A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies

Population Studies

Volumn 70, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 181-200

  Parr, Nick ^a   Li, Jackie ^a   Tickle, Leonie ^a  

^a MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

ageing; dependency burden; developed countries; labour force; mortality; population projection; support ratio

Indexed keywords

AGING POPULATION; FORECASTING METHOD; LABOR PARTICIPATION; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MODELING; MORTALITY; POPULATION ESTIMATION; POPULATION POLICY; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT;

AUSTRALIA; CANADA; CENTRAL EUROPE; JAPAN; SOUTHERN EUROPE; SWEDEN;

AGED; DEVELOPED COUNTRY; ECONOMICS; ELDERLY CARE; EMPLOYMENT; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HUMAN; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MALE; MORTALITY; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; TRENDS; VERY ELDERLY;

AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; EMPLOYMENT; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HUMANS; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MALE; MORTALITY; OLD AGE ASSISTANCE;

EID: 84978647098     PISSN: 00324728     EISSN: 14774747     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1190029     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. A.J.Auerbach, Alan J. and L.J.KotlikoffLaurence J. 1992. The impact of the demographic transition on capital formation, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 94(2): 281–295. doi: 10.2307/3440453
2. Australian Government. 2010. Australia to 2050: Future Challenges. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia.
3. Australian Productivity Commission. 2013. An ageing Australia: Preparing for the future. Productivity Commission Research Paper. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia.
4. Australian Treasury. 2009. Secure and Sustainable Pension Reform: Age Pension Age. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia.
5. Australian Treasury. 2014. Budget Speech 2014–15. Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia.
6. J.Bijak, Jakub. 2013. Mortality scenarios for 27 European Countries, 2002–2052, in M.Kupiszewski (ed), International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer, pp. 109–123.
7. D.E.Bloom, David E., D.CanningDavid, and G.FinkGunther. 2010. Population aging and economic growth, in M.SpenceMichael and D.LeipzigerDanny (eds), Globalization and Growth: Implications for a Post-Crisis World. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, pp. 297–328.
8. J.Bongaarts, John and T.SobotkaTomas. 2012. A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility, Population and Development Review 38(1): 83–120. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2012.00473.x
9. H.Booth, Heather, J.MaindonaldJohn, and L.SmithLen. 2002. Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline, Population Studies 56(3): 325–336. doi: 10.1080/00324720215935
10. H.Booth, Heather and L.TickleLeonie. 2008. Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods, Annals of Actuarial Science 3(1–2): 3–43. doi: 10.1017/S1748499500000440
11. A.J.G.Cairns, Andrew J. G., D.BlakeDavid, K.DowdKevin, G.D.CoughlanGuy D., and M.Khalaf-AllahMarwa. 2011. Bayesian stochastic mortality modelling for two populations, ASTIN Bulletin 41(1): 29–59.
12. P.Cerone, Pietro. 1987. On stable population theory with immigration, Demography 24(3): 431–438. doi: 10.2307/2061308
13. D.M.Cutler, David M., J.M.PoterbaJames M., L.M.SheinerLouise M., and L.H.SummersLawrence H. 1990. An aging society: opportunity or challenge? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1990(1): 1–56. doi: 10.2307/2534525
14. A.S.Deaton, Angus S. and C.PaxsonChristina. 2004. Mortality, income, and income inequality over time in Britain and the United States, in D.A.WiseDavid A. (eds), Perspectives on the Economics of Aging. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 247–286.
15. T.J.Espenshade, Thomas J., L.F.BouvierLeon F., and W.B.ArthurW. Brian. 1982. Immigration and the stable population model, Demography 19(1): 125–133. doi: 10.2307/2061132
16. Human Mortality Database (HMD). 2013. University of California, Berkeley (USA) and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available: www.mortality.org (accessed: January 2014).
17. R.J.Hyndman, Rob J., H.BoothHeather, and F.YasmeenFarah. 2013. Coherent mortality forecasting: the product-ratio method with functional time series models, Demography 50(1): 261–283. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0145-5
18. A.C.Kelley, Allen C. and R.M.SchmidtRobert M. 2005. Evolution of recent economic–demographic modeling: a synthesis, Journal of Population Economics 18(2): 275–300. doi: 10.1007/s00148-005-0222-9
19. M.Kupiszewski, Marek, J.BijakJakub, and B.NowokBeata. 2006. Impact of future demographic changes in Europe. Central European Forum for Migration Research Working Paper 6/2006.
20. R.D.Lee, Ronald D. and L.R.CarterLawrence R. 1992. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(419): 659–671.
21. R.Lee, Ronald and A.MasonAndrew. 2010. Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition, European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie 26(2): 159–182. doi: 10.1007/s10680-009-9186-x
22. R.D.Lee, Ronald D. and S.TuljapurkarShripad. 2000. Population forecasting for fiscal planning: issues and innovations, in A.J.AuerbachAlan J. and R.D.LeeRonald D. (eds), Demography and Fiscal Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 7–57.
23. R.Lee, Ronald, A.MasonAndrew, and T.MillerTimothy. 2000. Life-cycle saving and the demographic transition in Eastern and Southeastern Asia, Population and Development Review 26(Supp): 194–219.
24. R.Lee, Ronald, A.MasonAndrew, and T.MillerTimothy. 2001. Saving, wealth, and the demographic transition in East Asia, in A.MasonAndrew (eds), Population Change and Economic Development in east Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized. Stanford: Stanford University Press, pp. 155–184.
25. R.Lee, Ronald, A.MasonAndrew, and members of the RTA Network. 2014. Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency and consumption, Science 346(6206): 229–234. doi: 10.1126/science.1250542
26. D.A.Leon, David A. 2011. Trends in life expectancy: a salutary view, International Journal of Epidemiology, 40(2): 271–277. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyr061
27. J.Li, Jackie. 2013. A Poisson Common Factor model for projecting mortality and life expectancy jointly for females and males, Population Studies 67(1): 111–126. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2012.689316
28. J.Li, Jackie. 2014. A quantitative comparison of simulation strategies for mortality projection, Annals of Actuarial Science 8(2): 281–297. doi: 10.1017/S1748499514000153
29. N.Li, Nan and R.LeeRonald. 2005. Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: an extension of the Lee-Carter method, Demography 42(3): 575–594. doi: 10.1353/dem.2005.0021
30. Y.Liu, Yan, A.AraiAsuna, Y.ObayashiYoshihide, K.KandaKoji, E.BoostromEugene, R.B.LeeRomeo B, and H.TamashoroHiko. 2013. Trends of gender gaps in life expectancy in Japan, 1947–2010: associations with gender mortality ratio and a social development index, Geriatrics Gerontology International 13(3): 792–797. doi: 10.1111/ggi.12001
31. B.Mahlburg, Bernard, I.FreundInga, J.C.CuaresmaJesus Crespo, and A.PrskawetzAlexia. 2013. Ageing, productivity and wages in Austria, Labour Economics 22(Supp): 5–15. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2012.09.005
32. P.McDonald, Peter. 2000. Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility, Journal of Population Research 17(1): 1–16. doi: 10.1007/BF03029445
33. P.McDonald, Peter and R.KippenRebecca. 2000. Labour supply prospects in 16 developed countries 2000–2050, Population and Development Review 27(1): 1–32. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00001.x
34. M.Myrskyla, Mikko, J.R.GoldsteinJoshua R., and Y.-H.A.ChengYen-Hsin Alice. 2013. New cohort fertility forecasts for the Developed World: rises, falls and reversals, Population and Development Review 39(1): 31–56. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00572.x
35. OECD. 2014. Pensions at a Glance 2014: OECD and G20 Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing. Available: dx.doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2013-en (accessed: May 2014).
36. N.Parr, Nick and R.GuestRoss. 2014. A method for socially evaluating the effects of long run demographic paths on living standards, Demographic Research 31(11): 275–318. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.11
37. J.H.Pollard, 1973. Mathematical Models for the Growth of Human Populations. London: Cambridge University Press.
38. A.Prskawetz, Alexia and J.SambtJoze. 2014. Economic support ratios and the demographic dividend in Europe, Demographic Research 30(34): 963–1010. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.34
39. A.E.Raftery, Adrian E., J.L.ChunnJennifer L., P.GerlandPatrick, and H.ŠevčíkováHana. 2013. Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries, Demography, 50(3): 777–801. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x
40. A.E.Raftery, Adrian E., N.LalicNevena, and P.GerlandPatrick. 2014. Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy, Demographic Research 30(27): 795–822. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27
41. K.Saczuk, Katarzyna. 2013. Labour force participation scenarios for 27 European Countries 2002–2052, in M.Kupiszewski (eds), International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer, pp. 173–189.
42. P.A.Samuelson, Paul A. 1958. An exact consumption–loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money, Journal of Political Economy 66(6): 467–482. doi: 10.1086/258100
43. S.Scherbov, Sergei, W.C.SandersonWarren C., and M.MamoloMarija. 2014. Quantifying policy trade-offs to support aging populations, Demographic Research 30(20): 579–608. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.20
44. S.Shair, Syazreen, S.PurcalSachi, and N.ParrNick. 2014. Evaluating extensions to coherent mortality forecasting models. Paper presented to the British Society for Population Studies conference, Winchester, UK 8–10 September 2014.
45. V.Skirbekk, Vegard. 2008. Age and productivity potential: a new approach based on ability levels and industry-wide task demand, Population and Development Review 34(Supp.): 191–207.
46. L.Stoeldraijer, Lenny, C.van DuinCoen, L.van WissenLeo, and F.JanssenFanny. 2013. Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands, Demographic Research 29(13): 323–354. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.13
47. L.Tickle, Leonie and H.BoothHeather. 2014. The longevity prospects of Australian seniors: an evaluation of forecast method and outcome, Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance 8(2): 259–292. doi: 10.1515/apjri-2013-0004
48. S.Tuljapurkar, Shripad, N.LiNan, and C.BoeCarl. 2000. A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries, Nature 405(6788): 789–792. doi: 10.1038/35015561
49. United Kingdom Department for Work and Pensions. 2013. Reviewing the State Pension Age. https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/reviewing-the-state-pension-age.
50. United Nations Population Division (UNPD). 2013a. World Population Policies 2013. New York: United Nations.
51. United Nations Population Division (UNPD). 2013b. National Transfer Accounts Manual: Measuring and Analyzing the Generational Economy. New York: United Nations.
52. United Nations Population Division (UNPD). 2015. World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. New York: United Nations.
53. J.G.Williamson, Jeffery G. 2013. Demographic dividends revisited, Asian Development Review 30(2): 1–25. doi: 10.1162/ADEV_a_00013