Trends and sensitivities of low streamflow extremes to discharge timing and magnitude in Pacific Northwest mountain streams

Water Resources Research

Volumn 52, Issue 7, 2016, Pages 4990-5007

  Kormos, Patrick R ^a,b,c   Luce, Charles H ^a   Wenger, Seth J ^d   Berghuijs, Wouter R ^e  

^a ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

^b OAK RIDGE INSTITUTE FOR SCIENCE AND EDUCATION   (United States)

^c NORTHWEST WATERSHED RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

drought; hydrologic drought; precipitation sensitivity; streamflow sensitivity; temperature sensitivity; trend analysis

Indexed keywords

AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CATCHMENTS; DROUGHT; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SYSTEMATIC ERRORS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCES;

AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGES; GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HYDROLOGIC DROUGHTS; RELATIVE SENSITIVITY; STREAMFLOW SENSITIVITIES; TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY; TREND ANALYSIS; WATERRESOURCE MANAGEMENT;

STREAM FLOW;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CATCHMENT; DISCHARGE; DROUGHT; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; LOW FLOW; MAGNITUDE; MOUNTAIN STREAM; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RUNOFF; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SNOWMELT; STREAMFLOW; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TREND ANALYSIS;

PACIFIC NORTHWEST; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84978052452     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2015WR018125     Document Type: Article

References (144)

1. Abatzoglou, J. T. (2011), Influence of the PNA on declining mountain snowpack in the Western United States, Int. J. Climatol., 31(8), 1135–1142, doi:10.1002/joc.2137.
2. Abatzoglou, J. T., D. E. Rupp, and P. W. Mote (2014), Seasonal climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, J. Clim., 27(5), 2125–2142, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00218.1.
3. Adams, H. D., C. H. Luce, D. D. Breshears, C. D. Allen, M. Weiler, V. C. Hale, A. M. S. Smith, and T. E. Huxman (2012), Ecohydrological consequences of drought and infestation-triggered tree die-off: Insights and hypotheses, Ecohydrology, 5, 145–159, doi:10.1002/eco.233.
4. Al-Kaisi, M. M., et al. (2013), Drought impact on crop production and the soil environment: 2012 experiences from Iowa, J. Soil Water Conserv., 68(1), 19A–24A, doi:10.2489/jswc.68.1.19A.
5. Alwin, D. F., and R. M. Hauser (1975), The decomposition of effects in path analysis, Am. Soc. Rev., 40, 37–47.
6. Banerjee, O., R. Bark, J. Connor, and N. D. Crossman (2013), An ecosystem services approach to estimating economic losses associated with drought, Ecol. Econ., 91, 19–27, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.03.022.
7. Barnett, T. P., J. C. Adam, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2005), Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438(7066), 303–309, doi:10.1038/nature04141.
8. Barnett, T., et al. (2008), Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States, Science, 319(5866), 1080–1083, doi:10.1126/science.1152538.
9. Berghuijs, W. R., M. Sivapalan, R. A. Woods, and H. H. Savenije (2014a), Patterns of similarity of seasonal water balances: A window into streamflow variability over a range of time scales, Water Resour. Res., 50, 5638–5661, doi:10.1002/2014WR015692.
10. Berghuijs, W. R, R. A. Woods, and M. Hrachowitz (2014b), A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow, Nat. Clim. Change, 4(7), 583–586, doi:10.1038/nclimate2246.
11. Blöschl, G., and A. Montanari (2010), Climate change impacts-throwing the dice?, Hydrol. Processes, 24(3), 374–381, doi:10.1002/hyp.7574.
12. Blöschl, G., et al. (2007), At what scales do climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows?, Hydrol. Processes, 21(9), 1241–1247, doi:10.1002/hyp.6669.
13. Brown, A., L. Zhang, T. McMahon, A. Western, and R. Vertessy (2005), A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation, J. Hydrol, 310, 28–61, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.12.010.
14. Burn, D., and M. Elnur (2002), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, J. Hydrol., 255(1–4), 107–122, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00514-5.
15. Cade, B., and B. Noon (2003), A gentle introduction to quantile regression for ecologists, Front. Ecol. Environ., 1(8), 412–420, doi:10.2307/3868138.
16. Caissie, D. (2006), The thermal regime of rivers: A review, Freshwater Biol., 51, 1389–1406, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x.
17. Cayan, D. R., S. A. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, J. M. Caprio, and D. H. Peterson (2001), Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82(3), 399–415, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0399:CITOOS>2.3.CO;2.
18. Chang, H., I. Jung, M. Steele, and M. Gannett (2012), Spatial patterns of march and September streamflow trends in pacific northwest streams, 1958-2008, Geogr. Anal., 44(3), 177–201, doi:10.1111/j.1538-4632.2012.00847.x.
19. Chisholm, I., W. Hubert, and T. Wesche (1987), Winter stream conditions and use of habitat by brook trout in high-elevation Wyoming streams, Trans. Am. Fish. Soc., 116(2), 176–184, doi:10.1577/1548-8659(1987)116<176:WSCAUO>2.0.CO;2.
20. Connor, J. D., K. Schwabe, D. King, and K. Knapp (2012), Irrigated agriculture and climate change: The influence of water supply variability and salinity on adaptation, Ecol. Econ., 77, 149–157, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.021.
21. Dai, A. (2011), Drought under global warming: A review, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, Clim. Change, 2(1), 45–65, doi:10.1002/wcc.81.
22. Dare, M., and W. Hubert (2002), Changes in habitat availability and habitat use and movements by two trout species in response to declining discharge in a regulated river during winter, N. Am. J. Fish. Manage., 22(3), 917–928, doi:10.1577/1548-8675(2002)022<0917:CIHAAH>2.0.CO;2.
23. Davis, J., et al. (2015), When trends intersect: The challenge of protecting freshwater ecosystems under multiple land use and hydrological intensification scenarios, Sci. Total Environ., 534, 65–78, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.127.
24. Deidda, R., M. Marrocu, G. Caroletti, G. Pusceddu, A. Langousis, V. Lucarini, M. Puliga, and A. Speranza (2013), Regional climate models' performance in representing precipitation and temperature over selected Mediterranean areas, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17(12), 5041–5059, doi:10.5194/hess-17-5041-2013.
25. Déry, S. J., K. Stahl, R. D. Moore, P. H. Whitfield, B. Menounos, and J. E. Burford (2009), Detection of runoff timing changes in pluvial, nival, and glacial rivers of western Canada, Water Resour. Res., 45, W04426, doi:10.1029/2008WR006975.
26. Dettinger, M. (2014), Climate change: Impacts in the third dimension, Nat. Geosci., 7(3), 166–167, doi:10.1038/ngeo2096.
27. Dijk, A. I. J. M., H. E. Beck, R. S. Crosbie, R. A. M. de Jeu, Y. Y. Liu, G. M. Podger, B. Timbal, and N. R. Viney (2013), The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and human causes and implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1040–1057, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20123.
28. Dittmer, K. (2013), Changing streamflow on Columbia basin tribal lands-climate change and salmon, Clim. Change, 120(3), 627–641, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0745-0.
29. Donohue, R. J., T. R. McVicar, and M. L. Roderick (2010), Assessing the ability of potential evaporation formulations to capture the dynamics in evaporative demand within a changing climate, J. Hydrol., 386(1), 186–197, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.020.
30. Douglas, E., R. Vogel, and C. Kroll (2000), Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation, J. Hydrol., 240(1-2), 90–105, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00336-X.
31. Dunham, J., A. Rosenberger, C. Luce, and B. Rieman (2007), Influences of wildfire and channel reorganization on spatial and temporal variation in stream temperature and the distribution of fish and amphibians, Ecosystems, 10(2), 335–346, doi:10.1007/s10021-007-9029-8.
32. Elsner, M. M., L. Cuo, N. Voisin, J. S. Deems, A. F. Hamlet, J. A. Vano, K. E. B. Mickelson, S. Y. Lee, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2010), Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State, Clim. Change, 102(1-2), 225–260, doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9855-0.
33. Falcone, J. (2011), GAGES-II: Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow, U.S. Geol. Surv., Reston, Va. [Available at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046617.]
34. Falcone, J. A., D. M. Carlisle, D. M. Wolock, and M. R. Meador (2010), GAGES: A stream gage database for evaluating natural and altered flow conditions in the conterminous United States, Ecology, 91(2), 621–621, doi:10.1890/09-0889.1.
35. Ficke, A. D., C. A. Myrick, and L. J. Hansen (2007), Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries, Rev. Fish Biol. Fish., 17(4), 581–613, doi:10.1007/s11160-007-9059-5.
36. Gan, T. Y. (2000), Reducing vulnerability of water resources of Canadian prairies to potential droughts and possible climatic warming, Water Resour. Manage., 14(2), 111–135.
37. Gibson, C., J. Meyer, N. Poff, L. Hay, and A. Georgakakos (2005), Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems, River Res. Appl., 21(8), 849–864, doi:10.1002/rra.855.
38. Godsey, S. E., J. W. Kirchner, and C. L. Tague (2014), Effects of changes in winter snowpacks on summer low flows: Case studies in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, Hydrol. Processes, 28(19), 5048–5064.
39. Golladay, S. W., and J. Battle (2002), Effects of flooding and drought on water quality in gulf coastal plain streams in Georgia, J. Environ. Qual., 31(4), 1266–1272, doi:10.2134/jeq2002.1266.
40. Goode, J. R., et al. (2013), Potential effects of climate change on streambed scour and risks to salmonid survival in snow-dominated mountain basins, Hydrol. Processes, 27(5), 750–765, doi:10.1002/hyp.9728.
41. Groisman, P. Y., R. W. Knight, T. R. Karl, D. R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J. H. Lawrimore (2004), Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations, J. Hydrometeorol., 5(1), 64–85, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0064:CCOTHC>2.0.CO;2.
42. Hansen, Z. K., S. E. Lowe, and W. Xu (2014), Long-term impacts of major water storage facilities on agriculture and the natural environment: Evidence from Idaho, US, Ecol. Econ., 100, 106–118, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.01.015.
43. Hamlet, A., and D. Lettenmaier (2007), Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S., Water Resour. Res., 43, W06427, doi:10.1029/2006WR005099.
44. Hamlet, A. F., P. W. Mote, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2005), Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the Western United States, J. Clim., 18(21), 4545–4561, doi:10.1175/JCLI3538.1.
45. Hantel, M., and L. M. Hirtl-Wielke (2007), Sensitivity of Alpine snow cover to European temperature, Int. J. Climatol., 27(10), 1265–1275, doi:10.1002/joc.1472.
46. Helvey, J. D. (1980), Effects of a north central Washington wildfire on runoff and sediment production, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 16(4), 627–634, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1980.tb02441.x.
47. Henn, B., M. P. Clark, D. Kavetski, and J. D. Lundquist (2015), Estimating mountain basin-mean precipitation from streamflow using Bayesian inference, Water Resour. Res., 51, 8012–8033, doi:10.1002/2014WR016736.
48. Hernandez, E. A., and V. Uddameri (2013), An assessment of optimal waste load allocation and assimilation characteristics in the Arroyo Colorado River watershed, TX along the US–Mexico border, Clean Technol. Environ. Policy, 15(4), 617–631, doi:10.1007/s10098-012-0546-6.
49. Hisdale, H, L. M. Tallaksen, K. Stahl, M. Zaidman, S. Demuth, and A. Gustard (2010), Hydrological drought: Streamflow. in Assessment of the Regional Impact of Droughts in Europe, Tech. Rep. 6, Drought Event Definition, Supplement to Work Package 2 Hydro-meteorological Drought Activity 2.1, edited by H. Hisdale and L. M. Tallaksen, pp. 8–15, Dep. of Geophys., Univ. of Oslo, Oslo, Norway. [Available at http://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/UNIVERSITYofOSLO_Drought_Event_Definition_2000.pdf.]
50. Holden, Z., C. Luce, M. Crimmins, and P. Morgan (2012), Wildfire extent and severity correlated with annual streamflow distribution and timing in the Pacific Northwest, USA (1984-2005), Ecohydrology, 5(5), 677–684, doi:10.1002/eco.257.
51. Horton, R. E. (1932), Drainage basin characteristics, Trans. AGU, 13, 350–361.
52. Huber, P. J. (1967), The behavior of maximum likelihood estimation under nonstandard conditions, paper presented at Fifth Verkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, edited by L. M. LeCam and J. Neyman, pp. 221–23, Univ. of Calif. Press, Berkeley.
53. Iglesias, A., L. Garrote, F. Flores, and M. Moneo (2007), Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean, Water Resour. Manage., 21(5), 775–788, doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9111-6.
54. IPCC (2007), Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, in Contribution of Working Gorup I to the Fourrth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change edited by S. Solomon et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
55. IPCC (2012), Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, in A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by C. B. Field et al., 582 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
56. IPCC (2013), Climate change 2013: The physical science basis, in Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T. F. Stocker et al., 1535 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
57. Isaak, D., C. Luce, B. Rieman, D. Nagel, E. Peterson, D. Horan, S. Parkes, and G. Chandler (2010), Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network, Ecol. Appl., 20(5), 1350–1371, doi:10.1890/09-0822.1.
58. Jain, S., M. Hoerling, and J. Eischeid (2005), Decreasing reliability and increasing synchroneity of western North American streamflow, J. Clim., 18(5), 613–618, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3311.1.
59. Jefferson, A., A. Nolin, S. Lewis, and C. Tague (2008), Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation, Hydrol. Processes, 22(22), 4371–4385, doi:10.1002/hyp.7041.
60. Johnson, F., and A. Sharma (2009), Measurement of GCM skill in predicting variables relevant for hydroclimatological assessments, J. Clim., 22(16), 4373–4382, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2681.1.
61. Jones, R. N., F. H. Chiew, W. C. Boughton, and L. Zhang (2006), Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models, Adv. Water Resour., 29(10), 1419–1429, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.001.
62. Jung, I. W., and H. Chang (2011), Climate change impacts on spatial patterns in drought risk in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 108(3), 355–371, doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0531-8.
63. Knowles, N., M. D. Dettinger, and D. R. Cayan (2006), Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States, J. Clim., 19(18), 4545–4559, doi:10.1175/JCLI3850.1.
64. Koenker, R. (2005), Inference for quantile regression, in Quantile Regression, edited by A. Chesher and M. Jackson, pp. 68–115, Cambridge Univ. Press, N. Y.
65. Koenker, R., and K. Hallock (2001), Quantile regression: An introduction, J. Econ. Perspect., 15(4), 43–56.
66. Kumar, M., R. Wang, and T. E. Link (2012), Effects of more extreme precipitation regimes on maximum seasonal snow water equivalent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20504, doi:10.1029/2012GL052972.
67. Leppi, J., T. DeLuca, S. Harrar, and S. Running (2012), Impacts of climate change on August stream discharge in the Central-Rocky Mountains, Clim. Change, 112(3–4), 997–1014, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0235-1.
68. Lettenmaier, D. P., and T. Y. Gan (1990), Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, California, to global warming, Water Resour. Res., 26(1), 69–86, doi:10.1029/WR026i001p00069.
69. Li, X., L. Li, L. Guo, F. Zhang, S. Adsavakulchai, and M. Shang (2011), Impact of climate factors on runoff in the Kaidu River watershed: Path analysis of 50-year data, J. Arid Land, 3(2), 132–140, doi:10.3724/SP.J.1227.2011.00132.
70. Lins, H. F., and J. R. Slack (2005), Seasonal and regional characteristics of US streamflow trends in the United States from 1940 to 1999, Phys. Geogr., 26(6), 489–501, doi:10.2747/0272-3646.26.6.489.
71. Luce, C. H., and Z. Holden (2009), Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948-2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L16401, doi:10.1029/2009GL039407.
72. Luce, C. H., P. Morgan, K. Dwire, D. Isaak, Z. Holden, and B. Rieman (2012), Climate change, forests, fire, water, and fish: Building resilient landscapes, streams, and managers, Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-290, U.S. Dep. Agric. For. Serv., Fort Collins, Colo. [Available at http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/jfspsynthesis/2/.]
73. Luce, C. H., J. T. Abatzoglou, and Z. A. Holden (2013), The missing mountain water: Slower westerlies decrease orographic enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA, Science, 342(6164), 1360–1364, doi:10.1126/science.1242335.
74. Luce, C. H., V. Lopez-Burgos, and Z. A. Holden (2014a), Sensitivity of snowpack storage to precipitation and temperature using spatial and temporal analog models, Water Resour. Res., 50, 9447–9462, doi:10.1002/2013WR014844.
75. Luce, C. H., B. Staab, M. Kramer, S. Wenger, D. Isaak, and C. McConnell (2014b), Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest, Water Resour. Res., 50, 3428–3443, doi:10.1002/2013WR014329.
76. Luce, C. H., J. M. Vose, N. Pederson, J. Campbell, C. Millar, P. Kormos, and R. Woods (2016), Contributing factors for drought in United States Forest Ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty, For. Ecol. Manage., doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2016.05.020, in press.
77. Lundquist, J. D., M. Hughes, B. Henn, E. D. Gutmann, B. Livneh, J. Dozier, and P. Neiman (2015), High-elevation precipitation patterns: Using snow measurements to assess daily gridded datasets across the Sierra Nevada, California, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 1773–1792, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0019.1.
78. Lutz, E. R., A. F. Hamlet, and J. S. Littell (2012), Paleoreconstruction of cool season precipitation and warm season streamflow in the Pacific Northwest with applications to climate change assessments, Water Resour. Res., 48, W01525, doi:10.1029/2011WR010687.
79. Mantua, N., I. Tohver, and A. Hamlet (2010), Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Clim. Change, 102(1–2), 187–223, doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2.
80. McBryan, T. L., K. Anttila, T. M. Healy, and P. M. Schulte (2013), Responses to temperature and hypoxia as interacting stressors in fish: Implications for adaptation to environmental change, Integr. Comp. Biol., 53(4), 648–659, doi:10.1093/icb/ict066.
81. McVicar, T. R., et al. (2012), Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds: Implications for evaporation, J. Hydrol., 416, 182–205, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.024.
82. Meyer, J., M. Sale, P. Mulholland, and N. Poff (1999), Impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystem functioning and health, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 35(6), 1373–1386, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04222.x.
83. Milly, P. C. D., and K. A. Dunne (2002), Macroscale water fluxes 2. Water and energy supply control of their interannual variability, Water Resour. Res., 38(10), 1206, doi:10.1029/2001WR000760.
84. Milly, P. C. D., and K. A. Dunne (2011), On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration, Earth Interact., 15, 1–14, doi:10.1175/2010EI363.1.
85. Milly, P. C. D., and A. B. Shmakin (2002), Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part I: The land dynamics (LaD) model, J. Hydrometeorol., 3(3), 283–299, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0283:GMOLWA>2.0.CO;2.
86. Milly, P. C. D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. Hirsch, Z. Kundzewicz, D. Lettenmaier, and R. Stouffer (2008), Climate change: Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?, Science, 319(5863), 573–574, doi:10.1126/science.1151915.
87. Momblanch, A., J. Paredes-Arquiola, A. Munné, A. Manzano, J. Arnau, and J. Andreu (2015), Managing water quality under drought conditions in the Llobregat River Basin, Sci. Total Environ., 503, 300–318.
88. Moore, J. N., J. T. Harper, and M. C. Greenwood (2007), Significance of trends toward earlier snowmelt runoff, Columbia and Missouri Basin headwaters, western United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16402, doi:10.1029/2007GL031022.
89. Mosley, L. M. (2015), Drought impacts on the water quality of freshwater systems: Review and integration, Earth Sci. Rev., 140, 203–214, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.11.010.
90. Mote, P. W. (2003), Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(12), 1601, doi:10.1029/2003GL017258.
91. Mote, P. W. (2006), Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in Western North America, J. Clim., 19(23), 6209–6220, doi:10.1175/JCLI3971.1.
92. Mote, P. W., A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2005), Declining mountain snowpack in western north America, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86(1), 39–49, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39.
93. Nash, L., and P. Gleick (1991), Sensitivity of streamflow in the Colorado basin to climatic changes, J. Hydrol., 125(3–4), 221–241, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(91)90030-L.
94. Nayak, A., D. Marks, D. G. Chandler, and M. Seyfried (2010), Long-term snow, climate, and streamflow trends at the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Owyhee Mountains, Idaho, United States, Water Resour. Res., 46, W06519, doi:10.1029/2008WR007525.
95. Ng, H., and J. Marsalek (1992), Sensitivity of streamflow simulation to changes in climatic inputs, Nordic Hydrol., 23(4), 257–272.
96. Nolin, A. W., and C. Daly (2006), Mapping “at risk” snow in the Pacific Northwest, J. Hydrometeorol., 7(5), 1164–1171, doi:10.1175/JHM543.1.
97. Novotny, E., and H. Stefan (2007), Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator of climate change, J. Hydrol., 334(3-4), 319–333, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.10.011.
98. Pierce, D. W., et al. (2008), Attribution of declining western US snowpack to human effects, J. Clim., 21(23), 6425–6444, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1.
99. Prowse, T., and J. Culp (2003), Ice breakup: A neglected factor in river ecology, Can. J. Civ. Eng., 30(1), 128–144, doi:10.1139/l02-040|10.1139/L02-040.
100. Regonda, S., B. Rajagopalan, M. Clark, and J. Pitlick (2005). Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States, J. Clim., 18(2), 372–384, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3272.1.
101. Rind, D., R. Goldberg, J. Hansen, C. Rosenzweig, and R. Ruedy (1990), Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought, J. Geophys. Res., 95(D7), 9983–10004, doi:10.1029/JD095iD07p09983.
102. Risbey, J., and D. Entekhabi (1996), Observed Sacramento Basin streamflow response to precipitation and temperature changes and its relevance to climate impact studies, J. Hydrol., 184(3–4), 209–223, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(95)02984-2.
103. Riseng, C. M., M. J. Wiley, and R. J. Stevenson (2004), Hydrologic disturbance and nutrient effects on benthic community structure in midwestern US streams: A covariance structure analysis, J. N. Am. Benthol. Soc., 23(2), 309–326, doi:10.1899/0887-3593(2004)023<0309:HDANEO>2.0.CO;2.
104. Roderick, M. L., L. D. Rotstayn, G. D. Farquhar, and M. T. Hobbins (2007), On the attribution of changing pan evaporation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17403, doi:10.1029/2007GL031166.
105. Roderick, M. L., F. Sun, W. H. Lim, and G. D. Farquhar (2014), A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1575–1589.
106. Roderick, M. L., P. Greve, and G. D. Farquhar (2015), On the assessment of aridity with changes in atmospheric CO2, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5450–5463, doi:10.1002/2015WR017031.
107. Rood, S., J. Pan, K. Gill, C. Franks, G. Samuelson, and A. Shepherd (2008), Declining summer flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Changing seasonal hydrology and probable impacts on floodplain forests, J. Hydrol., 349(3-4), 397–410, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.11.012.
108. Safeeq, M., and A. Fares (2012), Hydrologic response of a Hawaiian watershed to future climate change scenarios, Hydrol. Processes, 26(18), 2745–2764, doi:10.1002/hyp.8328.
109. Samani, Z., and R. K. Skaggs (2008), The multiple personalities of water conservation, Water Policy, 10(3), 285, doi:10.2166/wp.2008.154.
110. Safeeq, M., G. E. Grant, S. L. Lewis, M. G. Kramer, and B. Staab (2014), A geohydrologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 11(3), 3315–3357, doi:10.5194/hessd-11-3315-2014.
111. Sankarasubramanian, A., R. Vogel, and J. Limbrunner (2001), Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States, Water Resour. Res., 37(6), 1771–1781, doi:10.1029/2000WR900330.
112. Savenije, H. (2004), The importance of interception and why we should delete the term evapotranspiration from our vocabulary, Hydrol. Processes, 18(8), 1507–1511, doi:10.1002/hyp.5563.
113. Schoen, M., M. Small, M. L. DeKay, E. Casman, and C. Kroll (2007), Effect of climate change on design-period low flows in the Mid-Atlantic US, in World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2007: Restoring Our Natural Habitat, edited by K. C. Kabbes, 6830 pp., American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Va. [Available at http://www.cbdr.cmu.edu/papers/pdfs/cdr_061.pdf.]
114. Seneviratne, S. I., et al. (2012), Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment, in Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, edited by C. B. Field et al., pp. 109–230, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U. K., and N. Y.
115. Sheffield, J., and E. F. Wood (2008), Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations, Clim. Dyn., 31(1), 79–105, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z.
116. Slack, J. R., A. M. Lumb, and J. M. Landwehr (1993), Hydroclimatic data network (HCDN): A U. S. Geological Survey streamflow data set for the United States for the study of climate variation, U.S. Geol. Surv. Water Resour. Invest. Rep., 93-4076, pp. 1874–1988.
117. Smakhtin, V. U. (2001), Low flow hydrology: A review, J. Hydrol., 240(3–4), 147–186, doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(00)00340-1.
118. Stewart, I., D. Cayan, and M. Dettinger (2005), Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America, J. Clim., 18(8), 1136–1155, doi:10.1175/JCLI3321.1.
119. Strzepek, K., G. Yohe, J. Neumann, and B. Boehlert (2010), Characterizing changes in drought risk for the United States from climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 5(4), 044012, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/4/044012.
120. Sun, F., M. Roderick, W. Lim, and G. Farquhar (2011), Hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin based on an ensemble derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models, Water Resour. Res., 47, W00G02, doi:10.1029/2010WR009829.
121. Sun, S., P. Wu, Y. Wang, X. Zhao, J. Liu, and X. Zhang (2013), The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China, Sci. Total Environ., 444, 498–507, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.12.016.
122. Sun, Y., F. Tian, L. Yang, and H. Hu (2014), Exploring the spatial variability of contributions from climate variation and change in catchment properties to streamflow decrease in a mesoscale basin by three different methods, J. Hydrol., 508, 170–180, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.004.
123. Tague, C., and G. Grant (2009), Groundwater dynamics mediate low-flow response to global warming in snow-dominated alpine regions, Water Resour. Res., 45, W07421, doi:10.1029/2008WR007179.
124. Tague, C., G. Grant, M. Farrell, J. Choate, and A. Jefferson (2008), Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades, Clim. Change, 86(1–2), 189–210, doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9294-8.
125. Tetzlaff, D., and C. Soulsby (2013), Potential effects of climate change on streambed scour and risks to salmonid survival in snow-dominated mountain basins, Hydrol. Processes, 27(5), 750–765, doi:10.1002/hyp.9728.
126. Thiebaux, H., and F. Zwiers (1984), The interpretation and estimation of effective sample-size, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 23(5), 800–811, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0800:TIAEOE>2.0.CO;2.
127. Thomas, D. S., O. V. Wilhelmi, T. N. Finnessey, and V. Deheza (2013), A comprehensive framework for tourism and recreation drought vulnerability reduction, Environ. Res. Lett., 8(4), 044004, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044004.
128. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1985), Technical support document for water-quality based toxics control, Off. of Water, Washington, D. C., September, 1985. [Available at http://water.epa.gov/scitech/datait/models/upload/2002_10_25_npdes_pubs_owm0264.pdf.]
129. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1986), Quality Criteria for Water: The Gold Book, Washington, D. C. [Available at http://water.epa.gov/scitech/swguidance/standards/criteria/aqlife/upload/2009_01_13_criteria_goldbook.pdf.]
130. U.S. Geological Survey (2012), National Water Information System data available on the World Wide Web, USGS Water Data for the Nation. [Available at http://waterservices.usgs.gov/rest/DV-Test-Tool.html, accessed 6 Dec., 2013.]
131. Van Loon, A. F. (2015), Hydrological drought explained, WIREs Water, 2, 359–392, doi:10.1002/wat2.1085.
132. Van Loon, A. F., and H. Van Lanen (2012), A process-based typology of hydrological drought, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16(7), 1915–1946, doi:10.5194/hess-16-1915-2012.
133. Viviroli, D., H. H. Dürr, B. Messerli, M. Meybeck, and R. Weingartner (2007), Mountains of the world, water towers for humanity: Typology, mapping, and global significance, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07447, doi:10.1029/2006WR005653.
134. Ward, F. A., and M. Pulido-Velazquez (2008), Water conservation in irrigation can increase water use, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 105(47), 18,215–18,220, doi:10.1073/pnas.0805554105.
135. Waring, R. H., and W. H. Schlesinger (1985), Forest Ecosystems. Concepts and Management, 340 pp., Academic, Orlando, Fla.
136. Wenger, S. J., C. H. Luce, A. F. Hamlet, D. J. Isaak, and H. M. Neville (2010), Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics, Water Resour. Res., 46, W09513, doi:10.1029/2009WR008839.
137. Wenger, S. J., N. A. Som, D. C. Dauwalter, D. J. Isaak, H. M. Neville, C. H. Luce, J. B. Dunham, M. K. Young, K. D. Fausch, and B. E. Rieman (2013), Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change, Global Change Biol., 19(11), 3343–3354, doi:10.1111/gcb.12294.
138. Westerling, A., H. Hidalgo, D. Cayan, and T. Swetnam (2006), Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity, Science, 313(5789), 940–943, doi:10.1126/science.1128834.
139. Wolock, D. M. (2003), Base-flow index grid for the conterminous United States, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Rep., 03-263, U.S. Geol. Surv., Lawrence, Kans. [Available at http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/metadata/usgswrd/XML/bfi48grd.xml.]
140. Wolock, D. M., and G. McCabe (1999), Explaining spatial variability in mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States, Clim. Res., 11(2), 149–159, doi:10.3354/cr011149.
141. Woodhouse, C. A., D. M. Meko, G. M. MacDonald, D. W. Stahle, and E. R. Cook (2010), A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 107(50), 21,283–21,288.
142. Woods, R. A. (2009), Analytical model of seasonal climate impacts on snow hydrology: Continuous snowpacks, Adv. Water Resour., 32(10), 1465–1481, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.06.011.
143. Xu, W., S. E. Lowe, and R. M. Adams (2014), Climate change, water rights, and water supply: The case of irrigated agriculture in Idaho, Water Resour. Res., 50, 9675–9695, doi:10.1002/2013WR014696.
144. Zhang, F. Y., L. H. Li, S. Ahmad, and X. M. Li (2014), Using path analysis to identify the influence of climatic factors on spring peak flow dominated by snowmelt in an alpine watershed, J. Mount. Sci., 11(4), 990–1000, doi:10.1007/s11629-013-2789-z.