.
35. Xu, Y., D. Zaelke, G. Velders, and V. Ramanathan (2013), The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13(12), 6083–6089, doi:10.5194/acp-13-6083-2013.