The relative contribution of climate variability and vector control coverage to changes in malaria parasite prevalence in Zambia 2006-2012

Parasites and Vectors

Volumn 9, Issue 1, 2016, Pages

  Bennett, Adam ^a,b   Yukich, Josh ^b   Miller, John M ^c   Keating, Joseph ^b   Moonga, Hawela ^d   Hamainza, Busiku ^d   Kamuliwo, Mulakwa ^d   Andrade Pacheco, Ricardo ^a   Vounatsou, Penelope ^e,f   Steketee, Richard W ^c   Eisele, Thomas P ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b TULANE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c PATH Malaria Control and Evaluation Partnership in Africa (MACEPA)   (Zambia)

^d MINISTRY OF HEALTH   (Zambia)

^e SWISS TROPICAL AND PUBLIC HEALTH INSTITUTE   (Switzerland)

^f UNIVERSITY OF BASEL   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Climate; Geostatistics; Malaria; Vector control

Indexed keywords

RAIN; INSECTICIDE;

ARTICLE; BLOOD SMEAR; CHILD; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTROLLED STUDY; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EL NINO; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INDOOR RESIDUAL SPRAYING; INFANT; INSECTICIDE TREATED NET; MALARIA; MICROSCOPY; POPULATION RESEARCH; PREVALENCE; VECTOR CONTROL; ZAMBIA; ANIMAL; DRUG EFFECTS; FAMILY SIZE; FEMALE; INSECT VECTOR; MALE; MOSQUITO; MOSQUITO CONTROL; PARASITOLOGY; PHYSIOLOGY; PRESCHOOL CHILD; TRANSMISSION; UTILIZATION;

ANIMALS; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CULICIDAE; FAMILY CHARACTERISTICS; FEMALE; HUMANS; INFANT; INSECT VECTORS; INSECTICIDE-TREATED BEDNETS; INSECTICIDES; MALARIA; MALE; MOSQUITO CONTROL; PREVALENCE; ZAMBIA;

EID: 84982839338     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17563305     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/s13071-016-1693-0     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Lim SS, Fullman N, Stokes A, Ravishankar N, Masiye F, Murray CJ, et al. Net benefits: a multicountry analysis of observational data examining associations between insecticide-treated mosquito nets and health outcomes. PLoS Med. 2011;8(9):e1001091.
2. Lengeler C. Insecticide-treated bed nets and curtains for preventing malaria. The Cochrane database of systematic reviews. 2004;2:CD000363.
3. ter Kuile FO, Terlouw DJ, Phillips-Howard PA, Hawley WA, Friedman JF, Kolczak MS, et al. Impact of permethrin-treated bed nets on malaria and all-cause morbidity in young children in an area of intense perennial malaria transmission in western Kenya: cross-sectional survey. AmJTrop Med Hyg. 2003;68(4 Suppl):100-7.
4. Pluess B, Tanser FC, Lengeler C, Sharp BL. Indoor residual spraying for preventing malaria. The Cochrane database of systematic reviews. 2010;4:CD006657.
5. Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Cameron E, Bisanzio D, Mappin B, Dalrymple U, et al. The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015. Nature. 2015;526(7572):207-11.
6. Steketee RW, Sipilanyambe N, Chimumbwa J, Banda JJ, Mohamed A, Miller J, et al. National malaria control and scaling up for impact: the Zambia experience through 2006. AmJTrop Med Hyg. 2008;79(1):45-52.
7. Chizema-Kawesha E, Miller JM, Steketee RW, Mukonka VM, Mukuka C, Mohamed AD, et al. Scaling up malaria control in Zambia: progress and impact 2005-2008. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2010;83(3):480-8.
8. Chizema-Kawesha E, Miller JM, Steketee RW, Mukonka VM, Mukuka C, Mohamed AD, et al. Scaling up malaria control in Zambia: progress and impact 2005-2008. AmJTrop Med Hyg. 2010;83(3):480-8.
9. Cohen JM, Smith DL, Cotter C, Ward A, Yamey G, Sabot OJ, et al. Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes. Malar J. 2012;11:122.
10. Trape JF, Tall A, Diagne N, Ndiath O, Ly AB, Faye J, et al. Malaria morbidity and pyrethroid resistance after the introduction of insecticide-treated bednets and artemisinin-based combination therapies: a longitudinal study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2011;11(12):925-32.
11. Wondji CS, Coleman M, Kleinschmidt I, Mzilahowa T, Irving H, Ndula M, et al. Impact of pyrethroid resistance on operational malaria control in Malawi. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012;109:19063-70.
12. Moiroux N, Gomez MB, Pennetier C, Elanga E, Djenontin A, Chandre F, et al. Changes in Anopheles funestus biting behavior following universal coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets in Benin. J Infect Dis. 2012;206(10):1622-9.
13. Mabaso ML, Kleinschmidt I, Sharp B, Smith T. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and annual malaria incidence in Southern Africa. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2007;101(4):326-30.
14. Jones AE, Wort UU, Morse AP, Hastings IM, Gagnon AS. Climate prediction of El Nino malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania. Malar J. 2007;6:162.
15. Teklehaimanot HD, Lipsitch M, Teklehaimanot A, Schwartz J. Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms. Malar J. 2004;3:41.
16. Hay SI, Guerra CA, Gething PW, Patil AP, Tatem AJ, Noor AM, et al. A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007. PLoS Med. 2009;6(3), e1000048.
17. Samadoulougou S, Maheu-Giroux M, Kirakoya-Samadoulougou F, De Keukeleire M, Castro MC, Robert A. Multilevel and geo-statistical modeling of malaria risk in children of Burkina Faso. Parasites Vectors. 2014;7:350.
18. Thomson MC, Mason SJ, Phindela T, Connor SJ. Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana. AmJTrop Med Hyg. 2005;73(1):214-21.
19. Bennett A, Kazembe L, Mathanga DP, Kinyoki D, Ali D, Snow RW, et al. Mapping malaria transmission intensity in Malawi, 2000-2010. AmJTrop Med Hyg. 2013;89(5):840-9.
20. Noor AM, Kinyoki DK, Mundia CW, Kabaria CW, Mutua JW, Alegana VA, et al. The changing risk of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection in Africa: 2000-10: a spatial and temporal analysis of transmission intensity. Lancet. 2014;383(9930):1739-47.
21. Graves PM, Osgood DE, Thomson MC, Sereke K, Araia A, Zerom M, et al. Effectiveness of malaria control during changing climate conditions in Eritrea, 1998-2003. Trop Med Int Health. 2008;13(2):218-28.
22. Over M, Bakote'e B, Velayudhan R, Wilikai P, Graves PM. Impregnated nets or ddt residual spraying? Field effectiveness of malaria prevention techniques in solomon islands, 1993-1999. AmJTrop Med Hyg. 2004;71(2 Suppl):214-23.
23. Bennett A, Yukich J, Miller JM, Vounatsou P, Hamainza B, Ingwe M, et al. A methodological framework for the improved use of routine health system data to evaluate national malaria control programs: evidence from Zambia. Population Health Metrics. 2014;12(1):30.
24. Giardina F, Kasasa S, Sie A, Utzinger J, Tanner M, Vounatsou P. Effects of vector-control interventions on changes in risk of malaria parasitaemia in sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial and temporal analysis. Lancet Global Health. 2014;2(10):e601-15.
25. MEASURE. Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Available from: http://www.measuredhs.com/.
26. USGS. Famine Early Warning System Network. Available from: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/. [Accessed Mar 2016].
27. USGS. Hydro 1k. Available from: http://eros.usgs.gov/#/Find-Data/Products-and-Data-Available/HYDRO1K. [Accessed Nov 2015].
28. USGS/NASA. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Available from: https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/dataset-discovery/modis/modis-products-table. [Accessed March 2016].
29. Weiss DJ, Bhatt S, Mappin B, Van Boeckel TP, Smith DL, Hay SI, et al. Air temperature suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa 2000-2012: a high-resolution spatiotemporal prediction. Malar J. 2014;13:171.
30. Worldpop. Available from: http://www.worldpop.org.uk/. [Accessed March 2016].
31. Roll Back Malaria Partnership (RBM). Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group (MERG). Available from: http://www.rollbackmalaria.org/architecture/working-groups/merg.
32. Rutstein SO, Johnson K. The DHS Wealth Index. DHS Comparative Reports No. 6. Calverton: ORC Macro; 2004.
33. Hay SI, Guerra CA, Tatem AJ, Atkinson PM, Snow RW. Urbanization, malaria transmission and disease burden in Africa. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2005;3(1):81-90.
34. tataCorp. Stata Statistical Software: Release 13. College Station: StataCorp LP; 2013.
35. Team RC. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2013.
36. R-INLA: INLA; Available from: www.r-inla.org. [Accessed March 2016].
37. ESRI. ArcGIS Desktop: Release 10.2.2. Redlands: Environmental Systems Research; 2014.
38. Ogalla L. Validity of the ENSO-related impacts in eastern and southern Africa. Nairobi: UNEP; 1994.
39. WHO. World Malaria Report 2013. 2013.
40. Okiro EA, Al-Taiar A, Reyburn H, Idro R, Berkley JA, Snow RW. Age patterns of severe paediatric malaria and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum transmission intensity. Malar J. 2009;8:4.
41. O'Meara WP, Mwangi TW, Williams TN, McKenzie FE, Snow RW, Marsh K. Relationship between exposure, clinical malaria, and age in an area of changing transmission intensity. AmJTrop Med Hyg. 2008;79(2):185-91.
42. O'Meara WP, Bejon P, Mwangi TW, Okiro EA, Peshu N, Snow RW, et al. Effect of a fall in malaria transmission on morbidity and mortality in Kilifi, Kenya. Lancet. 2008;372(9649):1555-62.
43. National Malaria Control Centre, Ministry of Health, Zambia. Available from: http://www.nmcc.org.zm/. [Accessed March 2016].
44. Briet OJ, Hardy D, Smith TA. Importance of factors determining the effective lifetime of a mass, long-lasting, insecticidal net distribution: a sensitivity analysis. Malar J. 2012;11:20.
45. Rowe AK, Steketee RW, Arnold F, Wardlaw T, Basu S, Bakyaita N, et al. Viewpoint: evaluating the impact of malaria control efforts on mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Trop Med Int Health. 2007;12(12):1524-39.
46. Gething PW, Patil AP, Hay SI. Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation. PLoS Comput Biol. 2010;6(4), e1000724.
47. Felger I, Maire M, Bretscher MT, Falk N, Tiaden A, Sama W, et al. The dynamics of natural Plasmodium falciparum infections. PLoS One. 2012;7(9), e45542.
48. Hamainza B, Moonga H, Sikaala CH, Kamuliwo M, Bennett A, Eisele TP, et al. Monitoring, characterization and control of chronic, symptomatic malaria infections in rural Zambia through monthly household visits by paid community health workers. Malar J. 2014;13:128.