The spatially varying influence of humans on fire probability in North America

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 11, Issue 7, 2016, Pages

  Parisien, Marc André ^a   Miller, Carol ^b   Parks, Sean A ^b   Delancey, Evan R ^a,c   Robinne, Francois Nicolas ^c   Flannigan, Mike D ^c  

^a NORTHERN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^b USDA Forest Service Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA   (Canada)

Author keywords

anthropogenic influence; climate; lightning; North America; topography; Wildfire

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; LIGHTNING; POPULATION STATISTICS; PROBABILITY; TOPOGRAPHY;

ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE; CLIMATE; EXPLANATORY VARIABLES; NORTH AMERICA; POPULATION DENSITIES; SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS; SPATIO-TEMPORAL SCALE; WILDFIRE;

FIRES;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; FIRE MANAGEMENT; HOMINID; LIGHTNING; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; PROBABILITY; SPATIAL VARIATION; TOPOGRAPHY; WILDFIRE;

CANADA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84980357155     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075005     Document Type: Article

References (83)

1. Archibald S, Staver A C and Levin S A 2012 Evolution of human-driven fire regimes in Africa Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109 847-52
2. Balch J K, Bradley B A, D'Antonio C and Gomez-Dans J 2013 Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980-2009) Glob. Change Biol. 19 173-83
3. Balk D L, Deichmann U, Yetman G, Pozzi F, Hay S I and Nelson A 2006 Determining global population distribution: methods, applications and data Adv. Parasitol. 62 119-56
4. Bistinas I, Oom D, Sá A C, Harrison S P, Prentice I C and Pereira J M 2013 Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales PloS One 8 e81188
5. Bowman D M et al 2011 The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth J. Biogeogr. 38 2223-36
6. Bradstock R A 2009 Effects of large fires on biodiversity in south-eastern Australia: disaster or template for diversity? Int. J. Wildland Fire 17 809-22
7. Brown K J, Clark J S, Grimm E C, Donovan J J, Mueller P G, Hansen B C S and Stefanova I 2005 Fire cycles in North American interior grasslands and their relation to prairie drought Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102 8865-70
8. Carcaillet C, Ali A A, Blarquez O, Genries A, Mourier B and Bremond L 2009 Spatial variability of fire history in subalpine forests: from natural to cultural regimes Ecoscience 16 1-12
9. Cardille J A and Lambois M 2010 From the redwood forest to the Gulf Stream waters: human signature nearly ubiquitous in representative US landscapes Front. Ecol. Environ. 8 130-4
10. Cardille J A, Ventura S J and Turner M G 2001 Environmental and social factors influencing wildfires in the Upper Midwest, United States Ecol. Appl. 11 111-27
11. Christian H J et al 2003 Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical Transient Detector J. Geophys. Res. 108 4005
12. Clark J S and Royall P D 1996 Local and regional sediment charcoal evidence for fire regimes in presettlement north-eastern North America J. Ecol. 365 382
13. Cochrane M A 2003 Fire science for rainforests Nature 421 913-9
14. Collins S L and Wallace L L (ed) 1990 Fire in North American Tallgrass Prairies (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press)
15. Cumming S G 2005 Effective fire suppression in boreal forests Can. J. For. Res. 35 772-86
16. Dissing D and Verbyla D L 2003 Spatial patterns of lightning strikes in interior Alaska and their relations to elevation and vegetation Can. J. For. Res. 33 770-82
17. Eidenshink J, Schwind B, Brewer K, Zhu Z-L, Quayle B and Howard S 2007 A project for monitoring trends in burn severity Fire Ecology 3 3-21
18. Elith J, Phillips S J, Hastie T, Dudík M, Chee Y E and Yates C J 2011 A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists Divers. Distrib. 17 43-57
19. ESRI 2008 Tele Atlas North America: StreetMap 2008 North America (Redlands, California: ESRI)
20. Evans J S, Oakleaf J, Cushman S and Theobald D 2014 An ArcGIS Toolbox for Surface Gradient and Geomorphometric Modeling, version 2.0-0 (http://evansmurphywixcom/evansspatial)
21. Finney M, Grenfell I C and McHugh C W 2009 Modeling containment of large wildfires using generalized linear mixed-model analysis Forest Sci. 55 249-55
22. Flannigan M D, Krawchuk M A, de Groot W J, Wotton B M and Gowman L M 2009 Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire Int. J. Wildland Fire 18 483-507
23. Flannigan M D, Logan K A, Amiro B D, Skinner W R and Stocks B J 2005 Future area burned in Canada Clim. Change 72 1-16
24. Friedl M A, Sulla-Menashe D, Tan B, Schneider A, Ramankutty N, Sibley A and Huang X 2010 MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets Remote Sens. Environ. 114 168-82
25. Fréjaville T and Curt T 2015 Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in fire regime and climate: defining the pyroclimates of south-eastern France (Mediterranean Basin) Clim. Change 129 239-51
26. Girardin M P, Ali A A, Carcaillet C, Blarquez O, Hély C, Terrier A, Genries A and Bergeron Y 2013 Vegetation limits the impact of a warm climate on boreal wildfires New Phytol. 199 1001-11
27. Gralewicz N J, Nelson T A and Wulder M A 2012 Factors influencing national scale wildfire susceptibility in Canada Forest Ecol. Manage. 265 20-9
28. Guyette R P, Muzika R M and Dey D C 2002 Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime Ecosystems 5 472-86
29. Guyette R P, Stambaugh M C, Dey D C and Muzika R M 2012 Predicting fire frequency with chemistry and climate Ecosystems 15 322-35
30. Haire S L, McGarigal K and Miller C 2013 Wilderness shapes contemporary fire size distributions across landscapes of the western United States Ecosphere 4 15
31. Hantson S, Lasslop G, Kloster S and Chuvieco E 2015 Anthropogenic effects on global mean fire size Int. J. Wildland Fire 24 589-96
32. Hawbaker T J, Radeloff V C, Stewart S I, Hammer R B, Keuler N S and Clayton M K 2013 Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States Ecol. Appl. 23 565-82
33. Higuera P E, Abatzoglou J T, Littell J S and Morgan P 2015 The changing strength and nature of fire-climate relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA, 1902-2008 PloS One 10 e0127563
34. Johnson E A, Miyanishi K and Bridge S R J 2001 Wildfire regime in the boreal forest and the idea of suppression and fuel buildup Conserv. Biol. 15 1554-7
35. Kasischke E S and Turetsky M R 2006 Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region - spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L09703
36. Keane R E, Ryan K C, Veblen T T, Allen C D, Logan J A and Hawkes B 2002 The cascading effects of fire exclusion in Rocky Mountain ecosystems Rocky Mountain Futures: an Ecological Perspective ed J Baron (Washington, DC: Island) pp 133-52
37. Keeley J E, Bond W J, Bradstock R A, Pausas J G and Rundel P W 2011 Fire in Mediterranean Ecosystems: Ecology, Evolution and Management (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
38. Knorr W, Kaminski T, Arneth A and Weber U 2014 Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale Biogeosciences 11 1085-102
39. Kraaij T, Cowling R M and van Wilgen B W 2013 Lightning and fire weather in eastern coastal fynbos shrublands: seasonality and long-term trends Int. J. Wildland Fire 22 288-95
40. Krawchuk M A, Moritz M A, Parisien M A, Van Dorn J and Hayhoe K 2009 Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire PloS One 4 pe5102
41. Lavorel S, Flannigan M D, Lambin E F and Scholes M C 2007 Vulnerability of land systems to fire: interactions among humans, climate, the atmosphere, and ecosystems Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Change 12 33-53
42. Le Page Y, Oom D, Silva J, Jönsson P and Pereira J 2010 Seasonality of vegetation fires as modified by human action: observing the deviation from eco-climatic fire regimes Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19 575-88
43. Liu C, Berry P M, Dawson T P and Pearson R G 2005 Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions Ecography 28 385-393
44. Liu Z and Wimberly M C 2015 Climatic and landscape influences on fire regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the western United States PLoS One 10 pe0140839
45. Marlon J R, Bartlein P J, Carcaillet C, Gavin D G, Harrison S P, Higuera P E, Joos F, Power M J and Prentice I C 2008 Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia Nat. Geosci. 1 697-702
46. Martell D L and Sun H 2008 The impact of forest fire suppression, vegetation and weather on burned area in Ontario Can. J. For. Res. 38 1547-63
47. McWethy D B et al 2013 A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 22 900-12
48. Miller J D, Collins B M, Lutz J A, Stephens S L, van Wagtendonk J W and Yasuda D A 2012 Differences in wildfires among ecoregions and land management agencies in the Sierra Nevada region, California, USA Ecosphere 3 80
49. Moritz M A, Moody T J, Krawchuk M A, Hughes M and Hall A 2010 Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 L04801
50. Mouillot F and Field C B 2005 Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1 × 1 fire history reconstruction for the 20th century Glob. Change Biol. 11 398-420
51. Nowacki G J and Abrams M D 2008 The demise of fire and 'mesophication' of forests in the eastern United States BioScience 58 123-38
52. Parisien M-A and Moritz M A 2009 Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales Ecol. Monog. 79 127-54
53. Parisien M-A, Parks S A, Krawchuk M A, Flannigan M D, Bowman L M and Moritz M A 2011 Scale-dependent factors controlling area burned in boreal Canada Ecol. Appl. 21 789-805
54. Parisien M-A, Peters V S, Wang Y, Little J M, Bosch E M and Stocks B J 2006 Spatial patterns of forest fires in Canada 1980-1999 Int. J. Wildland Fire 15 361-74
55. Parisien M-A, Snetsinger S, Greenberg J A, Nelson C R, Schoennagel T, Dobrowski S Z and Moritz M A 2012 Spatial variability in wildfire probability across the western United States Int. J. Wildland Fire 21 313-27
56. Parks S A, Miller C, Parisien M-A, Holsinger L M, Dobrowski S Z and Abatzoglou J 2015 Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States 1984-2012 Ecosphere 6 13
57. Parks S A, Parisien M-A, Miller C and Dobrowski S Z 2014 Fire activity and severity in the western US vary along proxy gradients representing fuel amount and fuel moisture PLoS One 9 e99699
58. Pausas J G and Keeley J E 2009 A burning story: the role of fire in the history of life BioScience 59 593-601
59. Perry G L, Wilmshurst J M, McGlone M S and Napier A 2012 Reconstructing spatial vulnerability to forest loss by fire in pre-historic New Zealand Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 21 1029-41
60. Phillips S J, Anderson R P and Schapire R E 2006 Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions Ecol. Model. 190 231-59
61. Ruffault J and Mouillot F 2015 How a new fire-suppression policy can abruptly reshape the fire-weather relationship Ecosphere 6 19
62. Sanderson E W, Jaiteh M, Levy M A, Redford K H, Wannebo A V and Woolmer G 2002 The human footprint and the last of the wild Bioscience 52 891-904
63. Slocum M G, Platt W J, Beckage B, Panko B and Lushine J B 2007 Decoupling natural and anthropogenic fire regimes: a case study in Everglades National Park, Florida Nat. Area J. 27 41-55
64. Stephens S L 2005 Forest fire causes and extent on United States Forest Service lands Int. J. Wildland Fire 14 213-22
65. Stephens S L, Martin R E and Clinton N E 2007 Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California's forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands For. Ecol. Manage. 251 205-16
66. Stephens S L and Ruth L W 2005 Federal forest fire policy in the United States Ecol. Appl. 15 532-42
67. Stocks B J et al 2002 Large forest fires in Canada 1959-1997 J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. 108 FFR5-1-FFR5-12
68. Sturtevant B R and Cleland D T 2007 Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin Int. J. Wildland Fire 16 398-413
69. Swain A M 1973 A history of fire and vegetation in northeastern Minnesota as recorded in lake sediments Quat. Res. 3 383IN1391-90IN2396
70. Swetnam T W 1993 Fire history and climate change in giant sequoia groves Science 262 885-885
71. Syphard A D, Radeloff V C, Keeley J E, Hawbaker T J, Clayton M K, Stewart S I and Hammer R B 2007 Human influence on California fire regimes Ecol. Appl. 17 1388-402
72. Syphard A D, Radeloff V C, Keuler N S, Taylor R S, Hawbaker T J, Stewart S I and Clayton M K 2008 Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape Int. J. Wildland Fire 17 602-13
73. Terrier A, Girardin M P, Périé C, Legendre P and Bergeron Y 2013 Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires Ecol. Appl. 23 21-35
74. Thonicke K, Spessa A, Prentice I C, Harrison S P, Dong L and Carmona-Moreno C 2010 The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model Biogeosciences 7 1991-2011
75. Vale T 2002 Fire, Native Peoples, and the Natural Landscape (Washington, DC: Island)
76. Waldrop T A, White D L and Jones S M 1992 Fire regimes for pine-grassland communities in the southeastern United States For. Ecol. Manage. 47 195-210
77. Wang T, Hamann A, Spittlehouse D and Murdock T N 2012 ClimateWNA - High-resolution spatial climate data for western North America J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 61 16-29
78. Watts R D, Compton R W, McCammon J H, Rich C L, Wright S M, Owens T and Ouren D S 2007 Roadless space of the conterminous United States Science 316 736-8
79. Weir J M H and Johnson E A 1998 Effects of escaped settlement fires and logging on forest composition in the mixedwood boreal forest Can. J. For. Res. 28 459-67
80. Westerling A L, Gershunov A, Brown T J, Cayan D R and Dettinger M D 2003 Climate and wildfire in the western United States Br. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84 595-604
81. Westerling A L, Hidalgo H G, Cayan D R and Swetnam T W 2006 Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity Science 313 940-3
82. White C A, Perrakis D D B, Kafka V G and Ennis T 2011 Burning at the edge: integrating biophysical and eco-cultural fire processes in Canada's parks and protected areas Fire Ecol. 7 74-106
83. Whitman E, Batllori E, Parisien M-A, Miller C, Coop J D, Krawchuk M A, Chong G W and Haire S L 2015 The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America J. Biogeogr. 42 1736-49